Future EV Leaders are in “Emerging” Markets

China’s electric vehicle charging posts
exceed 1 mln (XinhuaNet)

  • The
    number of charging points in China has risen to 1m (up 69% YoY).
  • At
    the end of 2018 there were 760k charging points in China, up from 440k at end
    of 2017.

Analysis and Comments

  • Charging infrastructure is a lot more important than battery cost and subsidies in sustaining EV growth. The Chinese authorities are shifting their priorities from subsidizing EVs to financing the roll out of charging infrastructure.
  • The availability of high power/speed charging infrastructure will make short range EVs (~150miles) viable as your first car rather than your second one.
  • This is necessary, as battery costs are likely to bottom out at above $100/kWh which would make mass market EVs with long range commercially unaviable in the absence of subsidies.

Indian Cities Now Plan To Buy Thousands Of
Electric Buses (CleanTechnica)

  • Indian cities are planning to buy thousands of electric buses over the next few years.
  • In India, the government is spending $1.3bn on its electric bus programme and the funds will be used to subsidise 60% of the cost of the bus.

Analysis and Comments

  • Chinese bus OEMs such as BYD are the best placed to benefit from this opportunity, because they have a clear cost advantage versus bus OEMs in Europe and the US.
  • For the cobalt market (and hence Umicore), the bus market will also be important due to the shift in battery technology in buses from LFP to NMC which will boost cobalt demand.  

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