Bitcoin – possible next moves

 

Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy

Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.

As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.

 

Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:

 

Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.

 

My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.

Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.

 

Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:

 

And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:

 

…and similar patterns from earlier times too.

 

The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.

Summary:

I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.

I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.

I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.

Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:

  1. BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
  2. My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
 
 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





Crypto Contest July 23: Revain

Revain (HitBTC: RBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Revain began a wave one advance on June 26. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 2, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 21. If this wave count is correct, Revain should be heading next towards the July 2 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Revain is a review platform built with blockchain technology. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Revain and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Halliburton Is Setting Up For A Short

Halliburton issued their second-quarter earnings report today.  The beat the expectations on earnings, but was short expectations on sales.

“International revenue increased 6% sequentially, confirming our expectation of high single-digit international growth for all of 2019. Momentum is building internationally and activity improvement should continue into 2020,” said eff Miller, Chairman, President and CEO. “Both of our divisions made meaningful contributions to growing North America revenue and margins in the second quarter. We are successfully executing our strategy of controlling what we can control and managing our business to perform well in any market conditions.”

Source

That was enough for the stock to receive a couple of upgrades.  Citigroup’s Scott Gruber reiterated a Buy rating and $33 price target and Stephens analyst Tommy Moll reiterated an Overweight rating and $45 price target on the stock, highlighting Halliburton’s ability to deliver “higher margins in North America despite macro headwinds.”

But here’s the problem, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is lagging the S&P 500,

and Halliburton is lagging the XLE

Although oil has risen since January lows, it’s still below $60.  Thus, there isn’t a lot of incentive for the producers to produce because they are marginally making a profit, so don’t have a lot of need for the service companies such as Halliburton.

Thus, despite the upgrades, the chart suggest to short Halliburton at the weekly supply at $25.25

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Are You Still Buying The Equity Bull Market???

The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite keep making new all-time highs.  So do you still believe in this Bull
Market???  If you do, well…you should because
we still are making higher highs vs. lower lows. But I want to give you some
food for thought to be careful.

Consumer discretionary to technology, cyclical stocks that typically associated with bull markets while in down turns or bear markets, consumer staples typically outperform.  However, both consumer discretionary and consumer staples sector are at all time highs…TOGETHER…HOW CAN THIS BE???

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (ETF), XLY

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (ETF) , XLP

With the US equity markets, consumer staples and consumer discretionary all all-time highs, something has to give because based on intermarket correlations, this doesn’t make any sense. This is when one has to dig a bit deeper.

 The consumer discretionary sector has consistently lagged the consumer staples sector ever since last year.

Source

For the bull market to continue to run, the discretionary sector must eventually outrun the staples or at some point we will see the equity markets start making lower highs, then lower lows.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

STEEM: a clear Double Bottom Pattern…

….and it would indicate something good for the price if STEEM wouldn’t have so much selling pressure from the wales and from @steemit in particular.

A double Bottom pattern is a Bullish Pattern that usually describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action. It is normally accompanied for a divergence in some of the technical indicators and this is what we see at RSI indicator on the daily chart:

RSI Indicator:


MACD Indicator:

… as I said, if it was any other ALTCOIN I would not have any doubt to claim BULLISH Action on it but we are talking about STEEM which is being really controlled from those that state that STEEM is a decentralized blockchain….

Will see what happens next…in the meantime, I would try to accumulate as much as possible.


@toofasteddie

Can Bulls Prevent a Knockout? Analyzing Bitcoin, LTC, ETH & Answering Your Questions

Bulls are still defending $10,000, but bears are attempting to land a knockout punch. Price dropped from $10,500 to $10,150 in less than 20 mins. Just another day in the crypto market.

Screen Shot 2019-07-22 at 11.07.18 AM.png

In today’s video I’ll analyze Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum. We’ll discuss the 4 hour death cross, where prices may be heading next, traps to avoid and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/22/19

When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin.  Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin. 

When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.

Source Image

Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.

Binance

EOS

Ethereum

Litecoin

Neo

Steem

Tron

Zcash

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 7/22/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

It’s TOO QUIET in here…

 

I have been blogging since early 2018, not what I would consider to be “long” in blogging terms, but long enough to have become a part of the furniture. During that time I have seen big changes in the crypto blogging space: some rapid, some more sedate.

One of the sedate ones has now become too obvious to ignore: it’s too quiet in here…

How often do you make new followers on blogging platforms these days? It still happens, but it’s not nearly as frequent as it was a year ago, is it? How many comments do you get on each blog post?

Despite the best efforts of many bloggers who frequently leave comments and engage wherever they can (thank you guys – I really appreciate the efforts you make – both on my posts and on the posts of other bloggers), the numbers are still way off what they once were. If I look at Steemit, the platform I started blogging (and still use to this day), I now so rarely get comments that I don’t even check my replies daily anymore! At one stage I would check replies several times a day.

There is also a notable drop in post earnings: my own account has been hard hit – though granted – some of that has to do with the price of the tokens one earns. Even so: token price is a reflection of interest in the token, and interest in STEEM is disturbingly low! I had hoped to be able to earn a living from blogging, though if this carries on I can see that I shall have to make other plans. Even some of the top Steemit bloggers are earning pathetically little compared to what they once did, a clear sign that interaction is shrinking dramatically.

It’s not just Steemit that has been hit, Trybe is visibly empty too. Here, take a look at the bottom of “page 1” of my Trybe friends list. I like to use this list to see who has been online lately. I normally select each member who has been online since I last visited, check their blog and then comment on their new posts. But so many of them have just not been online lately…

From https://old.trybe.one/members/bitbrain/friends/

 

 

It’s hard to engage with friends who are not there! Imagine what pages 2 and 3 look like! I miss the regular posts of some very good bloggers who used to post frequently. Some of my Steemit friends haven’t been seen in nearly a year! 😥

Don’t get me wrong: I’m not blaming anybody for anything here: neither the platforms nor the bloggers. I fully understand that it takes time to generate and curate good content. (I hate the system-gaming heajin-style copy-&-paste posts which have little to no effort put into them) Time IS money, and not all of us can afford to spend several hours a day on crypto social media platforms – especially when payouts are poor. It isn’t all about the money, but it does become “not economically viable” at some point.

I sense a form of despondency among my fellow crypto bloggers, and that is to be expected. The altcoin market remains nightmarish in many respects, that is having a clear effect in the platforms based on those coins. I think that STEEM and the STEEM-based platforms are suffering from that particularly hard: Dan Larimer’s middle-child is playing the role of classic neglected middle-child to a T.

Personally I have already sold off quite a lot of my STEEM, and have suggested that others may want to follow suit. I know that many other STEEM holders have already sold off a significant portion of their holdings.

However…

I won’t be selling of all of my STEEM, and when I do sell it, it’s to buy other altcoins – not to cash out to fiat!

I am well aware that altcoins are not popular right now. I have seen the BTC value of my altcoin portfolio plunge during the last few months. Bitcoin maximalists are everywhere, I don’t recall ever seeing anti-altcoin sentiment this high before (probably because the majority of altcoins have not been around for long enough).

I am NOT a supporter of the saying “The trend is your friend”. Instead I consider the trend to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, somebody who leads you along the path, and then once you become complacent, stabs you in the back with a sharp trend reversal. As a Value Investor and a Contrarian, my default instinct is to oppose the trend. But what does that mean in real terms?

There is blood on the streets. The altcoins are bleeding.

We ALL know: “Buy Low, Sell High”. Yet when the price of something is low, what do we do? We panic sell. When price surges high, what do we do? We FOMO buy.

Hear the wisdom of Bit Brain: NOW is the time to BUY altcoins!

I believe that this is a golden opportunity. Bitcoin can’t keep climbing alone – it makes no economic sense! I saw a Tweet this morning which said that the Bitcoin Whitepaper is the only one worth reading. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are MANY good altcoins out there with a solid token economics model. They will make money, irrespective of what BTC does. I agree that BTC is the only real store-of-value crypto, but it is not the only crypto that has value! I still expect good altcoins to thrash BTC in terms of ROI over the next year or two.

Mark my words, sentiment towards altcoins WILL swing around again, and when it does, make sure that you are holding some good ones!

And this is why I’m keeping some STEEM. This is why I am slowly letting my TRYBE tokens grow in number. It’s just like mining BTC: too often miners shut down when it becomes “unprofitable” to mine. But what if they just kept on mining – took the short-term loss – and then sold that BTC when the market recovered? They would make a fortune in profits, especially because mining difficulty drops when miners pull out.

If TRYBE ever “Moons” by 100x and becomes worth $0.10 per token, then you can’t expect to still earn 1000 TRYBE for each post that you write! BUT YOU CAN EARN THAT TODAY!

So I suggest holding onto that which you can accumulate now, because markets ARE cyclic – often unpredictable, but cyclic nonetheless. I suggest that you keep on blogging, keep on curating, keep on supporting one another. We ALL know that crypto is still in it’s early days and that a lot of money will still enter this asset class. When it does so, it would be good if we could have our platforms ready to receive the influx of new interest, interest which would greatly boost the value of our tokens again.

So take heart, don’t feel down just because your altcoins are worth nothing. Don’t give up just because your earnings are very low. I am literally betting the future of my financial success on crypto – and honestly – I’m not too worried about it. For me it’s more a “when?” than an “if”. (No: don’t follow my example, I didn’t really have a choice due to a rather unique set of circumstances. Don’t put more into crypto than what you can afford to lose!)

Hang in there crypto friends, the altcoins will make a comeback. You’ll see. 😉

“It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





Crypto Contest July 22: Dusk Network

Dusk Network (Bittrex: DUSKBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Dusk began a wave one advance on July 14. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 17, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 19. If this wave count is correct, Dusk should be heading next towards the July 17 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Dusk streamlines the issuance of digital securities and automates trading compliance with the world’s first programmable and confidential securities. Crypto Beadles interviewed the co-founder earlier this month.

(Sources: Dusk Network and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

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