Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200 – Part 3

Beyond Meat priced its initial public offering at $25 and skyrocket 800% in less than four months. Beyond Meat, a maker of plant-based meat controls about 10% of the plant based meat market.  And because they have achieved “first to market” they are the new IT THING on Wall Street.  But there valuation is beyond ridiculous.   Their valuation is higher than roughly 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 index and their “first to market” competitive advantage expired.

Kellogg (K) introduced “Incogmeato” and their plant-based burger patties, Chik’n tenders, and Chik’n nuggets which go on sale in early 2020.  Hormel Foods announced its plant-based meat substitute called “Happy Little Plants” is available at select retailers.  The Impossible Foods launched the Impossible Burger through Burger King in August.  Kroger said they will sell a new line of branded plant-based burgers, other meatless products like dips, pasta sauces and cookie dough in the coming months under their Simple Truth Plant Based label.

Beyond Meat Inc. was initiated at sell with a $120 price target at CFRA, with analyst Arun Sundaram saying the plant-based meat company will be overtaken by bigger players entering the space.

“We think larger packaged food companies will end up as the category leaders in the space given their vast global footprint and embedded relationships throughout the supply chain,” Sundaram wrote in a note. “Yet we expect Beyond Meat to be the greatest disrupter in this space since no public packaged food peer comes close to Beyond Meat in terms of research and development spend as a percentage of sales.”

Sundaram notes that “many think Impossible Foods’ Impossible Burger tastes better than the Beyond Burger.”

Source

The call is a bit late and should have been made when the chart was suggesting that price was going lower.

But now we are just $10 from that $100 level I talked about one month ago.

The $100 level represents price at a discount.  But, don’t listen to me, just pay attention to what the Smart Money is doing.

Heading into the third quarter of 2019, a total of 16 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 16 from one quarter earlier.

With a general bullishness amongst the heavyweights, some big names have jumped into Beyond Meat, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND) headfirst. Citadel Investment Group, managed by Ken Griffin, created the most valuable call position in Beyond Meat, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND). Citadel Investment Group had $117.8 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. OZ Management also initiated a $11.9 million position during the quarter. The other funds with brand new BYND positions are Brad Farber’s Atika Capital, Robert Henry Lynch’s Aristeia Capital, and Anthony Bozza’s Lakewood Capital Management.

Source

I personally envision the $100 level will be an accumulation level for the Smart Money.  I think price will hang out near the $100 level for a bit, until the Smart Money is able to fill all their buy orders and then I think price will move higher.

Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200

Prediction…Beyond Meat Goes Down To $100 First Before Up To $200 – Part 2

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Intuitive Surgical Strikes Again

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets da Vinci surgical systems, and related instruments and accessories. Its da Vinci Surgical System transforms the surgeon’s natural hand movements outside the body into corresponding micro-movements inside the patient’s body.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. has been at the forefront of robot-assisted surgery for more than two decades. The beauty of their products is they allow quicker recovery times for patients undergoing surgery through minimally-invasive surgery which lower the bill for all parties involved.

Traditional open surgery involves a large cut so the surgeon can see the part of the bodying being worked on.  Minimally invasive surgery involves small cuts and accessories like small tools, cameras, and lights that fit through several tiny cuts in your skin.  And minimally invasive surgeries done by robotic technology allows for more precise control through an operative field in 3-D resulting in a speedier recovery spent at home vs. in the hospital. 

Robotic surgery is steadily carving its niche across a wide array of surgical fields within MedTech. In neurosurgery, image-guided robots enable the examination of brain lesions without resulting in any major damage to adjacent tissues.   In orthopedics, robotic surgery helps shape the femur to precisely fit prosthetic hip-joint replacements. Currently, an increasing number of orthopedic surgeons are opting for robot-assisted surgery for knee, hip and spine.  Robot-assisted surgery has also been finding its application in urology, especially in prostatectomy. Complex gynecological surgeries have also been witnessing the increasing adoption of robotics, using the Da Vinci Surgical System.

Source

It’s no wonder that over
the last five years, Intuitive Surgical earnings per share have grown 21% per
year, which has translated for their stock price increasing 28% per year during
that same time frame.  And this past
week, their earning results continue to impress.

Intuitive Surgical
reported earnings per share of $3.43 a share in the third quarter, beating
expectations of $2.96.  Revenue also
topped expectations at $1,128 million, compared to $921 million in the third
quarter of 2018.

The company credited the earnings beat due to increased U.S. general surgery and worldwide urologic procedures utilizing their da Vinci robot.

Image result for da vinci robot

275 da Vinci robot were shipped in the quarter, an increase of 19% vs. the year-earlier period.  There are now there were 5,406 installed da Vinci systems worldwide and this number will only increase as the cost of health care continues to rise.

Source

Speaking of rising, where is the stock heading next, let go to the charts to find out? Right now the playing field is between the weekly demand at $450 and the weekly supply at $580.

Thus, the chart suggests to go short if price makes it up to the daily supply at $580.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Warren Buffett is Stock Piling Cash – This chart may be why

The Oracle of Omaha has been building a warchest of cash and generally when that happens it is because he’s betting on a discount buying opportunity.

Whether that comes to fruition and we see a drop in stocks in the next year or so is anyone’s guess. However, it seems the chart in this post is an indicator Buffett pays attention too.

Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio

The Wilshire is considered the benchmark index to measure all U.S. equities. After all it has 6,700 stocks in it, thus we can be comfortable that it is a solid representation of the broader market.

Well apparently Buffett, and others, use the index against nominal quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) to determine valuation of the market.

That is what the chart is showing and as you can see based on that measure the market is valued high – as high as it was in 2008 with valuation climbing for nearly 10 straight years.

Does this guarantee stocks will go lower? – Nope. I learned long ago that nothing has to happen, we can always get more overvalued.

It does mean there is alot of downside risk right now for what is likely limited upside, which is usually not the risk profile you want for an investment.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 51

Price action remained bearish though some high-profile Alts showed signs of life. BTC metrics (aside from short-term price) remained bullish. Binance continued to provide a model of revenue earning by providing wanted services. EOS saw the publishing of a number of meaningful governance proposals amongst other developments. Craig Wright and Tone Vays conducted another round of name-calling and circus clown performances – another week in crypto. Don’t be fooled by bearish sentiment – lots going on, progress throughout the ecosystem – patience and solid investment decisions will, in time, be rewarded.


Picks of the Week

This rebuttal of Ripple’s ‘distance’ from XRP. Colin’s deep dive into recent EOS governance proposals is also very informative.


Twitter

Despite recent bearish price action has this been an accelerated run-up for BTC?:
https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1183041162518683649

BTC defined:
https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1184627170234294272

Employment numbers for the larger crypto companies:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1182957621952663554

Libra sheds more members…scan down to Nick Sabo comments…:
https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1182775728431087623

A brief analysis of IEO performance:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1184454371305775104

Addressing exchange EOS voting:
https://twitter.com/GenerEOSAus/status/1183949268903612416

The crypto circus:
https://twitter.com/voice0fcrypto/status/1184532883576410123

EOS 1.8 update – lots of potential going forward:
https://twitter.com/Jesta187/status/1184687423487270913

Binance continues to iterate and develop at breakneck speed:
https://twitter.com/binance/status/1184671792780066818


Articles

Libra…cough…buy Bitcoin:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/42979/ebay-and-stripe-drop-out-of-facebooks-libra

Telegram…cough…buy Bitcoin:
https://btcmanager.com/sec-telegram-gram-cryptocurrency/?q=/sec-telegram-gram-cryptocurrency/&q=/sec-telegram-gram-cryptocurrency/

Big BTC projects continue to attract investment:
https://fortune.com/2019/10/15/what-is-bitcoin-mining-layer1-peter-thiel-crypto-investment/

The humble Satoshi explained (recommended):
https://thenextweb.com/hardforkbasics/2019/10/16/understanding-bitcoins-smallest-unit-the-satoshi/

EOS governance proposal by Dan Larimer (recommended):
https://medium.com/@bytemaster/blockchain-governance-proposal-470478e42686

EOS New York on governance and incentives (recommended):
https://medium.com/eos-new-york/uniting-stake-holder-incentives-to-maximize-decentralization-performance-530af1560401


Podcasts

A brief explanation of the key principles of Libertarianism:

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-key-concepts-11-what-is-libertarianism/id1441492450?i=1000452829550


A succinct rejection of Ripple’s claims of separation between it and XRP / Timestamp – 27.54 (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/weekly-news-roundup-10-11-deals-bitwise-etf-ruling/id1480586463?i=1000453135310


YouTube

A wide-ranging and reasoned discussion of key crypto trends and issues between the Crypto Lark and Ivan on Tech:​


Light-hearted presentation aside, this is a useful round-up of recent positive metrics for BTC:


For when a newbie asks you to explain blockchain (recommended):


Colin decrypts the new EOS governance proposal – very thorough (highly recommended):


Colin on IRS tax ruling:


Infographics

The rate of growth of 1000 BTC addresses (purple line) now matches the early growth in Bitcoin’s network…:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1182754062107852802/photo/1


EOS token values compared:

https://twitter.com/Douglas_Horn/status/1184615387243020290/photo/1


Website / Utility

If you are interested in tracking the make-up of BTC holdings:

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html


A whale of a week. Remember price is only one of many metrics with which to evaluate the cryptosphere. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too??? – Part 2

WD-40 which stands for “water displacing” was first used by the military in the ’50s to clean up Atlas missile parts. Throughout the years, people have found over 2000 uses for WD-40. Growing up in the projects of NYC, I have seen my fair share of roaches, but I just found out I in addition to using Raid Roach spray, I could of used WD-40 for instant kills as well.

Three months ago, I wrote a post about WD-40,

Did You Go Out And Buy WD-40 Too???

We all know it, have seen it, probably even take it for granted. I’m talking about WD-40. It has infinite uses and is the real utility knife. Just to get you acquainted again with WD-40, here are just 10 of the the 2000 uses of WD-40.

Despite the bump up in price this week, the levels in play and to monitor are the $150 level on the downside and the $188 level on the upside.

I like to think I’m creative with my titles, so the title three months ago was a play on words. Everyone should have WD-40 in the cabinet. However, WD-40 wasn’t a buy three months ago simply put, because the upper limit was $190, the reward wasn’t worth the risk. But thinking about this further, I guess it’s all relative and depends on what type of investor / trader you are. Anyway lets get back to WD-40.

WD-40 is a straight cash money making machine.  The company has grown their dividends on a year basis that’s equivalent to 9% over the last 10 years.  WD-40 has been growing its earnings per share at 13% each year over the past 5 years.  It’s no wonder institutional investors hold almost 90% of the stock. 

WD-40 reported earnings this past week. Although they beat earnings expectations, their outlook was below expectations and on the news the stock price fell the next trading day, but came storming back closing $7 up on the day. However, the fact that price breached a major resistance/support line, I think the risk is to the downside now.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

There are many expenses involved when selling real estate taxes is one of the biggest, especially if you have to pay capital gains.

However, if you know the tax rules then the amount of taxes you pay (if any) can be drastically reduced.  Let’s cover a few ways to reduce that tax burden.

Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Real Estate, Legally!

1.) Short-term vs Long-term capital gains

Properties that are held for more than a year are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate.  This is noteworthy because that tax rate is 0% up to $39,475 for a single filer.  Then it jumps to 15% and holds there all the way up to $434,000.

If you buy and sell a property within one year then it’s taxed as short-term gains and you pay the ordinary income tax rates which start off at 10% up to $9,700 and progresses to 12% up to $39,475 before jumping to 15% and so on and so forth with 37% being the top tax rate.

2.) Increase Your Cost Basis

The price you pay for a property is your cost basis in the eyes of the IRS.  Meaning if you spent 150K to acquire a property and sold it for 200K then you have a 50k taxable gain.

If you completed capital improvements on the property those costs can be added to your costs basis though.  Be sure to keep those receipts so you can tack on that 8K cost for a new roof and reduce the tax burden.

3.) Do a 1031-Exchange

Many investors have heard of this one and it gives you the ability to not pay capital gains (or technically postpone them) on the sale of a property by rolling the money into another property.

It’s deemed a “like-kind” exchange meaning you sell an investment property to buy another investment property that is used similarly.

There is a 45 day window to identify properties to the IRS that you plan to buy and then you must close on one of them within 180 days to avoid triggering the capital gains tax.

Plenty of other rules and methods…

Those are just three ways to alleviate the tax burden, there are many other options out there such as investing from a self-directed IRA and so on.  This is why it’s important to have a solid account knowledgeable in real estate investing.

Be sure to have them work you through the all the options and verify the examples I have given above as I’m an investor, not an accountant.

Having to pay some taxes is a good problem to have.  It means you are doing profitable deals and are buying right.  Always use the property calculator to ensure you buy right!

QLC technical analysis

QLC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price has started to fall once reached the resistance located at 0.00000235, the current candle has found demand in the support located at 0.00000190, indicated in the graph by the first horizontal red color, however, the price should fall to the next zone of demand located at 0.00000114, if the price is able to close the above mentioned resistance forcefully, the price could have a larger bullish momentum that should reach our first target located within the price range of 0.00000374 – 0.00000461.

QLC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see that the price has formed two HL after the double floor formed on the diagonal support indicated on the chart by the diagonal dark blue, this is a good bullish signal, however, as long as the price does not manage to overcome the resistance located at 0.00000235 indicated in the chart above by the horizontal black color, the price should continue to fall towards the support diagonally forming a reversal pattern of SHS that would strengthen the strength of the bears inclining the price to the area of demand located at 0.00000114, even to the lower diagonal support that I have indicated in the chart above by a yellow circle, in the chart I have also drawn the possible trajectory that could still follow the price before breaking the resistance of this accumulation range.

In conclusion, QLC is in a moment of high uncertainty, because the follow up of the bullish momentum is respecting the 0.00000190 and this suggests that there could be a continuation bullish, however, the price must also make a next touch diagonally and this approach would increase the odds of a larger reversal, therefore, I recommend to follow closely the action of the price in 1D and always place stop loss in your trades to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

The ETF, MSCI Is A Longer Term Sell

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its latest projections for the world economy show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a July forecast.  The main culprit was the US-China trade war which is expected to cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the Great Recession. 

Although, the US and China reached a phase I trade deal last week, the IMF stated if deal isn’t reached in the near future, the slowdown in the world economy could worsen, case in point….China.

China’s growth outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2020 is expected to weaken further because of obstacles including drag from the ongoing trade war with the United States, analysts said.

The next mile marker in China’s economic slowdown will come on Friday, when the country reports third quarter growth. Analysts expect it to slow to 6.1 per cent from the 6.2 per cent rate seen in the second quarter, which was the lowest growth rate since the government started publishing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics in the first quarter of 1992.

But analysts are rapidly revising down their expectations for 2020 below the lower end of this year’s growth range. Most forecasts put next year’s growth between 5.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent, with the International Monetary Fund’s just-released projection at 5.8 per cent.

Source

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands for Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and is an index used to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets.   The MSCI ETF that tracks this index is heavily exposed to China.  So where is price of the MSCI ETF headed, lets go to the charts?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly demand is at $120.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is still up, but momentum appears to be stalling.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests once the support breaks, to look for shorts to the down side with a first target at the weekly demand at $172.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

What Stock Sectors are the Smart (Big) Money Investing In?

There is a saying to follow the smart money. With the performance of hedge funds over the past decade relative to the S&P 500 some may think that isn’t the smart money.

I’m smart enough to know they are still worth paying attention to because the sheer size of the positions they put on impact individual stocks and sectors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey

This survey gives us insight into what hedge fund managers are investing in, the latest survey showed money moving toward utilities, consumer staples and healthcare and out of energy and materials.

In addition to the movement within stock sectors there was an increase in bond holdings and a reduction in stock holdings.

This is what I recall from my view of the report which is proprietary/subscriber based.

VIA technical analysis

VIA seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candle structure is forming a rounded floor which is likely to push the price towards a much larger bullish movement, the penultimate candle managed to close above the consolidation, followed by a doji candle, the current candle is bullish, however, with little volume, the pressure of sale is maintained, we can observe it in the superior wick that has formed until the moment, the indicator RSI has formed us a double floor with bullish inclination, this shows us a bullish divergence that is easily visible in the graph of above, the weekly demand is located in the 0.00002050.

VIA seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the structure is forming a rounded floor, in the RSI indicator I have pointed with an oval the area where the average in relation to the period of time between December 2018 and March 2019 made a movement similar to the one that the RSI indicator is making again in relation to the current period, If the situation repeats itself we could have a major upward movement like the one that happened previously and that I have indicated by means of a yellow circle in the RSI indicator, our first gain objective is located at 0. 00007567, if we have a strong volume input, this target can be easily reached, the second gain target is located at 0.00017044.

In conclusion, VIA maintains an excellent bullish pattern after consolidating in the weekly support located at 0.00002050, if the price maintains the bullish curvature, the probabilities of reaching the first profit target are very high, otherwise, the price could fall to the weekly demand, even fall towards the second zone of demand located at 0.00001062, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and never forget to place stop loss in all your operations to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia