BTC analysis – 26 August

Until now I have been analysing the BTC movements from late June to date along these lines:

(Taken from this 5 August post):


But the price movements of the last few days are indicating that a channel (or possible flag) may not be the correct way to view BTC at the moment.

Instead, BTC now looks to be limited by the rising base of a converging triangle, as opposed to the descending base of a channel:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView


The triangle itself is neither inherently bullish nor bearish, so in isolation it tells us nothing about the direction of future price movements. What it does do is give us a time: soon. Price is already in the breakout zone of the triangle, and should breakout any time between now and mid-September.

Previously I was of the opinion that the channel was probably part of a larger bull flag pattern.


But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:

Since these two patterns predict the same bullish outcome, this doesn’t fundamentally change my medium-term outlook. This may make a difference to those trading the pattern, but as my blogging is generally geared towards investors, I consider that to be beyond the scope of this post. If you are a trader, then take a look at the posts or videos of an analyst such as Working2005 who regularly discusses crypto trading.

For my part I am not ready to see this “2019 bull run” continue yet. As I discussed in my recent “Crypto Market Cycles” series, I am still expecting a drop before we have another rise. This is somewhat contrary to what a bull pennant may indicate, but I have my reasons for saying so.

Volume is declining slowly but steadily, which puts BTC at risk of a sudden drop. Such a drop would tie in nicely with the information I discussed in “Crypto Market Cycles”, where I showed BTC to be trading at a higher price than what we would expect for a low-hype market:


I addition to this, I still believe that the current price movement (of the last couple of months) strongly resembles those of 2017:


…meaning that a strong and sudden dip could well occur soon. I am expecting such a dip. It is only after such a dip that I expect prices to climb again – as predicted by a bull pennant. This won’t necessarily be a “bull run” per se – just the following of the general BTC base trendline further upwards.

The bull run has yet to come…

Yours in crypto
Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
~ Bit Brain

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About the author: Bit Brain
A walking crypto encyclopedia. Honest, Realistic, Opinionated. Futurist, Autodidact, Polymath.

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