The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 46

A ridiculous number of high-quality articles have crossed my path this week. I’ve included just a few. The opportunity to be challenged and engaged while exploring the mad, bad and sometimes sad world of crypto is not to be underestimated, it is truly a learner’s paradise – just keep that open mind and delve on!


Pick of the Week

If you explore only one thing – let it be Nic Carter’ treatise on BTC as a vehicle of peaceful revolution.


Twitter

World currencies in a race to devalue means…:
https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1172221635958648838

How ‘to Bitcoin’:
https://twitter.com/melikmanukyan/status/1168969406501793792

Where to start your crypto journey (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1168808222527873025

Adding some context to Van Eck’s moves of offer a BTC product:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1168909634381471747

Look, see, understand:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaGEdwards/status/1168799874671923200

There’s a pattern here:
https://twitter.com/meshikharv/status/1168848992433606658

A contrarian perspective on trading but a considered one:
https://twitter.com/hodloncomrades/status/1172745092848701440

On passion (not that kind):
https://twitter.com/katherineykwu/status/1171972627113680896

A quick primer on global gold reserves:
https://twitter.com/theworldindex/status/1168725510651858946


Articles

Nic Carter explaining the Bitcoin revolution (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/a-most-peaceful-revolution-8b63b64c203e

A perspective on the long-term growth cycle of BTC:
https://medium.com/@hcburger1/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

An in-depth analysis of recent BTC price action and likely trade scenarios (highly recommended):
https://trybe.one/buying-btc-for-investors-current-market

High-value post on investing in the crypto space (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/cryptocurrency-investing-101-common-pitfalls-to-avoid-hopefreiheit-com-bc58829d3ef3

Token supply approaches examined (highly recommended)
https://medium.com/messaricrypto/crypto-monetary-policies-bef1779e1422

A collection of proposals/ideas on how to approach ‘fixing’ EOS governance (highly recommended):
https://www.eosgo.io/blog/ideas-that-might-fix-eos-governance/

Even some bankers decry current monetary policy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/deutsche-bank-warns-of-grave-side-effects-from-more-ecb-cuts


Podcast

Another informative discussion of BTC past, present, and future with a heavy hitter in the Bitcoin space (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/michael-goldstein-president-satoshi-nakamoto-institute/id1434060078?i=1000448789132


YouTube

Examining the question of individual BTC address safety:


Straightforward explanation of how Bitcoin functions with a simple primer on fiat:


What’s up with NEO – lots to dig into here in this interview with NEO’s head of global development (recommended – if only as an update):


EOS clearly has some governance issues (recommended):


This short-term call on gold is well worth considering (though has the ECB reset sentiment and boosted gold?):


Infographics

If only there was a pattern here…

https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1169155098716581889/photo/1


Interesting comparison of Bitcoin Cash v Lightning Network over the last year:

https://messari.io/c/research/messari-research-comparing-bitcoin-cash-and-bitcoin-s-lightning-network


Website / Utility

One of the first websites to bring together BTC resources. Very sparse landing page but a deep reservoir of material here spanning BTC’s entire operational life (highly recommended):

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/


This real-time representation of Bitcoin Cash v Bitcoin is supposed to show the transaction superiority of Bitcoin Cash but perhaps shows something else – you decide (BTC is the bottom lane).

https://txhighway.com/


A whale of a week in terms of learning opportunities. As always, looking forward to reading your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

EOS Price Showing Signs of Strength

EOS is testing resistance again as we speak. After making a run at the 3.90 area it took a little breather before making this next attempt.

What I like is that we only saw a very modest pullback on very light volume the past few days before today’s push.

There are no guarantees we see price breakthrough, but if it does then 4.20 and 4.60 are the next upside targets I am watching.

As for the downside, I’d like to see price hold 3.70 so that this higher low that was just put in remains valid.

Crypto Contest September 14: Vodi X

Vodi X (Bittrex: VDXUSDT) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Vodi X began a wave one advance on September 4. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on September 10, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Vodi X should be heading next towards the September 10 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Vodi is a mobile platform boasting 5+ million users in over 200 countries and is tokenizing its ecosystem by launching Vodi X. You can watch their latest update below.

(Sources: Vodi X and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Crypto Contest September 13: Contentos

Contentos (Binance: COSBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the daily chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Contentos began a wave one advance on August 5. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 8, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Contentos should be heading next towards the August 8 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Contentos is a decentralized global content ecosystem. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Contentos and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Please click the link below to listen to the 53rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.



External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-can-crypto-fail/id1441492450?i=1000449580399

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-ck86f-bf4bbf


Transcript

Two Minute Crypto – Can Crypto Fail?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s episode examines the idea of crypto being a failed experiment destined for the ‘ah well’ ideas bin of history. Well, It’s possible, right? Right? No, no not at all.

Of course, in absolute terms anything is possible but setting aside cataclysmic events that wind back the tech clock – crypto is here to stay.

While it’s true that history is indeed littered with good ideas that went nowhere – the ideas phase of crypto is long past. For over a decade now we have seen a blockchain store and transact value without the need for permission from any central authority. This is powerful juju. Bitcoin has survived many trials and tribulations from exchange hacks to hard forks. While elegant design, a fortuitous genesis, and communal efforts have all played their part – it is the proof of concept that has supported BTC through each and every struggle it has faced. By proof of concept, I mean, man for the first time I history now has the means to transfer value across time and space without the need of a permission-giving middleman. There is no harbour master, no caravaneer, no border official, no bank notary. If you will it and you possess Bitcoin – you may now move wealth as you wish. Sure, there’s a fee, a toll if you like and miners which process transactions but this is procedural -automatic – no documents or permission are required.

Now Bitcoin may well fail. Indeed, every iteration of blockchain currently in the market may fail but the genie is most certainly out of the bottle. Believing that crypto will disappear assumes that people will simply abandon permissionless, value transfer and meekly return to the bank and state-dominated fold. Given the fundamental shift in financial autonomy that crypto offers, it is exceedingly unlikely that the tech itself would be abandoned even if the first generations of this tech were all to fail. I mean it’s possible, but when you ponder it, is it likely?

Now what is likely is that crypto will fork into two distinct implementations – one decentralized and empowering, the other state-controlled and dystopian. As with any technological innovation, it is as open to abuse as holistic use. China is already well on its way to rolling out a state-issued cryptocurrency – one which will no doubt aim to further increase its control over its citizens. State crypto will allow the government to track, coerce and punish those who would oppose it. Imagine a future where you post a comment in a chatroom, only to find yourself locked out of your own accounts…and unable to spend your ‘own ‘money all at the push of a button or the whim of some automated surveillance software…that day is nigh.

Concurrently, we will see the further development of decentralized networks for the storing and transacting of value – empowering both the individual and the economies of which they are part. In the coming years, both iterations of crypto will flourish in some cases within the same jurisdictions. As to the victor – decades lie between us and that outcome.

Thanks for listening.

Bitcoin Moves: Quick Update

In my last update we discussed a likely bounce around $9,950 to confirm a falling wedge on smaller time frames. Today, we’re seeing that bounce. If you took the trade, congratulations!

Screen Shot 2019-09-12 at 10.18.09 AM.png

In this update we’ll discuss where price may be heading next, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Feature Image By: Saul Gravy

Bitcoin price Targets, Traps and More!

Bitcoin continues moving sideways, testing investor patience.

Screen Shot 2019-09-10 at 12.05.24 PM.png

In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may be heading next, key areas to watch, targets and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

If you found this post informative, please:

upvote.gif

Spread the word about Bitcoin and help change the world. Support this channel by getting your Bitcoin shirts, hats and apparel here: https://www.bitcoin-gear.com?aff=42

Get paid for viewing ads or block them all together with Brave Browser. Free download here:
https://brave.com/wor485

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/workin2005
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Workin2005
Feature Image By: Saul Gravy

MTL technical analysis

MTL seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe that the current structure has formed a bullish pennant and the major figure shows an inverted SHS, a reversal pattern of trend, in the chart above I have indicated the pennant through the diagonals in light blue, while the diagonals of trend and horizontal supports are in dark blue, previously the price made an upward journey recovering the support located at 0.000035 and consolidate above that level, it would be expected that the price continues its upward path, currently the candles are testing the diagonal of the bearish wedge within the pennant, if we fail to make the break in the current situation, we could expect a reversal to the diagonal greater, approximately within the price range of 348 – 358, to then have a pullback to break the resistance of the figure and reach our pennant target, which is at 485, I have also pointed out in the chart above the SHS target, which is higher located at 629.

MTL seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of the candles, we can observe how it has tested the resistance of the descending wedge, within the circles I have pointed out the important points that we should always take into account in a trend, the third circle has not yet been completed, so I mentioned earlier that we could see a reversal to the diagonal that would end the down cycle and look for the break.

In conclusion, MTL has a good enough chart to trade, the major figures are bullish, the price has recovered an important level, located above the previous LL, the neck line I have indicated in the chart with purple color, in the short term we could see fulfilled the objective of the pennant, found resistance in the neck line, so we should see another accumulation to go for the objective of the SHS achieving the breakage of the neck line first. I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 4H and the closing in 1D, also always be attentive to the movement of BTC, since any strong movement can affect the market of the alts.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

STEEM: we should have hit the bottom already…

yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.

For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:

During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI

Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:

…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:

The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….

… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:

We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:

The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…

If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…

…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Buying BTC for Investors – Current Market

The market remains lacklustre, but relatively predictable. I’ve had more success with recent BTC price predictions than what I normally have – which gives me added confidence in my current buying strategy. This post explains that strategy.

It’s no secret that I have had BTC buy orders in the $8000s for a good few weeks now, if not months. I constantly check the charts and update my TA in order to ensure that my buy orders remain valid. At the moment, I am happy that they are set at the right prices. I will now explain why:

Firstly, take note that I have done away with my regular diagonal Fib levels for the time being. As the bullish price action drew to a close, so those levels started to lose their relevance. The nature of the current market correction is such that diagonal Fib levels no longer a reliable means of price prediction. Obviously this will change at a later date, but for now I find no value in using them.

I predicted a BTC reversal of fortunes and a price drop over the weekend (on Twitter and in the TIMM Trading Pits). That price reversal/drop occurred late on Friday.

https://twitter.com/brain_bit/status/1169959815923273728

Calling the price turnaround was not hard, the TA was pretty clear. What is still unclear for now, is whether BTC is in a bearish converging triangle or a negative channel. Fortunately this doesn’t matter much – as the outcomes of the two are fairly similar – at least for investors.

Below we can clearly see how BTC respected the top of the channel/triangle and became negative – a trend which should now continue for the remainder of the working week, possibly longer.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

It could be that the top of my channel/triangle is not correct (because I have excluded short-term outlier candles), but thanks to the latest data, it looks as if making the top of such a channel/triangle less steep does not tie in with the observed price movement data. The upper limiting line which I have created ties in nicely with the bottom of the channel, i.e. it runs parallel to it, giving credence to my theory that what looks like a triangle may still be a channel.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Channel or not, we are seeing support at $9500 – giving credence to my theory that BTC may be in a triangle despite looking as if it is in a channel. Looking at the bigger picture, I see no reason why BTC can’t be in a triangle within a channel – which I now believe is actually the most likely state of affairs.

Upon reaching support at $9500, I believe there is a good chance that support will not hold (as indicated on the chart below). Perhaps I’m wrong and it will hold. Perhaps BTC will bounce back up to the top of the triangle, before turning negative again. Much like I said in my post a week ago, other indicators such as trading volume and various momentum indicators show that a positive breakout for BTC is very unlikely at this stage. What this means is: if BTC does not break downwards through the bottom of the triangle this time, then it will probably do so the next time it tests the $9500 support level.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Looking at the chart above in more detail, we can see a historical support level exists between roughly $8100 and $7500. Provided that BTC price does break lower, I expect this support level to arrest the drop in price. Should it fail to do so, then price should stop dropping when it reaches the bottom of the channel – roughly at $7000 (that price changes over time due to the downwards slope of the channel).

So where should an investor look for a buy point?

Bit Brain’s BTC Buying Tactics

There is a risk that BTC hits the bottom of the triangle, and then bounces back upwards, never to return so low again. Chances of this happening are slight, but not negligible. For this reason it may be a good idea to buy at the turnaround point of $9500. I am making $9500 an “Optional Buy Point’ for myself. 

If BTC price decline slows significantly as it approaches $9500, I will assume that it does not have the momentum to break through, and will set a buy order just North of $9500 to avoid missing out on the dip. This will not be a big order – perhaps about 20% of my allocated funds – because there is still a fair chance that price will drop lower later on.

However, if BTC approaches $9500 at speed, chances are that it will shatter the support there. In such a scenario I will not buy at $9500, instead I will wait to buy in the $8000s, as I have been for the last couple of months. Since there are no other meaningful support levels in the area, I will not buy in the low $9000s. If BTC does break downwards through $9500, it should hit the $8000s – which is where I will start buying (as indicated on the chart below).

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“Buy Zone 1” is my main buying zone, it lies between $9000 and $8100. I plan to spend 60% of my allocated BTC buying funds there – with the option of spending more if it looks like BTC won’t go any lower than $8000. I have buy orders at around $8900, $8500 and $8200 – these vary as my local currency fluctuates against the dollar, so I have to adjust them from time to time. At $8100 we once again encounter historical support – so that is where I stop buying.

Should BTC break through that support, I will be ready to pick it up at prices of between $7400 and $7000. This is “Buy Zone 2”. $7000 is the bottom of the channel (at least for now). If BTC fails to reach Buy Zone 2, then I will spend all of my BTC buying funds as the price moves back upwards through “Buy Zone 1”.

I do not see a scenario where BTC will drop below $7000. Firstly, because $7000 is the bottom of the channel, but secondly (and probably more importantly), because BTC can’t drop below $7000 without breaking through the Long-term Base Trendline. (as seen below).

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

The Long-Term Base Trendline is four years old and well established. It is highly unlikely that BTC can remain below the level of this trendline for very long. As a side note: I believe this trendline to be a measure of BTC adoption as well as the baseline from which any rally is launched. Interestingly, if I’m right about that, it means that reaching the trendline indicates that there is no hype in the market at that time.

If BTC does break though the long-term trendline, it will become incredibly unstable and likely to bounce back fast and hard. It also means that I will be willing to place even more money into it – money I will rob from my normal fiat money savings accounts. Obviously this is risky and not something I would recommend for most people. I’m telling you what I will do under such circumstances, not what you should do. 

This unlikely buying opportunity is labelled “Unlikely Buy Zone” on the chart below.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

That rounds up my latest weekly look at BTC. As for the rest of the market: altcoins remain in decline – providing excellent buying opportunities for shrewd investors who are willing to do their homework. In the bigger picture, I watched in amazement late last week at how money floods out of stores of value and back into the fiat-based markets on the slightest little whiff of optimism wrt US/China trade talks. They’re not even building a house of cards anymore, they’re building a house of rice paper. And it’s starting to rain…

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges: