Long time since I posted my last post about BITCOIN , I think last time was on August 24th and I talked about the evolution of a complex WXY Double Combo correction.
Answering to a request of @beiker, I am going to show you what I think can be the possible scenario currently on-going.
The Y leg was in doubt that time, we were either thinking a possible triangular shape or a Flat configuration in order to end the wave II of BITCOIN.
However, it seems that the most likely, in my opinion, is a finalization of the correction by a FLAT configuration for the “Y” leg:
In my opinion, currently we have 2 possible termination areas probabilistically speaking:
The area around the 100% of the FIBO length of the wave “W”, corresponding to 7400 USD
The area around 5500 USD which is around the 127% of the FIBO length of wave W
Of course, the volume is so small that I would no enter in any LONG position till a clear increase of this variable will become a fact.
@toofasteddie
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
We saw some major buying off the lows today ladies and gents. A lot of names were holding tight and have now put in some hammers. Does this resolve higher and is this a buying opportunity? Time will tell. All I am saying is do not be bearish because the media is bearish. Yes growth is slowing but can we rip to all time highs? Definitely.
We are one tweet away from all time highs and tech ripping higher. It’s hard to be MEGA bearish above a rising 200 day MA which you can clearly see, that is where we are right now.
I doubt that many of you have studied “Strategy” as an academic subject. It’s hardly something used in the everyday life of most people.
But in military circles and in the upper echelons of civilian National Strategy, it does play an important role.
Before I relate strategies to cryptocurrencies, we need to level the playing field. When I say the word “strategy”, we need to all have a common understanding of what that means.
What is a “Strategy”?
Warfare is conducted at various levels. The three main levels are tactical, operational and strategic.
Tactical happens on the battlefield. Tactical decisions are made by unit commanders and their teams. The choice to use grenades instead of suppressive machine gun fire is a tactical one. The option of detaching a squad to flank an enemy that your platoon is fighting is a tactical one.
Operational decisions are made by those in charge of several fighting units. The operational commander would make decisions such as deploying the platoon to the battlefield in the first place. He would be given an objective and a variety of forces. How he (or she) employs those forces is an operational level consideration.
Strategic decisions are made by those who earn too much money and are too far away from the real action. Okay, that’s just me being facetious (but it’s still true). A strategy is an overarching plan encompassing all available forces. A strategy tells you how you are going to meet a specific goal, and what that goal is e.g. “repel Hussein’s invading forces from Kuwait”. At the national level you can also get “Grand Strategies” – which are basically very long-term goal that your shorter-term strategies align with. Don’t worry too much about Grand Strategies.
Ends, Ways and Means
In very simple terms, a strategy is comprised of three main things: Ends, Ways and Means.
If we are to apply a strategy to crypto, then we need to understand the relationship between these concepts.
Ends are the goals of strategies. As the name suggests, they are your desired endpoint. Once your ends have been achieved, your strategy has succeeded. Depending on what those ends are, your strategies may no longer even be required after reaching them.
Example: “To neutralise all enemy military forces in the Pacific theatre of war”.
Ways are the methods of achieving Ends. The Ways are the “How?”, “When?” and “Where?” – they are what you are going to do.
Example: “We will cut off fuel supplies to enemy air and naval assets in the Pacific, thereby causing them to run out of operationally deployable fighting forces over the period of the next month”.
Means are the tools used to execute the Ways. The means are the “Who” and the “What?” of the Ways.
Example: “Special forces will be deployed from submarines to destroy the enemy’s hardened underground fuel depots. Naval forces will destroy fuel refineries and pipelines from over the horizon. Air Force units will destroy fuel transport vehicles and ad hoc targets of opportunity”.
We can apply this to crypto.
Crypto Strategies
On the Grand Strategy level we can say that crypto exists to replace world money systems and to disrupt and replace the existing money/power dynamic. That’s way beyond what we as individuals can do. We all play a little part of that larger game, but it’s not what this post is about. Let’s rather look at whatyou can influence to a large degree, what You can do for Yourself.
So you’re a crypto investor, or a trader, or both. Perhaps you work for a crypto company, or perhaps you started your own crypto company. Maybe you just enjoy writing about it in blogs like the one you’re reading now, or maybe you watch adverts on Brave browser all day so that you can build up free BAT tokens and give tips to sites that depend on voluntary funding.
Whatever you do with crypto, it’s time to start asking yourself: “What’s my endgame?“
Why are you doing what you are doing? What is the logical conclusion? What are you trying to achieve? Where and when does it stop?
In other words: What are the Ends of your strategy?
Do you have them? Are they well defined? Do you know exactly what you want crypto to do for you?
Admission of guilt
I don’t have a proper crypto strategy!
I have broad crypto investing strategies. I have a few fairly well-defined goals which I aim to meet, but honestly, I lack that endpoint. I’m writing this today because when I realised this, I realised that others may be in the same boat.
A Crypto Strategy is NOT:
“I want to reach a total of 100 BTC by 2030” or “I want 1 million USD worth of crypto” or “I want to survive the fiat crash by investing in crypto”.
Why not?
Because cryptoISN’Tan End, it’s not even a Way; it’s a Means to an End.
You’ve heard the expression “means to an end” before? Now you know where it comes from.
Get a strategy
I was walking around my garden earlier today, playing with my dogs and enjoying relaxing outside under the clear blue sky. I was extremely content, but bothered because I knew that my contentment came from shutting out the many evils of the world that I am only too aware of.
For now I fight those evils daily. I have been very active in challenging my government this year: there is a long paper trail of me, both in my personal capacity and aligned with multiple civic groups, opposing injustices at every turn. Similarly, I try to fight the bigger international fight (in support of the Grand Strategy of crypto mentioned earlier), some of which you can see on this very blog or on my Twitter account.
But I’m just one man and I can’t do it alone. I realise that I am not doing it alone: many great people fight alongside me – some in small ways, some in big ways. You may be one of them. I won’t stay young forever. I also know (thanks to years of high stress military deployments) that my capacity to endure a high intensity struggle in a negative environment is finite.
In simple terms: I can’t do this forever.
At some stage I need to say that enough is enough, and hand the torch over to the next generation. I need to cash in my chips and leave the casino. I need to be able to sit in my garden and play with my dogs under the clear blue sky, while not worrying about the evils of the world.
But for now, I am still furiously playing the game. What I need to do next is to further align my daily activities with my desired end goal: I need to define the Ends of my strategy and work towards them.
Exactly how I do that will be my Ways. I can only firmly establish those once I know the Ends. I trust that my crypto investments will be the Means, or at least one of the Means I will use to execute my Ways.
The End State (Ends of the Strategy)
I may not have well defined end state to my strategy yet, but I know some of the characteristics that I want it to possess: financial freedom, a pleasant political and social environment in a country which embraces true liberty, a relaxed lifestyle in a safe environment, the ability to work on relationships rather than business and finances etc.
It may sound idyllic and a bit like a pipe dream, but it’s something to work towards. I might not find something that checks all the boxes, but at least those boxes give me a target to aim for.
For those who seek to form their own strategies: an example of a Way to achieve something like what I stated above could be: “reduce fiat holdings to a bare minimum” or “aim to build up 10 BTC in crypto” or one of those other things that I said are not a strategy in themselves.
Conclusion
Life is a journey, and crypto is a part of that journey. God willing, my journey will allow for a period of rest towards the end, a time when I can pull off the busy highway and spend a few years at my final destination in peace and quiet. I can’t tell if that will be possible, but I will do what I can to make that an eventual reality. That is my plan, my End, my strategy.
Until then, I will keep fighting the crypto (and other) battles. Evil triumphs when good men do nothing. If evil is ever going to triumph, then it’s going to have to go through me first. I still have a good couple of decades of fight left in me, before I retire and seek out my version of a Utopian little house with a white picket fence.
Advice time: if you are still young, plan for your future as if you were suddenly going to turn 80 tomorrow. You have no idea how fast time and ageing catches up with you. I did a pretty good job of planning for old age when I was still young, but even so I wish I had done more. Your generation has so much more available to it: electronic banking, broadband internet, cryptocurrencies, easily accessible trading options for precious metals/forex/etc – you can do a LOT more than I did if you start early!
Despite a very strong American and international business culture to the contrary, money is not everything. Money is not “success”! Money will NEVER make you happy. As long as you can lift yourself above the level of “financially struggling” (which can be very hard to do), you can be happy. Try to make a few clever investments while you are still young, so that money is no longer a worry when you are older. Then you can enjoy life.
Look at Warren Buffett: 89 years old, worth 84 Billion USD – but do you think he’s ever enjoyed his life? Do you think he’s ever stopped to smell the roses? I think he’s a miserable old sod, a greedy and small-minded man who cares far too much about wealth and not nearly enough about the things that matter. He’s too busy greedily hoarding his money to ever enjoy spending it! Don’t be like Warren.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.
For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:
During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI
Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:
…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:
The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….
… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:
We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:
The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…
If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…
…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
Beyond Investing is launching the US Vegan Climate Exchange Traded Fund (VGN ETF) on the New York Stock Exchange on September 10th.
The ETF is targeted at vegans looking for climate-conscious investments and is constructed by taking “the Solactive US Large Cap index (a proxy for the S&P 500 Index) and [excluding] any stocks whose activities are incompatible with a vegan and climate-conscious approach to investing,replacing damaging stocks with midcap alternatives that meet its ethical criteria.”
Analysis and Comments
Flows toESG and sustainability-focused fundshave spiked this year, as investors continue to focus on the investment opportunities that address issues such as climate change, (plastics) pollution, or gender pay disparities.
Therefore, you should expect to see continued growth in the number of investment instruments focused on these issues, particularly as worries around uncompetitive “stranded assets” intensify.
According to a recent report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global meat consumption must be reduced to curb global warming and alleviate strains on stretched land and water resources.
As human use directly affects more than 70% of the global ice-free land surface, plant-based foods and sustainable animal-sourced foods could free up several million square kilometres of land by 2050 and cut harmful emissions.
Last year’s report called for rapid changes across society to keep the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, while this year’s report states that “[t]he window for making these changes is closing fast. If there is further delay in reducing emissions, we will miss the opportunity to successfully manage the climate change transition in the land sector.”
Analysis and Comments
According to the report, agriculture, forestry and other land use activities accounted for 23% of total net man-made GHG emissions during 2007-2016 (excluding pre- and post-production activity in the food system).
While the IPCC stops short from actually telling people to go meat-free, it does advocate the benefits of a more plant-based alternative diet, which may be seen as a positive for players in this space (although this is not exactly news).
The Guardian published a highly critical response to the IPCC’s land and climate report (saying that it “irresponsibly understates the true carbon cost of our meat and dairy habits”), which includes a number of very interesting figures – well worth a read!
Nearly 200 CEOs in the US, including companies such as Apple, Bayer, BP, Deere, JPM and Abbott (all members of the “Business Roundtable”) released a new Purpose of a Corporation statement this week.
The new statement shifted from being focused exclusively on creating shareholder value to a much broader remit including all stakeholders such as employees, communities, suppliers and customers. The full statement can be found here.
The Business Roundtable is made up of America’s most influential corporate leaders and has periodically issued Principles of Corporate Governance since 1978, with each version since 1997 having historically endorsed the principle of shareholder primacy.
Analysis and Comments
One of the questions we get on ESG is whether this time it is different or whether companies are just paying lip-service to investor demands for more ESG focused strategy.
The above development is evidence that there is a structural shift within the corporate world. This is significant. America’s largest companies are effectively saying shareholders are nolonger a priority and that a much broader set of goals will be put in place treating other stakeholders on the same level. It’s no longer just about profit. Will be interesting to hear Trump’s thoughts….
Out of 189 members of the Business Roundtable, only Alcoa, Blackstone, GE, Kaiser Permanente, NextEra, Parker Hannifin and State Farm failed to sign up.
I truly believe that one day this is going to happen. Passive investing now accounts for more than HALF of the US stock market and is growing. The movement has officially been made and investors do not use brokers anymore as they run to passive ETFs and index funds. This has been created just over THE PAST 10 YEARS.
At the beginning of the bull run active investments held nearly a 3 to 1 advantage over passive fund assets. That has shrank to…almost ZERO ADVANTAGE present day.
Courtesy of CNBC and Morningster
This type of investing has been killing it over the past decade and continues to gain traction. I believe that at some point this will be a HUGE PROBLEM. Once the next major downturn in the stock market starts, and these PASSIVE inflows slow, then stop, and become outflows, you are going to have a market that may undergo a faster elevator down that has ever been seen.
Over the past 10 years, the passive inflows has helped push the market higher and higher, over and over again. Well when the tide turns…the passive inflows will not push the market down over and over again, they will all run for the exit at once.
Real Estate has been relentless. During a time where NOTHING seems to be going anywhere in the US sectors and the global growth is SLOWING, Real Estate continues to push forward. I am looking at Real Estate at least testing the 94 area from the 2008 highs before pulling back. More Upside to Come.
Speaking of, I am selling my house now if you are in the market
Global growth has been slowing for a while now. Many countries are making lower highs across the board and look awful with even worse incoming data. Yields are crashing. And the only thing left are US Equities. How long can they keep the world a float?
The Vix is sitting at 19 and has built a sideways base. This matches the bear flag of all the indices off the most recent highs. If the bulls have a chance, then they SMASH the Vix like they have the past 4 years to under 16. If the Vix spike, the equity bulls will be few and far between and a liquidity issue will be on our hands for the first time in a few years I am afraid.
Vix over 25 and you will start seeing air pockets. Let’s hope the bulls can hold the line.
