BTC analysis – 26 August

Until now I have been analysing the BTC movements from late June to date along these lines:

(Taken from this 5 August post):

From https://old.trybe.one/archives/btc-beginning-of-the-week-analysis/

But the price movements of the last few days are indicating that a channel (or possible flag) may not be the correct way to view BTC at the moment.

Instead, BTC now looks to be limited by the rising base of a converging triangle, as opposed to the descending base of a channel:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Scenarios:

The triangle itself is neither inherently bullish nor bearish, so in isolation it tells us nothing about the direction of future price movements. What it does do is give us a time: soon. Price is already in the breakout zone of the triangle, and should breakout any time between now and mid-September.

Previously I was of the opinion that the channel was probably part of a larger bull flag pattern.

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:

Since these two patterns predict the same bullish outcome, this doesn’t fundamentally change my medium-term outlook. This may make a difference to those trading the pattern, but as my blogging is generally geared towards investors, I consider that to be beyond the scope of this post. If you are a trader, then take a look at the posts or videos of an analyst such as Working2005 who regularly discusses crypto trading.

For my part I am not ready to see this “2019 bull run” continue yet. As I discussed in my recent “Crypto Market Cycles” series, I am still expecting a drop before we have another rise. This is somewhat contrary to what a bull pennant may indicate, but I have my reasons for saying so.

Volume is declining slowly but steadily, which puts BTC at risk of a sudden drop. Such a drop would tie in nicely with the information I discussed in “Crypto Market Cycles”, where I showed BTC to be trading at a higher price than what we would expect for a low-hype market:

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/crypto-market-cycles-part-2/

I addition to this, I still believe that the current price movement (of the last couple of months) strongly resembles those of 2017:

From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/

…meaning that a strong and sudden dip could well occur soon. I am expecting such a dip. It is only after such a dip that I expect prices to climb again – as predicted by a bull pennant. This won’t necessarily be a “bull run” per se – just the following of the general BTC base trendline further upwards.

The bull run has yet to come…

Yours in crypto
Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
~ Bit Brain

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About the author: Bit Brain
A walking crypto encyclopedia. Honest, Realistic, Opinionated. Futurist, Autodidact, Polymath.

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