Halliburton Is Setting Up For A Short

Halliburton issued their second-quarter earnings report today.  The beat the expectations on earnings, but was short expectations on sales.

“International revenue increased 6% sequentially, confirming our expectation of high single-digit international growth for all of 2019. Momentum is building internationally and activity improvement should continue into 2020,” said eff Miller, Chairman, President and CEO. “Both of our divisions made meaningful contributions to growing North America revenue and margins in the second quarter. We are successfully executing our strategy of controlling what we can control and managing our business to perform well in any market conditions.”

Source

That was enough for the stock to receive a couple of upgrades.  Citigroup’s Scott Gruber reiterated a Buy rating and $33 price target and Stephens analyst Tommy Moll reiterated an Overweight rating and $45 price target on the stock, highlighting Halliburton’s ability to deliver “higher margins in North America despite macro headwinds.”

But here’s the problem, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is lagging the S&P 500,

and Halliburton is lagging the XLE

Although oil has risen since January lows, it’s still below $60.  Thus, there isn’t a lot of incentive for the producers to produce because they are marginally making a profit, so don’t have a lot of need for the service companies such as Halliburton.

Thus, despite the upgrades, the chart suggest to short Halliburton at the weekly supply at $25.25

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Are You Still Buying The Equity Bull Market???

The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite keep making new all-time highs.  So do you still believe in this Bull
Market???  If you do, well…you should because
we still are making higher highs vs. lower lows. But I want to give you some
food for thought to be careful.

Consumer discretionary to technology, cyclical stocks that typically associated with bull markets while in down turns or bear markets, consumer staples typically outperform.  However, both consumer discretionary and consumer staples sector are at all time highs…TOGETHER…HOW CAN THIS BE???

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (ETF), XLY

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (ETF) , XLP

With the US equity markets, consumer staples and consumer discretionary all all-time highs, something has to give because based on intermarket correlations, this doesn’t make any sense. This is when one has to dig a bit deeper.

 The consumer discretionary sector has consistently lagged the consumer staples sector ever since last year.

Source

For the bull market to continue to run, the discretionary sector must eventually outrun the staples or at some point we will see the equity markets start making lower highs, then lower lows.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 7/22/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

World Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/21/19

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.

Source Image

Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated.  However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes.  However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.

DAX (Germany)

Dow Jones (US)

FTSE 100 (England)

Nasdaq (US)

Nifty 50 (India)

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Shanghai (China)

Russell 2000 (US)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/22/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market.  Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)       

Consumer Staples (XLP)   

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)                           

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                      

Real Estate (XLRE)          

Technology (XLK)                  

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Investing-Engaging-Compounding / SBI Sponsoring [W9]

Another stagnant-price week = Another Good Chance for building your account on the Steem blockchain = More chances to reinforce your Engagement

I don’t expect a brilliant recovery of the STEEM price in the coming short term future, however we cannot deny that this price level is perfect for reinforcing your SP. I don’t think we will see STEEM prices lower than the bottom reached lately unless BITCOIN and the whole market collapse again, of course…

STEEM price has crashed dramatically during the past weeks and months due mainly in my opinion to the permanent selling pressure of our friends of STEEMIT INC, however it is possible that STEEM has found a solid place around the 80th position out of the top 100 altcoins at the cryptomarket.

The chart below shows the weekly amount of Steem withdrawn to the exchanges (data extracted from @penguinpablo ‘s weekly report), as you can see, this week more than 1.8 Million Steem has been sent to the exchanges, 300,000 Steem more than the previous week:



But the position of STEEM at the Total Market Cap during the past 2 weeks have not changed so much despite we have lost capitalisation:



This is because even if the amount of the Liquid steem increases continuously, there are other altcoins that are suffering a selling pressure higher than STEEM even if they don’t have such increase of tokens coming to the market every week.

So I think this is very positive for STEEM.

Sellers prefer to sell other altcoins than Steem because there is a REAL VALUE in this crypto, better than any other useless altcoin. And you know why?

  • We have USE CASE
  • We have the best Community
  • We have the best developers
  • We have the best DApps out there

As I said, there will not be better time to build your SP than nowadays.

SBI Sponsoring

My SBI shares for this week are going to @kokoliso and @serlanvet . I am very happy for having met them here despite both are at Steem since quite some time already. Lately I have interaacted with them a lot and I think we have engaged very well, remember that “engagement” is one of the three magic words fro anyone to success at this blockchain, the other two are INVESTING and COMPOUNDING.

@kokoliso is an excellent photographer and traveller. Lately he has shared his experiences at Australia but now he is back at home (guess is San SEbastian in the Basque Country)

IMG_1555_s.jpg

@serlanvet is a guy from north of Aragon, an historical region in the north of Spain. He is also an excellent photographer and naturalist who shares original pics and nice bucolic scenarios from the countryside near him.

6ncldtc298.jpg

Both of them get 2 shares of the @steembasicincome initiative, hope it will help them to reach minnowhood soon , despite I know it is not so much but helps at least…

All in all, they represent really good candidates for the #tenKminnows @steevc initiative,


And that’s all for this week folks!

Steem on.

@toofasteddie

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/21/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In Micron Technology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is the world’s largest foundry, meaning they manufacture semiconductors.  This past Thursday they beat analyst estimates for sales for the quarter, but more importantly signaled a rebound from the current chip down cycle.

Memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) reported better-than-expected earning, increased its DRAM (dynamic random access memory) industry demand growth outlook for 2019 and say it expects demand to recover in the second half.

I’m no genius, but clearly these are clues that the semiconductor sector might be bottoming.  And what’s funny about making money investing in stocks, you don’t have to be a genius, just need to be able to connect the dots.  And if you can’t connect the dots, just follow what the Smart Money does because they have information at their disposable that you and I can only dream about.

On Friday, I noticed unusual options activity in Micron Technology. What’s interesting is these options are short dated, meaning they are going to expire soon.  What’s more interesting is these options only become profitable if and when Micron’s stock increase $10 or 22% over the next four weeks, meaning the Smart Money bought a little over 14,000 of the August 30th call options with a strike price at $55.

If the Smart Money is right, these call options have the potential to increase 5X. Will the Smart Money be right, stay tuned.

NOTE: funny how the strike price lines up with the monthly supply at $55.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

July 30-31…Decision Day

Generally, a Federal Reserve rate cut is very well-received by the stock market, especially if it’s done during a growing economy.

In fact, there have been six such rate cuts since 1971, and the stock market has rallied after every single one. On average, the stock market has risen 9.7% in the three-month period following a non-recession rate cut. If a similar outcome were to happen now, it would indeed send stocks to new highs.

Source

Image result for fed powell

In December, Powell said the Fed’s program to reduce the bond holdings on its balance sheet was on “autopilot.” Powell later went on and raised short-term rates another one-quarter percent. The Markets didn’t like what Powell said and showed him by tanking.

In early January, during a round table with Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, Powell said, there is no preset path for raising rates or adjusting the balance sheet. The Markets like what he had to say, eventually climbing 10%.

Then in late January, Powell said the case for raising rates has weakened somewhat. In addition, Powell made it very clear to the Markets and used the word “patient” eight times in his speech regarding hiking interest rates.

The FOMC meets on July 30 and 3 where they will announce, no rate cuts, 25 basis point rate cut or 50 basis point rate cut. If Powell cut rates by 50 basis point, we will see new all time highs within weeks. Anything other then that and we may see a sell off.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex $1 MM Challenge – Trade #18 (7-19-19) Sold GBP/CAD

Brexit is an abbreviation for “British exit,” referring to the U.K.’s decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process of Britain staying or not staying in the EU has caused a lot of uncertainty, which in turn has caused the British Pound to continue to drop in price.

Canada reported retail sales for May and reported an unexpected decline in sales as consumers cut back on purchases of groceries, alcohol and clothing. Sales fell 0.1% vs 0.3% increase. This past week, GBP/CAD has pulled back, but on this news, GBP/CAD spiked higher.

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 1.90000 and monthly demand is at 1.58000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the daily supply at 1.64000.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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