Buying BTC for Investors – Current Market

The market remains lacklustre, but relatively predictable. I’ve had more success with recent BTC price predictions than what I normally have – which gives me added confidence in my current buying strategy. This post explains that strategy.

It’s no secret that I have had BTC buy orders in the $8000s for a good few weeks now, if not months. I constantly check the charts and update my TA in order to ensure that my buy orders remain valid. At the moment, I am happy that they are set at the right prices. I will now explain why:

Firstly, take note that I have done away with my regular diagonal Fib levels for the time being. As the bullish price action drew to a close, so those levels started to lose their relevance. The nature of the current market correction is such that diagonal Fib levels no longer a reliable means of price prediction. Obviously this will change at a later date, but for now I find no value in using them.

I predicted a BTC reversal of fortunes and a price drop over the weekend (on Twitter and in the TIMM Trading Pits). That price reversal/drop occurred late on Friday.

https://twitter.com/brain_bit/status/1169959815923273728

Calling the price turnaround was not hard, the TA was pretty clear. What is still unclear for now, is whether BTC is in a bearish converging triangle or a negative channel. Fortunately this doesn’t matter much – as the outcomes of the two are fairly similar – at least for investors.

Below we can clearly see how BTC respected the top of the channel/triangle and became negative – a trend which should now continue for the remainder of the working week, possibly longer.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

It could be that the top of my channel/triangle is not correct (because I have excluded short-term outlier candles), but thanks to the latest data, it looks as if making the top of such a channel/triangle less steep does not tie in with the observed price movement data. The upper limiting line which I have created ties in nicely with the bottom of the channel, i.e. it runs parallel to it, giving credence to my theory that what looks like a triangle may still be a channel.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Channel or not, we are seeing support at $9500 – giving credence to my theory that BTC may be in a triangle despite looking as if it is in a channel. Looking at the bigger picture, I see no reason why BTC can’t be in a triangle within a channel – which I now believe is actually the most likely state of affairs.

Upon reaching support at $9500, I believe there is a good chance that support will not hold (as indicated on the chart below). Perhaps I’m wrong and it will hold. Perhaps BTC will bounce back up to the top of the triangle, before turning negative again. Much like I said in my post a week ago, other indicators such as trading volume and various momentum indicators show that a positive breakout for BTC is very unlikely at this stage. What this means is: if BTC does not break downwards through the bottom of the triangle this time, then it will probably do so the next time it tests the $9500 support level.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Looking at the chart above in more detail, we can see a historical support level exists between roughly $8100 and $7500. Provided that BTC price does break lower, I expect this support level to arrest the drop in price. Should it fail to do so, then price should stop dropping when it reaches the bottom of the channel – roughly at $7000 (that price changes over time due to the downwards slope of the channel).

So where should an investor look for a buy point?

Bit Brain’s BTC Buying Tactics

There is a risk that BTC hits the bottom of the triangle, and then bounces back upwards, never to return so low again. Chances of this happening are slight, but not negligible. For this reason it may be a good idea to buy at the turnaround point of $9500. I am making $9500 an “Optional Buy Point’ for myself. 

If BTC price decline slows significantly as it approaches $9500, I will assume that it does not have the momentum to break through, and will set a buy order just North of $9500 to avoid missing out on the dip. This will not be a big order – perhaps about 20% of my allocated funds – because there is still a fair chance that price will drop lower later on.

However, if BTC approaches $9500 at speed, chances are that it will shatter the support there. In such a scenario I will not buy at $9500, instead I will wait to buy in the $8000s, as I have been for the last couple of months. Since there are no other meaningful support levels in the area, I will not buy in the low $9000s. If BTC does break downwards through $9500, it should hit the $8000s – which is where I will start buying (as indicated on the chart below).

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“Buy Zone 1” is my main buying zone, it lies between $9000 and $8100. I plan to spend 60% of my allocated BTC buying funds there – with the option of spending more if it looks like BTC won’t go any lower than $8000. I have buy orders at around $8900, $8500 and $8200 – these vary as my local currency fluctuates against the dollar, so I have to adjust them from time to time. At $8100 we once again encounter historical support – so that is where I stop buying.

Should BTC break through that support, I will be ready to pick it up at prices of between $7400 and $7000. This is “Buy Zone 2”. $7000 is the bottom of the channel (at least for now). If BTC fails to reach Buy Zone 2, then I will spend all of my BTC buying funds as the price moves back upwards through “Buy Zone 1”.

I do not see a scenario where BTC will drop below $7000. Firstly, because $7000 is the bottom of the channel, but secondly (and probably more importantly), because BTC can’t drop below $7000 without breaking through the Long-term Base Trendline. (as seen below).

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

The Long-Term Base Trendline is four years old and well established. It is highly unlikely that BTC can remain below the level of this trendline for very long. As a side note: I believe this trendline to be a measure of BTC adoption as well as the baseline from which any rally is launched. Interestingly, if I’m right about that, it means that reaching the trendline indicates that there is no hype in the market at that time.

If BTC does break though the long-term trendline, it will become incredibly unstable and likely to bounce back fast and hard. It also means that I will be willing to place even more money into it – money I will rob from my normal fiat money savings accounts. Obviously this is risky and not something I would recommend for most people. I’m telling you what I will do under such circumstances, not what you should do. 

This unlikely buying opportunity is labelled “Unlikely Buy Zone” on the chart below.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

That rounds up my latest weekly look at BTC. As for the rest of the market: altcoins remain in decline – providing excellent buying opportunities for shrewd investors who are willing to do their homework. In the bigger picture, I watched in amazement late last week at how money floods out of stores of value and back into the fiat-based markets on the slightest little whiff of optimism wrt US/China trade talks. They’re not even building a house of cards anymore, they’re building a house of rice paper. And it’s starting to rain…

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 02 September

In “BTC analysis – 26 August” I updated my latest thoughts on Bitcoin’s medium-term movements. Since then a price reversal in the $9300s has forced a reassessment of that situation.

Previously I spoke of a bull flag. That flag was forming in a descending channel and was adhering to diagonal Fib levels as it did so, something like this:

But what appeared to be a series of higher lows caused me to reconsider and change the flag into a pennant, as seen in my BTC post last week:

Now things have changed again – or at least may be about to change.

The price movements of this last weekend may have altered the bull pennant into a more bearish converging triangle pattern.

At this stage we require a confirmation move, which we will get, one way or another.

Scenarios:

The chart below shows the two main scenarios that we may now be dealing with.

In Scenario 1 BTC is forming a converging triangle with a near-horizontal base. Scenario 1 will be confirmed if price continues to rise to about $11000.

In Scenario 2 BTC is still in a descending channel. Scenario 2 will be confirmed if BTC ceases to rise well short of $11000 and then falls below $9300 for a sustained period (more than just a few hours).

Scenario 1

If Scenario 1 is correct then it is most likely that BTC price will remain in the triangle until the final quarter of 2019, after which it will probably break downwards. We can see that a downwards break is more likely, because a flat-bottomed triangle is an indication that support is continually being tested. Eventually that support “runs out” (as buy orders are filled and traders decline to place new orders that high in a market which is turning bearish). In addition to that, most momentum indicators (such as the MACD, RSI or long-term MAs) will show that momentum is becoming/has become negative. Most telling of all is the volume, which is still steadily declining.

In the likely even that BTC does break out of this (unconfirmed) triangle in a downwards direction, the big question will be “How Low?”
Recent support lies in the high $7000s/low $8000s. That is enough to catch the dip, but don’t get a shock if it fails to hold there. If support breaks, then the next recent support level only lies at $5600 and below. I think that any dip that low will be very short lived. If you do see BTC that low then buy like crazy! Between the high $7000s and $5600 is another possible support level in the mid to low $6000s. This is the support level established in 2018, though its continued existence is uncertain because:

  1. It broke conclusively in November 2018.
  2. No resistance was encountered at that level when BTC climbed through it in May of 2019.

After the dip, we can expect a rapid recover and then a steady climb along the long-term base trendline for BTC – until the market turns properly bullish and hype sets in.

Scenario 2

If Scenario 2 is correct, then BTC will most likely decrease in price all the way to the bottom of the channel. Since the channel is downwards sloping, the price level at which BTC hits the bottom of the channel continually decreases over time. Were price to reach the bottom of the channel today, then it would be at around $8000. But if it only reaches it a month from now, then it will be in the mid-$7000s.

Scenario 2 is still reminiscent of a bull flag, which means that it precedes a swift increase in price after hitting the channel bottom. It is unlikely that price would then bounce up and down for yet another cycle within the channel, that would be too unusual.

Likelihood

I consider Scenario 1 to be a very likely Scenario. I allocate a probability of 55% to Scenario 1.
Scenario 2 is not very likely anymore. I allocate a probability of 20 % to Scenario 2.
The remaining 25% is for “something else” – an as yet unforeseen price movement or variation of one of the above scenarios.

Conclusion

Whatever happens, I am predicting a relatively bearish two or three months. I think we will see a decent sized dip soon. I have been waiting with Buy orders in the $8000s for a few weeks now. Depending on what happens next, I will consider shifting some or all of those orders a bit lower, and/or perhaps placing additional Buy orders at even lower prices.

I do not see the market really picking up before December 2019 at the earliest, but on the other hand, I’m predicting a stellar (not Lumens) 2020 for BTC and crypto in general! For now I will continue to stack little bits of BTC if I can afford it, AND ALTCOINS! There is blood on the streets, this is the time to accumulate alts!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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BTC – Beginning of the Week Analysis

So far, BTC has been bullish in August of 2019 (well – actually since the final day of July).

As usual, the mass media is throwing its theories around (such as THIS one) as to why this may be. Most of them are wrong, but let them throw their theories around anyway – it keeps them busy.

Looking at the market broadly, I would suggest that investor confidence is still relatively shaky, despite good 2019 BTC gains. This is evidenced in the poor performance of altcoins, a good indicator that “Adventurous” and “Confident” are not words to be attributed to investors at this point in time. Instead, I think that BTC price has been growing on the increase in trading volume alone (i.e. increased adoption): by now you are all well aware that 2019 volume is massive – even when compared to that of the 2017 bull run. (See volume on chart below)

From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts

Exciting news! I have started working on a new cryptocurrency metric: a quantitative metric used to determine the investor confidence of the market. Honestly I haven’t checked if such a metric exists yet, perhaps I am just re-inventing the wheel. It’s not the “Bitcoin Misery Index” (I’m using a very different method to what Thomas Lee uses) – but it will give similar results. Either way I’m still busy developing it – learning (mostly by trial and error) the right formulas to use in Google Sheets to make it work. Hopefully I will have it finished soon – I’ll be sure to show you the results when (if?) I do finish!

Back to BTC:

While the ever-fickle media with its goldfish-duration memory is certainly suddenly bullish again, I caution against becoming bullish too fast. The charts below will show you why.

BTC has been in a channel for about a month. Back in this post of 16 July, I identified the top of the channel, but the bottom had yet to be formed, so I took it as a pennant instead.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/btc-11-july/

This made me bullish on BTC in the medium-term, though I soon found out that my pennant was not a pennant at all. Strangely, this has no affect on my medium-term projections for BTC.

Later on BTC dipped, thereby forming a channel, which I then indicated in my 23 July postwhere I concluded that BTC may be forming a Bull Flag.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

While BTC has not dipped all the way back down to the bottom of that flag/channel, it has also not yet broken free of it.

Here is BTC today:

As you can clearly see on the chart above, BTC is at a turning point. Either it can breakout of the channel and climb, or it can dip sharply back downwards. I will only turn bullish if BTC breaks out of the top of channel and stays out for a day or more. Obviously this is short-term bullish, in the medium and long-terms I am bullish thanks to the bull flag and to the fundamentals of BTC respectively.

Should BTC fail to breakout, then the rejection dip should look something similar to this:

The bottom of the channel also coincides nicely with an already-consolidated support/resistance level in the mid-$7000s to mid-$8000s region. This will provide strong support and should prevent BTC from breaking through the bottom of the channel if it does head back in that direction.

Having said that: take note that similar price movement patterns in 2017 did sometimes end in a flash crash, followed by an equally rapid recovery (the crash and recovery taking only 2 to 3 days in total). The chart below from “Bitcoin – possible next moves” illustrates what I am talking about. See that post for more details and further examples.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

Summary:

If BTC does breakout within the next day or two, then we may well see an new 2019 BTC high this week. The next most likely option is that it will drop down to the bottom of the channel – still remaining within the confines of the Bull Flag and buoyed by the consolidation which took place in May/June.

Percentage allocation for possible future BTC price movement:

  • BTC breaks out of the top of the channel: 35%
  • BTC heads back down to the bottom of the channel, or perhaps the 0.786 retracement level (as it did last time): 30%
  • BTC heads back down and breaks through the bottom of the channel: 10%
  • Something else (e.g. Sideways movement, movement along diagonal Fib lines): 25%

Yours in crypto
Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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Bitcoin – possible next moves

 

Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy

Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.

As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.

 

Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:

 

Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.

 

My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.

Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.

 

Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:

 

And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:

 

…and similar patterns from earlier times too.

 

The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.

Summary:

I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.

I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.

I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.

Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:

  1. BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
  2. My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
 
 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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Bitcoin – 16 July

 

I’ve been away for a few days on an impromptu little vacation, hope you didn’t miss me too much!

I probably chose a good time; markets have been pretty dead, and all people want to seem to talk about is Trump vs BTC. Perhaps I’ll deal with that topic myself (because there are some things which need to be said), but I’ll leave that for another day.

I tried not to check BTC prices while I was away – a task in which I failed miserably. The typical poor reception at our holiday spot was unusually good, so like it or not, I kept an eye on Bitcoin. While away, I noticed a new pattern emerging, which is what this post is about:

First things first: I have re-calibrated my Fib levels to take the latest dip into account. That’s not strictly relevant to this post, but you will see those coloured Fib levels on some of the charts.

Most noticeable on the chart below is the possible converging triangle formed after the latest price dip to $10000. The triangle is neither inherently bullish nor bearish in construction, so that leaves BTC with options of either climbing or dropping in price; we’ll get to that a little later in this post. I say possible triangle because I’m not too sure if this is a triangle or perhaps just a something which will soon become truncated into a pennant.

 

As seen below, I believe that there is a possibility that this is a bull pennant. If that is the case, then we can expect BTC to either carry on climbing now, or perhaps about two weeks into the future (which is the rough time gap between successive high points in the current pattern. It could even remain trapped within the pennant for multiple additional bounces, in which case it would only break out about a month from now. By that stage the pennant would have become a triangle anyway, and the break would probably be positive due to the continued high volume of the market and the fact that decreasing volatility (as the triangle narrows) would inspire confidence in more timid investors.

 

On the other hand we could be looking at a downwards break. I’ve seen this pattern before: in mid-2017. During the first few months of the now famous bullish climb to $20000, Bitcoin went through a few of these calm periods where it consolidated and retraced before continuing its climb. We look to be in a similar position to what happened in the circled area below (in June 2017). Back then it was followed by a steep dip and then a rapid recovery and climb.

 

Zooming out you can see what happened after that. Also take note that even during the worst times of the 2018 bear market capitulation, the start-of-climb prices were never reached. The very bottom of the 2018 bear market stayed above that highest point of the June 2017 consolidation. Potentially this implies that the next major bear market may bottom above the levels we have been seeing lately (about $14000), though we could still have several similar consolidation periods and this particular one may be nothing special.

 

Whether we are looking at a converging triangle, a bull pennant, or some sort of repetition of the 2017 climb; the future of Bitcoin looks very bright. Fundamentally speaking, while there is a lot of talk about it, it appears that institutional investment hardly features in the cryptocurrency market yet, it still seems to be retail investors driving up the price. That means that Bitcoin has still got virtually unlimited growth capacity for at least next couple of years. I still believe we are only at the start of what should be a record-breaking bull run.

 

If BTC is to mimic the 2017 dip-and-climb, then it should find support in the $8800 – $7700 region (as indicated below). I’m basing that on the the 2017 event again: it found support at its previous brief consolidation level – which was not as well defined at the $8800 – $7700 consolidation support level that we have this time.

 

That’s all for now. Keep an eye on that triangle/flag as it narrows: things should get interesting towards the end of the month.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain using TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

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~ Bit Brain

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BTC – 11 July

This is a quick look at what BTC is up to today and what it might do in the next day or two.

 

I remind you that I post a steady stream of short crypto updates and suggestions on Twitter. As you will see, most of what I say today has already been said there some time ago. Twitter is the place to be if you want my real-time analysis of crypto price action.

Well the Libranauts are out in full swing again, once again claiming that Libra decisions have affected the price of Bitcoin. This is not just wrong, it’s stupid! Anybody with half an eyeball would have seen markets jumping all over the show yesterday: crypto, precious metals, forex. I’m SURE that the Fed discussing the future of interest rate cuts was not the real reason for the BTC dip!

Bitcoin:

 

Gold:

 

The S&P 500:

 

Even the Euro:

 

Clearly global finances are now only concerned about one thing: Mark Zuckerberg’s fake crypto. Honestly, this Libra hysteria is beyond belief! It brings out the worst in me: during my basic military training phase – many moons ago – we had an instructor who always used to threaten us with: “I’ll rip your arm off and hit you with the bloody side!”. If only I could catch a journalist in the act of writing such Libra rubbish, I would feel obliged to carry out that particular form of “behaviour correction”!

Rant complete.

As I was saying before I so rudely interrupted myself: I announce a lot of my crypto ideas on Twitter. This is what I thought yesterday when prices were sliding:

 

But I was wrong about support holding:

 

And that’s what I still think for now. Let’s see that on the charts:

I am expecting Bitcoin to find support at about $10900 – the base of the diagonal Fib levels. Since this dip is based on no fault of BTC’s, I expect that the dip will be bought rapidly as people realise this. It remains mind-boggling that investors continue to treat BTC like a regular asset (dumping it at the first sign of FUD), when it clearly plays according to different rules. Maybe one day they will learn… – but don’t hold your breath.

Because BTC was upwardly mobile prior to the dump, I expect it to rise fairly fast. probably straight back up to the 0.382 diagonal Fib resistance level which it was testing prior to the dip. That level is sitting above $13k and climbing.

 

Alternatively: the still shaky market (2018 taught people the meaning of “fear”!) might not have that much confidence, in which case BTC will pull out of the climb one level lower: somewhere near $12500.

 

I very much doubt that BTC will break the 0.0 Fib level and continue downwards, that would be against all the odds. Still, this is crypto, so let’s say there is a 1% chance that that can happen. Looking at this medium-term chart, it’s hard to imagine such a scenario in an asset which is so bullish at the moment: (though not nearly as bullish as what it may later become!)

 

A more likely alternative is that BTC – now being suppressed by FUD, breaks straight through the Fib level at around $13500 and climbs to the next higher level. We could be looking at $14400 BTC before the weekend…

 

Scenario weighting is as follows:

  • BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.382 diagonal Fib ($13500ish) – 40%
  • BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.236 diagonal Fib ($12500ish) – 30%
  • BTC hits support and climbs to the 0.5 diagonal Fib ($14300ish) – 15%
  • BTC breaks support and heads lower – 1%
  • Something else – 14%

Even though Libra isn’t to blame for this, blaming the Fed is hardly much better. Yes, it DID probably cause this dip, but it shouldn’t have. Sadly we still live in a fiat-centred wordl. I live for the day that crypto take over and that fiat events no longer mater to anyone. Hopefully I live to see that day.

 

Don’t listen to moronic journalists and “analysts”, listen to Bit Brian.

 

 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain on TradingView

All Tweets from https://twitter.com/brain_bit

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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BTC – 02 June

 

I’m not going to write you a BTC post today, I’ve already written everything that I wanted to.

I’m just going to re-show you things in case you missed them.

This post is a loosely related to my Bitcoin post (“Let’s talk BTC”) from last Friday.

But what this post is closely related to is my Twitter feed. A note to the new and a reminder to the old: I don’t blog about everything, especially short-term price movements in crypto, metals, stock market indices etc. – but I often mention them on Twitter. I therefore advise you to follow me at: https://twitter.com/brain_bit, you know; that link at the bottom of my blog posts which you always ignore 😉

No I’m kidding, I’m sure you remembered to follow ol’ Bit Brain, in which case I’m sure you’ve seen all of this before:

You saw on the weekend when I spoke about the possibility of a drop to about $10k:

 

You saw the BTC/Gold correlation (for those who still need proof that BTC is becoming a very important Store-of-Value):

 

You saw yesterday when I used diagonal Fib levels (which I still don’t see ANY other analysts using) to predict the next bottom at $9700 (today).

 

You saw how this also ties in with the last BTC market cycle (whether or not that will later prove to be relevant).

 

You saw BTC turn exactly where I predicted this morning:

 

Let’s just take another zoomed-in look at that candle wick, my Fib levels, my long-term trendline and my prediction arrow:

 

Seen better lately?

Mini-Discussion:

Ignore my narcissistic personality, that’s just Bit Brain being Bit Brain. The POINT is, I do give information on Twitter which may sometimes prove to be useful.

As mentioned in the last Tweet, I do think that BTC may have finished dropping for now, but it will take a break North of $11100 (above the 0.236 diagonal Fib) to confirm that. Being diagonal Fib levels, that figure increases daily. if I am wrong and BTC does drop below $9700, then the next support lies at $9000. Failing that, the mid-$7000s are on the cards.

A bullish Q2 to 2019 has introduced a large number of new weak hands to the market. This period of flux is caused by the weak hands shaking out while the more experienced and intelligent money buys up the BTC that the weak hands dump. It’s all part of the cycle and I welcome it. The more small dips we have, the stronger BTC can climb and the longer the bulls can run without crashing.

 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All Tweets from https://twitter.com/brain_bit
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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BTC technical analysis

BTC seen from the temporality of 4H we can see how the current structure of candles carries an excellent count of a distribution scheme, accepting this premise, the current bullish movement should be the failed rally, this has to be confirmed even with a closure below the support located at 8200 and a subsequent test as resistance, in the chart I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price should follow in the process.

BTC seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the previous wing that has made the closing above the resistance has done with very little

Bitcoin – This is what’s happening

Today I’ll do my favourite type of TA post: where I show you charts and let you make up your mind. I’ll point out the patterns and movements which I see – you get to decide if I’m right or not. (*Spoiler alert* – I’m pretty good at being right…)

Chart 1: The Long-term chart

The long-term chart is important because it sets the “climb angle” for BTC as a whole. I have seen several long-term logarithmic charts lately, with each successive bull markets showing a declining angle of climb. I don’t consider those charts to be correct. The technical analysis of

BTC: Not putting my money where my mouth is

I was faced with a very difficult decision this past weekend: Buy BTC or don’t buy BTC.

Last month I described a crypto buying process ( “Buy crypto now! – Like this:” ), a process which I believe best suits the current market conditions. Because it is an optimal buying-in strategy, I have been trying hard to stick to it. However, some unfortunate local circumstances have created a sudden urgency in my need to acquire more BTC. Due to my particular financial situation, these circumstances will not apply to you, but what I have learnt from this situation may well assist