Bitcoin – possible next moves

 

Bitcoin continues to tread water – with gradual negative changes to its buoyancy

Here is what I think may be happening now, and what may happen next.

As BTC is clearly no longer rising in price, I have abandoned my bullish channel diagonal Fib levels and have replaced them with downwards sloping diagonal Fib retracement levels.

 

Viewed in the medium-term, the new levels look like this:

 

Seeing the above chart, my immediate thought was that BTC may be forming a bull flag. If it is a bull flag, then the most likely next move would be for BTC to break upwards out of the flag and to continue rising on the previous trajectory. This is not to say that BTC will not dip further before that happens.

 

My confidence factor wrt the bull flag scenario is not extremely high, it’s more a possibility than a probability. I place a likelihood of 40% on it being a bull flag. Because of this I would be cautious in trading it as a traditional bull flag – not that I trade BTC anyway, because I’m a hodler by nature.

Bull flag or not, BTC is dipping at the moment. While the drop in price may be arrested sooner, the new diagonal Fib levels indicate a possible bottom at around $8800. Remember that the Fib levels are sloping downwards, so if BTC dips later than expected, or if it dips again after that, then $8800 will no longer be the bottom of the dip. If BTC were to dip again in August, it would only find support in the $8500 – $8000 region.

 

Another thing I can’t help noticing is the similarity between this price movement, and that of various BTC price movements in 2017. Here is what BTC looks like now:

 

And here are similar BTC patterns from 2017:

 

…and similar patterns from earlier times too.

 

The important take away message from this is that this pattern is invariably seen during bull markets and usually precedes a price climb – before it reoccurs.

Summary:

I can’t tell what BTC will do next, but I am expecting a dip. After the dip there may well be another dip, or even multiple dips before BTC climbs again. It looks as if BTC will resumes its climb after the upcoming dips.

I think we are seeing a consolidation period, a time when weak hands are selling their 2019 gains and stronger hands are replacing the weak ones every time the price dips. Once this transfer process has completed, strong hands should dominate and the climb should resume.

I still think that 2019 bullishness kicked in too soon. The 2018 bear market is still fresh in the memories (and on the charts) of most investors: a reminder to be cautious. This is causing the price rise to be a case of “two steps forward, one step back” which is probably a healthier way to climb than an all out run to new highs. Consolidation makes a climb more sustainable, less volatile and less likely to lead to a big crash at the end of the climb – so it’s a good thing for investors.

Even though I am out of spending money, if BTC dips into the $8000s, I will consider using some of my fiat savings to buy more. This reasons for this are twofold:

  1. BTC has become more legitimate than I expected, sooner than I expected. It features prominently in mainsteam media and is often commented on by world leaders. Whether the press is in favour of it or against it, the exposure is good for BTC and the man in the street is starting to view it as a real contender/threat to fiat money.
  2. My faith in fiat diminishes by the day. Unfortunately, the majority of my saving are still in fiat. I am actively seeking good stores-of-value to place some of my fiat savings into. Crypto is risky, so one must be very careful about shifting money into crypto, but if I am going to be taking money out of fiat, then I might as well put a little more of that money into crypto. The rest will probably go into precious metals, I’m still busy deciding and watching the markets closely.
 
 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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Bitcoin – 16 July

 

I’ve been away for a few days on an impromptu little vacation, hope you didn’t miss me too much!

I probably chose a good time; markets have been pretty dead, and all people want to seem to talk about is Trump vs BTC. Perhaps I’ll deal with that topic myself (because there are some things which need to be said), but I’ll leave that for another day.

I tried not to check BTC prices while I was away – a task in which I failed miserably. The typical poor reception at our holiday spot was unusually good, so like it or not, I kept an eye on Bitcoin. While away, I noticed a new pattern emerging, which is what this post is about:

First things first: I have re-calibrated my Fib levels to take the latest dip into account. That’s not strictly relevant to this post, but you will see those coloured Fib levels on some of the charts.

Most noticeable on the chart below is the possible converging triangle formed after the latest price dip to $10000. The triangle is neither inherently bullish nor bearish in construction, so that leaves BTC with options of either climbing or dropping in price; we’ll get to that a little later in this post. I say possible triangle because I’m not too sure if this is a triangle or perhaps just a something which will soon become truncated into a pennant.

 

As seen below, I believe that there is a possibility that this is a bull pennant. If that is the case, then we can expect BTC to either carry on climbing now, or perhaps about two weeks into the future (which is the rough time gap between successive high points in the current pattern. It could even remain trapped within the pennant for multiple additional bounces, in which case it would only break out about a month from now. By that stage the pennant would have become a triangle anyway, and the break would probably be positive due to the continued high volume of the market and the fact that decreasing volatility (as the triangle narrows) would inspire confidence in more timid investors.

 

On the other hand we could be looking at a downwards break. I’ve seen this pattern before: in mid-2017. During the first few months of the now famous bullish climb to $20000, Bitcoin went through a few of these calm periods where it consolidated and retraced before continuing its climb. We look to be in a similar position to what happened in the circled area below (in June 2017). Back then it was followed by a steep dip and then a rapid recovery and climb.

 

Zooming out you can see what happened after that. Also take note that even during the worst times of the 2018 bear market capitulation, the start-of-climb prices were never reached. The very bottom of the 2018 bear market stayed above that highest point of the June 2017 consolidation. Potentially this implies that the next major bear market may bottom above the levels we have been seeing lately (about $14000), though we could still have several similar consolidation periods and this particular one may be nothing special.

 

Whether we are looking at a converging triangle, a bull pennant, or some sort of repetition of the 2017 climb; the future of Bitcoin looks very bright. Fundamentally speaking, while there is a lot of talk about it, it appears that institutional investment hardly features in the cryptocurrency market yet, it still seems to be retail investors driving up the price. That means that Bitcoin has still got virtually unlimited growth capacity for at least next couple of years. I still believe we are only at the start of what should be a record-breaking bull run.

 

If BTC is to mimic the 2017 dip-and-climb, then it should find support in the $8800 – $7700 region (as indicated below). I’m basing that on the the 2017 event again: it found support at its previous brief consolidation level – which was not as well defined at the $8800 – $7700 consolidation support level that we have this time.

 

That’s all for now. Keep an eye on that triangle/flag as it narrows: things should get interesting towards the end of the month.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain using TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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BTC – 11 July

This is a quick look at what BTC is up to today and what it might do in the next day or two.

 

I remind you that I post a steady stream of short crypto updates and suggestions on Twitter. As you will see, most of what I say today has already been said there some time ago. Twitter is the place to be if you want my real-time analysis of crypto price action.

Well the Libranauts are out in full swing again, once again claiming that Libra decisions have affected the price of Bitcoin. This is not just wrong, it’s stupid! Anybody with half an eyeball would have seen markets jumping all over the show yesterday: crypto, precious metals, forex. I’m SURE that the Fed discussing the future of interest rate cuts was not the real reason for the BTC dip!

Bitcoin:

 

Gold:

 

The S&P 500:

 

Even the Euro:

 

Clearly global finances are now only concerned about one thing: Mark Zuckerberg’s fake crypto. Honestly, this Libra hysteria is beyond belief! It brings out the worst in me: during my basic military training phase – many moons ago – we had an instructor who always used to threaten us with: “I’ll rip your arm off and hit you with the bloody side!”. If only I could catch a journalist in the act of writing such Libra rubbish, I would feel obliged to carry out that particular form of “behaviour correction”!

Rant complete.

As I was saying before I so rudely interrupted myself: I announce a lot of my crypto ideas on Twitter. This is what I thought yesterday when prices were sliding:

 

But I was wrong about support holding:

 

And that’s what I still think for now. Let’s see that on the charts:

I am expecting Bitcoin to find support at about $10900 – the base of the diagonal Fib levels. Since this dip is based on no fault of BTC’s, I expect that the dip will be bought rapidly as people realise this. It remains mind-boggling that investors continue to treat BTC like a regular asset (dumping it at the first sign of FUD), when it clearly plays according to different rules. Maybe one day they will learn… – but don’t hold your breath.

Because BTC was upwardly mobile prior to the dump, I expect it to rise fairly fast. probably straight back up to the 0.382 diagonal Fib resistance level which it was testing prior to the dip. That level is sitting above $13k and climbing.

 

Alternatively: the still shaky market (2018 taught people the meaning of “fear”!) might not have that much confidence, in which case BTC will pull out of the climb one level lower: somewhere near $12500.

 

I very much doubt that BTC will break the 0.0 Fib level and continue downwards, that would be against all the odds. Still, this is crypto, so let’s say there is a 1% chance that that can happen. Looking at this medium-term chart, it’s hard to imagine such a scenario in an asset which is so bullish at the moment: (though not nearly as bullish as what it may later become!)

 

A more likely alternative is that BTC – now being suppressed by FUD, breaks straight through the Fib level at around $13500 and climbs to the next higher level. We could be looking at $14400 BTC before the weekend…

 

Scenario weighting is as follows:

  • BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.382 diagonal Fib ($13500ish) – 40%
  • BTC hits support and climbs rapidly back to the 0.236 diagonal Fib ($12500ish) – 30%
  • BTC hits support and climbs to the 0.5 diagonal Fib ($14300ish) – 15%
  • BTC breaks support and heads lower – 1%
  • Something else – 14%

Even though Libra isn’t to blame for this, blaming the Fed is hardly much better. Yes, it DID probably cause this dip, but it shouldn’t have. Sadly we still live in a fiat-centred wordl. I live for the day that crypto take over and that fiat events no longer mater to anyone. Hopefully I live to see that day.

 

Don’t listen to moronic journalists and “analysts”, listen to Bit Brian.

 

 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain on TradingView

All Tweets from https://twitter.com/brain_bit

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

BTC – 02 June

 

I’m not going to write you a BTC post today, I’ve already written everything that I wanted to.

I’m just going to re-show you things in case you missed them.

This post is a loosely related to my Bitcoin post (“Let’s talk BTC”) from last Friday.

But what this post is closely related to is my Twitter feed. A note to the new and a reminder to the old: I don’t blog about everything, especially short-term price movements in crypto, metals, stock market indices etc. – but I often mention them on Twitter. I therefore advise you to follow me at: https://twitter.com/brain_bit, you know; that link at the bottom of my blog posts which you always ignore 😉

No I’m kidding, I’m sure you remembered to follow ol’ Bit Brain, in which case I’m sure you’ve seen all of this before:

You saw on the weekend when I spoke about the possibility of a drop to about $10k:

 

You saw the BTC/Gold correlation (for those who still need proof that BTC is becoming a very important Store-of-Value):

 

You saw yesterday when I used diagonal Fib levels (which I still don’t see ANY other analysts using) to predict the next bottom at $9700 (today).

 

You saw how this also ties in with the last BTC market cycle (whether or not that will later prove to be relevant).

 

You saw BTC turn exactly where I predicted this morning:

 

Let’s just take another zoomed-in look at that candle wick, my Fib levels, my long-term trendline and my prediction arrow:

 

Seen better lately?

Mini-Discussion:

Ignore my narcissistic personality, that’s just Bit Brain being Bit Brain. The POINT is, I do give information on Twitter which may sometimes prove to be useful.

As mentioned in the last Tweet, I do think that BTC may have finished dropping for now, but it will take a break North of $11100 (above the 0.236 diagonal Fib) to confirm that. Being diagonal Fib levels, that figure increases daily. if I am wrong and BTC does drop below $9700, then the next support lies at $9000. Failing that, the mid-$7000s are on the cards.

A bullish Q2 to 2019 has introduced a large number of new weak hands to the market. This period of flux is caused by the weak hands shaking out while the more experienced and intelligent money buys up the BTC that the weak hands dump. It’s all part of the cycle and I welcome it. The more small dips we have, the stronger BTC can climb and the longer the bulls can run without crashing.

 

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All Tweets from https://twitter.com/brain_bit
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:





BTC technical analysis

BTC seen from the temporality of 4H we can see how the current structure of candles carries an excellent count of a distribution scheme, accepting this premise, the current bullish movement should be the failed rally, this has to be confirmed even with a closure below the support located at 8200 and a subsequent test as resistance, in the chart I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price should follow in the process.

BTC seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the previous wing that has made the closing above the resistance has done with very little

Bitcoin – This is what’s happening

Today I’ll do my favourite type of TA post: where I show you charts and let you make up your mind. I’ll point out the patterns and movements which I see – you get to decide if I’m right or not. (*Spoiler alert* – I’m pretty good at being right…)

Chart 1: The Long-term chart

The long-term chart is important because it sets the “climb angle” for BTC as a whole. I have seen several long-term logarithmic charts lately, with each successive bull markets showing a declining angle of climb. I don’t consider those charts to be correct. The technical analysis of

BTC: Not putting my money where my mouth is

I was faced with a very difficult decision this past weekend: Buy BTC or don’t buy BTC.

Last month I described a crypto buying process ( “Buy crypto now! – Like this:” ), a process which I believe best suits the current market conditions. Because it is an optimal buying-in strategy, I have been trying hard to stick to it. However, some unfortunate local circumstances have created a sudden urgency in my need to acquire more BTC. Due to my particular financial situation, these circumstances will not apply to you, but what I have learnt from this situation may well assist

Investing in Crypto is too close to gambling, so let’s gamble!

A long, long time ago (8 months – which is like 8 years in crypto terms) I wrote this post on Steemit: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/investing-in-crypto-is-too-close-to-gambling

In it I complained that outsiders see crypto investing as gambling, but then went on to say that:

“Since we’re being accused of it, we might as well be guilty of it!”

I think that it’s time to be guilty of it again…

Let’s Gamble!

(again)

From https://www.maxpixel.net/Gambling-Game-Bank-Game-Casino-Profit-Roulette-1253622, shared under the CC0 1.0 license

Here is how this works:

The prize is the same as last year’s – simply the most enviable prize in all of the known cryptoverse. If you beat me, and it’s a big “IF” then you

BTC Short-term 13 March

A small short-term BTC price movement forecast – compliments of yours truly

From big to small:

The large converging triangle is still in play – this apex of this triangle lies in mid-July (solid white lines).BTC is still moving downwards after it’s last trip up above $4000. I expect a bounce around $3600 (solid yellow lines).Interim BTC movements are in a North-Easterly direction and are accordance with diagonal Fib levels.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

The bigger picture looks like this:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

In the short-term I expect a BTC movement something like this. Volume is dropping again so

A Bounce is not just a bounce

BTC took a big dip less than a day ago. Unlike other recent dips, it didn’t stay there for long…

The recent BTC dip was significant in size: A drop from around $3894 to $3742 (a $152 difference – BitMex prices) within an hour is a relatively major drop. On any other day, a 3.9% drop in BTC price would be a considered a bad day. This day was different.

Whereas the norm for BTC is to stay at the new level after a sudden price drop or rise, BTC started recovering instantly: regaining and then passing the starting level (of the

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