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The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 73

March 21, 2020 Published by

A boring week of little note…Aside from unfolding global market chaos and central bank money printing to the tune of trillions. Overnight US repo markets are now set at one trillion dollars. The Bank of England has slashed rates to 0.1% the lowest since its founding in 1694. On and on the money printing responses go. Of course, volatility is at extreme levels and shows no signs of abetting. The dollar is crushing other fiat as dollar demand sky-rockets.

Crypto has rebounded somewhat but it would be highly optimistic to assume the cryptosphere will escape further market turmoil.

Bitcoin, in particular, is beginning to look like an opportunity. The contrast between BTC and fiat is becoming ever starker and perhaps just perhaps a moment of inflection is approaching. Remember, first and foremost, this is a time of opportunity and or planning – you can worry later.

Picks of the Week

Much to be learned from this thread by Alex Kruger. Also of great value is this discussion of the systemic failures embedded in the current financial house of cards. Beyond the chaos – Nick Szabo is always worth listening to/learning from.

Twitter

Collecting bullish-bearish metrics and contextualizing each (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1241032465038422017

Ari Paul’s observations on recent crypto price action (recommended):
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1238488177347891209

Caitlin Long dissects current financial market chaos (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1238915150368792576

Dump then moon?
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1240196283920515073

An opinion on the BitMex ‘hardware issue’:
https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status/1238818943147507713

BTC continues to function as intended:
https://twitter.com/ChrisEspley1/status/1238827992127868928

Bitcoin sayings:
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1111336990358810624

More on BitMex and their possible role in crashing the crypto market:
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1238306306043162625

On simultaneous demand and supply shocks:
https://twitter.com/jdorman81/status/1237919443734282240

A snapshot of recent central bank rate cuts (already out of date):
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1239379398308114433

This is not a drill – economic chaos is here and now (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1240330972039700480

Reflections on central bank policy/economic chaos through the lens of 2008:
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1239861925724422146

Articles

Analyzing cryptos recent price collapse (highly recommended):
https://multicoin.capital/2020/03/17/march-12-the-day-crypto-market-structure-broke/

In this moment of crisis, Bitcoin shows its superiority over Wall Street:
https://medium.com/in-bitcoin-we-trust/in-the-midst-of-the-crisis-bitcoin-shows-its-superiority-over-wall-street-d9d8584526b3

What happens to Bitcoin in a financial crisis (highly recommended):
https://www.tokendaily.co/blog/what-happens-to-bitcoin-in-financial-crisis

Who sold off?
https://blockfoliorefresh.substack.com/p/solid-evidence-that-the-btc-selloff

A basic overview of Bitcoin’s design/purpose:
https://www.spectator.com.au/2020/03/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-bitcoin-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

Play the long BTC game:
https://medium.com/shiftcrypto/prepare-your-bitcoins-for-your-heirs-dfc537811df2

Smart contracts and the insurance industry:
https://blog.chain.link/how-smart-contracts-can-decrease-information-asymmetry-build-trust-and-revolutionize-the-insurance-industry/

Discussing EOS token policy changes:
https://www.eoswriter.io/167603_eos-token-burn-wps-and-governance-featuring-ryan-bethem-of-chintai-io.eos

Arguing that the Corona virus is providing cover to failed government policies:
https://mises.org/wire/governments-are-using-coronavirus-distract-their-own-failures

Is the Corona virus about to call America’s bluff?:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-showed-america-wasnt-task/608023/

Podcasts

A true titan of the cryptosphere – listen and learn (highly recommended):

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/nick-szabo-on-cypherpunks-money-and-bitcoin

Discussing the stock to flow model pre-price collapse but just as relevant (recommended):

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5j6IBksfCZIEqyjAyqCxFP

YouTube

Alessio Rastani on when to buy (recommended):

Where to now post-crash discussion (recommended):

Sell, stay the course?

Caitlin Long on the range of deep structural financial issues which are now being exposed (highly recommended):

Focused on Australia but nonetheless provides a good overview of the current market challenges (non-crypto but relevant):

On central banks (hilarious presentation but highly recommended):

Infographics

Central banks scrambling to cut rates – historic lows abound:

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1240750881294807041/photo/1

Volatility anyone?

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1241313291105964033/photo/1

This was the state of the BitMex order book when they had their ‘hardware issue’ 19 million dollars to zero…:

https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status/1238283621816889345/photo/1

Let’s not forget there’s a sea of opportunity out there:

https://twitter.com/Brad_Laurie/status/1239352477662605312/photo/1

Website / Utility

Useful DeFi comparison site:

https://defiscore.io/

Stay strapped in – plenty of ups and downs to come. As always, opportunity will present itself.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

In trading move technically and not emotionally BTC / USD

February 19, 2020 Published by

Hello, everybody! :), today I wanted to share with all of you this chart I made where I put in perspective why this year 2020 I want to be highly bullish, we have an excellent scenario here present that any trader or investor would buy, the hyper bullish triad of a bullish flag, a cup & handle and an inverted SHS, all the package together at the same price!! far from the emotional chatter that can be read by crypto twitter during the last week, in which most tend to repeat at any time of the trend just the cry of let’s go to ATH!, without taking into account the corrections on the way, as a holder or long term trader, that’s not bad, but for a day trader or swing trader, that’s important 

I hope this post and the chart will be useful to understand the reason of this next third bullish wave, out of this year’s halving or the gold cross that many are announcing these days without taking into account that these indicators don’t work in real time, the cross will happen in due time after the correction and after the strong rise that we will have during the month of March, but for now it is time to wait for the train to take us to the launch area where the rocket is ready along with the strong volume investor ready to go to the moon, if you have not yet bought, this will be your last chance to do so at a very good price, BTC will not return to that level 

This post only represents my personal opinion, it is not an investment advice, I am not a financial advisor, always remember to make your own analysis when trading 

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Be aware BTC / USD – 4H

February 10, 2020 Published by

The price is forming a bearish pattern in the upper zone, the structure formed so far suggests a strong fall 1 – 5, we still do not have confirmation, the price must break the support diagonally of the full wave and below the support located at 9500 to confirm the movement, however, the break can be strong, for that reason I am giving this update in time in case you do not have your operations protected, we have demand zones within the range of 9500 – 9400, the next demand zone is located in the 9100, the third demand zone is located within the range of 8700 – 8200.

Remember that much of the market would be affected by a strong correction, especially USDT pairs.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Binance’s 10th Token Burn

January 18, 2020 Published by

Binance was founded and
run by the one of the great minds in the crypto space, Changpeng Zhao aka CZ.
CZ was originally a coder who built high-frequency trading systems on Wall
Street. He eventually moved into the crypto space working for crypto
wallet/block explorer service Blockchain.info and serving as CTO for the crypto
project OKCoin.

But then CZ lauched Binance in the 2017 and in nine months, Binance became the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume making CZ a billionaire in the process. The rest is kind of history, but Binance continues to make history and make money moves.

In July 2019, Binance created a new entity in Singapore with Vertex Ventures. In Nov. 2019, they acquired WazirX, India’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Recently, they made it possible for the people in Thailand to trade and invest in cryptos.

Related image

Why the emphasis to expand in Asia? Southeast Asia is the cryptocurrency capital of the world. Most of the bitcoin trading volume and cryptocurrency demand comes from this region. South Koreans spend billions of dollars each year on digital goods like avatars and digital gifts.

South Koreans spend billions of dollars each year on digital goods like avatars and digital gifts. Combined with their love for gambling and speculation, along with their love for digital goods, buying cryptocurrencies instantly became a part of the culture.

Binance just announced its 10th successful quarterly burn in a blog today, and with it, a total of 2.216 million BNB tokens worth $38.8 million were burnt from October to December 2019.

Image result for binance 10th burn

When you think about it, burning tokens in crypto space serves the same purpose of companies on the equity markets buying back their shares…it’s all about the perception of supply and demand and how we value that supply and demand of shares/tokens. But in the crypto space, unlike the equity markets, when a crypto company buys back their token to burn, that token disappears forever.

The main reason for burning a cryptocurrency is to increase the value of the other tokens that are in circulation. Many cryptocurrencies have a finite total number that can exist and therefore, assuming the demand for the token remains the same, the value should theoretically go up if there are less in circulation.

But even if Binance didn’t have any token burns, their token price would still go up over time because they continue to make history and innovate. So where is price headed next, the chart suggests, price is heading to the weekly supply at $23.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

technical analysis TT / BTC

January 16, 2020 Published by

TT seen from the 1D time frame we can observe how the candlestick structure is forming a double floor in the larger figure as a signal of trend reversal, this setup if completed correctly would take us to the high profit target located within the price range of 0.00000215 – 0.00000225 where the weekly offer is located, indicated within the chart by the purple horizontal, the smaller figure has formed a descending wedge where we should have a third touch on the diagonal resistance to later fall below the support located at 0.00000079 indicated inside the chart by the red horizontal, if this happens we could have a recovery pullback below this level, it is a movement we need to have to form the first HL as the first sign of a change in trend, at all times the price must remain above the diagonal support we see inside the chart by the larger diagonal also in black.

TT seen from the 1M timeline we can see how the current candlestick is forming an important doji over the diagonal, if we close in this way we would have an excellent candlestick pattern for a trend reversal, the candlestick is still young, therefore we must wait until the close to confirm.

In conclusion, TT is in an excellent buying moment, the higher temporality in the middle of the month is managing to hold on the diagonal despite the strong selling pressure that we can see through the long upper wick that has formed us, within the temporality of 1D the scenario is quite positive, once we get the break of the lower figure, the price should form a range that starts a game of EW that would push the price towards the range of 0.00000215 – 0.00000225, within the chart I have traced the possible trajectory of these movements, the distances and times may vary, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

WTC / BTC Technical Analysis

January 15, 2020 Published by

WTC seen from the 1W seasonality we can observe how the candlestick structure has formed a long 2 year downward wedge, currently the price is at an excellent moment of the trend, ending the wave (5) of momentum, at any time we should have a strong momentum towards the diagonal resistance of the major figure coinciding with the weekly offer located at 0.0000861 indicated within the chart by the pink horizontal, this would be our first stop before a correction towards the weekly demand that would form the price with the upward closing of the weekly candlestick, if in the retracement we form a HL we would have a very good signal of continuation of the upward trend that would be confirmed by the breakout and confirmation of the major figure.

WTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the (EW) play for the long term, the key points of the run I have marked within the chart, the first is located at 0.0001232, the second point is located at 0.0003040, the key bid is located at 0.0004052 and I have marked it by the horizontal gold color in the MONTHLY (B).

WTC seen from the 4H time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price is looking for the point (5) of the current downward momentum, the ideal would be to find an entry below the S/R FLIP 4H located at 0.0000413, indicated within the chart by the blue horizontal, to see a reversal we need a reclaim of that support and move towards the resistance of the lower figure.

In conclusion, WTC is in a good moment to buy with a medium and long term view, this pair has an excellent profit margin if the current scenario that I have shown in the graph is fulfilled, the points are technically calculated, however, the times and distances can vary according to the acceleration of each movement, this must always be taken into account when reading a TA. In the minor temporality, WTC should fall a bit more below 0.0000413 to try to recover that level as support, so I recommend to be very attentive to the price action in 4H and 1D and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the movement

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 63

January 11, 2020 Published by

Yet another challenging week to recap – there was a literal avalanche of good/compelling material to choose from. Of course, this is a great problem to have. From elegant explanations of the value proposition of LINK to insightful reflections on the year just past and the decade to come. A wealth of fascinating content awaits the curious crypto enthusiast!

Pick of the Week

If you only have time for one thing – check out this podcast re the 21 lessons of Bitcoin – you won’t regret the investment.

Twitter

Running Bitcoin off the internet:
https://twitter.com/nwoodfine/status/1214238101796638721

A distilled version of Messari’s 2020 theses report (recommended):
https://twitter.com/elainegija/status/1214059271530467328

Two areas of BTC planning worth thinking on (recommended):
https://twitter.com/BTCSchellingPt/status/1215373435469062144

A bullish perspective on BTC for 2020:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/Noakp7n5-Why-I-believe-Bitcoin-will-retest-All-Time-Highs-by-July-1-2020/

An ETH equivalent of Silk road has yet to emerge:
https://twitter.com/teo_leibowitz/status/1215072430588342272

Time to move from research to market?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1215365982694170624

An advocate for LINK explains why it already has a significant market advantage (recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheShipIsMoving/status/1214623803961225217

Sometimes it’s better to keep your opinions to yourself (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1215428990724386816

It’s good to be rich (who knew?):
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1213137465327751169

The US economy is fine, no really:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1215428090656018432

Articles

BTC by the numbers 11 years on (highly recommended):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/happy-birthday-bitcoin-heres-a-look-at-bitcoins-11th-year-by-the-numbers

From skeptic to Bitcoiner a common path (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@ssaurel/from-skeptical-to-bitcoiner-the-7-steps-journey-followed-by-more-and-more-people-d199b8d2d5da

Crypto policy trends and predictions for 2020 (recommended):
https://messari.io/article/crypto-policy-trends-and-predictions-for-2020

The decade ahead (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-will-happen-to-cryptocurrency-in-the-2020s-d93746744a8f

The decade just past (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-happened-in-crypto-over-the-last-decade-ee6a2552d630

Crypto banking is on its way (recommended):
https://blog.deribit.com/insights/the-great-race-to-crypto-banking/

Thinking big about EOS (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/dappiness-solutions/eosio-think-bigger-c10dfadedc63

China’s smallest province has become a blockchain hub:
https://technode.com/2020/01/02/blockchain-hub-takes-root-in-chinas-smallest-province/

An exploration of the Coinbase approach to crypto:
https://nakamoto.com/coinbases-pragmatic-crypto-culture/

An admirably in-depth report of 2019 for XRP:
https://www.xrparcade.com/news/xrp-2019-yearly-report/

Deciphering DeFi (recommended):
https://nakamoto.com/beginners-guide-to-defi/

Podcast

Bitcoin focused – lots to learn here (highly recommended):

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/140/

YouTube

A light-hearted but nonetheless insightful look back on 2019 (highly recommended):

Despite a questionable track record – some useful insights into 2020 (recommended):

Meaningful progress on EOS congestion with changes to REX:

An excellent overview of Filecoin (not a project to invest in but useful to be aware of imo):

Will the equity party end with a bang or a whimper?

Infographic

Now that’s a healthy-looking network:

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1212003395978092545/photo/1

Website / Utility

A new and growing resource for though-provoking articles on crypto (controversially not just BTC focused):

https://nakamoto.com/

Yet again, a whole lot to take-in from just one week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Unusual Options Activity In Met Life

January 11, 2020 Published by

MetLife, Inc. engages in
the insurance, annuities, employee benefits, and asset management businesses.  The company offers life, dental, group short-
and long-term disability, individual disability, accidental death and
dismemberment, vision, and accident and health coverages, etc. Serving
approximately 100 million customers, MetLife has operations in more than 40
countries and holds leading market positions in the United States, Japan, Latin
America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

MetLife was named Life
Insurance Company of the Year at the 2019 Middle East Insurance Industry Awards
(MIIA), organized by Middle East Insurance Review. As the fourth time recipient
of the award, MetLife was commended for its customer focus and recognized for
its efforts in enhancing the customer experience.

Last month, MetLife was
named one of America’s “Most Responsible Companies” by Newsweek
magazine. MetLife was the top-ranked insurance company on Newsweek’s inaugural
list, and number 19 of all 300 companies recognized.

Several months ago, MetLife got into the financial service business when it bought Bequest, Inc. Bequest helps customers draw up legally valid wills and estate planning documents online.

But an interesting move Metlife
made several weeks ago, was when it bought PetFirst Healthcare, a fast-growing
pet health insurance administrator.

The love affair with
pets, in particular cats and dogs goes back to the Egyptian times. Back in the
Egyptian times, dogs and cats were laid to rest in elaborate tombs decorated
with inscriptions, furnished with treasure and scented by incense. It’s
believed that dogs and cats improve human physical and mental health.

68% of households in
America have a pet. This is double the percentage of households that have
children. And pet owners will do practically anything or their cat or dog.

The pet insurance market is under-penetrated and fast-growing. The roughly 85 million families that own pets in the United States spend $18 billionii annually on veterinary care, yet, as of 2018, less than 2 percentiii of pets were insured. Following the acquisition, PetFirst will continue to market pet insurance through animal welfare societies and its direct-to-consumer channel. Beginning in the summer of 2020, MetLife will offer this pet insurance to employers through its leading group benefits distribution channel, reaching approximately 41 million employees and dependents across the U.S.

Katie Blakeley, CEO of PetFirst said, “For more than 15 years, we have proudly focused on developing products and services to meet the growing and evolving needs of pet parents across the U.S. During this time, we have seen pet insurance continue to gain importance as a valuable product for families. With MetLife’s tremendous reach and resources, we see a strong opportunity to help more pet parents get access to pet insurance and alleviate the potential financial burden of a sick or injured pet.”

Source

Metlife now offers a broader suite of products to serve their customers and their financial strengths is admired by investors.  So it only makes sense that yesterday, I noticed unusual options activity. The Smart Money bought over 50,000 March call options with strike price at $55.

What’s interesting about this trade is that price is approaching a weekly demand zone at $54.50. If I had to put my money on the zone or the Smart Money, my money would go to the Smart Money all the time. Stay tuned.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Technical Analysis BTC / USD

January 9, 2020 Published by

BTC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candlestick has tested the important supply zone located at 8215 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal color, coinciding with the diagonal resistance of the major figure, this was an expected movement to complete the WXY correction pattern, the price should now go in search of the weekly demand located within the range of 6200 – 6314 to form the point (Y).

BTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price has formed a high at 8158, this supply level has not been taken, therefore, we could still have some confirmation wick in that price before the price gives us a signal to continue falling, we have an important support located at 7629 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal, if for the moment the price does not take the supply today, we could see a rebound in that support looking for the supply level at 8158.

In conclusion, BTC has formed an important high under the resistance of this parallel channel, the 8215 has been tested correctly leaving us with a maximum at 8500, for now we should wait for the price to continue falling or form a LH under the diagonal resistance to have confirmation, while the price does not claim the level located at 8215 we can not expect the price to continue rising, Based on the WXY pattern, we should have a new entry in the range of 6200 – 6314 where the price would form a double floor as a reversal signal in key support and confirmation point (Y), therefore, I recommend following the 1D price action very closely and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Did You Miss The Gold Move…Don’t Worry…

January 7, 2020 Published by

Lat month, gold fell below the psychological whole number of $1500 and was 5% down from the 6-year-peak reached in September due to profit taking and investors wanting to take on more risks. But the charts told you where the sellers were going to step before hand and for that matter where the buyers were going to step in before hand as well based on the monthly supply and demand zones.

Gold never did hit the monthly demand, missed the zone by $5 and has since rallied. The US air strike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump that killed Qassem Soleimani, has been the catalyst not only for gold, but all the other precious metals as well.

But if you missed the rally in gold, don’t worry, according to one article I read this morning, gold is due for a pull back.

Gold is almost guaranteed to record losses in the next two weeks, if history is any guide.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the yellow metal soared to 86 on Monday, well above the level of 70 that typically suggests securities are overbought. Previously, there have been only three times since 2000 when the RSI rose above 85, and in each instance bullion fell over the next 10 trading days. The loss averaged 1% compared with a gain of 7% over the previous 10 session.

To be sure, in all three occasions — October 2010, February 2016 and June 2019 — gold eventually resumed its rally. But the momentum had slowed. Gold performs best when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions, the bulk of the moves in rates and the dollar may be over for now. And the same is probably true for the bounce in gold, at least in the short term.

Source

From my perspective, there is only one reason why gold will pull back and that’s because price are in a monthly supply zone.

Supply and demand zones can often indicate institutional buying and selling. The big market participants cannot just enter one trade at once, they need to slowly build their position over time. And often their positions are so large that they will absorb most unfilled orders before price make big and explosive moves on price charts.

Take for instance the daily supply at $1560. Price entered the daily supply and two days later shot down, but when price returned to the zone several months later, well there weren’t any unfilled orders remaining at that level.

On Sunday, price gapped up into a monthly supply zone and has sense formed a shooting star candle, which is is a bearish and signals a reversal.

But again, the shooting star only formed because the Smart Money was able to fill, unfilled orders at that level. Ideally, what I would like to see is price breach the monthly supply at $1600, pull back, then move higher to the monthly supply at $1700. But this may or may not happen in that order. So if you missed the rally and want to get long, two level to consider are the daily demand at $1520, but I think the better level to go long is at $1475.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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