Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy
Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.
As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.
Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:
Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.
My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.
Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.
Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:
And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:
…and similar patterns from earlier times too.
The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.
I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.
I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.
I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.
Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:
BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
I have been blogging since early 2018, not what I would consider to be “long” in blogging terms, but long enough to have become a part of the furniture. During that time I have seen big changes in the crypto blogging space: some rapid, some more sedate.
One of the sedate ones has now become too obvious to ignore: it’s too quiet in here…
How often do you make new followers on blogging platforms these days? It still happens, but it’s not nearly as frequent as it was a year ago, is it? How many comments do you get on each blog post?
Despite the best efforts of many bloggers who frequently leave comments and engage wherever they can (thank you guys – I really appreciate the efforts you make – both on my posts and on the posts of other bloggers), the numbers are still way off what they once were. If I look at Steemit, the platform I started blogging (and still use to this day), I now so rarely get comments that I don’t even check my replies daily anymore! At one stage I would check replies several times a day.
There is also a notable drop in post earnings: my own account has been hard hit – though granted – some of that has to do with the price of the tokens one earns. Even so: token price is a reflection of interest in the token, and interest in STEEM is disturbingly low! I had hoped to be able to earn a living from blogging, though if this carries on I can see that I shall have to make other plans. Even some of the top Steemit bloggers are earning pathetically little compared to what they once did, a clear sign that interaction is shrinking dramatically.
It’s not just Steemit that has been hit, Trybe is visibly empty too. Here, take a look at the bottom of “page 1” of my Trybe friends list. I like to use this list to see who has been online lately. I normally select each member who has been online since I last visited, check their blog and then comment on their new posts. But so many of them have just not been online lately…
It’s hard to engage with friends who are not there! Imagine what pages 2 and 3 look like! I miss the regular posts of some very good bloggers who used to post frequently. Some of my Steemit friends haven’t been seen in nearly a year!
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not blaming anybody for anything here: neither the platforms nor the bloggers. I fully understand that it takes time to generate and curate good content. (I hate the system-gaming heajin-style copy-&-paste posts which have little to no effort put into them) Time IS money, and not all of us can afford to spend several hours a day on crypto social media platforms – especially when payouts are poor. It isn’t all about the money, but it does become “not economically viable” at some point.
I sense a form of despondency among my fellow crypto bloggers, and that is to be expected. The altcoin market remains nightmarish in many respects, that is having a clear effect in the platforms based on those coins. I think that STEEM and the STEEM-based platforms are suffering from that particularly hard: Dan Larimer’s middle-child is playing the role of classic neglected middle-child to a T.
Personally I have already sold off quite a lot of my STEEM, and have suggested that others may want to follow suit. I know that many other STEEM holders have already sold off a significant portion of their holdings.
I won’t be selling of all of my STEEM, and when I do sell it, it’s to buy other altcoins – not to cash out to fiat!
I am well aware that altcoins are not popular right now. I have seen the BTC value of my altcoin portfolio plunge during the last few months. Bitcoin maximalists are everywhere, I don’t recall ever seeing anti-altcoin sentiment this high before (probably because the majority of altcoins have not been around for long enough).
I am NOT a supporter of the saying “The trend is your friend”. Instead I consider the trend to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, somebody who leads you along the path, and then once you become complacent, stabs you in the back with a sharp trend reversal. As a Value Investor and a Contrarian, my default instinct is to oppose the trend. But what does that mean in real terms?
There is blood on the streets. The altcoins are bleeding.
We ALL know: “Buy Low, Sell High”. Yet when the price of something is low, what do we do? We panic sell. When price surges high, what do we do? We FOMO buy.
Hear the wisdom of Bit Brain: NOW is the time to BUY altcoins!
I believe that this is a golden opportunity. Bitcoin can’t keep climbing alone – it makes no economic sense! I saw a Tweet this morning which said that the Bitcoin Whitepaper is the only one worth reading. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are MANY good altcoins out there with a solid token economics model. They will make money, irrespective of what BTC does. I agree that BTC is the only real store-of-value crypto, but it is not the only crypto that has value! I still expect good altcoins to thrash BTC in terms of ROI over the next year or two.
Mark my words, sentiment towards altcoins WILL swing around again, and when it does, make sure that you are holding some good ones!
And this is why I’m keeping some STEEM. This is why I am slowly letting my TRYBE tokens grow in number. It’s just like mining BTC: too often miners shut down when it becomes “unprofitable” to mine. But what if they just kept on mining – took the short-term loss – and then sold that BTC when the market recovered? They would make a fortune in profits, especially because mining difficulty drops when miners pull out.
If TRYBE ever “Moons” by 100x and becomes worth $0.10 per token, then you can’t expect to still earn 1000 TRYBE for each post that you write! BUT YOU CAN EARN THAT TODAY!
So I suggest holding onto that which you can accumulate now, because markets ARE cyclic – often unpredictable, but cyclic nonetheless. I suggest that you keep on blogging, keep on curating, keep on supporting one another. We ALL know that crypto is still in it’s early days and that a lot of money will still enter this asset class. When it does so, it would be good if we could have our platforms ready to receive the influx of new interest, interest which would greatly boost the value of our tokens again.
So take heart, don’t feel down just because your altcoins are worth nothing. Don’t give up just because your earnings are very low. I am literally betting the future of my financial success on crypto – and honestly – I’m not too worried about it. For me it’s more a “when?” than an “if”. (No: don’t follow my example, I didn’t really have a choice due to a rather unique set of circumstances. Don’t put more into crypto than what you can afford to lose!)
Hang in there crypto friends, the altcoins will make a comeback. You’ll see.
“It’s always darkest before the dawn.”
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Yesterday we discussed the potential for a bull trap. I told you if the breakout was a bull trap, it’d likely reject at $11,050. That’s exactly what happened. As of now, price is again trading within the prior area of consolidation around $10,400.
Bears executed a simple death cross (50 MA below 200 MA) on the 4 hour chart a few days ago. Since then, bulls have been fighting to prevent a follow through exponential death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA) on the 4 hour chart.
In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may go from here, key areas to watch, your questions and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.
After a nasty drop that took price through the 108 support litecoin found support and has rallied hard from $77.
Big V or Little V?
Looking at the daily chart you can see price has already begun a V bottom and came right to the last little consolidation point during the sell off right around 105.
Intraday price has seen a little fight at that price so the question is will price stall here and just give us a little V bottom recovery or are we set to see a push all the way back into the 120’s.
That would be a full V bottom recovery and is very plausible. I do like that after price rallied hard we got a little sideways consolidation for a day and a half before this current candle pushed higher again.
On the upside…breaching 105 to broach the old 108 level is a start. After that I think there is a possible clear run to 120.
As for the downside, well really price needs to hold 95 in order for the price action to remain bullish in regard to this move.
I did add some long at 99 last night with a stop loss just below 95. If price struggles to pass 108 in the coming days I’ll consider taking profits otherwise I want to see 120 for a full V bottom recovery.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate right below our $10,650 resistance. Price is getting squeezed within a tighter range. It looks like we should have resolution in the next 24 hours. We’re seeing a potential bullish ascending triangle, which would suggest a break to the upside to at least $11,050. Bears are struggling to confirm a 4 hour death cross on the 50 and 200 EMA. This truly is an interesting battle to watch.
In today’s video we discuss where price may go from here, price targets, the Litecoin halving and your questions. I hope you find it helpful.
After yesterday’s quick $1,200+ rise, bitcoin was met with tough resistance at $10,650. In my prior video I warned of a break down to retest $10,000. As of now, price dropped as low as $10,100 before finding support. It’s currently trading around $10,350.
In today’s video we discuss where price may go from here, the 4 hour Death Cross, traps to avoid and so much more. I also answer your questions. I hope you find it helpful.
A quick recap: In Part 1 we saw that Trump, while not a typical politician, is nonetheless turning on Bitcoin in order to protect that which he holds most dear: his horde of fiat money-based wealth. We saw that governments around the world have turned to age-old propaganda strategies to grab and hold onto power – the very same strategies developed and used by Joseph Goebbels to bring the Nazis to power in 1930s Germany, and to keep them there once in office.
We saw that Liberty – our very right to make our own choices such as “I want to use Bitcoin instead of USD” – is under threat. Today I want to elaborate a little on that threat and on how propaganda is being used to turn the population against its own liberties.
As with yesterday, I will not just be using my own words today. Once again I will stand on the shoulders of giants and borrow their words in the form of a series of quotes.
You are being lied to. We all are. America is a great example of this, so I will keep this post American in flavour (or should that be “flavor”? ), because the USA is an example which most of us can relate to.
As I have said before, it is disturbing to see that the US is STILL playing the “Russia = Communist = Enemy” card, a good three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The USSR is long gone and Russia has been a democracy for decades; yet the old “Evil Communist Ruskies” narrative – which is ingrained deep into the psyche of the American populus – is still the go-to rhetoric used by politicians over and over again. What did Goebbels teach us in Part 1?
“THE ESSENCE OF PROPAGANDA CONSISTS IN WINNING PEOPLE OVER TO AN IDEA SO SINCERELY, SO VITALLY, THAT IN THE END THEY SUCCUMB TO IT UTTERLY AND CAN NEVER ESCAPE FROM IT.”
“…THE RANK AND FILE ARE USUALLY MUCH MORE PRIMITIVE THAN WE IMAGINE. PROPAGANDA MUST THEREFORE ALWAYS BE ESSENTIALLY SIMPLE AND REPETITIOUS.”
“THIS IS THE SECRET OF PROPAGANDA: THOSE WHO ARE TO BE PERSUADED BY IT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY IMMERSED IN THE IDEAS OF THE PROPAGANDA, WITHOUT EVER NOTICING THAT THEY ARE BEING IMMERSED IN IT.”
“THE ENGLISH FOLLOW THE PRINCIPLE THAT WHEN ONE LIES, IT SHOULD BE A BIG LIE, AND ONE SHOULD STICK TO IT.”
“IF YOU TELL A LIE LONG ENOUGH, IT BECOMES THE TRUTH.”
This is how the people of the USA continue to be led, or “misled”, if you prefer.
Because there will always be those intelligent enough to question the politicians and their mass media (their tool of manipulation), a defence mechanism has to be put in place. You can’t expect the politicians themselves to run around putting out fires, that sounds too much like hard work, and it could be dangerous if they miss a fire and it grows too big.
No, what they have done is to build a self-defence system into their propaganda; a clever system which is a diabolical as it is ingenious.
As much as the modern Politically Correct Liberals hate to hear this, as nations we tend to differ greatly from one another. We have various physical and mental traits which define us and differentiate us from each other. One of the traits which I admire the most in Americans is their patriotism. The average American is a patriot at heart – someone who loves their country and will readily defend it against attack or ridicule. Perversely, it is this good-intentioned patriotism that the government has re-purposed to serve their evil agenda. By portraying their own interests as “patriotic”, the politicians seek to squash any criticism of them as a ruling class. Therefore, anybody who shouts out against the rulers gets shot down by the crowd, because such a person is obviously “unpatriotic” or “anti-American” – the politicians don’t even have to lift a finger.
Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. Those speaking against the ruling class are those who can see through the lies, they are those who seek to make America better and who seek to preserve the liberty of the common man!
For this reason, today I will be focusing on patriotism and what is REALLY means – NOT what the politicians say it means!
That was a slightly lengthy, but necessary introduction. I hope that you are now in the right frame of mind to read these quotes which I have sourced for you. Let’s now take a look at patriotism, liberty, politics and a few related topics, as seen through the eyes of those who are well qualified to speak on these topics:
Let us begin with a stark reminder that we can’t just rest on our laurels and expect freedom to continue as a way of life:
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Jefferson remains my favourite US president of all time: a true visionary and a true patriot.
Many years later, Reagan echoed Jefferson’s words:
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.
It is clear that if you wish to live free, you must be prepared to continually fight for your freedom, for there will be a continuous stream of tyrants who would like to take it away and enslave you. The next two men quoted knew all too well what I’m talking about:
There is no easy walk to freedom anywhere, and many of us will have to pass through the valley of the shadow of death again and again before we reach the mountaintop of our desires.
Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you’re a man, you take it.
Lincoln was another one of the great American Presidents. Like Jefferson (and Bit Brain) he was a visionary who could see the path of the future long before it actually happened:
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.
The government does not seek to protect your liberty through its laws, it seeks to limit and restrain you. Just look at Bitcoin and crypto regulations in the US! Do those regulations really help you as a crypto investor, or do they hinder you? Is your government for you, or against you? Is it infringing on your liberties?
Liberty has never come from Government. Liberty has always come from the subjects of it. The history of liberty is a history of limitations of governmental power, not the increase of it.
I speak out against representative democracies all the time, for they are “democracies” only in name. Since the majority of people have no actual say in the running of their countries, most modern democracies have decayed into socialism in democratic clothing. They preach “democracy” yet display socialism. Look at the quote below, then decide which you think America is today: Democratic or Socialist.
Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.
~Alexis de Tocqueville
Once again, Jefferson hits the nail right on the head:
Rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add ‘within the limits of the law’ because law is often but the tyrant’s will, and always so when it violates the rights of the individual.
CLEARLY something is VERY wrong with our modern “democracies”! For starters: they are no longer democratic!
You have no say in government. They do not listen to you! Voting is a voting designed to placate you through the illusion that you have a say. Try to change a law. Try to ignore a rule. See how much say you really have! Politicians dominate your life and make you live according to their rules! Is that how America was supposed to be?
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
George Orwell criticised government hypocrisy when he spoke about the same topic in “Animal Farm”. In his book, the pigs (a parody of the ruling class) stated the following:
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.
So do I have a point, or am I just some trouble-stirring, anti-American, unpatriotic communist? Let’s look at a few more quotes to find out:
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.
You’re not supposed to be so blind with patriotism that you can’t face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who says it.
Patriotism consists not in waving the flag, but in striving that our country shall be righteous as well as strong.
Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.
Who are the real patriots when government is corrupt: those speaking against them, or the brainwashed masses who have good intentions which have been horribly manipulated? He probably didn’t intend to, but modern day politician Joe Biden gave us the answer:
Fighting corruption is not just good governance. It’s self-defense. It’s patriotism.
But let’s steer away from modern politicians, they’re all far too much a part of the broken system. Let’s get back to the good old guys and the non-politicians:
I do this real moron thing, and it’s called thinking. And apparently I’m not a very good American because I like to form my own opinions.
Remember, these are not internet bloggers, these words come from an American President!
Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official, save exactly to the degree in which he himself stands by the country. It is patriotic to support him insofar as he efficiently serves the country. It is unpatriotic not to oppose him to the exact extent that by inefficiency or otherwise he fails in his duty to stand by the country. In either event, it is unpatriotic not to tell the truth, whether about the president or anyone else.
Perhaps James Baldwin gave the best description of what patriotism really is:
I love America more than any other country in the world and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.
… and Arthur Schopenhauer gave the best description of what it is not:
Every miserable fool who has nothing at all of which he can be proud, adopts as a last resource pride in the nation to which he belongs; he is ready and happy to defend all its faults and follies tooth and nail, thus reimbursing himself for his own inferiority.
Indeed, I think that some of the more famous thinkers of their time misunderstood the issue of patriotism and how politicians manipulate it. They grew so bitter because of this that they sadly turned against patriotism altogether. They thought that the misguided masses were the patriots, missing the truth that the real patriots were not the masses supporting government, but rather the intelligent few opposing it:
You’ll never have a quiet world till you knock the patriotism out of the human race.
~George Bernard Shaw
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious.
It’s very sad to see the level of frustration that those men were driven to.
So as not to end of a negative note, let’s look at two more quotes of those who properly understood patriotism:
The greatest patriotism is to tell your country when it is behaving dishonorably, foolishly, viciously.
A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.
I hope that I have sufficiently illustrated the difference between patriotism and “patriotism”. I hope I have shown the difference between being against your government and being against your country. I hope I have shown that to best serve your country, you need to oppose those who seek to oppress you. I hope that I have shown that governments seek to remove your liberties and control you.
It is up to us: (you, me and all the other common folk) to stand up for what is right.Nobody is going to fight this fight for us!Government is Definitely not going to fight For us – they are the main problem!
It would be nice if we had a modern visionary to guide us: somebody who understands Liberty, Patriotism, Politics, Money and even Crypto; luckily for you, you have just such a mentor – you’re reading his blog right now. Mr Mentor tells you this with the utmost certainty: through cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology we can render governments obsolete. We can remove their power and the money supply which enables them. They can’t stop us unless we let them.
The time has come to fight. The time has come to fight for what is right, to fight for our rights!
Through crypto we can let liberty prevail – not governments.
I will be fighting this fight either until we are victorious, or until I draw my final breath. I hope to see you there fighting beside me.
MATIC seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the price has reached a point ITZ where it has found demand and the current candle is being pushed above the support located at 0.01230, however, I still do not see any technical indicator confirming the movement, nor do we have any reversal pattern here, the candlestick structure is still inside the falling wedge so it could still touch the resistance of the wedge to make us a new LL where it would be a stronger buy signal for the bulls.
MATIC seen from the temporality of 4H we can see more closely the current movement of candles within the descending wedge that we have mentioned in 1D, we see that the current bullish candlestick momentum is finding resistance below the previous HL, this is a signal of continuation of the bearish movement, there usually has to be a succession of three HL structures, if the price starts to fall we should see the price fall towards the area of demand marked on the chart within the blue rectangle located within the price range of 0.00883 – 0.01029 where we would have a trend reversal pattern and a much more contracted price within the figure that would cause a strong bullish break.
In conclusion, the price seems to be forming a continuation of the bearish movement, so I recommend looking for a better entry into the demand zone of the blue rectangle, once we reach that zone the price is more likely to make the bullish break and reach our goal, in the chart I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price should follow in the next candles to reach 0.02756, which is an important level of supply that we must consider.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.