I went offline for some time. I was trying to get my sh*t together then start my daily posting. Am now back I dont know if things will be the same as it was but lets all hope for the best. Thanks to scripsio for the support they have always been given me. Not like some other curators who just dont know how to manage their members but just get bored and remove members any how. We are all helping each other to get there because of the low in price of the system so if they act like they are on top and dont care about anyone they should continue doing that. And they will one get to know that we dont treat people like that because they will get such treatment not on platform but physical. Long live Scripsio much love….
As BTC grows so it slows. This is a little frustrating to those of us who have grown used to the rapidly changing BTC market of old, but on the other hand, it’s a positive sign of adoption and of maturation.
While on that subject, I would like to remind everybody just how far we’ve come since late 2017 (when BTC was at the height of a major bull run). We may not see the developments taking place on a day-to-day basis, we may not notice how much the market has changed since then, but it HAS!
Think of the primitive wallets you used two years ago. Think of the clunky exchanges and their primitive user interfaces. Think of all the new crypto derivatives products, the regulations which make institutional investment possible, the constant mainstream news coverage. The price doesn’t reflect it, but crypto has made good use of the bear market and subsequent consolidation period. Crypto has grown – something that will stand it in good stead when hype picks up again. For example: Bitcoin’s hash rate is currently about six times what it was when BTC was at its All Time High. Crypto is fully ready for the next bull run, now it’s just a question of waiting for the investors to catch up!
Without further ado, let’s look at some charts:
Forecast:
My last couple of posts on Twitter have looked something like this:
It is my belief that BTC price is forming a bear flag, from which I expect it to drop into the low $7000s, possibly even into the $6000s if the $7000 psychological support level fails to hold.
For this reason I have made the mid-to-low $7000s my “Buy Zone”, while anything in the $6000s is my “Buy Like Crazy Zone”. I do not anticipate a scenario where BTC drops below $6000.
However, my already-published Bear Flag Charts can not be quite correct. I say this because BTC broke below their base this weekend, but then recovered. Analysing this, I have concluded that the most likely scenario is that a bear flag is still forming, and I have adjusted my charts accordingly to incorporate the recent price dip. My latest interpretation of the flag is depicted by the shaded rectangle on the chart below.
The most likely short-term future scenario is now that BTC will climb in price until it reaches the top of the flag again. This will occur at approximately $9000. Thereafter, BTC should drop back to the bottom of the flag and break through into the “Buy Zone” (at least I hope it will). I expect such a downwards break to occur in the last three days of October.
You may have noticed a thin, dotted, horizontal red line at $7600 on the charts, this is merely a price alert that I have set at that level. If it triggers, I will fine-tune my own buy prices, because I’m looking to buy from $7500 downwards.
Accuracy and probability:
My original bear flag was a text book example of a bear flag. For this reason I had fairly high confidence in it, though flag and pennants are never a sure thing. After the adjustment of the flag, it may be that it becomes more of a Descending Channel than a bear flag, but this doesn’t really matter because:
1) The outcome of the two patterns is identical, 2) The two patterns have similar levels of predictive reliability (around 70%).
Unfortunately there are many different possible scenarios that could occur from this point forwards. For this reason it is difficult to confidently predict any specific scenario with certainty. BTC may continue to rise now and break out of the top of the flag – destroying it completely, or it could continue sideways and begin to create some other pattern.
What I have described in this post in my best guess, based on current levels of market hype (low), volume (stagnant), previous price movement patterns and long-term trendlines. I am about 50% sure that BTC will take a dip to the low $7000s/$6000s, find the long-term trendline and then move gradually upwards again. It’s also worth remembering that during times such as these, markets often plunge unexpectedly, followed by a very rapid recovery. Such a price movement may move well beyond the levels predicted, and could be exploited by shrewd traders who have their order prices set to catch it.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
The Liberland team was honored to meet with the CEO and head of labs at @Foursquare! Watch for our appearance on the Local Maximum podcast with @maxsklar#Liberland#UNGA#NYC
Fuji fp-100c is an anologue instant film similar to polaroid. Currently it is no longer in production but you can still buy unopened packs on ebay. its not cheap though, you have to pay 3 times its original value atm. about £4+ per shot.
The images were shot in studio using professional Bowens Gemini studio flash. 2 heads with soft boxes. Camera : Professional Polaroid 600SE (aka the GOOSE) with Mamiya 127mm lens.
The above image is an image transfer, the image is transfered onto Watercolour paper. This is done by only developing the film for 15 seconds before pulling the film apart and laying onto paper, the film is then rolled with a brayer roller for 125 sec. For best result transfer in subdued light or a box to minimise light hitting the sides of the print.
You can also do emulsion lifts with this film. An emulsion lift is where you literally float the emulsion image layer off the film sheet. For this method you develop the film normally the float the film in warm water (40+ degrees centigrade) the emulsion then lifts off the plastic backing. you can then float the emulsion onto watercolour paper. see pic below
I then scan the transfer or emulsion lift with my Epson perfection V800 scanner for the final image, i can then print onto fine art giclee paper with my canon prograf 1000 printer. the below pic was printed onto Harman by Hahnemühle Matt Cotton Textured, 300gsm
