Will Google Buy Fossil Next???

Fossil Group, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its principal products include men’s and women’s fashion watches and jewelry, smartwatches, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses.

Although Fossil sales other things beside watches, their bread and butter and what they are known for are their watches.  However, watches are a tough business these days in the era of smartwatches.

Thus, Fossil has been expanding its smartwatches and wearable portfolio.  This holiday season, Fossil is selling their most advanced hybrid smartwatch, featuring text messages, alerts, caller ID, heart rate and activity tracking and a two-week battery life, but the smartwatch market continues to be dominated by Apple.

Image result for Hybrid HR is Fossil Group's most advanced hybrid smartwatch technology

Fossil reported earnings this past week.  The stock tanked after a surprise quarterly loss and said its sales fell 11%. Fossil said it lost $26 million, or 51 cents a share, in the third quarter, versus earnings of $5 million, or 10 cents a share, in the third quarter of 2018. Sales also declined to $539.5 million from $609 million.

Among the challenges that Chief Executive Kosta Kartsotis outlined on the earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript: a tough consumer environment, difficult sales trends at wholesale channels in developed markets, and lack of interest in traditional watches. “Based on these factors, we’ve lowered our sales expectations for Q4,” he said. “[G]iven the trends we saw in the third quarter, we think it’s prudent to plan our sales number assuming these trends don’t change near term.

Source

Earlier this year, Fossil announced that they were sell technology related to its high-end watches to Google. Google paid $40 million to Fossil in exchange for intellectual property needed to make the watches.

Fitbit was the pioneer in fitness trackers and was doing well, that until the smartwatches were also able to track fitness activities.  And at the point this was the beginning of the end for Fitbit. And after years of struggling and trying to remain relevant, they finally waved the white flag and sold to Google. Google was seen as a potential suitor for Fitbit prior to the deal announcement, as the two companies struck a partnership last year and have vested interests in the health space.

So why would Google buy Fossil.  Googles mission for its Wear OS is to create “a diverse set of devices” for their smartwatch platform.  Fossil owns and licenses 14 brands, including popular names like Kate Spade, Michael Kors, Armani, DKNY, and Diesel. Each of these brands already have their own Wear OS watch in its own signature style.  Thus, buying Fossil would be in alignment with Googles mission for Wear OS.

If Google is going to buy Fossil, the chart suggest, to wait for price to hit the monthly demand at $5, which would represent a 44% discount from the current price.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Rental Price Growth Gets Cut in Half From A Year Ago

Rental prices have seen aggressive growth over the past five years, but the gas tank may finally be getting low with prices over the past year growing half as much as recent years.

Raising Rents as an Investment Strategy May Get Difficult

A lot of this is market dependent and growth could certainly kick up again, but the rates have been steadily strong prior to this year so it’s worth keeping an eye on this data going forward and adjusting strategy if needed.

Nationwide Rate

As a whole rental prices increased 1.4% year over year, according to apartmentlist.com data, while the month over month change for October was 0.1%.

Picking Growing Markets Is Important

Many real estate investors in recent years, especially those doing large multifamily deals have used a strategy of acquiring under performing properties, sprucing them up and raising rents as units are turned over.

Then, with the cap rate higher due to the increased rents they can refinance out of an original loan and pull a good chunk of equity or just sell outright for a profit.

It is a solid strategy, but we can’t just blindly assume higher rents will be supported indefinitely.  Capital improvements will help attract higher rents, but in the end the market dictates the ultimate cap regardless of how nice a place is.

This is why it is imperative to pick strong growing markets.  That doesn’t just mean in rental prices, it means a growing population with increasing job opportunities.

That will help provide the market growth needed, but will also hold up the best if we hit a period of stagnation in the future.

Growing vs. Shrinking

Here is a glimpse at some states with the best and worst year over year growth.

  • Arizona: 3.5% growth
  • North Dakota: 2.9% growth
  • North Carolina: 2.7% growth
  • Nevada: 2.6% growth
  • Delaware: 2.4% growth

Rental prices falling:

  • West Virginia: -0.8% growth
  • Louisiana: -0.6% growth
  • Alaska: -0.3% growth
No Red Flags, but Pay Mind

As you can see there are some leaders and some laggards of the 1.4% national average.

The good news is we still have growth in rental prices, the bad news is growth has slowed a considerable amount over the past year.

Again, it is data worth watching, especially for those with the business model of aggressively raising rents on new projects as growth projections may not keep pace compared to recent years.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

There are many expenses involved when selling real estate taxes is one of the biggest, especially if you have to pay capital gains.

However, if you know the tax rules then the amount of taxes you pay (if any) can be drastically reduced.  Let’s cover a few ways to reduce that tax burden.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

1.) Short-term vs Long-term capital gains

Properties that are held for more than a year are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate.  This is noteworthy because that tax rate is 0% up to $39,475 for a single filer.  Then it jumps to 15% and holds there all the way up to $434,000.

If you buy and sell a property within one year then it’s taxed as short-term gains and you pay the ordinary income tax rates which start off at 10% up to $9,700 and progresses to 12% up to $39,475 before jumping to 15% and so on and so forth with 37% being the top tax rate.

2.) Increase Your Cost Basis

The price you pay for a property is your cost basis in the eyes of the IRS.  Meaning if you spent 150K to acquire a property and sold it for 200K then you have a 50k taxable gain.

If you completed capital improvements on the property those costs can be added to your costs basis though.  Be sure to keep those receipts so you can tack on that 8K cost for a new roof and reduce the tax burden.

3.) Do a 1031-Exchange

Many investors have heard of this one and it gives you the ability to not pay capital gains (or technically postpone them) on the sale of a property by rolling the money into another property.

It’s deemed a “like-kind” exchange meaning you sell an investment property to buy another investment property that is used similarly.

There is a 45 day window to identify properties to the IRS that you plan to buy and then you must close on one of them within 180 days to avoid triggering the capital gains tax.

Plenty of other rules and methods…

Those are just three ways to alleviate the tax burden, there are many other options out there such as investing from a self-directed IRA and so on.  This is why it’s important to have a solid account knowledgeable in real estate investing.

Be sure to have them work you through the all the options and verify the examples I have given above as I’m an investor, not an accountant.

Having to pay some taxes is a good problem to have.  It means you are doing profitable deals and are buying right.  Always use the property calculator to ensure you buy right!

STEEM is today the 7th best performing crypto…

…out of the top 100.

Yesterday and specially today we are finally seeing a good move upwards on the STEEM price action and also on other “traditional” altcoins as MONERO, SIACOIN and NEM that were stagnant lately.

Despite we are still far below the 50 Days Moving Average (50DMA) it is really a good signal.

The 50DMA is one of the main tools/indicators used by the traders. STEEM will need to break that line for a few days in order to reaffirm a consolidation state and a initial indication of a possible Reversal.

Typically people used to trade around this line, because a breakout upwards very often indicates a Bullish Scenario while downwards is, of course Bearish, however we have to be very careful here because there are many traps already “programmed ” around the breakout.

So, in order to consider STEEM out of “Bears Jaws” we have to break that line and stay around or above for a 3 or 4 days more.

I’m not trading STEEM at all but buying small quantities these days however I am crossing fingers to see this scenario occurring soon.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.


BITCOIN: WXY Double Combo possible terminations zones

Long time since I posted my last post about BITCOIN , I think last time was on August 24th and I talked about the evolution of a complex WXY Double Combo correction.

Answering to a request of @beiker, I am going to show you what I think can be the possible scenario currently on-going.

The Y leg was in doubt that time, we were either thinking a possible triangular shape or a Flat configuration in order to end the wave II of BITCOIN.

However, it seems that the most likely, in my opinion, is a finalization of the correction by a FLAT configuration for the “Y” leg:

In my opinion, currently we have 2 possible termination areas probabilistically speaking:

  • The area around the 100% of the FIBO length of the wave “W”, corresponding to 7400 USD
  • The area around 5500 USD which is around the 127% of the FIBO length of wave W

Of course, the volume is so small that I would no enter in any LONG position till a clear increase of this variable will become a fact.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 9/29/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

If you have done a couple large renovation projects then you know what I’m talking about.   When estimating rehab costs – always add a buffer on top of your total number.

Here’s Why You Always Add a Buffer to Your Reno Budget

This isn’t about how good an investor is at estimating the costs of repairs and replacements.   Most of us can get good at that with some experience.

This is about the stuff that you generally can’t foresee. The stuff that just pops up, and trust me there will be things that pop-up.  Especially if you are working with properties that are much older.  In fact, the older the property the more likely you will have “surprises.”

Real Life Examples

I’m going to keep it simple and give you a “cheapie” I’ve personally experienced so not to scare you off.  Just know, the surprises can range much higher is cost.

This is one of the reasons I stress performing as much due diligence on a property as you can before purchasing.

There are many “surprises” that can be avoided – then there are some that are just part of doing business.

My latest example fits into that category.

Main Water Valves and Sleeves

We are finishing up a major renovation on a property that was built in 1901.  However, along the way we got caught with a few surprises.  One of which had to do with the main water shutoff and the sleeve pipe that runs to the water department’s main valve.

Long story short is the sleeve had become so cockeyed that it was not possible to access the valve to turn it back on.  Considering you need water in a home this was a bit of a must fix.

The real question was – is the sleeve bad or the valve too.   Either way we needed to have a qualified operator come in a do his thing to repair.

After widening the opening to the exterior piping/valve and doing a little digging out the earth he was able to access the sleeve to replace and test the valve.  

Good news – valve was fine.  Bad news – sleeve needed to be replaced.  $1200 later all is good an we can got water turned on.

Unexpected cost, yes, but at only $1200 feelt like a win.  Here’s the things though.  What happens when you have 4 or 5 items come up that cost that?

Since this property was so old that is exactly what happened because things needed to be up to code.  Replacing the side door entrance became a $1500 costs instead of $300 because of all the layers of siding that had been slapped on over the decades.  The flashing had been bumped out so far it was a mess and we basically needed to re-frame it.

These examples are the cheap ones.  I have heard plenty of stories from other investors that got hit with $5-10K “surprises.”

Add a Reno Budget Buffer

This is why on the majority of big rehab projects I always slap an extra $10K on my total expected budget.

If the numbers still work with that then I know in the end I should come out in decent shape and better yet, if the “surprises” are limited or not existent than the deal becomes even more profitable.

Always be working your numbers and buying right!

To get the full guide on how I buy right check out the videos or the book.  Remember to use the property calculator when analyzing deals!

STEEM: we should have hit the bottom already…

yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.

For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:

During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI

Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:

…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:

The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….

… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:

We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:

The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…

If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…

…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

BITCOIN: Double combo Correction (WXY)

Back form holidays but still not working since we are on the weekend but, finally I have time to analyze the Daily BITCOIN chart in a more accurate manner. I have redone my EW-count and I think I found an structure that will fit with the current situation.

The structure is a Bouble Combo Correction (WXY) which is composed by the combination of three main Legs:

W Leg: Can be any Zig-zag or Flat correction

X Leg: Can be any Zig-zag, Flat , triangle or combo as well

Y Leg: Can be a Zig-zag, Flat or a Triangle

Only one triangle is allowed and it can be formed either on X or in Y but not in both. If it was the case that two triangles were formed at X and Y, the pattern would be different (Double Zig-Zag) with different results, so since the X leg is a ZIG-ZAG, a triangle may be formed on the Y Leg…or not :-)..

So, in my opinion there are two main scenarios in order to end the correction:

  • Y leg ending in a pure Flat Correction: Level of price would be similar or slightly below “W” , i.e. around 9000 USD as the main known support
  • Y leg is a triangle which will push the price lower, in search of the inclined blue line, i.e. 7600 USD

Looks like September is going to be an excellent month for the whole Crypto Market.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Intermarket Relative Strength Analysis Report For The Week Starting 8/11/19

Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.

The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world.  Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars.  Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.

Bitcoin

30 Yr Bond

Copper

Euro Dollar

Gold

Oil

Soybeans

S&P 500

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.