technical analysis TT / BTC

TT seen from the 1D time frame we can observe how the candlestick structure is forming a double floor in the larger figure as a signal of trend reversal, this setup if completed correctly would take us to the high profit target located within the price range of 0.00000215 – 0.00000225 where the weekly offer is located, indicated within the chart by the purple horizontal, the smaller figure has formed a descending wedge where we should have a third touch on the diagonal resistance to later fall below the support located at 0.00000079 indicated inside the chart by the red horizontal, if this happens we could have a recovery pullback below this level, it is a movement we need to have to form the first HL as the first sign of a change in trend, at all times the price must remain above the diagonal support we see inside the chart by the larger diagonal also in black.

TT seen from the 1M timeline we can see how the current candlestick is forming an important doji over the diagonal, if we close in this way we would have an excellent candlestick pattern for a trend reversal, the candlestick is still young, therefore we must wait until the close to confirm.

In conclusion, TT is in an excellent buying moment, the higher temporality in the middle of the month is managing to hold on the diagonal despite the strong selling pressure that we can see through the long upper wick that has formed us, within the temporality of 1D the scenario is quite positive, once we get the break of the lower figure, the price should form a range that starts a game of EW that would push the price towards the range of 0.00000215 – 0.00000225, within the chart I have traced the possible trajectory of these movements, the distances and times may vary, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Round Pegs in Square Holes (Bitcoin)

This is not a quick read. I don’t apologise for that – it’s a really good post and it may teach you a lot about long-term BTC trends.

Introduction:

In a sea of crypto analysts, it’s important that you are able to differentiate the good from the bad from the ugly. The good and the ugly are fine (I’m both), but the bad are – by definition –
no good.

The New Year has heralded the dreaded return of price predictions, exacerbated in this case by the upcoming infamous Bitcoin halving. I tell you again, all the halving affects is short-to medium term price volatility, not long-term price! These two posts remain more relevant than ever:

· The Bitcoin Halving Event – Part 1

· The Bitcoin Halving Event – Part 2

I don’t bother myself with short-term Bitcoin price movements, I’m an investor, not a trader. What matters to me is not that Bitcoin has gone up (or down) today, but rather that it will have gone up a lot five years from now!

With this in mind, I focus more on long-term charting than on short-term charting. Long-term charting is more predictable, accurate – and to investors such as myself – useful.

If you are a trader, then by all means trade – but to me BTC is an investment asset. Traders help with liquidity and volume, so they do help the overall credibility of BTC a bit, but it is the investors who
BELIEVE in BTC and who are actively driving the adoption of crypto. Those who have the belief in BTC – enough belief to hold it as a long-term asset – they are the ones who are really driving the adoption of crypto and the
creation of a better world for us all. But enough about that, let’s get to the interesting stuff!

Round Pegs in Square Holes:

I often publish long-term BTC charts. On the majority of these charts you will find my “Long-term base trendline”, such as in this chart from the end of December post: “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020”.

But what is this line exactly? What does it mean? Is my line better than anyone else’s line?

Without the answers to these questions, my line is just another random line published by just another crypto analyst. It’s equal in status to any other similar line you may know of.

With the answers to these questions my line becomes a veritable tour de force – an answer to questions yet to be asked and a Sword of Damocles above the head of lesser analysts!

This line is thus very important to me, I stake not only my reputation on it, but also my own investment strategy.

Caveats: NEVER have I had a line on a chart which stays fixed indefinitely. It’s true that this particular line is about as fixed as they come, but it DOES move from time to time. So far the movements have always been very small – more “adjustments” than “movements” – call it “fine tuning”. Just note that the line is not 100% fixed and is consequently not 100% accurate. Also note that while it is valid 99% of the time, there ARE times that price can momentarily dip below it when BTC has serious negative momentum. Such dips never last, but they have occurred in the past, and will probably do so again in the future. That being said, I have great faith in this line and have spent so much time on it that I am absolutely satisfied with how accurately it is dialled in right now.

But not everybody would agree with my line – and they have strong reasons not to. This post shows you why, and then explains why I have chosen what I have chosen. As always – YOU must decide for yourself!

Round Pegs

While I choose to use a straight line, there are those who prefer curved lines. They are in the majority.

[Pause for quick rant]:

When has “Majority” ever equated to “Right”? Anyone with an understanding of politics, the media or propaganda can quickly point out the logical flaws in using populism as a basis or substitute for correctness!

[Rant over]

Don’t ignore that rant, it’s important. Now let’s look at curved lines:

There is considerable evidence to show that logarithmic curves can be made to fit the history of BTC price. You will often see charts such as this one:

On the face of it that’s a great looking chart. The indicator lines do what they should: they hit the tops of the peaks and the lows of the troughs. They are consistent curves which account for all prices during the time period, and they narrow together over time – accounting for reduced volatility as the market matures.

It all sounds so very credible – right?

It really does, so much so in fact, that I was quite impressed the first time I saw such curves used (about two years ago).

But taking something at face value is not a Bit Brain trait, especially if there are flaws in the logic or rationale behind it.

Look: the model is good. I am genuinely impressed by it and I think it does a pretty good job of accounting for BTC price at the moment. But I am concerned because I have found flaws with it and I don’t know how well it will hold up over time.

I DON’T KNOW the right answer here, because I can’t tell the future. I look at the data available to me – ALL the data – and then I try to make the best judgement calls I can based on that. These curved lines don’t account for all the data, which is where the problem come in. I KNOW that I’m not always right, but I have a higher chance of being right because I’m not looking for the simple answer. I’m not looking for that one curve that fits all the data. Similarly, I’m also not ignoring all the data that doesn’t fit, or making overly broad price brackets to try to account for all anomalies (here’s looking at you stock-to-flow!)

But Bit Brain, what’s wrong with these curved lines? What don’t they do?

I’m glad you asked…

They simply don’t fit all the observed data. Spot the problem on the chart below (which goes back to mid-2010 as opposed to the mid-2011 chart seen earlier):

It may not look like much, but it’s there at the beginning. The curve simply doesn’t fit all available data.

Can ANY curve fit the all data? As an experiment, I tried to construct my own curve to fit all the data, or at least the data with respect to the low end of the BTC prices over time (similar to the bottom curve on the chart seen above). Here is what I got:

That’s the best I could do.

THERE IS NO CURVED LINE THAT CAN ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE DATA IN THE HISTORY OF BTC

The line I drew is about as close as you can get to an all-data-encompassing-curved line for BTC base price over time. It’s no good because the BTC price is way below it near the beginning, but it’s still about the best you can do. This is how it looks next to the curved log lines that are commonly used:

“Houston, we’ve had a problem.”

Remember that there is another year and a half of (unavailable on my charts) data before this time (mid-2010) which only makes the problem far worse!

The commonly used logarithmic curves don’t fit. So what now? How bad is the problem? Is it really a problem? How will this play out in the future?

Once again I DON’T KNOW, but I DO KNOW some other things and I will use those to show you why I use what I do.

Summing up the Round Pegs:

It is my suspicion that the curved lines are working semi-well for a moment in time. The curves are not too far off reality, even though they can’t account for outlying information, so they look good. But I suspect that they will begin to degrade at increasing speed over time. Anomalies and/or a price trend shift away from the curves may well render them useless in times to come. I suspect that the curves will hold true for the next five years or so, but doubt that they will last for a decade. During this time (if I am right), they will become increasingly useless as prediction tools, because their lower and upper limits will begin to stray away from the lowest points of bear markets and the highest points of bull markets.

I believe that the curves fit a snapshot of time: for now that time is June 2011 to date. I suspect that they may have useful a shelf-life of approximately 15 years.

While we’re at it…

I mentioned stock-to-flow earlier. It’s not strictly related to these log curves, but Stock-to-flow is wrong in the same way that I say the curves above are wrong, but only more so – MUCH more! In addition to this, there are FUNDAMENTAL REASONS WHY STOCK-TO-FLOW IS WRONG! Those reasons are the same as other supply-sided arguments which I debunk in my “Bitcoin Halving” posts, as linked to at the beginning of this article. Go check them out.

Before I let Stock-to-flow off the hook and move on, let’s take a look at a chart or two:

Having trouble getting all the data to fit? Just make ridiculously broad price bands to encapsulate all the data! Ignore the fact that some data STILL doesn’t fit your model!

From https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-chart-shows-bearish-periods-precede-halvings

Or how about this, from PlanB themselves: Remember that EACH VERTICAL BLOCK represents a factor of 10x. So if an arrow is one block high, then PlanB’s predicted price is ten times too high or too low!

From https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1151077015149260802/photo/1; modified by Bit Brain

The largest of those arrows shows that the real price is about 14 times higher than the predicted one! I mean, come ON! Why would anyone use this? Remember my rant earlier about the difference between being popular and being right? Now you know why I say that…

Square Holes

Right, now here comes the tricky part: I’ve ripped the arguments of the majority apart, now I have to justify and explain my own standpoint. Here goes:

The key to my long-term trendline is this: I don’t try to fit all the data into one all-encompassing line.

I do not believe there is a way to fit all the data neatly into one indicator (short of using ridiculously wide price bands to account for all anomalies). I look at the markets and their history, I take the fundamentals into account, and then I try to project what is left in the form of usable indicators.

Below is another look at my long-term base trendline, this time seen in its entirety. Note where it begins: mid-2013.

I have often stated that I do not trust BTC data from the early years of BTC trading. I normally state that mid-2013 is the time that I start to find data sufficiently representative to provide useful statistical value.

The reasoning behind this is simple: Prior to 2013 Bitcoin simply wasn’t big enough, I’ve said this before but it bears repeating. There were not enough people invested in Bitcoin. They were not financial investors, they were not trying to to find fair price or make winning trades. They were tech geeks, cryptographic geeks, computer scientists and programmers who were playing with a new toy – taking a long shot that had little chance of going mainstream. The further you go back, the more true this becomes.

Any big buy had a radical effect on the price of BTC – which traded for less than $10 for most of that period and for less than $0.50 prior to 2011. You have to understand that even though logarithms do an excellent job of accounting for both small and large numbers in the same data-set, those numbers have to be consistent in order to provide good data without corrupting the model. Early BTC data is NOT consistent enough! It’s not something such as cell division which happens at a predictable rate and then to leads smooth, chartable exponential growth. Filling an equation with anomaly prone data taken from an overly-small data set is scientifically incorrect and will not yield a correct result! You have to have a sufficiently large sample size in order for the statistics to become valid. In the early days of BTC, the sample size was simply too small.

I’m really not comfortable with the way that logarithmic BTC price explanations try to incorporate all this old garbage data into their models. That’s why I ignore the early data entirely on my charts. From a fundamental perspective I haven’t ignored it, I’ve realised that it’s not proper data. I know why the data is bad and I know which data is bad. Thus my method incorporates all the given data, while remaining accurate by filtering out that which is not relevant – at least that’s the theory – a theory which is better than any mainstream ones I know of.

So that you don’t have to take me at face value, let me show you a chart or two which should help you make up your own mind on this topic:

The chart below expands on one of the charts we saw previously; the one with the “This is a problem!” section at the start of the log curve data. Here we can see that region in context, along with the regions which come after it (which I described earlier). The log curves are overlaid on the chart too.

My own model doesn’t use either of the first two regions.

Below I have removed the log lines and replaced them with an ascending channel, the base of which forms my long-term base trendline.

Starting to make sense now?

But wait, I’m not done yet…

I watch other major markets too. No market exists in isolation, they tend to influence one another. Some display similarities and correlations – we have such a case which effects BTC.

Early growth of BTC

BTC price shot up very rapidly in the early days – too rapidly to fit comfortably into accurate price models. Now: whether you believe me or not about the lack of BTC data in the early days making it impossible to accurately analyse and model that data, you will have to pay attention to the next point:

Bitcoin is often compared to Gold (whether a certain grouchy anti-BTC gold bug likes it or not). Both store value well, both are constantly climbing in value, albeit with some retracements and corrections when the fiat-based markets are booming. So here is an interesting little fact for you all: between the time of the Bitcoin Genesis Block and the start of 2013, Gold flew up in value. Gold went from approximately $830 at the time of the Bitcoin Genesis block, to over $1900 in August 2011, and then slowly dropped to around $1300 at the time I started trusting Bitcoin price data in mid 2013.

If market pressures were such that Gold got a huge boost, then such pressures may well have influenced Bitcoin too. Whether is was people looking for a store of value or just having money available with which to speculate is irrelevant; Gold went up very fast so it makes sense that Bitcoin should have done the same (much as Gold and Bitcoin have been doing since mid-December 2019).

The chart below illustrates this graphically:

It’s not just Gold – I used Gold because it’s easier for most people to see how it compares to BTC. You can look at the S&P, or the Dow or other large indices / commodities / etc. You’ll see the same thing.

Explanation / Summary

Here’s what I think happened: BTC was born after the market crash of 2008. It was born into the rapid recovery phase of that crash. Combined with its inherent early growth, this supercharged BTC in the early days – creating unrealistic and unsustainable growth rates for most of the first four years of its existence.

As can be seen from looking at Gold, the hype phase died away throughout the duration of 2012 and things went back to normal, which is why I only start to trust BTC after it settled down in 2013. It’s hard to say exactly when BTC data becomes trustworthy, there is no clearly defined line. I normally choose to use 1 July 2013 – the halfway mark. The reality is that it could have been a few months earlier, but not as early as 1 January 2013.

To put thing into perspective, BTC had a total market cap of roughly $150 mil on 1 January 2013. That grew to well over $1Bn in less than three months! At that stage BTC got noticed and became a serious investment asset. It then corrected downwards to below $1Bn by mid-year – which is when I start using the data – before starting to climb again. I attribute the climbing after June 2013 to organic BTC growth instead of to external market driving factors; which is why BTC then continued to climb – but at a different rate to what it had previously – while Gold continued to lose value and stagnate for the rest of the decade.

In basic terms: BTC only matured as an investment asset in early to mid-2013. Data before that time can be ignored – as long as you understand why it can be ignored!

Notes on Square Holes:

My straight line approach to the BTC base trend comes with a few caveats of its own. While my line is normally well labelled, it is commonly misunderstood. The Long-Term Base Trendline I show is NOT a price prediction! It is a BASE PRICE which BTC should remain ABOVE most of the time. Please bear that in mind if using my data or posts for information.

As I stated earlier, it can change over time. The changes will probably be hardly noticeable, but may occur. If BTC were to make a definitive drop below $7000 today and stay there, then my long-term trendline would have to either be significantly adjusted, or thrown away altogether. Here’s an interesting implication derived from that:

You won’t see Bitcoin selling for below $7000 again. Bit Brain has spoken.

(That excludes a whale tanking the price on individual exchanges, price display errors, Bitcoin being replaced by something better 10 years from now, etc)

I won’t go into the details because this post is long enough, but continued constant growth of BTC can also be largely attributed to the S-curve of technology adoption. I wrote about the S-curve in one of my earliest STEEM posts two years ago: check it out here “BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTIONS – Chart Display – Part 3 – The S curve (More good news!)”.

Footnotes and Conclusion

There is also a lot I can say about the nature of logarithms and using them in charting. I spent hours running common logs vs natural logs scenarios in preparing for this article – research which I am choosing not to include in the interests of keeping things on topic. But here are the sentient points:

  • The BTC price curve MIGHT be a natural log function, but this would only apply to more recent data (mid-2013 and beyond) and not before.
  • There is no log function that works for all BTC price data.
  • Log functions straighten out over time. Using a straight line might be an approximation of an log function, we will only know this after a few more years once either the logs or the straight lines start to diverge from the data observed.
  • This is what you get when you plot the natural logs of the base values of BTC on a chart .
    • You can see that it’s not a straight line (as a correct log function that explains all BTC price action would be), but that using straight lines over specific periods might work.
    • This ties in with what I said earlier about BTC normalising towards mid-2013.
    • The x-axis is the number of days since the genesis block.
  • My straight lines ARE actually log lines because they are only straight on Log (base 10) charts.
    • No I’m not elaborating on that now – this is a blog, not a mathematics class!
Made by Bit Brain using PlanMaker from the FreeOffice suite

If you’ve made it this far then well done – you may print this medal out and frame it as a reminder of your fortitude:

The truth is that right now there isn’t much difference between my straight line and the curved log lines, but over time this WILL change! In 2026 the commonly used base log line puts BTC crossing $500 000 while my trendline will puts BTC crossing $1 000 000 per coin. That’s a factor of two and is no longer negligible!

Continuing to put round pegs (log lines) into straight holes (straight trendlines) will work for a few more years, but if I am right about the holes being straight, then eventually those round pegs will no longer fit.

Yes I know I should have broken this post up. Once again I DIDN’T break up a long article because it loses it’s coherent logical flow and then you end up with two half stories instead on one whole one.

I hope that this article has achieved its purpose: to provide you with the UNDERSTANDING of why I use a straight trendline as my BTC base. I hope it shows you the difference between an analyst that develops and refines his own methods – questioning everything along the way, and those who use what is already available and merely try to fit lines and curves to what they see on the charts. I may not always be right, but I have a damn good understanding of the fundamentals what I do and how it works. When I am wrong, I make sure that I find out why and I take steps to correct that (and God knows I do make mistakes!)

So off you go now, the ball is in your court. Believe quantity or believe quality. No – you can’t take the middle ground – that’s just being wrong from both perspectives! I hoped you enjoyed reading this post as much as what I enjoyed writing it.

See you again soon.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




WTC / BTC Technical Analysis

WTC seen from the 1W seasonality we can observe how the candlestick structure has formed a long 2 year downward wedge, currently the price is at an excellent moment of the trend, ending the wave (5) of momentum, at any time we should have a strong momentum towards the diagonal resistance of the major figure coinciding with the weekly offer located at 0.0000861 indicated within the chart by the pink horizontal, this would be our first stop before a correction towards the weekly demand that would form the price with the upward closing of the weekly candlestick, if in the retracement we form a HL we would have a very good signal of continuation of the upward trend that would be confirmed by the breakout and confirmation of the major figure.

WTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the (EW) play for the long term, the key points of the run I have marked within the chart, the first is located at 0.0001232, the second point is located at 0.0003040, the key bid is located at 0.0004052 and I have marked it by the horizontal gold color in the MONTHLY (B).

WTC seen from the 4H time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price is looking for the point (5) of the current downward momentum, the ideal would be to find an entry below the S/R FLIP 4H located at 0.0000413, indicated within the chart by the blue horizontal, to see a reversal we need a reclaim of that support and move towards the resistance of the lower figure.

In conclusion, WTC is in a good moment to buy with a medium and long term view, this pair has an excellent profit margin if the current scenario that I have shown in the graph is fulfilled, the points are technically calculated, however, the times and distances can vary according to the acceleration of each movement, this must always be taken into account when reading a TA. In the minor temporality, WTC should fall a bit more below 0.0000413 to try to recover that level as support, so I recommend to be very attentive to the price action in 4H and 1D and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the movement

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 63

Yet another challenging week to recap – there was a literal avalanche of good/compelling material to choose from. Of course, this is a great problem to have. From elegant explanations of the value proposition of LINK to insightful reflections on the year just past and the decade to come. A wealth of fascinating content awaits the curious crypto enthusiast!


Pick of the Week

If you only have time for one thing – check out this podcast re the 21 lessons of Bitcoin – you won’t regret the investment.


Twitter

Running Bitcoin off the internet:
https://twitter.com/nwoodfine/status/1214238101796638721

A distilled version of Messari’s 2020 theses report (recommended):
https://twitter.com/elainegija/status/1214059271530467328

Two areas of BTC planning worth thinking on (recommended):
https://twitter.com/BTCSchellingPt/status/1215373435469062144

A bullish perspective on BTC for 2020:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/Noakp7n5-Why-I-believe-Bitcoin-will-retest-All-Time-Highs-by-July-1-2020/

An ETH equivalent of Silk road has yet to emerge:
https://twitter.com/teo_leibowitz/status/1215072430588342272

Time to move from research to market?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1215365982694170624

An advocate for LINK explains why it already has a significant market advantage (recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheShipIsMoving/status/1214623803961225217

Sometimes it’s better to keep your opinions to yourself (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1215428990724386816

It’s good to be rich (who knew?):
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1213137465327751169

The US economy is fine, no really:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1215428090656018432


Articles

BTC by the numbers 11 years on (highly recommended):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/happy-birthday-bitcoin-heres-a-look-at-bitcoins-11th-year-by-the-numbers

From skeptic to Bitcoiner a common path (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@ssaurel/from-skeptical-to-bitcoiner-the-7-steps-journey-followed-by-more-and-more-people-d199b8d2d5da

Crypto policy trends and predictions for 2020 (recommended):
https://messari.io/article/crypto-policy-trends-and-predictions-for-2020

The decade ahead (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-will-happen-to-cryptocurrency-in-the-2020s-d93746744a8f

The decade just past (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-happened-in-crypto-over-the-last-decade-ee6a2552d630

Crypto banking is on its way (recommended):
https://blog.deribit.com/insights/the-great-race-to-crypto-banking/

Thinking big about EOS (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/dappiness-solutions/eosio-think-bigger-c10dfadedc63

China’s smallest province has become a blockchain hub:
https://technode.com/2020/01/02/blockchain-hub-takes-root-in-chinas-smallest-province/

An exploration of the Coinbase approach to crypto:
https://nakamoto.com/coinbases-pragmatic-crypto-culture/

An admirably in-depth report of 2019 for XRP:
https://www.xrparcade.com/news/xrp-2019-yearly-report/

Deciphering DeFi (recommended):
https://nakamoto.com/beginners-guide-to-defi/


Podcast

Bitcoin focused – lots to learn here (highly recommended):

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/140/

YouTube

A light-hearted but nonetheless insightful look back on 2019 (highly recommended):


Despite a questionable track record – some useful insights into 2020 (recommended):


Meaningful progress on EOS congestion with changes to REX:


An excellent overview of Filecoin (not a project to invest in but useful to be aware of imo):


Will the equity party end with a bang or a whimper?


Infographic

Now that’s a healthy-looking network:

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1212003395978092545/photo/1


Website / Utility

A new and growing resource for though-provoking articles on crypto (controversially not just BTC focused):

https://nakamoto.com/


Yet again, a whole lot to take-in from just one week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Technical Analysis BTC / USD

BTC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candlestick has tested the important supply zone located at 8215 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal color, coinciding with the diagonal resistance of the major figure, this was an expected movement to complete the WXY correction pattern, the price should now go in search of the weekly demand located within the range of 6200 – 6314 to form the point (Y).

BTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price has formed a high at 8158, this supply level has not been taken, therefore, we could still have some confirmation wick in that price before the price gives us a signal to continue falling, we have an important support located at 7629 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal, if for the moment the price does not take the supply today, we could see a rebound in that support looking for the supply level at 8158.

In conclusion, BTC has formed an important high under the resistance of this parallel channel, the 8215 has been tested correctly leaving us with a maximum at 8500, for now we should wait for the price to continue falling or form a LH under the diagonal resistance to have confirmation, while the price does not claim the level located at 8215 we can not expect the price to continue rising, Based on the WXY pattern, we should have a new entry in the range of 6200 – 6314 where the price would form a double floor as a reversal signal in key support and confirmation point (Y), therefore, I recommend following the 1D price action very closely and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies 2020

Yes I am still alive. (Sorry to disappoint you politicians, mass media journalists, bankers and other scum – you don’t get off the hook that easily!)

My recent silence has not been voluntary, unfortunately I am once again looking after an injured wife. Sadly this takes up the majority of my time, but now that she is slowly on the mend, I will try to get
back to my neglected blogging.

Let’s take a holistic view of the markets, looking at Bitcoin in particular but also at a few related events/issues/etc.

The year started with a bang – a literal bang if your name is (was) General Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let us pause for a moment on this single issue, because the ramifications of that attack are potentially far-reaching. I’m not going to go into whether the attack was justified or not, what Iran did to deserve it etc – go down that path and you get lost in the nitty gritty – that I will leave up to you to decide for yourselves. Since this post is more about BTC than about how the world works, I’ll skip the detailed political/military/economic analysis and will merely mention the high level interesting effects that I think this attack has brought to light.

Bit Brainian thoughts to ponder over:

  • Media coverage was immediate and widespread – to a disproportionate degree if viewed against similar events.
    • This is exactly like the disproportionate amount of coverage received by Greta Thunberg. If you want to know more about how and why this happens, then don’t miss this spectacluar eye-opener: “When Children Cry”.
  • Wars make a very useful national distraction for presidents who are struggling with domestic opposition – Clinton launched a similar attack prior to his impeachment trial.
    • If you want to unite a divided population, then few things work better than a war. People forget their differences when they combine against an external “threat” – whether than threat is real or just a perceived threat created by the government propaganda machine (like the “threat” posed by Jews to Germany in the WWII era).
  • This was an inflationary move (in terms of tension and military aggression) that will destabilise the world. There is no telling how far this destabilising effect will go – a chain reaction is hard to control. With the global economy already on shaky ground, the tipping point of grand-scale economic systems-failure could come sooner (weeks or months) rather than later (within a year or two).
  • Bitcoin price shot up due to instability and uncertainty – or FUD if you prefer. Such a rise is a panic reaction and is based on very little fundamental reasoning.
    • The goldfish-like memories of investors may soon fade, sending the price of BTC back down by maybe $500 to $1000.
    • Ironically the more intelligent long-term investors will have been buying up BTC for years because of long-term instability and uncertainty of the fiat-based markets.
  • It’s interesting to note how BTC was clearly used as a store-of-value as soon as an international crisis loomed.
    • BTC’s transformation into “Digital Gold” in the eyes investors has spread beyond the realm of early adopters and is entering the mainstream collective psyche.
      • …which just makes Peter Schiff’s incoherent panic-ranting look ever more pathetic!

Bitcoin

My last post of 2020 “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” showed how everything was running exactly according to plan and prediction. Well, it was running exactly according to MY plans and predictions – if you follow lesser analysts and their incorrect tales of weak TA fiction, then that’s your own problem.

The post mentioned above was published on 16 December and I haven’t actually needed to update you since then, because that post has been right on the money ever since. Let’s recap a little and see what’s happening now.

The day after I wrote that post I posted this Tweet:

16 hours after Tweeting that, the price of BTC hit a seven month low and turned (generally) positive. The prediction was based on a triple-line convergence point, the details of which may be found in “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” and which remain valid.

It must be mentioned that THE BITCOIN PRICE TURNAROUND HAS YET TO BE CONFIRMED!

Until BTC has conclusively broken through the top of the descending channel, the scenario that BTC may continue to trend downwards remains. I BELIEVE that the price movement of BTC (and of crypto in general) has now turned around, but at this stage I am still willing to concede that I may be mistaken – though the evidence suggests that I am not.

To break out of the channel, BTC will have to break through the red zone depicted on the chart below.

Note in the chart above that BTC price is currently well above my projected price line (yellow), so (as I said earlier) don’t panic if the FUD-based buying comes to an abrupt halt and the price drops into the mid $7000s.

On the other hand, this buying spree and obvious faith placed in BTC as a store-of-value may well trigger another bull run and send crypto prices to new ATHs. At this stage we can’t tell what will happen yet, so just keep calm and take it day by day, remembering that crypto investing is a long-term game.

The performance of altcoins in 2020 suggests that crypto sentiment has indeed swung positive. Those who didn’t pick up alts in December (or earlier) may have missed the best opportunity to do so, though seen in the greater scheme of things altcoins are still ridiculously cheap and are well worth buying! Just remember that many altcoins are utter rubbish (even some big name alts, hey XRP? Hey BSV?), so choose carefully. Sure, the price of the bad coins will probably Moon when the other alts do, but so did the price of BitConnect once upon a time…

With the apparent change in sentiment, I have begun constructing new positive Fib levels (as opposed to the negative ones I was using in the descending channel – as seen above). These are still in the test phase and will require considerable tuning before they start to yield information worthy of “prediction value”. For what it’s worth, my positive Fib levels look like this for now:

I will probably keep the positive Fib levels away from my primary BTC chart for the time being, until such a time as I have confirmed that the descending channel is no longer governing BTC’s price movement. Adding too much data to a chart just becomes confusing and is undesirable, the fewer lines there are on a chart, the more I can see.

Conclusion:

As described in my older posts, I expect BTC to now hover just above my Long-term Base Trendline for the foreseeable future – probably most of 2020. At some stage (or possibly stages) BTC will rise sharply up from that line and we will have another bull market – probably an unbelievably strong record-breaking one. Maybe it won’t be one big one, but rather a series of smaller bull runs, much like the mini-run we saw in mid-2019.

Whatever the outcome, I remain more bullish on BTC than ever before. I’m a long-term investor, when I buy something I’m looking at least five years into the future, more likely a decade or longer. I got into crypto because I saw the long-term potential of decentralised blockchain technology, a potential which will surely be realised.

I think that 2020 will be the year that the masses warm up to the idea of BTC, this will be the year that Bitcoin moves from “geek money” to “legitimate alternative investment”.

Remember that crypto is only a part of a balanced portfolio. I believe that crypto is very important, but I also believe in not putting all one’s eggs in one basket. You can, for example, be a fan of both Bitcoin AND Gold, or even Bitcoin and Stocks – don’t let short-sighted fools like Schiff of Buffett polarise your views.

I wish you all a merry 2020, and I look forward to interacting with all of you wonderful blockchain-friendly visionaries over the course of the year.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 62

The first recap of the year and what a week it’s been. Not in terms of price developments but rather quality articles and crypto discussions/narratives. This recap contains only a small fraction of the great material to emerge this week as we launch into cryptos second decade.

Who really knows if 2020 will be a good year for crypto investors? It’s simply impossible to say with certainty. However, what does seem reasonable to assert is that this will be cryptos decade. The 2020s will see crypto projects move from development to mainstream application. Many, indeed most, will fail but the precious few that make the transition from promising tech to utilized product/service will be a very big deal indeed.

Oh, and Happy 11th Birthday Bitcoin.


Picks of the Week

Nic Carter on BTC is a great way to kick off your crypto-themed researched in 2020. This article exploring some of the messianic aspects of BTC is also a fascinating read. To round-off check out this piece by Bloomberg discussing China’s rollout of a state-sponsored crypto.


Twitter

Some folks just want to pay attention:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1211072538459029504

So how did the top cryptos perform (in terms of price) in 2019?:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1210776029221900288

Looking at the BTC chart on a price and time log scale – very interesting patterns emerge (highly recommended)
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1212546960596463616

An excellent roundup of Chainlink’s purpose and structure (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/DLTPandu/status/1211286825576411136

It’s early days for DEXs (recommended):
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1212802056467169280

A dive into crypto governance:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1212167506070130688

China has big plans for crypto (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1212434441114734593

Great use humour to deflate the crypto women haters out there:
https://twitter.com/La__Cuen/status/1209151285540184064

Useful guidelines before you put pen to paper (highly recommended if content creator):
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1211284340983754753

As an investor strive for this:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1207692433947078656


Articles

Read this piece on BTC to get your crypto year off to the right start (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-times/the-cat-is-out-of-the-bag-fc1344c46bc1

Most financial advisers are a long way from ‘up to date’ on Bitcoin (recommended):
https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/financial-advisors-hate-bitcoin-their-reasons-will-drive-you-crazy-1df9fe417624

An interesting thought experiment viewing BTC as a start-up (recommended):
https://medium.com/@hassmccook/bitcoin-as-a-startup-769c387c97ca

BTC through the lens of religious revelation (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@dustindreifuerst/the-citadel-the-emergence-of-bitcoin-utopianism-eb44ddf76290

So what exactly is Defi? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/coinmonks/what-is-defi-2cee0dceeeab?

A light-hearted look at EOS in 2019 – highly entertaining/informative (recommended):
https://www.eoswriter.io/166040_eos-popcorn-episode-7.eos

Gaming and crypto will be a thing:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/gaming-is-key-to-the-mass-adoption-of-crypto

End-to-End Decentralized Applications Democratize Data and Drive the Open-Source Movement Forward:
https://medium.com/the-liquidapps-blog/unhackable-ungameable-immortal-dapps-are-a-class-of-their-own-1de14d54ba7c

China is about to go full crypto – it’s going to change a lot more than you may think (highly recommended):
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-29/china-has-edge-over-silicon-valley-to-end-banking-as-we-know-it

CZ on Binance in 2019 (recommended):
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/419417682154909696/Binance-2020-New-Year-Message-Building-Foundations–

Ever heard of a ‘factor’? It might be a thing:
https://medium.com/trading-politics/this-will-cause-the-next-financial-crisis-e102264fe511


Podcasts

Meltem Demirors reflects on the first decade of BTC (recommended but skip to the 4-minute mark):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/meltem-demirors-on-first-decade-existence-bitcoin-ep/id1347049808?i=1000460284544


A review the Lightning Network in 2019:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7n0Pp1eVsOfJ2h5wbhnAGD

YouTube

The Crypto Lark looks to the decade ahead (food for thought but by no means investment-grade content):


DataDash explains why he is optimistic for the year ahead:


Investing with a Difference surveys the state of the EOS ecosystem and looks ahead to 2020:


Liquidity and trading:

https://www.binance.vision/economics/liquidity-explained


Infographics

This crypto thing is not catching on:

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/51526/at-least-18-central-banks-are-developing-sovereign-digital-currencies

That’s a lot of traders on the wrong side of a trade (cough – leverage trading is not a good idea):

https://twitter.com/cryptounfolded/status/1211309525078355968/photo/1


Website / Utility

A growing collection of thought-provoking articles on BTC:

https://www.unchained-capital.com/blog/author/plewis/


Another crypto week behind us. An incredibly exciting year ahead. See you once again down this ever-deepening rabbit hole next week.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 61

Just to add some Christmas spice YouTube went and took down a who’s who of Crypto. After much ado, most of the channels are back up and running again. The silver lining – yet another reminder that centralized services may refuse such services as and when they choose. In addition, commonplace shady practices such as promoting leverage trading and pushing sponsored but undeclared reviews of ICOs/IEOs on ‘information’ channels may be reduced, at least in the short-term.

Though many high-profile projects are up significantly for the year, 2019 didn’t broadly deliver in terms of price. Nonetheless, a lot has been accomplished – the infrastructure of crypto has never been more robust. Doubtless, many more projects will go to the wall in the coming year. A scattershot approach to crypto investing in 2020 is unlikely to pay dividends. Whether next year leads to significant price gains remains unknown but as with most things, patience is likely to be rewarded at some point. The question isn’t really if but when – may as well use the time productively!


Picks of the Week

Hard to look past these two reports – one reflecting on 2019, the other focused on the year to come.


Twitter

Let’s start with some predictions (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1206568081016803328

An optimistic take on the coming year:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1206750565834706944

A decade of inflation compared to BTC (recommended):
https://twitter.com/crypto_rand/status/1208073313161011201

VC funded projects don’t necessarily make for good initial investments:
https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1206239305397624833

The BTC halvening is not priced in:
https://twitter.com/Knightfall21/status/1209984695229964288

A thread arguing that consistently highlighting ETH flaws is not equal to an attack on the project (recommended):
https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1208687186306064384

Top crypto projects could do with improving their transparency and engagement with investors:
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1207143847588962305

Perhaps having a figurehead for your crypto project is a mixed blessing:
https://twitter.com/MarkBeylin/status/1207445732095143948

Is a crypto credit bubble really a concern at this point? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1210159551858671616

ETH2 inevitably a hardfork?
https://twitter.com/thibauld/status/1208398273507143682

Proposed EOS REX changes should be an improvement:
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1208478884695617537

Liquidity is key – not a lot of it going around:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1209093579509059584

Analysing HitBTC’s wallets – is it insolvent? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/Raindropactual/status/1208241130342629376

2019 asset returns:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208386891176792065

Markets at all-time highs:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208417033316130817


Articles

Excellent round-up of crypto 2019 (highly recommended:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vc-DGG0iqEBQqNlsr5x6vxGxWUAEdgV3/view

Looking ahead to 2020 another excellent report (highly recommended);
https://messari.io/report/crypto-theses-for-2020

500 Bitcoin related bylines:
https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com/

Bitcoin as a hedge against your government (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-hedge-against-your-government

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/

The next BTC rally will be a thing of beauty – here are three reasons why (recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/three-reasons-the-next-bitcoin-rally-will-be-monumental-e2d8b407c569

Reflections on a year of playing with BTC (recommended):
https://www.coindesk.com/hanukkah-reflections-on-my-year-of-toying-with-bitcoin

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/


Podcast

No love for Alts here but many sound arguments re Alt valuations nonetheless (highly recommended):

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mP4FLxYyPlidAamyBVDQX

YouTube

A brief update on the recent Crypto cull:


Anton Antonopoulos looks beyond single chain dominance (highly recommended):


A brief discussion of crypto folks to be aware of:

https://cheddar.com/media/top-people-to-watch-in-crypto-for


A wide-ranging interview with BTC evangelist Anthony Pompliano:


Colin unpacks recent SEC guidance on the definition of an ‘Accredited Investor.’


Infographic

IEOs largely failed to deliver value for investors in 2019:

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1206808582026477568/photo/1


Signing off for 2019. It’s going to be a profoundly interesting decade! As always, looking forward to hearing from you.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

The Sunday Crypto Recap -Down the Rabbit Hole 60

With the year coming to a close there’s lots to reflect on. Did price – rocket as hoped -no it did not. Is that a problem for the health of the cryptosphere as a whole – no – not at all. 2020 may also flatter to deceive but in the long-run, there’s much to look forward to.


Picks of the Week

Once again it’s hard to select just a few items to highlight. Perhaps if you only check out one thing it should this top 100 figures in crypto. If you can stretch to two then this thread on Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ feature is well worth your time.


Twitter

BTC as an NFL team – who knew?:
https://twitter.com/AlexIlten/status/1205693922342834178

Dan Hedl refutes ‘Satoshi’s Vision’:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488

BTC lows have a trend of some sort (2019 figure yet to be decided):
https://twitter.com/themooncarl/status/1203971458487275520

Blockchain as disruptor across a wide range of sectors:
https://twitter.com/MarshallHayner/status/1204507375757152263

In defense of The Block (recommended):
https://twitter.com/hongkim__/status/1204617082005905411

On Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/udiWertheimer/status/1206684805175398400

From one extreme to the other (recommended;
https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/1205104637310914565

On central bank and state approaches to digital currencies (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1205438393145942016

On value and belief:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1206321498127917056

What is ‘useful’ in life is rarely simple:
https://twitter.com/shl/status/1204799385646665728


Articles

A who’s who of crypto (highly recommended):
https://cryptoweekly.co/100/

Why it’s early days for crypto (recommended):
https://markhelfman.com/2019/12/13/why-nobody-else-cares-about-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrency/

It’s prediction time:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/biserdimitrov/2019/12/11/what-are-the-top-10-blockchain-predictions-for-2020/#73e59554d395

Gas flaring and BTC:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/why-bitcoin-mining-is-being-touted-as-a-solution-to-gas-flaring

Binance didn’t become a dominant player through luck (recommended):
https://decrypt.co/11327/the-inside-story-of-binance-explosive-rise-to-power

Comparing Visa and lightning:
https://medium.com/galoymoney/visa-and-lightning-how-do-they-compare-1f4d89bdbbaf

Is KYC/AML really so bad?:
https://medium.com/exmo-official/everybody-is-freaking-out-about-the-5amld-is-mandatory-verification-as-scary-as-it-seems-6ccd2f92bb7d

So that was 2019 (recommended):
https://brukhman.substack.com/p/this-was-a-year-of-steady-infrastructural


Podcast

Larry Cermak of the Block on crypto (highly recommended but skip frequent Ads):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/larry-cermak-block-on-what-90-bitcoin-trading-is-for/id1347049808?i=1000459488613


YouTube

A brief review of BTC price action for 2019 (in terms of Elliott wave theory):


2020 looking good for BTC? (highly recommended despite light-hearted style):


Chainlink overview (recommended for research but strong pro Chainlink bias here):


Browser ‘incognito mode’ isn’t as secret as you may think:


A bullish take on gold by a long-time market participant:

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/the-kaplan-doctrine-conservation-preservation-and-value?


Infographics

Early December snapshot of key BTC mine related metrics (link also leads to an article on the subject):

https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-analysis-miners-squeezed-by-dropping-prices


Visualising BTC layers:

https://twitter.com/HillebrandMax/status/1205517645753257984/photo/1


Website / Utility

Excellent resource for tracking BTC mining/network metrics:

https://bravenewcoin.com/data-and-charts/assets/BTC/price


That’s a wrap for yet another fascinating week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

ENJ technical analysis

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price has managed to close above the accumulation range, the previous candle has tested very well the high range of this area with strong buying pressure, we should have a continuation of the movement in the short and medium term, as soon as the price manages to close above the weekly bid located at 0.00001424 indicated within the chart by the horizontal black, the price can go up strongly, our profit targets are located within the chart by the horizontal upper black color.

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has made us a range on the diagonal support that we see indicated within the chart by the diagonal red color, we could have a new test of the area of supply located at 0.00001424 before a setback to the area of demand in 1D located at 0.00001165 indicated inside the graph by means of the horizontal purple color, if this scenario happens, we would have an ascending triangle in the minor figure as a sign of continuation bullish, inside the graph of above I have also indicated by means of the green arrows the series of HL that has formed us the structure of candles during the accumulation and ascent outside this range.

In conclusion, ENJ maintains an excellent bullish movement through a series of three HL during the movement out of the accumulation range, currently the price could be forming an ascending triangle as a sign of continuation, to follow the rise, the price must keep the daily demand zone located at 0.00001165, if this happens we could have a break in the weekly supply zone located at 0.00001424 and with this a strong bullish movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00001942, our second profit target is located at 0.00002402, our third profit target is located at 0.00002953, and the highest target is at 0.00004631, therefore, I recommend following the price action in 1D very closely and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia