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Bitcoin – Approaching 2020

December 16, 2019 Published by

Oh how I wish we were seeing the kind of Bitcoin price action that we saw back in December of 2017! Alas, it can’t always be a bull market. However, while reading this post, remember that when looking at investments it is LONG-TERM performance that counts! Everything else is just “noise”.

Let’s fall into the trap of getting lost in some of that noise – just for the hell of it, and thereafter we’ll zoom out and see how the long-term market looks.

All is well

Everything is still going according to plan (almost uncannily so), even if the trend is negative. Counter-intuitively, this is a positive sign: a predictable market is more stable and easier to analyse accurately, it has less chance of giving (good) analysts a shock.

The current market has been incredibly predictable. My post of 27 November (uncreatively titled “Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)”) shows exactly how predictable that market is, and how I am still calling the market today based on analysis that is now five months old. I strongly recommend reading that post as background to this one, it gives a much better indication of the age and accuracy of these predictions, as well as an explanation of what they are based on.

Short-term

The yellow price prediction line seen in the post mentioned above is still in play. Remember: it is a rough indication of expected price movement – a “best guess” scenario and should only be taken as such.

The fact that it is still doing a good job 29 days after its creation is a positive sign. With BTC price sitting where it is right now, we can see that the prediction line is sitting about $500 below it. Again, don’t read too much into that, but – it is likely that price may drop another $500 or so before reaching the turnaround level.

The descending channel (you DID read that post I recommended earlier, didn’t you?) is still the dominant local price-governing pattern.

You can see my faint Fib-levels within the structure of the channel, levels which determine short-term price jumps, but which will ultimately become inconsequential in the long-term. Like other savvy investors, I have been making use of these levels to stack sats when BTC dips to the lowest levels, it helps a little with ROI in the long-term.

Medium-term

Looking at 2019 in isolation, it is noteworthy that despite not being a great year, BTC is up 91.69% from its start-of-year price ($3691.87 on Coinbase at 00:00 GMT on 1 January; measured to time of writing). Annual performance is a trivial and arbitrary figure, but the more traditional financial markets are fascinated by such numbers, so why not ask them how many of their assets can match that figure?

Far more importantly on this chart, we see the triple convergence point of three support lines: medium-term, semi-long-term and long-term. We are just passing the end of that convergence point right now!

An explanation of this convergence point can once again be found in the previous post, though we will cover it briefly on the next chart. The significance of passing this point is that BTC price movement should now turn positive.

Hark. Bit Brain has spoken.

“Turning positive” implies that BTC price will start to move towards the top of the six-month-old descending channel and eventually break through it. For what it’s worth, my charts place that breakout date in the second week of March 2020. Consider that date to be highly flexible, though it shouldn’t happen much later than that.

Long-term

As I said above, this chart gives an idea of where the other two converging lines originate from (the third line of the convergence point being the base of the descending channel). This is why BTC is now crossing a triple-support threshold.

The “Long-term base trendline” is the most important of the three lines by a country mile. It is the only line that will carry and meaningful significance into 2020.

It is critical that BTC does not execute a definitive break through this trendline. At five years old, it has been Bitcoin’s reliable support level for half of BTC’s life, a situation which I deem unlikely to change soon. A small break below it (such as that of late 2015) is fine, but a big break would mean that all bets are off and that I need to go back to the analysis drawing board.

It is worth nothing that long-term BTC trends may curve slightly downwards as opposed to being straight like this trendline is. But beware of taking the majority of curved-line posts too seriously! I’m sure you’ve all seen the popular “stock-to-flow” charts circulating around; it’s a pity they are just very broad and largely useless “predictions” – much like a TA version of “psychic” readings or astrology. Perhaps I’ll write a post to debunk them sometime, or perhaps you can just read these two posts and figure the problem out for yourself: (in addition to the problem of the ridiculously wide channels they use – which still get breached.)

In fact, ENSURE you read those posts, since the economics behind halvings is still ridiculously misunderstood in the crypto space.

Conclusion

Passing the convergence zone today finally puts us back on the path towards higher prices. The mini bull run of May/June did us no favours – prematurely pushing the price of BTC high above the base trendline and causing it to fall for the remainder of the year. That fall should now finally come to an end, though is has already caused further damage (after that caused in 2018) to the altcoin market and its credibility.

I see this as a great time to buy: we are at the (probable) end of a descending channel, near the bottom of that channel and about to hit firm support and an upwards trend. The altcoin market lies in tatters, meaning that many literally unbeatable deals await the brave investor. Having spent a little money on large-cap alts recently, I think that I may be ready to chance a little on smaller cap coins now. The opportunity to buy into genuinely good crypto projects with a total market cap of $1 mil or less is too good to pass up on!

If anyone is going away soon and won’t be reading my blog for a while: I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Please travel safely and don’t do anything silly like drinking and driving. I did some of that in my younger days and it is nothing to be proud of – it’s just incredibly stupid and selfish. Be better than I was.

May Santa bring all of you big bags of cryptocurrencies!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Dear Mister Prime Minister

December 14, 2019 (updated December 14, 2019) Published by

With your election of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it is with great pleasure that I send you my warmest congratulations. I fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that you face and wish you every success in your role. 

The Rt. Honourable Boris Johnson
Prime Minister’s Office
10 Downing Street 
London SW1A 2AA 
United Kingdom

Dear Mister Prime Minister,

With your election of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it is with great pleasure that I send you my warmest congratulations. I fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that you face and wish you every success in your role. 

There is no doubt that his momentous election has been watched with much attention by the international community. It is my sincere hope that our two countries will establish cooperation. I assure you of the support of the Free Republic of Liberland. 

Please accept, Prime Minister the expression of my highest and most cordial consideration.

Most Respectfully,

Vit Jedlicka 

President

Liberland news

December 12, 2019 (updated December 12, 2019) Published by

The Liberland delegation is witnessing launch of the GBO in Norway, Oslo. It will be a key partner for Liberland diplomatic relationships.

Alternative Development Organization is proud to announce the launch of its initiatives on 11 December 2019 at Hotel Continental in Oslo, Norway.With the next decade being more important than ever as humanity is at crossroads to either go with the current model of development or not, ADO has been actively moving forward to redesign the current socio-economic development model by uniting people, governments, and systems for a sustainable world.

It’s a Good Day!

December 11, 2019 Published by

Today is a good day. I’m looking forward to its outcome.

My fight against governments is unending, a daily burden, but one which I undertake willingly.

I pride myself in fighting governments on every front that I possibly can: it doesn’t matter which level of government or even which country’s government I fight. As long as
I am making it hard for tyrants to be tyrants, then I am doing something right.

Today is a good day because, God willing, tonight I will get to confront a government official face to face. Tyrants being what they are, such opportunities are rare. “Democracy”
is only a word, a word which Representative Democracies have become the antithesis of.

I’m not naive, I know that I can’t change a politician. I can’t change a politician, but I may be able to help change politics! I will be in a room of influential people: voters, business elite, political party funders, and I fully intend to make best use of this opportunity to open their eyes.

The groundswell against politics in general is growing large, noticeable large – but that groundswell is generally confined to the lower levels. Richer citizens tend to ignore it,
they have more capacity to absorb tyranny – it doesn’t hurt them much and I doubt that they even notice it much of the time. Tonight I will do my best to enlighten the rich, and I will do this by backing the government
official into a corner, forcing them to expose their lies, greed and alternative agendas.

At least, I’ll make my best efforts to do so.

The rich have much to fear. While the average millionaire is not complicit in the day-to-day tyranny that representative democracies now are, WHEN the torches and pitchforks come out, there is no telling how far down they will go in their quest for vengeance and retribution. The average millionaires would thus do well to
enlighten themselves a little and to sympathise with the plight of those poorer then themselves. When business heavyweights start to pressure political parties and hold them accountable, that can have an immediate positive
effect on communities. No political party wants to deal with the bad press of a large company actively and publicly opposing them. If there is one thing a politician really despises, then it is the truth coming out of the
mouth of a well-known and crespected source.

And so the process continues: continually trying to open the eyes of those who have yet to see, or perhaps don’t want to see.

I’m tired of this fight, I’m really REALLY tired of it. It is a reality that I live 24/7/365, and one which I take seriously. The burden of constantly opposing corrupt governments is rather draining, because there is just so much damn evil to oppose!
I know that my many posts, blogs, emails, discussions etc often go completely ignored – but there is method to my madness.

I saw that earlier this week.

I tend to get a little shunned; not in the nasty “ostracised by the community” kind of way, but more in the “try to avoid him him, he’ll just berate you for voting
and tell you yet again why fiat money is evil” kind of way. People would rather not be around me, because “light conversation” with me tends to become rather heavy, and I won’t let them walk away without
the added burden of what they could be doing to help bring about change.

BUT

I’m right – and they know it.

There is a saying, something along the lines of “Nobody loves a warrior until the enemy is at the gate”. I am such a warrior, in more ways than one, and I wear that lack of love as a badge of pride.

And so it happens, that when the proverbial brown stuff hits the fan, suddenly I find myself to be popular again. That is what happened earlier this week.

Government (in my country) made such a large and obvious mess up, that the usually complacent sheep were temporarily jolted out of their rose-tinted slumber, and they took to social media
en masse to express their disapproval.

The words they used were heart-warming – because I saw them repeating words that I so often speak. You see, when you carry on and on and on until people are sick of you, something
you say sticks in their brains. Deep down they get the nagging feeling that all is not well. When circumstances eventually do become undeniably nasty, a little trigger fires in the back of their minds and they remember your
words.

I have made the most of this opportunity. I did not to welcome the newly awakened with open arms, but rather to chastise them for their regular conduct and to warn them against doing so
again in the future. I’m driving the lesson home. Next time around it they will react quicker and with more conviction…

It doesn’t take a lot of people to oust a tyrannical system of government, but it does take more than we have available at the moment. The longer the sheep keep their heads down and
try to ignore issues, the longer we will all suffer.

It is with that in mind that I go with a smile on my face to tonight’s meeting. I know that the politician stands no chance against me. True, it’s only a big fish in a small
pond, but this particular pond is a relatively large and significant one – the ramifications of losing control of it could have a major ripple
effect for a certain political party and even for my country as a whole. So I will be giving it my all. Wishes of good luck and prayers (irrespective of faith or denomination) are most welcome.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is coming. I absolutely believe in the power of decentralised cryptocurrencies and the revolutionary disruptive effect that they are capable of having on international finance. I
absolutely believe that governments can be starved of funding and can be rendered obsolete by blockchains; both in a financial and in an administrative role.

But Bitcoin is going to take time. The upcoming global stock market crash is not going to automatically result in cryptocurrencies replacing fiat currencies overnight. Sure, it will give
crypto an enormous boost, but this is not the crash that will spell the end of fiat forever, it will only be the beginning of the end.

It is still up to us to fight wherever we can: to fight for what is right – not legal. To fight for true patriotism – not the words and symbols created by politicians. To fight for liberty
and free will, not disguised socialism and “democracies” that aren’t democratic.

The battle is hard and the end is nowhere in sight. But if you and I don’t fight it, who will?

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




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