Jamie Dimon And I Were Both Wrong On The 10 Yr Note Yield

Eight months ago, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said that the likelihood of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5 percent was “a higher probability than most people think.” Presumably, that was based on solid economic growth and further interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

But it’s nevertheless noteworthy to see him backtrack now that 10-year yields have dropped to 2.5 percent and a much-watched portion of the curve has inverted for the first time since before the last recession. From his letter:

“10-year bond spreads have been suppressed in some way by the

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