Perhaps you saw on yesterday when I posted on Twitter:
It was always the idea to blog about Bitcoin today, but Bitcoin was too fast for me:
While that movement has already begun, I’m going to write about it anyway, I guess I’ll just have to type faster than usual…
I am expecting moves in the $1000 (or greater) region by tomorrow.
BTC has been in a (somewhat messy) bullish converging triangle for roughly the last 10 days. The dominant BTC movement at the moment is a rise, and so this “sideways phase” is probably coming to an end.
Thanks to an “over-hyped” phase, followed by an “over-corrected” phase, this triangle is somewhat difficult to spot – fortunately you have me to spot it for you.
The rest is rather simple, as I said earlier, I expect a large price movement. This is to be expected after a period of sideways movement – especially when a converging triangle is in play.
I believe this will either be in the form of a direct price rise, or as a dip down to $10500, followed by a large price rise. The upwards break out of the triangle is an argument in favour of the former scenario: it’s a bullish breakout which will probably run to $12850 and possibly beyond that. The median price line (which is over three months old) is at $12850, so that would be a good place to stop, but momentum may carry it through to the next diagonal Fib at $13700 – or even higher if “over-hype” kicks in again.
The other scenario is that BTC first dips to support and then climbs. That support is the bottom of the diagonal Fib levels – the 0.0 Level – and is defined by the 10 June dip as well as by the over-correction dip of a week ago (which you may recall me calling exactly right – based on these same Fib levels). In support of another dip is the fact that volume has been decreasing over the last five days, though I don’t consider this to be as important as it would appear. I assess that volume also became “over-hyped” at the time of the $13800 price spike in late June and has taken a while to normalise after that. Volume also continues to far exceed the levels of the 2017 bull run, so I think a dip is the more unlikely scenario.
If BTC does dip then the support should catch it at about $10500 before slingshotting it back up towards $12850 and beyond.
I allocate the following probabilities to future scenarios:
- BTC rises to $12850 and above directly – 45%
- BTC dips to $10500 and then rises – 30%
- BTC continues sideways – 10%
- Something else – 15%
That’s all for now, let be hit the “Publish” button before everything changes or becomes outdated!
Yours in crypto
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