Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too??? – Part 2

WD-40 which stands for “water displacing” was first used by the military in the ’50s to clean up Atlas missile parts. Throughout the years, people have found over 2000 uses for WD-40. Growing up in the projects of NYC, I have seen my fair share of roaches, but I just found out I in addition to using Raid Roach spray, I could of used WD-40 for instant kills as well.

Three months ago, I wrote a post about WD-40,

Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too???

We all know it, have seen it, probably even take it for granted. I’m talking about WD-40. It has infinite uses and is the real utility knife. Just to get you acquainted again with WD-40, here are just 10 of the the 2000 uses of WD-40.

Despite the bump up in price this week, the levels in play and to monitor are the $150 level on the downside and the $188 level on the upside.

I like to think I’m creative with my titles, so the title three months ago was a play on words. Everyone should have WD-40 in the cabinet. However, WD-40 wasn’t a buy three months ago simply put, because the upper limit was $190, the reward wasn’t worth the risk. But thinking about this further, I guess it’s all relative and depends on what type of investor / trader you are. Anyway lets get back to WD-40.

WD-40 is a straight cash money making machine.  The company has grown their dividends on a year basis that’s equivalent to 9% over the last 10 years.  WD-40 has been growing its earnings per share at 13% each year over the past 5 years.  It’s no wonder institutional investors hold almost 90% of the stock. 

WD-40 reported earnings this past week. Although they beat earnings expectations, their outlook was below expectations and on the news the stock price fell the next trading day, but came storming back closing $7 up on the day. However, the fact that price breached a major resistance/support line, I think the risk is to the downside now.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The ETF, MSCI Is A Longer Term Sell

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its latest projections for the world economy show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a July forecast.  The main culprit was the US-China trade war which is expected to cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the Great Recession. 

Although, the US and China reached a phase I trade deal last week, the IMF stated if deal isn’t reached in the near future, the slowdown in the world economy could worsen, case in point….China.

China’s growth outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2020 is expected to weaken further because of obstacles including drag from the ongoing trade war with the United States, analysts said.

The next mile marker in China’s economic slowdown will come on Friday, when the country reports third quarter growth. Analysts expect it to slow to 6.1 per cent from the 6.2 per cent rate seen in the second quarter, which was the lowest growth rate since the government started publishing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics in the first quarter of 1992.

But analysts are rapidly revising down their expectations for 2020 below the lower end of this year’s growth range. Most forecasts put next year’s growth between 5.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent, with the International Monetary Fund’s just-released projection at 5.8 per cent.

Source

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands for Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and is an index used to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets.   The MSCI ETF that tracks this index is heavily exposed to China.  So where is price of the MSCI ETF headed, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly demand is at $120.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up, but momentum appears to be stalling.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests once the support breaks, to look for shorts to the down side with a first target at the weekly demand at $172.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Energy Analysis Report 10/14/19 – Heating Oil…Meet Biodiesel

When I think of Northeast Winter, I think of heating oil.  Growing up in the projects of New York City, each building had these big boilers ground and every so often I would see a tanker truck refilling the boiler.  As I got older finally realized the black plume of smoke I use to see, it was the combustion of the heating oil in the boiler as it was producing steam for heat and hot water.

NOTE: I grew up right there on the Lower East Side of Manhattan.

Now the Northeast heating oil industry is start to put pressure on the state in the New England regional to mandate biodiesel content in home heating oil in an effort to carbon emissions.   This should be an easy victory for the Industry as because a lot of the heating oil used in New England already contains some biodiesel, but its use is not required in every state.

And across the country, they are encouraging Seattle residents to switch to cleaner heating system by implementing a new tax on the sale of home heating oil to the tune of $0.24 / gallon starting 9/1/20.

Heating oil is a petroleum product refined from crude oil. Heating oil and diesel fuel are closely related products called distillates.  Distillation is the process of separating the components or substances from a liquid mixture by using selective boiling and condensation.  I studied chemical engineering in college and can appreciate the massive refiners out there.

Image result for refiners

Refiners who produce heating oil often make decisions about how much to produce based on the price they are paying for crude oil. However, buying your heating oil during the summer months is usually a better bet because prices tend to drop based on the lack of demand.

As the winter approaching, what can homeowners expect to pay for the price of heating oil, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at $2.4560 and monthly demand is at $1.6000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to play the extremes, wait for price to get to the daily supply or daily demand before considering a trade set-up

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Better Buy: ExxonMobil vs. Dow (Lesser Of Two Evils)

This past weekend I came
across an article on Motley Fool titled,

Better Buy: ExxonMobil vs. Dow

I immediately thought
about the which one is the lesser of two evils…very similar when Hillary was
running against Trump a couple of years ago. 

Image result for hillary vs trump

Nevertheless, I wanted to
get a tidbit from the article before I give you my opinion.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is an old hand with a diversified business model. While the name Dow (NYSE:DOW) is old, it’s really a new company today, with a focus on the chemical space. Here’s a few things you need to think about to decide which one of these iconic names is a better fit for your portfolio.

Exxon is working through a difficult period for oil prices and spending heavily to improve its business. It has a rock-solid balance sheet and looks relatively cheap from a historical basis (the yield is higher than it has been in decades). It is hardly risk-free, but it has a long history of success behind it. Even conservative investors would be OK jumping aboard here.

Dow has a great name and solid businesses, but is really a new company today with a very limited history. Its balance sheet isn’t as strong as Exxon’s, but it also isn’t likely to face the same top- and bottom-line swings. That also suggests its target payout ratio is reasonable. However, with little track record, most investors would probably be better off giving the company at least a year or so to get its house in order before jumping on this high-yield stock.

Source

Sector SPDR ETFs have become one of the most popular ways to invest in specific sectors of the stock market. Sector SPDRs track 11 different sectors in the S&P 500.  It’s important to note that 39% of a stock’s move is due to the sector that it belongs to.  The remaining balance is 41% of a stock’s move is due to the index and only 20% of a stock’s move is due to the company itself.

Since May I started tracking the SPDR sectors based on a moving average and a rating system I developed.  It’s been fairly accurate in identifying the strongest and weakest sectors. Please note Exon belongs to the XLE sector and Dow belongs to the XLB sector.

Here are the results from
last week.

Here are the results from
wk of 5/13/19

As you can see, both companies have been in the worse sector five months ago and today. And when I look at the monthly chart for both companies, the chart suggests ExxonMobil will fall to the monthly demand at $68,

while the chart for DOW suggests price will fall to weekly demand at $42.

If I was Motley Fool, I would of probably titled the article, “Better Buy In the Future: ExxonMobil Or Dow” because neither one of them is worth buying at this point.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 10/13/19 – Rough Week For The US Dollar

Not only is the world’s
currency the US dollar, but it’s one of three safe haven currencies in the
world (the other two being the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen).  And as long as the US economy grows, relative
to other economies and US interest rates remain positive and/or higher relative
to other central banks around the world, the US dollar should continue to
appreciate.

However, late last week we received news regarding the US-China trade talk that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to reach an agreement with the United States to minimize further escalation in trade tariffs. The feeling appeared to be mutual by Trump going into the discussions,

 which was later followed up with Trump said his negotiators reached a “substantial phase-one deal” that will delay the implementation of more US tariffs on Chinese imports. On the news the dollar’s weakness ignited a rally in the euro with the single currency rallying 0.5% to a two-week high. In addition, the British pound rallied after British and Irish leaders meet to have a treaty agreed to allowing the England to leave the EU in an orderly fashion by the end of this month.

As a result of good news on the US-China trade front and a potential amicable Brexit, the dollar had its biggest one day drop in five weeks late last week. So is this just the beginning of a bigger drop for the US dollar, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 101.50 and monthly demand is at 90.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggest it’s not time to go short the US dollar and to wait for price to hit 100.25.

However, if price breaches the 98.00 level, the chart could be suggesting to prepare to go short.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Three weeks ago, I write a post titled,

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Roku remains one of the fastest growing leaders in video streaming technology. Roku has over 30 million active users, about 10% of U.S. TV viewers aged 18 to 34 are now on Roku and these users are consuming more than 9 billion hours on streaming content.

But wait, why is Roku down almost 40% since early Sept?

Apple announced it would be giving away a free year of its new Apple TV+ service to customers who purchase new Apple devices, Comcast Corp. said it will give out its Xfinity Flex streaming box for free to its Internet-only subscribers and Facebook Inc. launched its new Portal TV device.

Price is approaching the monthly demand at $95. The chart suggests to go long once price penetrates the monthly demand.

Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel.  If you know anything about Wall Street, then you have heard of hedge fund, Citadel.  The hedge fund manages close to $30 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.  

Image result for ken griffin

The guy is doing well for himself.  This past January, Ken bought a New York City apartment for $238 million.  But he felt he didn’t have enough space, so he also simultaneously purchased London mansion for $122 million.  Anyway back to the post as I got sidetracked by his wealth.  

A 13G filing or Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the 13D which must be filed by anyone who acquires ownership in a public company of more than 5% of the outstanding stock.  And according to a new 13G filing from hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors shows a new 5% stake in Roku Inc.

Macquarie upgraded Roku from Neutral to Outperform on Wednesday.  And on Friday RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Roku to an Outperform from Sector Perform, boosting his price target by $48 to $155.

I can’t say it enough, so I’m going to repeat what I said in a recent post.

Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. And simple put, they do the opposite of retail investors. For the most part, retail investors buy high and sell low, it’s usually the Smart Money on the other side of the trade who are selling high and buying low.

Taskmaster4450 talked about this yesterday in his post titled, Why There Is No Need For FOMO On Steem

The investing world is full of FOMO (fear of missing out) at times. It is what often drives markets, often to the point of insanity.

Investing is a zero-sum game, so it also drives retail investor to the poor house.

Why do you think Ken took a recent stake in Roku and Roku was upgraded by Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets?  It’s because there isn’t an ounce of FOMO in their blood and because Roku now selling at a discount.  Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Medvedev continues his fine form to Set Up Shanghai Master Final with Zverev

![Screenshot_20191012-172631.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRFGcsvC2N3EMrUtgvDdx8fBUwqk2KeNHfi5SNzwVebsq/Screenshot_20191012-172631.png) Image Source Russia’s Daniil Medvedev recently had a show down with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semi final match of the Shanghai Masters today, which is Saturday. It was all victory for him as he went on to defeat his opponent with the score reading 7-6(5) 7-5. This particular win has remarkably brought him to the ninth final of the season. Congratulations to him for that. He has put down a good record for himself for sure.

As a quick reminder for you guys. Daniil Medvedev is the runner-up for the last tournament of U.S. Open. And going into the Shanghai Masters final, he will be looking forward to adding to his three ATP Tour title on Sunday’s final against Alexander Zverev. No doubt, the 2019 season has been a massive breakthrough for him.

Third seed Daniil Medvedev lost only 16% of his first-serve points and he was able to record an improvement in his win-loss record for the calender year by doing the exploit of saving four of five break points.

This is his sixth straight final after finishing his opponent with a clinical serve and volley combination. Such a great record for him. I am very well impressed with his commitment and determination and I wish him success in the final match.

Atlantis Won’t Save Ethereum Classic

ETC is a cryptocurrency that was the result of a hard fork of the Ethereum network in July 2016. A “fork” is a change to the software of the digital currency that creates two separate versions of the blockchain with a shared history.

In May 2016, the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), lauched by the Ethereum community, went for a crowd token sale to fund its development. After raising $150 MM, a flaw in DAO’s code was exploited by attackers and more than $50 million was drained out of DAO’s funds. A hard fork, ETC was implemented on the Ethereum that made the hacked transaction invalid.

One of the main difference between Ethereum and ETC is the coin supply. Ethereum has a uncapped total, but fixed yearly supply. ETC is set to between 210 MM and 230 MM ETCs. Also, Ethereum is planning to move to proof of stake and ETC is not willing to make. It appears ETC doesn’t have the same size or engaged community like Ethereum based on DApps and ICO launchings. Lastly and probably most importantly, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has no intent of supporting ETC.

Atlantis was successfully implemented on the Ethereum Classic (ETC) blockchain earlier this month, bringing more compatibility with Ethereum (ETH). However, development on the ETC chain remains several months behind ETH, with very little activity over the past six months.

Source

As we all know communities are vital to the sustainability of a blockchain, but equally important, if not more important is the development taking place on a blockchain. Without development, a blockchain is sure to loss ground against other competing blockchain and is also guaranteed to loss its user base.

So where is price headed next, lets go to the charts to find out? Price as been hovering between $2 and $10 since the beginning of 2019.

However, the chart suggests price is heading down to the weekly demand at $2.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In SPDR Gold Shares ETF ,GLD

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver on “Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy.”  He reiterated and tried to assure the crowd that the economy remains strong and the Fed supports keeping the economic expansion going.

Image result for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver

Fed Powell also addressed the repo scare from a couple of weeks ago were overnight repo lending dried up.  Taskmaster4450le spoke about this today in his post title, 

Where Are People Going To Hide?

Turning to short-term funding markets, Powell said “a range of factors” might have caused the turmoil seen last month when the cost of short-term borrowing spiked as firms scrambled to get funding.

Regardless the cause, Powell said it was now time for the Fed to increase the size of its balance sheet. He said the central bank may purchase short-term Treasury bills.

Some analysts call this a “soft” form of quantitative easing, because the Fed buys these securities from the market, but Powell bristled at this description.

“I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase program that we deployed after the financial crisis,” he said.

Source

During the Great Recession QE is injected tons of money into the economy by buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities in hopes of jump starting the economy.  And we are still feeling the effects of QE from ten years ago because money poured into the stock market which has been artificially inflated throughout the years through all the buyback programs (Apple is one of the biggest culprit).  At some point, the bubble will pop, prices will fall and money will migrate in to precious metals (and potential cryptocurrencies).

According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed ETFs bought 75 metric tons of the gold worth almost $4 billion in September.  The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world’s largest and most liquid gold-backed fund, bought 43 tons more bullion during the 30 days.

This is the Smart Money directly at work and they are adding leverage to their investments/trades.  Today I noticed unusual options activity in GLD.   The Smart Money bought over 6000 call options with a strike price at $149 that expire in March 2020. 

This is on top of the 7000 call options they bought yesterday. 

I can’t say I have seen call options going out this far, but this trade set-up has plenty of time of being profitable as the chart suggests the next target for GLD is the $152.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

D.R.E.A.M – Dollars Rule Everything Around Me (Intermarket Analysis)

Intermarket analysis is a powerful tool that gives traders/investors a macro predictive direction of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Intermarket analysis states that all asset classes are interrelated and that you can’t definitively determine the direction of one asset class without examining the other asset classes.

There are several key relationships that bind these four markets together. These relationships include:

  • The INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds.
  • The INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks.
  • The POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities.
  • The INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities.

NOTE:

A rising Dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices because many commodities are priced in Dollars, such as oil. Bonds benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces inflationary pressures. Stocks can also benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces the costs for raw materials.

Gold is sort of a commodity.  It’s a hard asset and mined like any other metal.  However, it behaves more like a monetary asset, especially against the US dollar. As a rule, when the price of the US dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down and vice versa. However, while gold typically has an inverse relationship to the dollar, it’s not always the case.

The past year has been somewhat surreal in the gold market, as we have the rare occurrence of the dollar rising in somewhat slow fashion while gold bullion has appreciated about $300 per ounce to trade near $1,500. Historically, a rising dollar and rising gold bullion haven’t gone together, but the distortions that have come with global quantitative easing policies are to blame for the breakdown in this inverse relationship.

Moreover, if the Fed is cutting the fed funds rate and the European Central Bank is accelerating QE due to the bad economic numbers from the Old Continent, the dollar will not decline, as the interest-rate differentials are still in favor of the greenback.

Still, the excess reserves in the global financial system, which are a function of QE policies by the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Fed, are what has given gold enthusiasts the hope that we will make fresh all-time highs in gold bullion

Source

So this US Dollar and Gold correlation may last a bit longer as both have more room to the upside before hitting monthly supply zones, which means they could fall together as well once they both reach the monthly supply zones.

US Dollar

Gold

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.