Will The Russell 2000 Finally Join The Party???

On Tuesday the Fed Powell
will discuss US monetary policy and on Weds will announce whether he is keeping
interest rates on hold or dropping them.  In July Fed Powell lowered interest rates for
the first time in a decade.  Wall Street
is expecting the same on Weds, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-basis
point cut.

If the US equity markets are going to continue their climb higher, the Russell 2000 must fall inline.  The Russell 2000 index represents the largest 2000 small cap public companies in the US.  But in recent months the Russell 2000 have been stubborn to rise with the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 as indicated by the green line.

Source

Usually towards the end of the business cycle, rising interest rates hurt smaller companies the most because they have a higher debt to earnings ratio and lower free cash flow relative to much larger companies.  Also, smaller companies are more volatile and tend to react and respond to changes in economic conditions and changes in investor sentiment first. However, if rates are going to continue to get cut, that should help the Russell 2000 to finally join the party. And based on the Russell 2000 outpacing its friends last week, I think it things a rate cut is already “money in the bag.”

Source

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks the Russell 2000 Index of stocks with smaller market capitalizations, saw its largest weekly inflows in nearly a year during the week that ended September 6. Those inflows totaled $1.5 billion and followed a $340 million inflow during the final days of August. Since bottoming out on August 27, the iShares ETF has rallied nearly 9% compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 5% over the same period.

There is the possibility that the resurgence could be longer lasting if the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of July is more than just a one-off and marks the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle.

Judging by history, further rate cuts would be supportive of small-cap equities. During the first year following the start of a Fed rate-cut cycle, small caps have risen on average 28% compared with just 15% for large caps, according to investment banking firm Jeffries, per the FT.

Source

Thus the chart suggests the two levels to monitor above price are the daily supply at $1630 and $1665.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crude Oil Analysis Report 9-15-19…Oil Will Gap Higher Sunday Evening

Fracking and horizontal drilling technology (which has created access to the once inaccessible shales of oil and gas) in the last 10 years has made the US a major player in the world of oil production.

fracking graphic

Source Image 

The technology has bee so beneficial to the US, that in 2018, the US become the number one producer of oil in the world.   However, I can’t leave Saudi Arabia out of this conversation.  They are the number two producer of oil in the world at 12.4 millions barrels/day.  As you know, the price of oil is probably one of the clearest examples of supply and demand. So say the oil rig count goes up in the US or Saudia Arabia increases oil production, the price of oil is surely to go down.  However, if the oil rig count goes down or if the oil pipelines are sabotaged, supply will take a hit and oil prices will rise. This past Sat, drones attacked Saudia Arabia oil pipelines.

Drone strikes on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities, among the world’s largest and most important energy production centers, have disrupted about half of the kingdom’s oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saturday took responsibility for the attacks, saying 10 drones targeted state-owned Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency.

In a statement on Sunday, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that 5.7 million barrels a day of crude oil and gas production have been affected. The latest OPEC figures from August 2019 put the total Saudi production at 9.8 million barrels per day.

Source

So at the open on the crude oil futures Sunday at 6 pm eastern, I expect price to gap up,

but I have no idea if price will fill the gap that day because price is still within a $5 range going back to the beginning of August.

Thus the chart suggests to play the extremes, until they are broken, but always keep in mind of the bigger picture.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 46

A ridiculous number of high-quality articles have crossed my path this week. I’ve included just a few. The opportunity to be challenged and engaged while exploring the mad, bad and sometimes sad world of crypto is not to be underestimated, it is truly a learner’s paradise – just keep that open mind and delve on!


Pick of the Week

If you explore only one thing – let it be Nic Carter’ treatise on BTC as a vehicle of peaceful revolution.


Twitter

World currencies in a race to devalue means…:
https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1172221635958648838

How ‘to Bitcoin’:
https://twitter.com/melikmanukyan/status/1168969406501793792

Where to start your crypto journey (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1168808222527873025

Adding some context to Van Eck’s moves of offer a BTC product:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1168909634381471747

Look, see, understand:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaGEdwards/status/1168799874671923200

There’s a pattern here:
https://twitter.com/meshikharv/status/1168848992433606658

A contrarian perspective on trading but a considered one:
https://twitter.com/hodloncomrades/status/1172745092848701440

On passion (not that kind):
https://twitter.com/katherineykwu/status/1171972627113680896

A quick primer on global gold reserves:
https://twitter.com/theworldindex/status/1168725510651858946


Articles

Nic Carter explaining the Bitcoin revolution (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/a-most-peaceful-revolution-8b63b64c203e

A perspective on the long-term growth cycle of BTC:
https://medium.com/@hcburger1/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

An in-depth analysis of recent BTC price action and likely trade scenarios (highly recommended):
https://trybe.one/buying-btc-for-investors-current-market

High-value post on investing in the crypto space (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/cryptocurrency-investing-101-common-pitfalls-to-avoid-hopefreiheit-com-bc58829d3ef3

Token supply approaches examined (highly recommended)
https://medium.com/messaricrypto/crypto-monetary-policies-bef1779e1422

A collection of proposals/ideas on how to approach ‘fixing’ EOS governance (highly recommended):
https://www.eosgo.io/blog/ideas-that-might-fix-eos-governance/

Even some bankers decry current monetary policy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/deutsche-bank-warns-of-grave-side-effects-from-more-ecb-cuts


Podcast

Another informative discussion of BTC past, present, and future with a heavy hitter in the Bitcoin space (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/michael-goldstein-president-satoshi-nakamoto-institute/id1434060078?i=1000448789132


YouTube

Examining the question of individual BTC address safety:


Straightforward explanation of how Bitcoin functions with a simple primer on fiat:


What’s up with NEO – lots to dig into here in this interview with NEO’s head of global development (recommended – if only as an update):


EOS clearly has some governance issues (recommended):


This short-term call on gold is well worth considering (though has the ECB reset sentiment and boosted gold?):


Infographics

If only there was a pattern here…

https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1169155098716581889/photo/1


Interesting comparison of Bitcoin Cash v Lightning Network over the last year:

https://messari.io/c/research/messari-research-comparing-bitcoin-cash-and-bitcoin-s-lightning-network


Website / Utility

One of the first websites to bring together BTC resources. Very sparse landing page but a deep reservoir of material here spanning BTC’s entire operational life (highly recommended):

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/


This real-time representation of Bitcoin Cash v Bitcoin is supposed to show the transaction superiority of Bitcoin Cash but perhaps shows something else – you decide (BTC is the bottom lane).

https://txhighway.com/


A whale of a week in terms of learning opportunities. As always, looking forward to reading your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

EOS Price Showing Signs of Strength

EOS is testing resistance again as we speak. After making a run at the 3.90 area it took a little breather before making this next attempt.

What I like is that we only saw a very modest pullback on very light volume the past few days before today’s push.

There are no guarantees we see price breakthrough, but if it does then 4.20 and 4.60 are the next upside targets I am watching.

As for the downside, I’d like to see price hold 3.70 so that this higher low that was just put in remains valid.

Crypto Contest September 14: Vodi X

Vodi X (Bittrex: VDXUSDT) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Vodi X began a wave one advance on September 4. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on September 10, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Vodi X should be heading next towards the September 10 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Vodi is a mobile platform boasting 5+ million users in over 200 countries and is tokenizing its ecosystem by launching Vodi X. You can watch their latest update below.

(Sources: Vodi X and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

If you have done a couple large renovation projects then you know what I’m talking about.   When estimating rehab costs – always add a buffer on top of your total number.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

This isn’t about how good an investor is at estimating the costs of repairs and replacements.   Most of us can get good at that with some experience.

This is about the stuff that you generally can’t foresee. The stuff that just pops up, and trust me there will be things that pop-up.  Especially if you are working with properties that are much older.  In fact, the older the property the more likely you will have “surprises.”

Real Life Examples

I’m going to keep it simple and give you a “cheapie” I’ve personally experienced so not to scare you off.  Just know, the surprises can range much higher is cost.

This is one of the reasons I stress performing as much due diligence on a property as you can before purchasing.

There are many “surprises” that can be avoided – then there are some that are just part of doing business.

My latest example fits into that category.

Main Water Valves and Sleeves

We are finishing up a major renovation on a property that was built in 1901.  However, along the way we got caught with a few surprises.  One of which had to do with the main water shutoff and the sleeve pipe that runs to the water department’s main valve.

Long story short is the sleeve had become so cockeyed that it was not possible to access the valve to turn it back on.  Considering you need water in a home this was a bit of a must fix.

The real question was – is the sleeve bad or the valve too.   Either way we needed to have a qualified operator come in a do his thing to repair.

After widening the opening to the exterior piping/valve and doing a little digging out the earth he was able to access the sleeve to replace and test the valve.  

Good news – valve was fine.  Bad news – sleeve needed to be replaced.  $1200 later all is good an we can got water turned on.

Unexpected cost, yes, but at only $1200 feelt like a win.  Here’s the things though.  What happens when you have 4 or 5 items come up that cost that?

Since this property was so old that is exactly what happened because things needed to be up to code.  Replacing the side door entrance became a $1500 costs instead of $300 because of all the layers of siding that had been slapped on over the decades.  The flashing had been bumped out so far it was a mess and we basically needed to re-frame it.

These examples are the cheap ones.  I have heard plenty of stories from other investors that got hit with $5-10K “surprises.”

Add a Reno Budget Buffer

This is why on the majority of big rehab projects I always slap an extra $10K on my total expected budget.

If the numbers still work with that then I know in the end I should come out in decent shape and better yet, if the “surprises” are limited or not existent than the deal becomes even more profitable.

Always be working your numbers and buying right!

To get the full guide on how I buy right check out the videos or the book.  Remember to use the property calculator when analyzing deals!

Crypto Contest September 13: Contentos

Contentos (Binance: COSBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Contentos began a wave one advance on August 5. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 8, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Contentos should be heading next towards the August 8 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Contentos is a decentralized global content ecosystem. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Contentos and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Please click the link below to listen to the 53rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.



External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-can-crypto-fail/id1441492450?i=1000449580399

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-ck86f-bf4bbf


Transcript

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s episode examines the idea of crypto being a failed experiment destined for the ‘ah well’ ideas bin of history. Well, It’s possible, right? Right? No, no not at all.

Of course, in absolute terms anything is possible but setting aside cataclysmic events that wind back the tech clock – crypto is here to stay.

While it’s true that history is indeed littered with good ideas that went nowhere – the ideas phase of crypto is long past. For over a decade now we have seen a blockchain store and transact value without the need for permission from any central authority. This is powerful juju. Bitcoin has survived many trials and tribulations from exchange hacks to hard forks. While elegant design, a fortuitous genesis, and communal efforts have all played their part – it is the proof of concept that has supported BTC through each and every struggle it has faced. By proof of concept, I mean, man for the first time I history now has the means to transfer value across time and space without the need of a permission-giving middleman. There is no harbour master, no caravaneer, no border official, no bank notary. If you will it and you possess Bitcoin – you may now move wealth as you wish. Sure, there’s a fee, a toll if you like and miners which process transactions but this is procedural -automatic – no documents or permission are required.

Now Bitcoin may well fail. Indeed, every iteration of blockchain currently in the market may fail but the genie is most certainly out of the bottle. Believing that crypto will disappear assumes that people will simply abandon permissionless, value transfer and meekly return to the bank and state-dominated fold. Given the fundamental shift in financial autonomy that crypto offers, it is exceedingly unlikely that the tech itself would be abandoned even if the first generations of this tech were all to fail. I mean it’s possible, but when you ponder it, is it likely?

Now what is likely is that crypto will fork into two distinct implementations – one decentralized and empowering, the other state-controlled and dystopian. As with any technological innovation, it is as open to abuse as holistic use. China is already well on its way to rolling out a state-issued cryptocurrency – one which will no doubt aim to further increase its control over its citizens. State crypto will allow the government to track, coerce and punish those who would oppose it. Imagine a future where you post a comment in a chatroom, only to find yourself locked out of your own accounts…and unable to spend your ‘own ‘money all at the push of a button or the whim of some automated surveillance software…that day is nigh.

Concurrently, we will see the further development of decentralized networks for the storing and transacting of value – empowering both the individual and the economies of which they are part. In the coming years, both iterations of crypto will flourish in some cases within the same jurisdictions. As to the victor – decades lie between us and that outcome.

Thanks for listening.

Bitcoin Moves: Quick Update

In my last update we discussed a likely bounce around $9,950 to confirm a falling wedge on smaller time frames. Today, we’re seeing that bounce. If you took the trade, congratulations!

Screen Shot 2019-09-12 at 10.18.09 AM.png

In this update we’ll discuss where price may be heading next, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Feature Image By: Saul Gravy

Understanding the new rewarding curve…

(Pic from Gerd Altmann  in Pixabay)

I have been observing for a while how the new HF21/22 is affecting my Voting Power at steemworld… Actually, I have seen some weird numbers regarding the worth of the very same percentage of Voting Power produces depending on which post I am upvoting on…

For instance, a couple of hours ago I saw that one follower (@kokoliso) decided to upvote with the very same VOTING POWER on two of my posts written yesterday.

According to steemworld, the two actions were done at the same moment or at the same minute… @kokoliso upvoted me with the same voting weight, first on a post that was earning 1.01$ and then on a post that was earning $4.94

What is weird here is that seems that the effect on the post rewards was different. As you can see in the previous image, same Voting Power seems that produced $0.01 on the first and less rewarded post and $0.02 on the second that was more rewarded…

So, I have done the same action myself upvoting 2 posts of equal earned amounts applying the same voting weight:

As expected here, 35% of my maximum Voting weight produced the same effect on two posts of equal earned value…The value of my upvote on both of them is worth $0.02 (Curation: 0.048 SP)

But what happens in case I use the same voting weight on an already high rewarded post?

Simply my upvote impact on the post is double in this case, $0.04 for the same 35% Weight Upvote !!! (Curation: 0.058 SP)


And why is it possible?

It is possible because the famous new rewarding curve which has a chart similar to the following:

If you use STEEMNOW from @penguinpablo you can find another useful tool to understand this point. There you can get the following chart:

Essentially, in that tool you can play with the MIN and MAX SP values, by default it shows the rewarding curve depending on the accumulated shares produced by the upvoters , so, for instance, if your post is voted 100% weight by one only account with 80000 SP, or the equivalem sum of upvotes with smaller SP, the chart will be the following:

In grey is drafted the old rewarding curve, in blue the new rewarding curve…

As you can see 80000 SP voting at 100% would worth $1.061 in the old curve and $0.955 in the current rewarding curve… 80K SP vote is still losing rewards…

How much should worth the post to be upvoted in order to be profitable for the upvoter without losing or, even better, getting further more than the expected linear rewarding voting system?

The post starts to be “profitable” starting if the sum of SP of the upvoters reaches 150K SP or, at the current STEEM internal price around $1.98 as you can see below…

From that value of $1.99, your UPVOTE IS WORTH HIGHER and so, it also multiplies the author and curation rewards of upvoters…

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-9.png

I think this example demonstrates who is winning now, Big Stakers, some shy Bid-Bot users and a few succeed authors…

Now the question is… How do we solve the problem of becoming visible in order to be considered a good author to support?

Should they buy 150000 STEEM and power up?

Should they buy Bid-Bot upvotes?

I frankly do not know… I am happy with the downvote effect over abusers and also glad with the Steem Proposal System and 50/50 author and curators rewards… But this rewarding curve is really too aggressive…

@toofasteddie