Bitcoin – possible next moves

 

Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy

Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.

As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.

 

Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:

 

Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.

 

My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.

Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.

 

Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:

 

And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:

 

…and similar patterns from earlier times too.

 

The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.

Summary:

I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.

I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.

I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.

Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:

  1. BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
  2. My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
 
 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





Crypto Contest July 23: Revain

Revain (HitBTC: RBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Revain began a wave one advance on June 26. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 2, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 21. If this wave count is correct, Revain should be heading next towards the July 2 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Revain is a review platform built with blockchain technology. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: Revain and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

STEEM: a clear Double Bottom Pattern…

….and it would indicate something good for the price if STEEM wouldn’t have so much selling pressure from the wales and from @steemit in particular.

A double Bottom pattern is a Bullish Pattern that usually describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action. It is normally accompanied for a divergence in some of the technical indicators and this is what we see at RSI indicator on the daily chart:

RSI Indicator:


MACD Indicator:

… as I said, if it was any other ALTCOIN I would not have any doubt to claim BULLISH Action on it but we are talking about STEEM which is being really controlled from those that state that STEEM is a decentralized blockchain….

Will see what happens next…in the meantime, I would try to accumulate as much as possible.


@toofasteddie

Can Bulls Prevent a Knockout? Analyzing Bitcoin, LTC, ETH & Answering Your Questions

Bulls are still defending $10,000, but bears are attempting to land a knockout punch. Price dropped from $10,500 to $10,150 in less than 20 mins. Just another day in the crypto market.

Screen Shot 2019-07-22 at 11.07.18 AM.png

In today’s video I’ll analyze Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum. We’ll discuss the 4 hour death cross, where prices may be heading next, traps to avoid and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/22/19

When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin.  Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin. 

When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.

Source Image

Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.

Binance

EOS

Ethereum

Litecoin

Neo

Steem

Tron

Zcash

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

It’s TOO QUIET in here…

 

I have been blogging since early 2018, not what I would consider to be “long” in blogging terms, but long enough to have become a part of the furniture. During that time I have seen big changes in the crypto blogging space: some rapid, some more sedate.

One of the sedate ones has now become too obvious to ignore: it’s too quiet in here…

How often do you make new followers on blogging platforms these days? It still happens, but it’s not nearly as frequent as it was a year ago, is it? How many comments do you get on each blog post?

Despite the best efforts of many bloggers who frequently leave comments and engage wherever they can (thank you guys – I really appreciate the efforts you make – both on my posts and on the posts of other bloggers), the numbers are still way off what they once were. If I look at Steemit, the platform I started blogging (and still use to this day), I now so rarely get comments that I don’t even check my replies daily anymore! At one stage I would check replies several times a day.

There is also a notable drop in post earnings: my own account has been hard hit – though granted – some of that has to do with the price of the tokens one earns. Even so: token price is a reflection of interest in the token, and interest in STEEM is disturbingly low! I had hoped to be able to earn a living from blogging, though if this carries on I can see that I shall have to make other plans. Even some of the top Steemit bloggers are earning pathetically little compared to what they once did, a clear sign that interaction is shrinking dramatically.

It’s not just Steemit that has been hit, Trybe is visibly empty too. Here, take a look at the bottom of “page 1” of my Trybe friends list. I like to use this list to see who has been online lately. I normally select each member who has been online since I last visited, check their blog and then comment on their new posts. But so many of them have just not been online lately…

From https://old.trybe.one/members/bitbrain/friends/

 

 

It’s hard to engage with friends who are not there! Imagine what pages 2 and 3 look like! I miss the regular posts of some very good bloggers who used to post frequently. Some of my Steemit friends haven’t been seen in nearly a year! 😥

Don’t get me wrong: I’m not blaming anybody for anything here: neither the platforms nor the bloggers. I fully understand that it takes time to generate and curate good content. (I hate the system-gaming heajin-style copy-&-paste posts which have little to no effort put into them) Time IS money, and not all of us can afford to spend several hours a day on crypto social media platforms – especially when payouts are poor. It isn’t all about the money, but it does become “not economically viable” at some point.

I sense a form of despondency among my fellow crypto bloggers, and that is to be expected. The altcoin market remains nightmarish in many respects, that is having a clear effect in the platforms based on those coins. I think that STEEM and the STEEM-based platforms are suffering from that particularly hard: Dan Larimer’s middle-child is playing the role of classic neglected middle-child to a T.

Personally I have already sold off quite a lot of my STEEM, and have suggested that others may want to follow suit. I know that many other STEEM holders have already sold off a significant portion of their holdings.

However…

I won’t be selling of all of my STEEM, and when I do sell it, it’s to buy other altcoins – not to cash out to fiat!

I am well aware that altcoins are not popular right now. I have seen the BTC value of my altcoin portfolio plunge during the last few months. Bitcoin maximalists are everywhere, I don’t recall ever seeing anti-altcoin sentiment this high before (probably because the majority of altcoins have not been around for long enough).

I am NOT a supporter of the saying “The trend is your friend”. Instead I consider the trend to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, somebody who leads you along the path, and then once you become complacent, stabs you in the back with a sharp trend reversal. As a Value Investor and a Contrarian, my default instinct is to oppose the trend. But what does that mean in real terms?

There is blood on the streets. The altcoins are bleeding.

We ALL know: “Buy Low, Sell High”. Yet when the price of something is low, what do we do? We panic sell. When price surges high, what do we do? We FOMO buy.

Hear the wisdom of Bit Brain: NOW is the time to BUY altcoins!

I believe that this is a golden opportunity. Bitcoin can’t keep climbing alone – it makes no economic sense! I saw a Tweet this morning which said that the Bitcoin Whitepaper is the only one worth reading. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are MANY good altcoins out there with a solid token economics model. They will make money, irrespective of what BTC does. I agree that BTC is the only real store-of-value crypto, but it is not the only crypto that has value! I still expect good altcoins to thrash BTC in terms of ROI over the next year or two.

Mark my words, sentiment towards altcoins WILL swing around again, and when it does, make sure that you are holding some good ones!

And this is why I’m keeping some STEEM. This is why I am slowly letting my TRYBE tokens grow in number. It’s just like mining BTC: too often miners shut down when it becomes “unprofitable” to mine. But what if they just kept on mining – took the short-term loss – and then sold that BTC when the market recovered? They would make a fortune in profits, especially because mining difficulty drops when miners pull out.

If TRYBE ever “Moons” by 100x and becomes worth $0.10 per token, then you can’t expect to still earn 1000 TRYBE for each post that you write! BUT YOU CAN EARN THAT TODAY!

So I suggest holding onto that which you can accumulate now, because markets ARE cyclic – often unpredictable, but cyclic nonetheless. I suggest that you keep on blogging, keep on curating, keep on supporting one another. We ALL know that crypto is still in it’s early days and that a lot of money will still enter this asset class. When it does so, it would be good if we could have our platforms ready to receive the influx of new interest, interest which would greatly boost the value of our tokens again.

So take heart, don’t feel down just because your altcoins are worth nothing. Don’t give up just because your earnings are very low. I am literally betting the future of my financial success on crypto – and honestly – I’m not too worried about it. For me it’s more a “when?” than an “if”. (No: don’t follow my example, I didn’t really have a choice due to a rather unique set of circumstances. Don’t put more into crypto than what you can afford to lose!)

Hang in there crypto friends, the altcoins will make a comeback. You’ll see. 😉

“It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





Crypto Contest July 22: Dusk Network

Dusk Network (Bittrex: DUSKBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Dusk began a wave one advance on July 14. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on July 17, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 19. If this wave count is correct, Dusk should be heading next towards the July 17 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Dusk streamlines the issuance of digital securities and automates trading compliance with the world’s first programmable and confidential securities. Crypto Beadles interviewed the co-founder earlier this month.

(Sources: Dusk Network and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

After Modest Price Bounce What’s Next for Ethereum.

Past few days saw crypto bounce after the hard sell-off.   Ethereum really didn’t bounce as much as BTC and LTC and finds itself at an inflection point.

Resistance Levels and Moving Averages

Looking at the daily chart you can see price rallied and met the 10 period moving average to work off some of the extremely oversold status it was in.

This level also happens to be a prior support, right around 230.   As we know once a support level is broken then it tends to act as resistance.

Thus, for price to go higher we need to see a push through this level and above the moving average.  Generally this happens when there is a volume buying breakout.

I don’t know if the crypto market has this in the plans after the relief rally.

Bitcoin is looking a bit healthy and as if it could leg up again, while litecoin does have a nice V-bottom pattern going on, but also is just bouncing from the breakdown of a head and shoulders pattern.

It will be interesting to see how those coins play out as well because as we know.  If those aren’t pushing higher its’ not likely ETH will either.

Bitcoin: The Battle Rages On

Yesterday we discussed the potential for a bull trap. I told you if the breakout was a bull trap, it’d likely reject at $11,050. That’s exactly what happened. As of now, price is again trading within the prior area of consolidation around $10,400.

Screen Shot 2019-07-21 at 2.50.29 PM.png

Bears executed a simple death cross (50 MA below 200 MA) on the 4 hour chart a few days ago. Since then, bulls have been fighting to prevent a follow through exponential death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA) on the 4 hour chart.

Screen Shot 2019-07-21 at 2.51.27 PM.png

In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may go from here, key areas to watch, your questions and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 38

This week’s recap reflects the intense regulatory and government scrutiny lavished on crypto in recent days. US lawmakers exhibited a wide-range of stances from recognition of BTC as ‘an unstoppable force ‘ to repeated calls to hit it with the ban hammer. This is just the beginning of a multi-year (decade?) debate on blockchain and cryptos. There are going to be many missteps and anyone hoping for a smooth transition to a post-legacy finance era is surely going be bitterly disappointed. Strap-in, be realistic and prepare for volatility – destination unknown.


Picks of the Week

Why BTC? – this article makes a convincing case. Ray Dalio has made a wildly successful career out of being ahead of the economic curve – his article on a pending paradigm shift in the global economy is fascinating.


Twitter

A reality check on the ‘myth’ (in most cases) of early adopters of BTC:
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1149575395529781252

Volatility argued as a positive for BTC:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1150766969253031936

Centralizing chain-tokens to achieve speed/lower costs comes with other consequences:
https://twitter.com/matt_odell/status/959146749091749888

Now you can track EOS 1.8 upgrade progress:
https://twitter.com/EOSauthority/status/1150734034605084672

Thoughts on EOS, community, BPs, voting incentives etc:
https://twitter.com/tokenstate/status/1151555321438957568

Secretary Mnuchin talked crypto but was anything new really said?:
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1150837275917508608

Nic Carter’s take on ‘Bitcoin is based on ‘thin air’:
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1150955296283602945

Is the establishment beginning to catch on to the existential threat BTC poses?:
https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/938139480531255296

Trading support and resistance levels:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1024791983309680640

A rebuttal of quantum computers as a pending issue for crypto:
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1150621392674664448


Articles

Why BTC – an accessible discussion of money – security/privacy and freedom (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@wiz/why-bitcoin-359ada12629e

Trying to please everyone has its costs:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/libra-is-so-screwed-should-have-used-bitcoin-says-samson-mow

Libra hearing partial transcript:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/key-comments-from-libra-hearing-at-us-house-of-representatives

Blockchain has a lot to offer charitable organizations:
https://hackernoon.com/blockchain-projects-are-helping-to-bring-trust-back-to-charity-xc9ze38ty

Trouble ahead for the global economy? – Ray Dalio certainly thinks so (highly recommended):
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/

Beware those who pander to your prejudices (non-crypto):
https://old.trybe.one/archives/demagoguery-masterclass/#comment-93453


Podcast

Discussing Bitcoin’s energy profile (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/michel-rauchs-on-bitcoin-electricity-consumption-index/id1317356120?i=1000444601823


YouTube

Bitcoin as a New Wealth Paradigm – inspired by Ray Dalio’s endorsement of gold (timestamp 3:08):


Crypto is weird this being yet another case in point (recommended):


Digital Identity – a concise explanation:


Infographic

Recent months have been very kind to BTC buyers (a pullback might be viewed in that context): expectation:

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1148566552448524293

Website / Utility

A very handy tool for assessing the staking rewards offered by different cryptos:

https://stakingrewards.com/asset/neo


A high stakes week with many more to come. The establishment is just beginning to sniff the existential danger crypto poses to the status quo – let the games begin!


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.


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