Bitcoin – 16 July

July 16, 2019 Published by timm

I’ve been away for a few days on an impromptu little vacation, hope you didn’t miss me too much!

I probably chose a good time; markets have been pretty dead, and all people want to seem to talk about is Trump vs BTC. Perhaps I’ll deal with that topic myself (because there are some things which need to be said), but I’ll leave that for another day.

I tried not to check BTC prices while I was away – a task in which I failed miserably. The typical poor reception at our holiday spot was unusually good, so like it or not, I kept an eye on Bitcoin. While away, I noticed a new pattern emerging, which is what this post is about:

First things first: I have re-calibrated my Fib levels to take the latest dip into account. That’s not strictly relevant to this post, but you will see those coloured Fib levels on some of the charts.

Most noticeable on the chart below is the possible converging triangle formed after the latest price dip to $10000. The triangle is neither inherently bullish nor bearish in construction, so that leaves BTC with options of either climbing or dropping in price; we’ll get to that a little later in this post. I say possible triangle because I’m not too sure if this is a triangle or perhaps just a something which will soon become truncated into a pennant.

As seen below, I believe that there is a possibility that this is a bull pennant. If that is the case, then we can expect BTC to either carry on climbing now, or perhaps about two weeks into the future (which is the rough time gap between successive high points in the current pattern. It could even remain trapped within the pennant for multiple additional bounces, in which case it would only break out about a month from now. By that stage the pennant would have become a triangle anyway, and the break would probably be positive due to the continued high volume of the market and the fact that decreasing volatility (as the triangle narrows) would inspire confidence in more timid investors.

On the other hand we could be looking at a downwards break. I’ve seen this pattern before: in mid-2017. During the first few months of the now famous bullish climb to $20000, Bitcoin went through a few of these calm periods where it consolidated and retraced before continuing its climb. We look to be in a similar position to what happened in the circled area below (in June 2017). Back then it was followed by a steep dip and then a rapid recovery and climb.

Zooming out you can see what happened after that. Also take note that even during the worst times of the 2018 bear market capitulation, the start-of-climb prices were never reached. The very bottom of the 2018 bear market stayed above that highest point of the June 2017 consolidation. Potentially this implies that the next major bear market may bottom above the levels we have been seeing lately (about $14000), though we could still have several similar consolidation periods and this particular one may be nothing special.

Whether we are looking at a converging triangle, a bull pennant, or some sort of repetition of the 2017 climb; the future of Bitcoin looks very bright. Fundamentally speaking, while there is a lot of talk about it, it appears that institutional investment hardly features in the cryptocurrency market yet, it still seems to be retail investors driving up the price. That means that Bitcoin has still got virtually unlimited growth capacity for at least next couple of years. I still believe we are only at the start of what should be a record-breaking bull run.

If BTC is to mimic the 2017 dip-and-climb, then it should find support in the $8800 – $7700 region (as indicated below). I’m basing that on the the 2017 event again: it found support at its previous brief consolidation level – which was not as well defined at the $8800 – $7700 consolidation support level that we have this time.

That’s all for now. Keep an eye on that triangle/flag as it narrows: things should get interesting towards the end of the month.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain using TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”

~ Bit Brain

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BTC – 11 July

July 11, 2019 Published by timm

This is a quick look at what BTC is up to today and what it might do in the next day or two.

I remind you that I post a steady stream of short crypto updates and suggestions on Twitter. As you will see, most of what I say today has already been said there some time ago. Twitter is the place to be if you want my real-time analysis of crypto price action.

Well the Libranauts are out in full swing again, once again claiming that Libra decisions have affected the price of Bitcoin. This is not just wrong, it’s stupid! Anybody with half an eyeball would have seen markets jumping all over the show yesterday: crypto, precious metals, forex. I’m SURE that the Fed discussing the future of interest rate cuts was not the real reason for the BTC dip!

Bitcoin:

Gold:

The S&P 500:

Even the Euro:

Clearly global finances are now only concerned about one thing: Mark Zuckerberg’s fake crypto. Honestly, this Libra hysteria is beyond belief! It brings out the worst in me: during my basic military training phase – many moons ago – we had an instructor who always used to threaten us with: “I’ll rip your arm off and hit you with the bloody side!”. If only I could catch a journalist in the act of writing such Libra rubbish, I would feel obliged to carry out that particular form of “behaviour correction”!

Rant complete.

As I was saying before I so rudely interrupted myself: I announce a lot of my crypto ideas on Twitter. This is what I thought yesterday when prices were sliding:

But I was wrong about support holding:

And that’s what I still think for now. Let’s see that on the charts:

I am expecting Bitcoin to find support at about $10900 – the base of the diagonal Fib levels. Since this dip is based on no fault of BTC’s, I expect that the dip will be bought rapidly as people realise this. It remains mind-boggling that investors continue to treat BTC like a regular asset (dumping it at the first sign of FUD), when it clearly plays according to different rules. Maybe one day they will learn… – but don’t hold your breath.

Because BTC was upwardly mobile prior to the dump, I expect it to rise fairly fast. probably straight back up to the 0.382 diagonal Fib resistance level which it was testing prior to the dip. That level is sitting above $13k and climbing.

Alternatively: the still shaky market (2018 taught people the meaning of “fear”!) might not have that much confidence, in which case BTC will pull out of the climb one level lower: somewhere near $12500.

I very much doubt that BTC will break the 0.0 Fib level and continue downwards, that would be against all the odds. Still, this is crypto, so let’s say there is a 1% chance that that can happen. Looking at this medium-term chart, it’s hard to imagine such a scenario in an asset which is so bullish at the moment: (though not nearly as bullish as what it may later become!)

A more likely alternative is that BTC – now being suppressed by FUD, breaks straight through the Fib level at around $13500 and climbs to the next higher level. We could be looking at $14400 BTC before the weekend…

Scenario weighting is as follows:

BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.382 diagonal Fib ($13500ish) – 40%
BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.236 diagonal Fib ($12500ish) – 30%
BTC hits support and climbs to the 0.5 diagonal Fib ($14300ish) – 15%
BTC breaks support and heads lower – 1%
Something else – 14%

Even though Libra isn’t to blame for this, blaming the Fed is hardly much better. Yes, it DID probably cause this dip, but it shouldn’t have. Sadly we still live in a fiat-centred wordl. I live for the day that crypto take over and that fiat events no longer mater to anyone. Hopefully I live to see that day.

Don’t listen to moronic journalists and “analysts”, listen to Bit Brian.