Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/21/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex $1 MM Challenge – Trade #18 (7-19-19) Sold GBP/CAD

Brexit is an abbreviation for “British exit,” referring to the U.K.’s decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process of Britain staying or not staying in the EU has caused a lot of uncertainty, which in turn has caused the British Pound to continue to drop in price.

Canada reported retail sales for May and reported an unexpected decline in sales as consumers cut back on purchases of groceries, alcohol and clothing. Sales fell 0.1% vs 0.3% increase. This past week, GBP/CAD has pulled back, but on this news, GBP/CAD spiked higher.

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 1.90000 and monthly demand is at 1.58000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the daily supply at 1.64000.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 7/18/19 – Continue To Short The GBP/JPY

One doesn’t have to be British to know the drama that’s been going on in England the last two years due to Brexit. 

Even Richard Branson got into the mix stating that if England leaves the EU it would devastate his company and the British Pound.  Richard believes if England leaves the EU, the British Pound is going to parity against the US dollar. 

Let me throw a curve ball at you, what if the US and China never reach a trade deal?  On Wednesday China urged the Trump administration to “make up its mind” about reaching a trade deal with Beijing and warning that additional tariffs could send negotiations further off track.

Not only will that hurt the British Pound, but the entire EU.  Because the Japanese Yen is considered a safe haven currency, in times of geopolitical or financial turmoil, the Japanese Yen tends to gain against its peers.

The chart suggests to continue to short GBP/JPY at the daily supply at 135.75.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 7/17/19 – How Low Will The Ruble Go???

The analyst who most accurately predicted the ruble’s rally in the second quarter is now its most pessimistic forecaster.

The Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing is the reason Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. Foreign investors who piled into local OFZ bonds in anticipation of the cuts are largely done staking out their positions and the Bank of Russia says it expects the non-resident flows to fade, exposing the currency to further interest-rate reductions.

A second consecutive interest-rate reduction is possible at the central bank’s next meeting and it isn’t ruling out a cut of 50 basis points, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said earlier this month. According to Kosaty, the Bank of Russia will lower rates gradually by 25 basis points in the third and fourth quarters, though a 50 basis-point step is still possible at the July 27 meeting.

Source

So how low can the Ruble fall relative to the US Dollar, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 77.000 and monthly demand is at 50.000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways with a downside bias.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – there is no entry to short at the moment, but the chart suggests price can move down short term to the daily demand at 57.400.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Will Richard Branson Be Right???

Brexit is an abbreviation for “British exit,” referring to the U.K.’s decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process of Britain staying or not staying in the EU has been entertaining to say the least. Former Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, announced his resignation the following day.  Then Theresa May, who replaced Cameron, stepped down in June after facing severe pressure to resign.

It’s been pretty quiet since June, maybe because the new Brexit deadline is late October 31, 2019.  However, Richard Branson, the billionaire had something to say about Brexit today.

Branson told the BBC that a hard Brexit would be “devastating” for Virgin and would lead the group to invest outside the U.K. Virgin Atlantic would lose $125 million (£100 million) of air freight contracts from Europe, after having already seen its costs rise by $125 million (£100 million) after the pound slumped in value following the 2016 referendum.

“The pound was at $1.53 when the referendum took place. The pound today it is at $1.22, $1.23, and the pound will collapse to parity with the dollar if there is a hard Brexit,” said Branson.

Branson’s comments came as the British currency plunged to a two-year low of $1.24 against the dollar earlier this week. The pound has fallen in recent months over concerns about the health of the U.K. economy and the prospect that Boris Johnson, who has argued for no-deal Brexit, will become the U.K.’s next prime minister.

Source

I personally can’t fathom parity with the inevitable fall in the US dollar, but anything is possible in this day and age.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex Price Action Baby, No Technicals or Fundamentals…Trade #22 – Sold AUD/CAD (7/10/19)

10,000 Ft View – Daily Chart

Lets zoom in for the trade set-up. The sellers took out the pivot low, then the next day price returned to the zone.

NOTE: I would have like to see the price move at least 2X the supply zone, the Canadian dollar is stronger than the Aussie dollar at present time.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/8/19

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 7/9/19 – How Much Lower Will The British Pound Go???

The pound slumped to a two-year low as signs of economic downturn mounted in a market increasingly betting that policy makers will have to cut borrowing costs.

The currency reached its weakest level since April 2017 as disappointing retail sales and suggestions that the U.K. economy could be set for its worst quarter since 2012 sapped sentiment. The bleak economic outlook is adding to risk factors for sterling, with money markets pricing in a rate cut by the Bank of England next year.

The pound has fallen about 2% since Prime Minister Theresa May indicated that she would be stepping down

Source

So are there any significant buyers below current price, lets go to the charts to find out?

Based on the monthly chart, the all-time lows sitting at 1.20000.

Based on the weekly chart, the trend is down.

Based on the daily chart, the chart suggests price is heading down to the daily demand at 1.2200.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/8/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market.  Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)       

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)      

Consumer Staples (XLP)                   

Energy (XLE)            

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)        

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)            

Real Estate (XLRE)                   

Technology (XLK)                  

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/8/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 7/2/19 – Aussie Dollar Trying To Make Money Moves

Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday to a record low of 1% in a bid to boost the economy.

The cut is the second in consecutive months. Previously the Reserve Bank of Australia had not shifted the rate in almost three years.

The outlook for the global economy remained reasonable. But uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes was affecting investment and meant that the risks to the global economy were tilted to the downside, Lowe said.

The changes were widely expected after Lowe said in May that inflation was likely to remain below the bank’s target range of 2% to 3% a year and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.

Source

I was expecting the Aussie Dollar to decline and continue to decline, but it didn’t.

This was the same thing that happened last month, the Aussie Dollar rose when they cut rates in June, but the Aussie Dollar rose on the news. I know first hand because I was stopped out on two of my AUD short positions.

What’s interesting right now is the Aussie Dollar formed a double bottom or what I call a “W” pattern.

Thus, I will be monitoring to see if the daily demand at 0.6960 will hold to confirm the “W” pattern.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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