Currency Analysis Report 11/14/19 – The Kiwi Surprises Everyone

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut interests rate three times this year with the most recent cut being in August.  Back in August the Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points.  The drastic cut shocked the Markets because the Markets were only a 25 basis point reduction.  At that time, Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr hinted at further easing by any means necessary in order to hit their inflation rate targets.

Twelve out of 15 analysts polled by Reuters expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would cut rates to 0.75% this week from the current 1%.  However, nobody saw it coming yesterday evening.

The New Zealand dollar surged Wednesday after the country’s central bank defied expectations for an interest rate cut, and left policy unchanged. The kiwi dollar NZDUSD, +1.2954% jumped 1.1% to 0.6402 U.S. cents. In a statement, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said at it was leaving the Official Cash Rate at 1% as economic developments since August “do not warrant a change to the already stimulatory monetary policy setting at this time.”

Expectations had widely been calling for a cut of 25 basis points, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, in a note to clients.

Source

The RBNZ left the door ajar for further policy easing saying it was “prepared to act” if required. The central bank’s own projections imply a 50/50 chance of a cut next year.

So where is the Kiwi headed next, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is 0.7600 and monthly demand is 0.6300

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests you can’t consider going long until price closes above 0.6450.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Please click the link below to listen to the 62nd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.



External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000456679512

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-nethg-c74668


Transcript

Deciphering
China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

The real division is not between conservatives and revolutionaries but between authoritarians and libertarians.

― George Orwell

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This instalment sees the
start of a 5-part series examining China’s recent shift in its public stance towards
blockchain.

  • Part 1 Focuses on the rationale
    driving this apparent change.
  • Part 2 Outlines why, in particular,
    this is good for Bitcoin.
  • Part 3 Examines the long-term outlook
    for China-based blockchain projects.
  • Part 4 Discusses the wider
    implications of China’s involvement in blockchain development and
    implementation.
  • Part 5 Outlines the opportunities and
    risks that now present themselves to crypto investors.

Why blockchain and Why now?

On October 25TH President Xi publicly
stated China’s desire to lead the world in both blockchain development and
implementation. His endorsement was both broad and enthusiastic. In the following
days and weeks, local authorities and media cemented this embrace of blockchain
with the release of instructional blockchain materials, further endorsement by
central bank officials, the suppression of anti-blockchain threads on social
media, and the removal of crypto mining from the list of activities the ruling
party would like to see eliminated.

In one sense, the move to portraying blockchain in a
more positive light is very easily explained. The Central Bank of China (CBC)
have long announced their plans to roll-out a state-controlled cryptocurrency.
Clearly cleaning up the image of blockchain is an important prerequisite before
introducing this system.

However, at a deeper level, China’s embrace of
blockchain can be understood and summed up with one word – control. Ruling
since 1949 the Communist Party of China (CPC) has but one core principle –
continued hegemony over the Chinese nation. Each and every policy is driven by
this directive. Blockchain is no exception. Indeed, blockchain is a godsend to
this authoritarian regime that already exhibits great control over most aspects
of society whether that be political, financial or social.

A centralized blockchain or series of blockchains will
facilitate the parties’ expansion ever deeper in the lives of its citizens. The
marriage of money to surveillance as facilitated by a unified blockchain
database of transactions will serve to substantially deepen its level of
control over the actions of the Chinese people. A state-issued cryptocurrency
will be monitored and permissioned – dissent already difficult will both be easier
to root out and of course, suppress.

Any domestically derived economic benefits of blockchain
are simply added value – it is first and foremost a tool of control. Doubtless,
China’s pending rollout of its Social Credit System will be intimately
integrated with blockchain. Rewards and penalties will be easy to track, administer
and iterate on. Granular control is the goal of every authoritarian regime and
time and again the CCP has demonstrated its enduring focus on remaining both in
power and in ever greater realized control. China’s homegrown and eminently
successful companies all tow the line. Data is not in any sense private and the
rights of the citizens are entirely subsumed by the ‘needs’ of the party.
We-Chat, Weibo, Tencent and so on serve to prop up the regime as they routinely
hand-over their customer’s data. It’s hard to overstate the extent to which
this data mining has aided the CPC in retaining its reins on power.

Public announcements of economic growth and pushing
the horizon for the sake of science are mere window-dressing to the
identifiable purpose of blockchain in the Chinese context -control and ever
more of it.

An understanding of the core philosophy that drives
the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) removes much of the mystery behind its stance
towards blockchain. Is it really any surprise at all the Bitcoin hasn’t been
similarly embraced and endorsed?

Next week will examine this clear Chinese government distinction
between blockchain and Bitcoin, highlighting the long-term positive this
provides for the distributed, decentralized network this is Bitcoin.

Thanks for listening.

XEM technical analysis

XEM seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe as the structure of candles is within range zone, which I have delimited by the light blue rectangle, the price has correctly tested the zone of demand in 1W located in the 0.00000437 forming a double floor pattern as a signal of reversal of trend, so we could find in the short term an upward impulse towards our first target of gain located in the 0.00000675, which is our first key zone to take into account for the next movement, if this happens we could find resistance in that zone and correct by means of a test of the high range located in the 0.00000555 to later continue to rise by our second objective of gains located within the range of the price of the 0.00000675 – 0.00000882.

XEM seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the offer was accepted in the 0.00000555 after the escape of the minor figure that we see in the graph above indicated by the two diagonals dark blue color, this has caused the price to retreat into the area of demand where the structure has formed this double floor that should be a strong signal for the bulls to go for an upward movement towards our target located at 0.00000675, for this to happen we need the price in 1D to hold HL and find a strong impulse to buy into the high range of the rectangle, otherwise, the price could be oscillating even longer within this zone.

In conclusion, XEM shows an excellent chart with high bullish probabilities that has not yet been exploited within the bullish price flight in the BTC pairs that we have seen in other currencies during these days, therefore, in the short term we could see the price of this currency have a strong momentum, the current conditions are conducive to it, we just need the volume to see this possible scenario, otherwise, the price could continue to accumulate longer, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D to choose the best buy position and always remember to place their stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Look For Roku To Benefit From The Streaming Wars

Microsoft licenses its operating systems to manufacturers of computers back in the day. Today, the name Microsoft is synonymous with PCs and laptops. Just like Microsoft is synonymous with PCs and laptops, Roku is synonymous with smart TVs.

Roku was founded in 2002 is taking advantage of the cord cutting trend. According to Roku’s most recent shareholders’ letter, “roughly 50% of U.S. cord cutters are Roku customers.

Roku offers an easy way to access all the top streaming services. Roku estimates that more than a third of all smart TVs sold in the U.S. have Roku’s operating system built in. The list right now includes TCL, Insignia, Sharp, Hisense, Hitachi, RCA and Philips. Roku’s free channel has also secured a partnership with Samsung.

Image result for streaming wars

Source Image

Roku is well-positioned for the streaming war. As the streaming war rages between Netflix NFLX, Amazon AMZN, Disney DIS and others and more people spend more time streaming their favorite shows on more services, Roku makes more money. So no matter which streaming service comes out on top, Roku should benefit.

It’s the reason why Roku was up as much as 400% this year at one point. In just under a year, Roku went from a small/mid cap stock to a large-cap. The firm’s sales growth has been accelerating with year-over-year growth of more than 50% for the past 3 quarters. In addition, Roku just reported its 8th straight top and bottom-line earnings beat. However, on the news the stock sold off. Wall Street will tell you their valuation got to rich, but a month ago I talked about where the chart suggested the Sellers were.

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

It’s not a coincident, price sold off at the daily supply at $148, the news just served as a catalysts. Just another example of why the Markets are not random.

So where does Roku go from here?

Highlighting how well the company is monetizing its platform, Roku’s average revenue per user over the trailing 12 months is 40% higher than Netflix’s most expensive streaming plan. What’s particularly surprising, however, is that current trends indicate there’s still plenty of upside left for this metric to move even higher.

In Roku’s third-quarter update, management said its ARPU was $22.58. With 32.3 million active accounts (1.7 million of which were added in Q3 alone), this robust ARPU has helped Roku deliver $633 million in trailing-12-month platform revenue.

While Roku does benefit from subscriptions to third-party streaming services on its platform, advertising is the company’s most important growth driver. In fact, monetized ad inventory on its platform more than doubled year over year in Q3 — a trend that has been consistent with recent quarters.

Looking ahead, Roku believes this is just the beginning when it comes to advertising spending on its platform. Only 3% of TV advertising budgets are currently spent on connected TV, yet connected TV accounts for 29% of U.S. viewing, Roku’s general manager of platform business, Scott Rosenberg, noted in Roku’s third-quarter earnings call, citing research firm Magna Global.

Source

Thus, the chart suggests to go long at the daily demand at $107 and ride price back to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Will Google Buy Fossil Next???

Fossil Group, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its principal products include men’s and women’s fashion watches and jewelry, smartwatches, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses.

Although Fossil sales other things beside watches, their bread and butter and what they are known for are their watches.  However, watches are a tough business these days in the era of smartwatches.

Thus, Fossil has been expanding its smartwatches and wearable portfolio.  This holiday season, Fossil is selling their most advanced hybrid smartwatch, featuring text messages, alerts, caller ID, heart rate and activity tracking and a two-week battery life, but the smartwatch market continues to be dominated by Apple.

Image result for Hybrid HR is Fossil Group's most advanced hybrid smartwatch technology

Fossil reported earnings this past week.  The stock tanked after a surprise quarterly loss and said its sales fell 11%. Fossil said it lost $26 million, or 51 cents a share, in the third quarter, versus earnings of $5 million, or 10 cents a share, in the third quarter of 2018. Sales also declined to $539.5 million from $609 million.

Among the challenges that Chief Executive Kosta Kartsotis outlined on the earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript: a tough consumer environment, difficult sales trends at wholesale channels in developed markets, and lack of interest in traditional watches. “Based on these factors, we’ve lowered our sales expectations for Q4,” he said. “[G]iven the trends we saw in the third quarter, we think it’s prudent to plan our sales number assuming these trends don’t change near term.

Source

Earlier this year, Fossil announced that they were sell technology related to its high-end watches to Google. Google paid $40 million to Fossil in exchange for intellectual property needed to make the watches.

Fitbit was the pioneer in fitness trackers and was doing well, that until the smartwatches were also able to track fitness activities.  And at the point this was the beginning of the end for Fitbit. And after years of struggling and trying to remain relevant, they finally waved the white flag and sold to Google. Google was seen as a potential suitor for Fitbit prior to the deal announcement, as the two companies struck a partnership last year and have vested interests in the health space.

So why would Google buy Fossil.  Googles mission for its Wear OS is to create “a diverse set of devices” for their smartwatch platform.  Fossil owns and licenses 14 brands, including popular names like Kate Spade, Michael Kors, Armani, DKNY, and Diesel. Each of these brands already have their own Wear OS watch in its own signature style.  Thus, buying Fossil would be in alignment with Googles mission for Wear OS.

If Google is going to buy Fossil, the chart suggest, to wait for price to hit the monthly demand at $5, which would represent a 44% discount from the current price.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 54


Probably not a week that saw your portfolio increase in value. Bearish short-term outlook seems confirmed but the reasons to hold crypto remain as strong as ever. Having said that should the markets in general drop steeply (in the short to medium term) crypto will follow – better to be aware of this ‘reality’ and plan accordingly. It bears repeating – this is a long-term play – the cryptos that survive and eventually thrive will bring great reward to ‘early’ investors but this is over a multi-year horizon (closer to 2030 than 2020). If it’s life-changing wealth you pursue – only a realistic time frame will get you there.


Picks of the Week

Twitter this week was a literal treasure trove of crypto themes, narratives, analysis and discussions. Just a few examples being – Bitcoin as a religious journey, a critique of the stock to flow model, Altcoins as Oscillators or Degenerators, and a brief analysis of BTC where price equals difficulty.

In addition, this by Crypto Daily is essential viewing for those looking to understand the current ‘context’ of the cryptosphere.


Twitter

Nic Carter predicts looming regulatory clampdown – I tend to agree:
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1105991062089142272

How to stifle BTC:
https://twitter.com/american_hodl/status/1188842258939793408

A brief rebuttal of the stock to flow model:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1191901268740132864

On Altcoins as ‘Oscillators or Degenerators’ (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1192316072533229568

BTC price = difficulty?:
https://twitter.com/SGBarbour/status/1189416790419337216

Bitcoin as akin to a religious experience (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/dergigi/status/1189608467029516289

On Binance and its current market advantage relative to newcomers:
https://twitter.com/gautamchhugani/status/1189513757736587264

1971 was a sea-change year:
https://twitter.com/HectorRosekrans/status/1189646706780098560

On crypto conferences:
https://twitter.com/MrMichaelNye/status/1192342577141276672


Articles

A comparative analysis of exchange token valuations (highly recommended):
https://cryptobriefing.com/comparative-price-analysis-exchange-tokens/

Refuting the theory that 2017’s price bubble was caused by a single player:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-reasons-why-one-trader-didnt-manipulate-bitcoin-price-to-20k

The ever-interesting Bit Brain on the onlook for Altcoins:
https://trybe.one/perspective-on-altcoins

Ray Dalio on why the present financial system has lost its way (highly recommended):
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio/

The origin of money by Nick Szabo (highly recommended):
https://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/


Podcast

A return to the stock to flow model of PlanB – even if are skeptical of the model there’s a wealth of pertinent material here(highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/slp122-planb-responses-to-the-s2f-model/id1415720320?i=1000455882683


YouTube

Undoubtedly Crypto Daily’s finest work to date -despite the light-hearted delivery this is a must-watch for folks with a long-term interest in crypto (highly recommended):


Discussing BTC’s supply/fee model (recommended):


A BTC prediction for 2020:


Colin continues his stellar work on EOS governance reform:


The Crypto Lark discusses Ray Dalio’s assessment of the current state of the financial system:


Infographics

Folks are still buying BTC:

https://twitter.com/matt_odell/status/1192205598793895940/photo/1


CME institutional futures have turned markedly bullish:

https://twitter.com/skewdotcom/status/1190722446334349313/photo/1


Website / Utility

Weeks of high-quality content here for the crypto enthusiast who wishes to look under the hood (highly recommended):

https://aantonop.com/videos/

While price may have disappointed – the space as an environment I which to learn certainly did not! As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.


Rental Price Growth Gets Cut in Half From A Year Ago

Rental prices have seen aggressive growth over the past five years, but the gas tank may finally be getting low with prices over the past year growing half as much as recent years.

Raising Rents as an Investment Strategy May Get Difficult

A lot of this is market dependent and growth could certainly kick up again, but the rates have been steadily strong prior to this year so it’s worth keeping an eye on this data going forward and adjusting strategy if needed.

Nationwide Rate

As a whole rental prices increased 1.4% year over year, according to apartmentlist.com data, while the month over month change for October was 0.1%.

Picking Growing Markets Is Important

Many real estate investors in recent years, especially those doing large multifamily deals have used a strategy of acquiring under performing properties, sprucing them up and raising rents as units are turned over.

Then, with the cap rate higher due to the increased rents they can refinance out of an original loan and pull a good chunk of equity or just sell outright for a profit.

It is a solid strategy, but we can’t just blindly assume higher rents will be supported indefinitely.  Capital improvements will help attract higher rents, but in the end the market dictates the ultimate cap regardless of how nice a place is.

This is why it is imperative to pick strong growing markets.  That doesn’t just mean in rental prices, it means a growing population with increasing job opportunities.

That will help provide the market growth needed, but will also hold up the best if we hit a period of stagnation in the future.

Growing vs. Shrinking

Here is a glimpse at some states with the best and worst year over year growth.

  • Arizona: 3.5% growth
  • North Dakota: 2.9% growth
  • North Carolina: 2.7% growth
  • Nevada: 2.6% growth
  • Delaware: 2.4% growth

Rental prices falling:

  • West Virginia: -0.8% growth
  • Louisiana: -0.6% growth
  • Alaska: -0.3% growth
No Red Flags, but Pay Mind

As you can see there are some leaders and some laggards of the 1.4% national average.

The good news is we still have growth in rental prices, the bad news is growth has slowed a considerable amount over the past year.

Again, it is data worth watching, especially for those with the business model of aggressively raising rents on new projects as growth projections may not keep pace compared to recent years.

ONE technical analysis

ONE seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe how the price has realized a correct retest of the monthly support located in the 0.00511 where the price has found bullish impulse for the testing of the high range located in the 0.00610, we see how the price has formed within the smaller figure an upward triangle indicated in the chart above by the dark blue diagonal, if the price achieves the close above the weekly bid, the probabilities of a much larger bullish move are very high, our first profit target is located within the price range of 0.00814 – 0.00935, this target could be easily achievable once the price achieves the close above the resistance.

ONE seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see a marked pattern of double floor as a signal of reversal of trend, as I mentioned in previous analysis, this is a pattern that many other USDT pairs are forming as a bullish signal of the last movement of BTC, in the chart above we can see the test that the price has made in the high range located at 0.00642, the price should find the necessary push for a continuation bullish within the zone of demand in 1D located within the price range of 0.00539 – 0.00580, indicated in the chart above by the light blue rectangle, for now we have a closing of the diagonal drop in 1D that we can observe through the diagonal dark blue, the price still does not make the test, so we must be very attentive in 4H.

In conclusion, ONE presents an excellent bullish movement after having found support at 0.00511, this has motivated the formation of a bullish pattern that should conclude with a continuation of the movement towards our first profit target located within the price range of 0.00814 – 0.00935, our second profit target is located within the price range of 0.01124 – 0.01212, for this to happen we need a weekly closing candle above 0.00610, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the price action in 1D to choose the best position and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Barrick Gold Still On The Prowl

Barrick Gold Corporation explores for and develops mineral properties. The company primarily explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits.

According to Oilprice.com Barrick Gold Corp is one of most promising gold miners in 2020. Barrick Gold made headlines earlier this year when they attempted to acquire Newmont Mining which would of created the world’s largest gold producer. Barrick wanted Newmont Mining because of their adjoining assets in Nevada.

Needless to say, Barrick eventually pulled its $18 billion offer for Newmont Mining Corp and agreed to form a joint venture in Nevada with Newmont Mining.

The world’s second largest gold producer reported earnings yesterday and said it would be at the top end of its production targets for the year and the lower end of cost estimates.

Thanks to the rise in gold prices over the last year and gold production increasing to 1.31 million ounces from 1.15 million ounces over the last 12 months, profits rose to $264 million, or 15 cents per share, in the quarter ended Sept. 30, from $89 million, or 8 cents per share, a year earlier. 

And if that news wasn’t good enough, Barrick also announced that its Board of Directors declared a dividend for the third quarter of 2019 of $0.05 per share, a 25% increase on the previous quarter’s dividend.

Although the Newmont Mining deal didn’t materialize, Barrick’s late founder Peter Munk vision of building the world’s largest gold producer remains on the table.  The latest talk on the Street is now combining with Freeport-McMoran.

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) engages in the mining of mineral properties in the United States, Indonesia, Peru, and Chile. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas.

Barrick Gold Corp.’s chief said there’s a logic to combining with Freeport-McMoran Inc. as a way to expand into copper, but isn’t committing to any deals yet.

A tie-up with Freeport could bolster Barrick’s U.S. presence, where it already operates gold mines in Nevada, said Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow, who cautioned that it’s not something currently being considered.

“Everyone has been fingered as a potential suitor of Freeport,” said Bristow, when asked if he was interested in a combination. “There’s a bit of work for us to do before we can get our head around broadening our scope.”

Source

In general, the mining stocks do better than gold when the price of the metal rallies.  Although gold prices have pulled back, I think it’s just part of any normal uptrend, in the cause of gold, a longer term uptrend that started in late 2018.

So where is the price of Barrick headed next, lets go to the charts go to long on the pull back to the weekly demand at $15.30 with a target right before the weekly supply zone.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto

Please click the link to listen to the 61st episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.



https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-not-your-keys-not-your-crypto/id1441492450?i=1000456049632

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-ch4kh-c632f0


Transcript

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week’s episode examines the key concept of ownership or possession (the same thing) in the cryptocurrency space.

If you’ve spent any time at all focused on cryptocurrencies then you’ve very likely encountered the statement, ‘Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto.’ However, this truth bears repeating, reflection and if necessary, action.

A Few Caveats

If you only have a small position in crypto amounting to less than 1% of your liquid net worth then parking it on an exchange doesn’t really matter.

In addition, if you are a frequent trader a certain percentage of your assets are inevitably going to be locked up in orders and open positions. Of course, if that’s more than roughly 10-15% of your trading account -you’re exposing yourself to unnecessary counter-party risk.

Also, if you are not currently tech-savvy enough to move your funds off an exchange – take some time, seek some help and move your crypto as soon as you are comfortable doing so (the sooner the better).

‘Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto.’

Getting your hands on crypto is rarely easy, it is a friction-rich experience. There are many steps to take before you can even claim to own any cryptocurrency. Research, signing up to an exchange, going through KYC, learning to navigate an order book, setting up a wallet, backing up that wallet, sending your first transaction, trying not to freak out when you see the words ‘unconfirmed’ and on and on it goes.

Many people seem to make it only as far as an exchange. They buy but don’t take possession. While this takes some of the friction out of the user experience, it also critically undermines the whole appeal of crypto.
To be absolutely clear – the cryptocurrency on an exchange is not under your control – it is simply an IOU by a third party. The balances you see are entirely under their jurisdiction. Indeed, your very access to those balances is something they may choose to cut off if, and when, the exchange deems it in their own interest to do so.

At any time, their circumstances may change – they may go out of business, be hacked, simply exit scam you, or be shut-down by some regulatory authority. Were any of these to occur you are likely out of luck. Sure, large exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase are more robust than their lesser peers but the fundamental reality of the IOU nature of their relationship with their customers remains the same.

This helplessness is highly ironic given the incredible freedom possession of an asset like Bitcoin imparts. You are essentially forfeiting the trustless, uncensorable quality of BTC for what exactly….oh yeah the false comfort of a third party holding your asset for you…like a bank might do…except crypto exchanges are much more unstable than even their banking counterparts…here today, gone tomorrow.

Not your keys, Not your crypto. Not simply a slogan but a fact.

Thanks for listening.