Tag: Forex

The analyst who most accurately predicted the ruble’s rally in the second quarter is now its most pessimistic forecaster.

The Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing is the reason Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. Foreign investors who piled into local OFZ bonds in anticipation of the cuts are largely done staking out their positions and the Bank of Russia says it expects the non-resident flows to fade, exposing the currency to further interest-rate reductions.

A second consecutive interest-rate reduction is possible at the central bank’s next meeting and it isn’t ruling out a cut of 50 basis points, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said earlier this month. According to Kosaty, the Bank of Russia will lower rates gradually by 25 basis points in the third and fourth quarters, though a 50 basis-point step is still possible at the July 27 meeting.

Source

So how low can the Ruble fall relative to the US Dollar, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 77.000 and monthly demand is at 50.000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways with a downside bias.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – there is no entry to short at the moment, but the chart suggests price can move down short term to the daily demand at 57.400.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Brexit is an abbreviation for “British exit,” referring to the U.K.’s decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process of Britain staying or not staying in the EU has been entertaining to say the least. Former Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, announced his resignation the following day.  Then Theresa May, who replaced Cameron, stepped down in June after facing severe pressure to resign.

It’s been pretty quiet since June, maybe because the new Brexit deadline is late October 31, 2019.  However, Richard Branson, the billionaire had something to say about Brexit today.

Branson told the BBC that a hard Brexit would be “devastating” for Virgin and would lead the group to invest outside the U.K. Virgin Atlantic would lose $125 million (£100 million) of air freight contracts from Europe, after having already seen its costs rise by $125 million (£100 million) after the pound slumped in value following the 2016 referendum.

“The pound was at $1.53 when the referendum took place. The pound today it is at $1.22, $1.23, and the pound will collapse to parity with the dollar if there is a hard Brexit,” said Branson.

Branson’s comments came as the British currency plunged to a two-year low of $1.24 against the dollar earlier this week. The pound has fallen in recent months over concerns about the health of the U.K. economy and the prospect that Boris Johnson, who has argued for no-deal Brexit, will become the U.K.’s next prime minister.

Source

I personally can’t fathom parity with the inevitable fall in the US dollar, but anything is possible in this day and age.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

10,000 Ft View – Daily Chart

Lets zoom in for the trade set-up. The sellers took out the pivot low, then the next day price returned to the zone.

NOTE: I would have like to see the price move at least 2X the supply zone, the Canadian dollar is stronger than the Aussie dollar at present time.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 7/8/19

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The pound slumped to a two-year low as signs of economic downturn mounted in a market increasingly betting that policy makers will have to cut borrowing costs.

The currency reached its weakest level since April 2017 as disappointing retail sales and suggestions that the U.K. economy could be set for its worst quarter since 2012 sapped sentiment. The bleak economic outlook is adding to risk factors for sterling, with money markets pricing in a rate cut by the Bank of England next year.

The pound has fallen about 2% since Prime Minister Theresa May indicated that she would be stepping down

Source

So are there any significant buyers below current price, lets go to the charts to find out?

Based on the monthly chart, the all-time lows sitting at 1.20000.

Based on the weekly chart, the trend is down.

Based on the daily chart, the chart suggests price is heading down to the daily demand at 1.2200.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday to a record low of 1% in a bid to boost the economy.

The cut is the second in consecutive months. Previously the Reserve Bank of Australia had not shifted the rate in almost three years.

The outlook for the global economy remained reasonable. But uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes was affecting investment and meant that the risks to the global economy were tilted to the downside, Lowe said.

The changes were widely expected after Lowe said in May that inflation was likely to remain below the bank’s target range of 2% to 3% a year and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.

Source

I was expecting the Aussie Dollar to decline and continue to decline, but it didn’t.

This was the same thing that happened last month, the Aussie Dollar rose when they cut rates in June, but the Aussie Dollar rose on the news. I know first hand because I was stopped out on two of my AUD short positions.

What’s interesting right now is the Aussie Dollar formed a double bottom or what I call a “W” pattern.

Thus, I will be monitoring to see if the daily demand at 0.6960 will hold to confirm the “W” pattern.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The yuan gained and the
safe-haven yen slid against the dollar on Monday as appetite for risk-sensitive
currencies improved after the United States and China agreed to restart their
troubled trade talks.

Although the Canadian
markets closed for Canada Day the continued comments from Iran suggests that
they are unlikely to back down, so if the oil continues to rise, downside on
the Canadian dollar should be limited.

On the news, the CAD/JPY spiked higher, but higher into a daily supply zone.

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 0.05600 and monthly demand is at 0.04600.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the daily supply at 78.000

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

After meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Japan on Saturday on the sidelines of Group of 20 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would hold back on tariffs and that China will buy more farm products.

Trump also said the U.S. Commerce Department would study over the next few days whether to take Huawei off the list of firms banned from buying components and technology from U.S. companies without government approval.

The yuan gained and the safe-haven yen slid against the dollar on Monday as appetite for risk-sensitive currencies improved after the United States and China agreed to restart their troubled trade talks.

Source

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 121.00 and monthly demand is at 97.000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways with downward momentum.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to go short at the daily supply at 108.60.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign
exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when
assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world,
it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex
currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar
(the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.