Anyone who follows Litecoin knows two things. One of which is that the halving is happening in roughly 26 days. At that point each mined block will be worth 12.5 coins rather than 25.
Second is the fact that litecoin had a nice bull run prior to BTC and much of that is assumed to come from the speculation of price running up into the halving.
Pausing to Pick up Steam or Already Passed the Peak?
There are a dozen ways to skin a cat as they say. So when you look at the prior litecoin halving you will see stats that show a 400% percent run up into the halving, you will also see data that points out the top of that run was about 7 weeks prior to the actual event.
So the question is if history will repeat itself. With the halving just under 4 weeks away and LTC topping out at 147 roughly 3 weeks ago the ingredients are there for a repeat of history.
We are not in a vacuum and apples aren’t oranges
The market now compared to 2015 (the last halving) is very different. LTC wasn’t on exchanges like coin base and many others back then. The market was very crypto fan centric then as opposed to having some average joe and institutional influence now.
I won’t dare use the term “this time it’s different” – famous last words of many.
However, I will recognize the different environment and act accordingly.
What is the chart saying?
In the end the price chart is old reliable for me. It allows me to figure out probabilities and enter appropriate risk-reward scenarios.
Looking at the daily chart…
I see price consolidating after breaking down from the ascending channel formed in the 2 month bull run.
They keys is price tested and held that 108 area support after breaking the channel. Looking at the daily chart the conclusion is a coin flip in my opinion.
Price could test 108 or even push lower considering it made a lower high after bouncing off support. It could also push higher after digesting that large two month run in anticipation of the halving.
Either way, no clear edge in my opinion. Advantage = neither direction.
However, let’s see what the weekly chart gives us, how does that price action look?
They weekly view makes me feel a bit bullish. You can see after the run up price made an orderly pullback to that key 108 area and held it while letting the 10 period moving average catch up.
I really like that price is not extended on the weekly anymore relative to the 10 period as that average has acted as a good guide for when not to chase price and as possible entry point on a pullback in a bull run.
Basically as long at price is above 108 I’m long. If we close below there then price seeing 100 would not be a surprise.
As for the upside, well that high at 147 would be the target if we see a run into the halving.
To trade or not to trade
From a pure risk-reward profile, if I were to add a new long here at 120 with anticipation of a run to the high then that would offer me a just over a 2 to 1 risk-reward on my money.
Not the greatest ratio but above my minimum threshold of 2 to 1 or better.
Either way we should get some kind of move soon as price has been consolidating a bit.
I’d of preferred to see price tick up over the last couple days with BTC pushing, but we don’t always get what we want.
I’m holding my long-term bag for now along with the handful of coins I added a few days back.
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