Tag: Stocks

WD-40 which stands for “water displacing” was first used by the military in the ’50s to clean up Atlas missile parts. Throughout the years, people have found over 2000 uses for WD-40. Growing up in the projects of NYC, I have seen my fair share of roaches, but I just found out I in addition to using Raid Roach spray, I could of used WD-40 for instant kills as well.

Three months ago, I wrote a post about WD-40,

Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too???

We all know it, have seen it, probably even take it for granted. I’m talking about WD-40. It has infinite uses and is the real utility knife. Just to get you acquainted again with WD-40, here are just 10 of the the 2000 uses of WD-40.

Despite the bump up in price this week, the levels in play and to monitor are the $150 level on the downside and the $188 level on the upside.

I like to think I’m creative with my titles, so the title three months ago was a play on words. Everyone should have WD-40 in the cabinet. However, WD-40 wasn’t a buy three months ago simply put, because the upper limit was $190, the reward wasn’t worth the risk. But thinking about this further, I guess it’s all relative and depends on what type of investor / trader you are. Anyway lets get back to WD-40.

WD-40 is a straight cash money making machine.  The company has grown their dividends on a year basis that’s equivalent to 9% over the last 10 years.  WD-40 has been growing its earnings per share at 13% each year over the past 5 years.  It’s no wonder institutional investors hold almost 90% of the stock. 

WD-40 reported earnings this past week. Although they beat earnings expectations, their outlook was below expectations and on the news the stock price fell the next trading day, but came storming back closing $7 up on the day. However, the fact that price breached a major resistance/support line, I think the risk is to the downside now.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its latest projections for the world economy show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a July forecast.  The main culprit was the US-China trade war which is expected to cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the Great Recession. 

Although, the US and China reached a phase I trade deal last week, the IMF stated if deal isn’t reached in the near future, the slowdown in the world economy could worsen, case in point….China.

China’s growth outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2020 is expected to weaken further because of obstacles including drag from the ongoing trade war with the United States, analysts said.

The next mile marker in China’s economic slowdown will come on Friday, when the country reports third quarter growth. Analysts expect it to slow to 6.1 per cent from the 6.2 per cent rate seen in the second quarter, which was the lowest growth rate since the government started publishing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics in the first quarter of 1992.

But analysts are rapidly revising down their expectations for 2020 below the lower end of this year’s growth range. Most forecasts put next year’s growth between 5.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent, with the International Monetary Fund’s just-released projection at 5.8 per cent.

Source

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands for Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and is an index used to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets.   The MSCI ETF that tracks this index is heavily exposed to China.  So where is price of the MSCI ETF headed, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly demand is at $120.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up, but momentum appears to be stalling.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests once the support breaks, to look for shorts to the down side with a first target at the weekly demand at $172.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

This past weekend I came
across an article on Motley Fool titled,

Better Buy: ExxonMobil vs. Dow

I immediately thought
about the which one is the lesser of two evils…very similar when Hillary was
running against Trump a couple of years ago. 

Nevertheless, I wanted to
get a tidbit from the article before I give you my opinion.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is an old hand with a diversified business model. While the name Dow (NYSE:DOW) is old, it’s really a new company today, with a focus on the chemical space. Here’s a few things you need to think about to decide which one of these iconic names is a better fit for your portfolio.

Exxon is working through a difficult period for oil prices and spending heavily to improve its business. It has a rock-solid balance sheet and looks relatively cheap from a historical basis (the yield is higher than it has been in decades). It is hardly risk-free, but it has a long history of success behind it. Even conservative investors would be OK jumping aboard here.

Dow has a great name and solid businesses, but is really a new company today with a very limited history. Its balance sheet isn’t as strong as Exxon’s, but it also isn’t likely to face the same top- and bottom-line swings. That also suggests its target payout ratio is reasonable. However, with little track record, most investors would probably be better off giving the company at least a year or so to get its house in order before jumping on this high-yield stock.

Source

Sector SPDR ETFs have become one of the most popular ways to invest in specific sectors of the stock market. Sector SPDRs track 11 different sectors in the S&P 500.  It’s important to note that 39% of a stock’s move is due to the sector that it belongs to.  The remaining balance is 41% of a stock’s move is due to the index and only 20% of a stock’s move is due to the company itself.

Since May I started tracking the SPDR sectors based on a moving average and a rating system I developed.  It’s been fairly accurate in identifying the strongest and weakest sectors. Please note Exon belongs to the XLE sector and Dow belongs to the XLB sector.

Here are the results from
last week.

Here are the results from
wk of 5/13/19

As you can see, both companies have been in the worse sector five months ago and today. And when I look at the monthly chart for both companies, the chart suggests ExxonMobil will fall to the monthly demand at $68,

while the chart for DOW suggests price will fall to weekly demand at $42.

If I was Motley Fool, I would of probably titled the article, “Better Buy In the Future: ExxonMobil Or Dow” because neither one of them is worth buying at this point.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Three weeks ago, I write a post titled,

Is Roku’s Reign Over???

Roku remains one of the fastest growing leaders in video streaming technology. Roku has over 30 million active users, about 10% of U.S. TV viewers aged 18 to 34 are now on Roku and these users are consuming more than 9 billion hours on streaming content.

But wait, why is Roku down almost 40% since early Sept?

Apple announced it would be giving away a free year of its new Apple TV+ service to customers who purchase new Apple devices, Comcast Corp. said it will give out its Xfinity Flex streaming box for free to its Internet-only subscribers and Facebook Inc. launched its new Portal TV device.

Price is approaching the monthly demand at $95. The chart suggests to go long once price penetrates the monthly demand.

Ken Griffin is the founder and CEO of Citadel.  If you know anything about Wall Street, then you have heard of hedge fund, Citadel.  The hedge fund manages close to $30 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.  

The guy is doing well for himself.  This past January, Ken bought a New York City apartment for $238 million.  But he felt he didn’t have enough space, so he also simultaneously purchased London mansion for $122 million.  Anyway back to the post as I got sidetracked by his wealth.  

A 13G filing or Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the 13D which must be filed by anyone who acquires ownership in a public company of more than 5% of the outstanding stock.  And according to a new 13G filing from hedge fund manager Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors shows a new 5% stake in Roku Inc.

Macquarie upgraded Roku from Neutral to Outperform on Wednesday.  And on Friday RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Roku to an Outperform from Sector Perform, boosting his price target by $48 to $155.

I can’t say it enough, so I’m going to repeat what I said in a recent post.

Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. And simple put, they do the opposite of retail investors. For the most part, retail investors buy high and sell low, it’s usually the Smart Money on the other side of the trade who are selling high and buying low.

Taskmaster4450 talked about this yesterday in his post titled, Why There Is No Need For FOMO On Steem

The investing world is full of FOMO (fear of missing out) at times. It is what often drives markets, often to the point of insanity.

Investing is a zero-sum game, so it also drives retail investor to the poor house.

Why do you think Ken took a recent stake in Roku and Roku was upgraded by Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets?  It’s because there isn’t an ounce of FOMO in their blood and because Roku now selling at a discount.  Although I thought the weekly demand would have been a better buy, price reacted to the monthly demand at $95. Thus, the chart suggests price will rise to the daily supply at $148.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Trump loves twitting he’s
responsible for the rally’s in the equity markets, but blames Fed Powell when the
equity markets tank.  And while the equity
markets are up almost 50% since his election, due to the trade war and economic
uncertainty, the equity markets have gone nowhere in almost two years.

Although the equity markets
are near all-time highs, in the past almost 24 months, we witness almost a 20%
correction, several 10% declines, two declines of 6% in 2019 and just this week,
as an example, a 1200 point decline, followed by a 500+ rally in the DOW

 The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX aka the stock market fear gauge, is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility implied.

Devesh Shah, an applied
mathematician and hedge fund manager who formerly worked for Goldman Sachs, was
one of the creators of the CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX is quoted in
percentage points and is the expected annualized change in the S&P 500
index over the following 30 days, with a 68% probability. VIX values greater
than 30 represent investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 represent
complacent in the Markets.

The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) is the largest and most liquid in the volatility ETF/ETN universe. The ETN sees average volume of more than 15 million shares per day, typically, but spikes to more than 70 million when the S&P 500 sees a significant decline and traders pile into VXX pushing it higher.

Yesterday I noticed unusual options activity in VXX. The Smart Money bought over 22,000 of the VXX November 15 call options with a strike price of $37.

I honestly think this is a hedge, against an existing equity portfolio, but I’m just speculating. The one thing I’m not speculating on is the Smart Money thinks the equity markets are going to potential drop pretty hard over the next 45 days. In addition, October has been the historically the most volatile month in the equity markets.

Source

However, in order for this trade to be profitable, the price must breach the weekly supply at $36 first. Will the Smart Money be right, stay tuned.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Three days ago, I introduced a new game called, US Stock Market Charades. In this game, there are no non-verbal (no talking) motion clues, just charts and I put a bunch of charts in order to give you clues so you could guess what direction the US Stock Market Equities were heading next.

Lets Play US Stock Market Charades

Lets Play US Stock Market Charades – Part 2

Lets Play US Stock Market Charades – Part 3

Alright, are you ready for some additional clues?

Clue 1

The ISM index is a good leading indicator of the economy and is useful in gauging turning points in the business cycle because the difference between new orders and inventories equates to future production or lack of future production.

The ISM is released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, but based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers throughout the United States in 20 industries in the manufacturing area.

On Monday the numbers for September were released and came in at 47.8%, the lowest since June of 2009.  50% is the line in the sand, so any above 50% means expansion and anything below 50% means contraction.

Source

Clue 2

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is an index created by the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing, using information collected from surveys from over 400 non-manufacturing companies.  Essentially, it’s an index measuring the service sector.  The numbers for September were released on Weds.

Service-oriented companies that employ the vast majority of Americans registered the weakest growth in September in three years, adding to a cacaphony of reports showing a broad slowdown in the U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management’s said its non-manufacturing index fell to 52.6% last month from 56.4% in August. Economists polled by Marketwatch had forecast a 55.3% reading.

Numbers over 50% indicates businesses are growing, but the index has fallen 8 points below its post 2008 recession peak of 60.8% achieved last fall.

Source

OK, you have 60 seconds to earn one point, where is the US Equity Markets headed???

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forever 21 is an American fashion retailer that sells accessories, beauty products, home goods and clothing for women, men and children, but the retailer is better known for the “wears” for teens, tweens and young adults. 

Forever 21 was founded in 1984 and during the 2000s, went hard opening up bigger and bigger store in the mall.  When it was all said and done, Forever 21 now has about 550 out of 800 stores located in malls.    But you know what with only 16% of their total sales coming from the web and mall traffic continuing to dwindle, this week Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection, and announced that it was ceasing operations in 40 countries and closing most of its international and 178 of its US stores last week.

Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is a global leader in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Their properties span across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales. 

Because Simon Property Group’s CEO David Simon fears such events like Forever 21 filing for bankruptcy, they have decided to dabble online as well. They partnering with other companies, essentially its tenants, and will take a cut of sales with the tenants responsible for fulfilling orders.

Now honesty, Simon Property should of done something like this years ago…maybe they might have had a chance.  But when Forever 21 is your seventh largest tent in terms of rent, it puts Simon Property in a bad spot. 

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $146.2 billion, an increase of 4.2 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2019. Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2019 were estimated at $1,361.8 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent (±0.2%) from the first quarter of 2019. The second quarter 2019 e-commerce estimate increased 13.3 percent (±1.6%) from the second quarter of 2018 while total retail sales increased 3.2 percent (±0.5%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2019 accounted for 10.7 percent of total sales.

Source

The tide turned for Simon Property Group when price broke the long term up trendline from 2009 accompanied by negative divergence.

One of my favorite set-ups is to then wait for the pull back, in this case the short at the monthly supply at $185.

And price gave potential sellers another opportunity to short at the monthly supply at $166. Nothing changes for me, the target remains the monthly demand at $115. Based on the secular shift to online retail, I’m confident price will get there within the next 1-2 yrs.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Just like Netflix disrupted the at home movie streaming market, Stitch Fix is disrupting apparel retail by allow you to choose your own clothes from a selection of clothing. Stitch Fix is your own stylist on a budget. They send you five items at a time based on an interface through which you select your style preferences, budget, and fit. Customers only pay for what they want to keep and return the rest for a service fee of $20 which goes towards the purchase.

Similar to Netflix who uses technology to get to know their customers, Stitch Fix has put their spin on technology as well with an interactive, mobile and web-based game with clients that we call Style Shuffle.

Stitch Fix was launched in 2011. The company has seen significant growth since, with 2.7 million customers and more than $1 billion in revenue. The person running Stitch Fix is founder Katrina Lake and is the youngest woman ever to take a company public.

Source Image

Stitch Fix’s debut on the stock exchange last November, with an opening price of $16.90. The stock more than double before settling back to the high $20s.  But since its existence the stock price has been more volatile than Elon Musk’s twits.

And Tuesday should be no different when they announce their fourth quarter earnings after the market close. According to The Motley Fool, the 3 things that investors should pay attention to are the following:

The biggest change Stitch Fix made in the fourth quarter was its May launch in the U.K., the company’s first foray into a foreign country.  On the third-quarter earnings call, shortly after the U.K. launch, CEO Katrina Lake sounded optimistic about the launch, saying “it seems like there is a lot of excitement from the [British] market” for Stitch Fix’s service. Look for commentary and updates on the U.K. business, as Stitch Fix’s results there will likely inform the brand’s ability to penetrate other international markets.

Despite the fact that Stitch Fix surged following its last two earnings reports, the stock is actually trading near all-time lows today. The most closely watched metric from the company has been revenue growth, the best indicator of the company’s ability to truly change how people shop for clothes.  Pay attention to the mix of revenue growth between new and existing clients in the upcoming report.

The most influential number in the earnings report, however, will likely be the company’s revenue guidance for fiscal 2020.  This time a year ago, management forecast adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $40 million for 2019, and the company is now targeting the high end of that range for the full year. With the investments to kick off the U.K. market now in the past, we could see a jump in adjusted EBITDA for 2020.

Source

But the Smart Money is not having any of that.  On Monday they bought over 5,000 put options with a $14 strike price that expire on Friday. 

With price at $19, that represents a potential 26% decline in price, but if they are right, the trade would be worth up to 500% – 700% return.  And it would mean breach the weekly demand at $19 as well.

Will the Smart Money be right, we shall find out Tuesday?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

I wrote about UnitedHealth Group earlier this year.  UnitedHealth Group is one of the largest health-insurance providers services roughly 50 million people with revenue of $226.2 billion last year. It also operates physician practices, sells consulting and data services, and administers drug benefits.

One of the major themes going into the 2020 presidential, at least by the Democrats will be the “Medicare for All” proposals. For example, earlier this year, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is calling for government-run health care as a way of covering more people.  He’s even singled out UnitedHealth saying their greed would soon end.

But the chart suggested to go long UnitedHealth at the weekly demand at $210.

Price did eventually react to the weekly demand at $210, hit the target at weekly supply zone at $270.  But because the $270 was a level that contained a stack of unfilled sell orders, that level the chart also suggested to short price gain with the target being at the weekly demand at $210 again.

In mid-Sept, the “Medicare for All” theme went front and center when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi unveiled her bill that would allow the federal government to negotiate the prices of up to 250 brand-name drugs in Medicare that do not have competitors and the negotiated prices would be available to all purchasers, not just Medicare beneficiaries.  In addition, the bill would also cap seniors’ out-of-pocket prescription drug costs at $2,000 a year.  And all though Nancy is trying to impeach Trump, Trump actually supports Nancy’s bill.  So if Trump gets impeached which he won’t and if the Democrats win next year’s election, which they won’t, UnitedHealth current business model isn’t set up for a more regulated environment.  And that’s why the stock fell 3% today and that’s why price is testing the weekly demand at $210 again.

But this time could be a different story. The SPDR Healthcare Sector ETF, XLV still lags behind the S&P 500 ETF, SPY.

and relative to all the other SPY sectors, XLV is dead list.

Thus, the chart is suggesting the weekly demand at $210 won’t hold again, will be breached the zone in the near future and that price will move down to the weekly demand at $183.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.