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The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 59

December 15, 2019 Published by

Overall, the charts look set in their bearish ways. A Christmas rally seems increasingly unlikely. Thankfully, there are plenty of other areas worth focusing on from central banks announcing plans to roll out their own versions of crypto to China’s daily expansion into blockchain. This week’s recap focuses, in particular, on the Chinese Communist Parties ‘plans’ for the cryptosphere.

Picks of the Week

This report on the current state of play of blockchain in China. This podcast wrapping up a 5 part series on the same topic and this article examining the CCP’s ’embrace of blockchain’ but evident antipathy towards Bitcoin.

Twitter

This BTC thing will never catch-on:
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950870939422720

A perspective on why BTC price lags apparent interest:
https://twitter.com/AdamPaulMoore/status/1201561011750408192

BTC halving likely to lead to a price rise?:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1201983119387217925

Over a thousand companies in Hainan province alone are in
some way engaged with blockchain:
https://twitter.com/mg0314a/status/1202150448074903553

On EOS achievements to date:
https://twitter.com/EOS_Nation/status/1203437924538298368

China’s embrace of blockchain is neither benign or destined to succeed:
https://twitter.com/aantonop/status/1203829157681094658

Peer to peer cash – why its hard to achieve ad why it matters (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/MiguelCuneta/status/1202877557370044417

Gold and yields showing remarkable divergence:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1205272294542602240

Articles

BTC is not failing:
https://medium.com/swlh/why-bitcoin-is-not-failing-39e10eef1be1

Is BTC really deflationary?:
https://medium.com/@Conner_/stop-calling-bitcoin-deflationary-84462cb90345

China ‘loves’ blockchain but ‘dislikes’ BTC – so why is that? (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/blockchain-is-the-censored-word-for

BTC halving impact will have minimal market effect:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/youngjoseph/2019/12/03/prominent-investor-says-halving-wont-have-a-big-impact-on-bitcoin-price-heres-why/#6a98620b777b

Is BTC in its ‘chasm phase’? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoins-success-in-the-future-will-depend-how-it-emerges-from-the-chasm-phase-c6b726541399

The complex reality of Altcoin tokenomics (recommended):
https://medium.com/@leo.vigna/chainlink-to-infinity-link-to-zero-the-risks-of-token-abstraction-640fbd97a9b7

A report on one of the first EOS blockchain games (recommended):
https://medium.com/crypto-sword-magic/game-economy-report-bac24c42c9e7

Excellent overview of the current state of the blockchain industry in China (leads to a link to download the report – highly recommended):
https://forkast.news/china-blockchain-report/

HEX is a clever scam but a scam nonetheless:
https://medium.com/@TooWumboToFail/under-a-hex-396847b86e57

Podcast

Deciphering China’s role in blockchain – Part 5 of 5 (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

YouTube

A good overview of possible trends for crypto 2020:

BTC’s ROI is decreasing each cycle but still impressive:

Anton Antonopoulos on EOS (highly recommended):

REX is back up and running + a little context on DAPP costs (recommended):

Colin shares his views on a wide range of crypto topics:

Infographics

Whose buying BTC (on Localbitcoins):

https://twitter.com/ProofOfSteve/status/1201411289701965829

A useful visual guide to the main forks BTC soft/hard over the years:

https://i.redd.it/1pvmr98w5x041.png

It’s been a heck of a run for equities:

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1202414250276184064/photo/1

Website / Utility

Useful website for researching DeFi projects:

https://defipulse.com/defi-list

Lots to take-in. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Taiwan Semiconductor…Another Derivative Play On Apple

December 13, 2019 Published by

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing, and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. The company manufactures masks and electronic spare parts; researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, packages, and tests color filters; and offers customer and engineering support services.

(TSM) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors.  TSM has been involved with chip design since the 1980s and today produces chips for some of the largest clients in the world. 

One such company is Apple.  TMS produces chips for Apple and gets 20% of its sales from Apple.

Two months ago Apple reportedly boosted component orders for the iPhone 11.  In particular, Apple bumped up orders for the $699 iPhone 11 and the $999 iPhone 11 Pro.  Some analysts are thinking Apple can sell up to 185 million iPhone 11s.   In addition, according to one analyst, Apple AirPods are seeing a surge of demand and could face holiday shortage.

Are you connecting the dots yet?

Apple (AAPL) iPhone chip supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) saw healthy sales growth in November thanks to strong demand for smartphone processors. Taiwan Semiconductor stock spiked to a record high on the news Thursday.

Taiwan Semi reported revenue of $3.54 billion in November. Sales rose 1.7% from the previous month and popped 9.7% year over year in local currency.

“We think this is largely due to smartphones (seasonal ramp) along with a recovery in data center chips,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mitch Steves said in a report to clients

Source

The chart suggests to look for a pull back to go long near the $52 level.

Another derivative play on Apple is Qualcomm.  Qualcomm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and markets digital communication products worldwide and the company happens to be right in the center of 5G.

Qualcomm just announced their Snapdragon 865 5G chip which is capable of processing 2 gigapixels per second while delivering speeds of up to 7.5Gbps 5G connectivity.

Apple has plans on selling four new iPhones next year that could all be compatible with ultra-fast 5G wireless networks.

The chart suggests Qualcomm will continue to move higher to at least the $100 level.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

December 13, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 66th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-rei4e-cb291b

Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode wraps up the China Blockchain Series by examining the risk-reward investment scenarios now on offer.

Despite the undeniable importance of the Chinese Communist Parties’ enthusiasm for blockchain it, in fact, offers very little long-term upside for the typical investor.

A caveat -if you happen to be a mainland Chinese investor with ties to the government – then the future is very bright indeed. For the rest – not so much. There are many hundreds of blockchain projects currently underway in China – over 100 in Hainan province alone. How many of these are likely to accrue long-term value? Very few indeed – even in the most permissive and supportive environment the majority of start-ups fail. As 2017’s ICO phase clearly demonstrated the failure rate for crypto-related endeavours is even higher than that for other tech-related projects. Add to this the immense difficulty of accessing reliable information on China-based projects. A typical western investor simply has no idea what is ‘true’ when it comes to local chains. Twitter personalities and thirdhand reports make terrible investment advisors. Finally, throw an authoritarian regime into the mix. A government that can and will do as it pleases – anointing winners and dooming all others and the futility of picking Chinese crypto winners should be readily apparent.

Nonetheless, a tangible investment opportunity does exist here but it lies with projects that benefit by comparison with state-sanctioned chains. Bitcoin is an obvious example. Over the next few years, the reality of blockchain as a tool of state control and coercion will likely serve to highlight the liberating benefits of truly decentralized systems. Wall Street may care not a whit for liberty but they certainly embrace opportunity and decentralized financial instruments fit the bill perfectly.

Another though much difficult to identify opportunity lies with chains that successfully master interoperability – allowing them to do business across borders while remaining complaint with varying legal requirements. Such projects may or may not be decentralized but facilitating access to markets should bring value to those chains that achieve this at scale. Nuls, Chainlink, Polkadot, and Quant are some of the current leaders in this area though it’s far from clear whether any of them will gain meaningful traction over the coming years.

Finally, there are potential swing trade opportunities in the short term. Tokens with reasonable liquidity such as NEO and ONT may offer substantial upside as China moves to implement blockchain more broadly. This process may temporarily lift all boats as it were. However, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that well-established chains like NEO and Ontology will be adopted. From a risk/reward perspective, a targeted exit point in under a year seems optimal. Wait too long and you could see the entire position collapse overnight. Swing trading, however, is much more suited to folks who are already experienced day traders and therefore not a viable option for most retail investors who are exceedingly likely to move the goalposts once actually in a position.

In summary – China matters. The next few years will see it take centre stage as the CCP rolls out its version of crypto. Many will declare that the Beijing model is the only viable at-scale implementation of blockchain. They will be entirely wrong but it may take years for that to become clear. Over a long enough horizon – the centralized, state-supervised model of crypto embodied by China and a soon to follow slew of authoritarian regimes will end up being a profound catalyst for the widespread adoption of decentralized chains – and here is where the true investment potential lies.

Thanks for listening.

Series Links

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 4 of 5

Can Bill Ackman Do It Again With Agilent???

December 11, 2019 Published by

Trading is nothing but a numbers game…you hope your loses are smaller and hope your winners are much larger than your loses.  Take the billionaire, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square.  The hedge fund’s returns fell 4% in 2017, dropped 13.5% in 2016 and declined 20.5% in 2015, but lets look at some of his recent winners.

A year ago, billionaire, Bill took a $1 billion size position in home improvement Lowe’s because he thought there were opportunities to improve its supply chain to serve customers better and enhance the customer experience through strategic brands and differentiated in-store experiences.  I personally thought Bill was going to take another lost, but boy was I wrong. Bill got in the stock in May of 2018 and thus far that $1 billion is now worth $1.3 billion, a nice paper profit of $300 million thus far.

But Bill’s bigger win was in Chipotle.  Back in 2016, Bill’s Pershing Square bought almost 10% of the shares.  Bill thought Chipotle had a strong brand, differentiated offering, enormous growth opportunity, and was undervalued.

The following year Chipotle hired a new CEO, Brian Niccol.  At Taco Bell, Niccol was known for food menu innovation as well as driving technological advancements to the customer ordering process.  Under Brian’s leadership, digital sales quickly grew as Brian had hoped is that more and more customers will skip other eateries and just order their food at Chipotle.  And then a year later, Brian introduced a loyalty program.

And look what the stock has done since 2016….WOW.

And Chipotle is the gift that keeps on giving as Chipotle made up of 14% of Bill’s hedge fund returns of through mid-2019.

In the most recent news, Bill bought 2.9 million shares in Agilent Technologies on Monday. Agilent provides application focused solutions to the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets worldwide.  Essentially Agilent is a lab testing equipment maker.

Billionaire investor William Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management said Monday it bought shares in testing equipment company Agilent Technologies Inc, only its second new investment this year as the fund has reported a 51% return.

Agilent Technologies’ stock price jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after Ackman’s investment was made public in a regulatory filing. Ackman’s $7 billion fund earlier in the year bought Berkshire Hathaway Inc shares.

The filing did not say whether the Agilent investment will be active or passive, and Ackman’s spokesman declined to comment. The filing showed that Pershing Square owned 2.9 million shares at the end of September and did not say how big the position is currently. At Monday’s stock price, that stake would be worth $246 million.

Source

The fact that Bill and Warren Buffett own Agilent, something must be up. I really like the monthly demand near $60, but something tells me price isn’t going to get there anytime soon.

But there is also a great level at the weekly demand at $70 to go long as well.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Brave and EOS…Going In Opposite Directions

December 9, 2019 Published by

Brave is a decentralized,
open source browser that puts the user first by making online privacy its first
priority.  Brave also claims to be twice
as fast as Chrome on desktop and eight times faster than Safari on mobile.

The man behind the Brave
browser is CEO, Brendan Eich.  Brendan
started his career at Netscape Communications Corporation in April 1995 with
the intent to put Scheme “in the browser.” In early 1998, Brendan co-founded the Mozilla
project. And his most recent initiative was creating the Basic Attention Token (BAT), a cryptocurrency
designed for use in the Brave browser when users view and share in the ad revenue.
In the ecosystem, advertisers will give publishers BATs based on the measured
attention of users. Users will also receive some BATs for participating. They
can donate them back to publishers or use them on the platform

If you don’t care for the
ads, the Brave browser has an inbuilt ad and tracker blocker. The blocker
inhibits trackers from learning more about a user for monetization purposes.
But Brave is trying to fix the internet by improving the ad model.  In the words of founders of Brave “It is a
market filled with middlemen and fraudsters, hurting users, publishers and
advertisers.”  And Brave’s mission of
fixing the internet ad model is gaining traction.

Brave Browser is experiencing robust user growth, gaining another 1.7 million active users over the last three weeks by carving out the privacy niche from Google Chrome.

Since its 1.0 launch mid-November, Brave announced that the open source browser had gained another 1.7 million monthly active users, growing by 19% across all devices. Compared to last year, the numbers are even stronger. The browser’s userbase saw a two-fold increase in monthly active users and tripled its daily active users to 3.3 million.

As of today, verified content creators on the platform increased to over 340,000. The majority of these creators publish to YouTube (229,00), followed by Twitter (37,000), business and personal website publishing (38,000), and Twitch (18,000), among others.

Source

A nice level to potentially go long on the BAT is at the daily demand at $0.14.

The EOS blockchain was developed with the aim of facilitating efficient and scalable decentralized applications (dapps). The blockchain includes an operating-system like set of services and functions that works similarly to the ethereum platform.

Despite EOS being the world’s seventh-largest blockchain by market cap, my first issues is who in the hell has a year long initial coin offering (ICO)…which raised $4.1 billion in crypto for Block.One. My initial thought was they better deliver due to all the hype.

EOS works on an ownership model whereby users own and are entitled to use resources proportional to their stake, rather than having to pay for every transaction. So, in essence, if you hold N tokens of EOS then you are entitled to N*k transactions. And herein lies the issue.

EOS network’s governance issues continue to haunt them as Weiss Ratings recently downgraded the network from B category to C-. Weiss Ratings also posted a Twitter thread explaining why they had to downgrade the project which was once hyped as “Ethereum Killer.”

Weiss Ratings in its tweet claimed that although the public sentiment was right behind the project in its hayday and the platform was known for being a fast, efficient and most important a decentralized ecosystem. However, in the past year, there has been a continuous decline in the decentralization aspect where major whales control the majority of the token flow which could be of a deep concern.

Weiss Ratings claimed that the top 100 EOS token holders who represented a meager 0.01% of the total token holders on the platform, has a whopping 68% of the voting power on the network. This means these whales can easily manipulate the network as per their will.

Source

And now EOS block producers and developers devoted to building decentralized apps (dapps) are making little or no money from contributing to the health of the ecosystem. EOS Tribe even wrote about his experience on Steemit. They cited it’s longer possible to earn funds for maintaining the blockchain without support from major EOS whales.

Thus the chart suggest EOS is headed to the monthly demand at $1.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Warren Buffett’s Holy Grail Investment Strategy

December 8, 2019 Published by

The other day, I revealed why Warren Buffett is so success.  So, if you want to emulate Buffett’s successful, just buy companies that pay dividends and buy back their stock.  Did you know financials almost make up 50% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio.  So if you really want to emulate Buffett’s success, just buy financial stocks.

Berkshire’s 8 biggest
positions in financial stocks going back to the third quarter were:

Bank of America Corp.
(BAC), $25 billion,

American Express Co.
(AXP), $19 billon,

Wells Fargo & Co.
(WFC), $18 billion,

U.S. Bancorp (USB), $6.7
billion,

JPMorgan Chase & Co.
(JPM), $6.2 billion,

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(GS), $3.6 billion,

Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. (BK), $3.4 billion,

Moody’s Corp. (MCO), $5.1
billion

The word “dividend” tends
to have this calm, soothing effect on investors because you know the company
offering dividend has a profitable and viable business model so in good times
and bad times, you can sleep better at night and dividends act like compound
interests if reinvested to grow ones portfolio exponentially.   For example, Wells Fargo and Bank of America
are set to bring in more than $1.5 billion in dividend income for Buffett over
the next year.  That $1.5 billion is almost
2% of his net worth.

Because I’m on this dividend
discovery journey, highest dividend yielding companies within Buffett’s
portfolio are the following:

Occidental Petroleum
Corporation (8.32% yield), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the
acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the
United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments:
Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. 

The Kraft Heinz Company (5.16%
forward yield) manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the
United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Its products
include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment
beverages, coffee, and other grocery products, as well as infant and nutrition
products

General Motors Company (4.30%
forward yield) designs, builds, and sells cars, trucks, crossovers, and
automobile parts worldwide. The company operates through GM North America, GM
International, GM Cruise, and GM Financial. It markets its vehicles primarily
under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Holden, Baojun, Jiefang, and Wuling
brand names

Suncor Energy Inc (4.07% forward
yield). operates as an integrated energy company. The company primarily focuses
on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada’s Athabasca oil sands;
explores, acquires, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas
in Canada and internationally; transports and refines crude oil; markets
petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada.

Wells Fargo & Company
(3.83% forward yield), a diversified financial services company, provides
retail, commercial, and corporate banking services to individuals, businesses,
and institutions. It operates through three segments: Community Banking,
Wholesale Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management.

STORE Capital Corporation
(3.50% forward yield) is an internally managed net-lease real estate investment
trust, or REIT, that is the leader in the acquisition, investment and
management of Single Tenant Operational Real Estate

United Parcel Service,
Inc (3.34% forward yield) provides letter and package delivery, specialized
transportation, logistics, and financial services. It operates through three
segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain &
Freight.

Phillips 66 (3.20%
forward yield) operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company. It
operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing
and Specialties (M&S).

Restaurant Brands International
Inc (3.05% forward yield). owns, operates, and franchises quick service
restaurants under the Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), and Popeyes (PLK)
brand names.

The PNC Financial
Services Group, Inc (3.02% forward yield). operates as a diversified financial
services company in the United States. The Retail Banking segment offers
deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance, and investment and cash management
services to consumer and small business customers through a network of branches.  The Corporate & Institutional Banking
segment provides secured and unsecured loans, letters of credit, equipment
leases, global trade services, as well as foreign exchange, derivative, etc.

The Coca-Cola Company (2.95%
forward yield)., a beverage company, manufactures and distributes various
nonalcoholic beverages worldwide. The company provides sparkling soft drinks;
water, enhanced water, and sports drinks; juice, dairy, and plant based
beverages; teas and coffees; and energy drinks.

Dividend stocks offer a number of advantages to investors, but I would say the number one reason is best said by Buffett himself.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 58

December 7, 2019 Published by

Once again this has been a great week to be engaged with crypto. While the charts offered volatility, the space itself heaved with good ideas, competing narratives, and incremental developments. This week’s crypto Twitter segment alone is a treasure trove of expertise and insightful analysis. The charts will wait.

As per usual, each item is here because it is compelling/interesting or thought-provoking in some way. Inclusion is not an endorsement. Verify don’t trust (cough..HEX).

Picks of the Week

So much to choose from – this fine-grain analysis of recent changes to Libra’s governance structure and this much-needed exposure of influencer pushed leverage trading. In addition, this wide-ranging discussion of the proposition that is BTC.

Twitter

Much needed calling-to of crypto influencers for peddling leverage trading (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/Brad_Laurie/status/1201393846443102209

Four likely long-term outcomes for BTC:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1195787745391566848

Interest in crypto passive income is on the rise:
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1200614101094785025

Some crypto memories:
https://twitter.com/pierre_crypt0/status/1201260117494243328

Unpacking Libra’s recent changes to its Articles of Association (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/Fatalmeh/status/1200733070766116864

Ethereum meaningfully decentralized?
https://twitter.com/AnselLindner/status/1201719094434828289

Fifteen of the best crypto podcasts (aside from my own of course):
https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1199126396062359553

Comparing China-based exchanges such as Huobi and OKEX with Binance (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1201823827468025858

A ‘best of’ 2019 crypto podcasts (again sadly missing my own :))
https://twitter.com/AndyPickeringNZ/status/1201969412737097728

A little context re North Korea / doing business there:
https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/1201331530523648001

Articles

A sound rebuttal of the tired ‘Bitcoin is for criminals’ narrative.
https://www.unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-is-not-for-criminals/

A wee bit of inspiration for fellow Bitcoiners (recommended):
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/bitcoins-missionaries-vs-wall-streets

Let’s face it – most crypto predictions are downright nonsense:
https://hackernoon.com/why-crypto-predictions-are-irrational-fy4ct46a8

The Ethereum network is showing strong growth across a range of metrics (recommended):
https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/03/ethereum-network-activity-defi-still-growing-when-will-eth-prices-follow/

Segwit explained:
https://www.binance.vision/blockchain/a-beginners-guide-to-segretated-witness-segwit

Energi uncovers massive ‘fake-account’ network while auditing their air-drop (recommended):
https://medium.com/energi/organized-fake-social-media-group-with-over-a-million-sockpuppets-identified-642186d075ef

A proposal for improving EOS REX:
https://medium.com/eos-argentina/notes-on-rex-7f764f42f78

Protocols and product (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/do-protocols-need-product-management-6c597d65faad

Podcast

Two industry insider’s perspectives on China’s moves to promote blockchain (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/why-china-aims-to-replace-cash-with-the-digital-yuan-ep-146/id1123922160?i=1000457234635

YouTube

Leverage trading is promoted with the expectation that you will get wrecked (highly recommended):

Bitcoin empowers you (highly recommended):

Not exactly secrets but useful information nonetheless:

Let’s talk Bitcoin (highly recommended for an overview of what’s in play with BTC):​

Colin continues to shine a much-needed spotlight on EOS (recommended):

A brief discussion of how governments fudge inflation figures (recommended):

Is HEX a scam – yes, it is (Highly recommended):

Infographics

BTC cycles seem to be extending:

https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1199703369880915969/photo/1

It’s been a good year for assets:

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1201585160031997952/photo/1

If you didn’t learn anything….As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

​
​

Unusual Option Activity In Nuance Communications

December 5, 2019 Published by

Nuance Communications, Inc. provides conversational artificial intelligence (AI) innovations that bring intelligence to everyday work and life. The company delivers solutions that understand, analyze, and respond to people – amplifying human intelligence to increase productivity and security. It offers customers high accuracy in automated speech recognition, natural language understanding capabilities, dialog and information management, biometric speaker authentication, text-to-speech, and domain knowledge along with professional services and implementation support.

Nuance Communications, Inc. has this AI tool called Lightning Engine™ that combines voice biometrics and natural language understanding (NLU) that allows consumers to set up a unique voice profile as part of an organization’s account enrollment. When they contact that organization on a voice channel, all they need to do is speak naturally and their identity is confirmed almost immediately.  Many months ago my bank asked me with I wanted to set this up, so instead of remembering a password or a pin, the next time I’m on the phone, all I have to do is speak to confirm my identification.

This isn’t really value added to the bank, well I guess it is in a way.  For example, if people forget their password or pin, well it will take time to reset it, taking away time from other things the bank personnel has to do. 

Here’s a concrete valued added example Nuance Communication products offer. 

Police officers face unique reporting challenges. For instance, they can spend an hour or more typing up a single incident report. For police sergeants, paperwork can consume up to 45 percent of the workday. Heavy documentation demands can impact the timely filing of reports, limit community visibility, and even put their safety at risk. There is a better way.

Ensure timely filing of incident reports. Eliminate the need to decipher handwritten notes or try to recall details from hours before. Officers simply speak to create detailed and accurate incident reports, 3 times faster than typing and with up to 99% recognition accuracy – all by voice.

Source

Several weeks ago, Nuance Communication Inc. reported their fourth quarter earnings which beat expectations.  The company reported net income of $108.1 million, or 37 cents a share, compared with a loss of $35.1 million, or 13 cents a share, in the year-ago period.  In addition, revenue rose to $487.8 million compared with $479.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s stock is up more than 20% for the 3rd quarter and more than 50% for the year.   However, the Smart Money thinks there is more room for the stock to run. As they bought call options that expire in January,

and longer term call options in April.

If the Smart Money is going to be right, price must first get through the weekly supply at $18.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

FUN technical analysis

December 5, 2019 Published by

FUN seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe how the structure of candles has formed us so far two HL on the diagonal support indicated within the chart by the horizontal dark blue, the closing of the previous candle has formed an accumulation doji as a bullish signal, if the closing of the current candle ends up being bullish we would have our third HL confirmation of a next move towards our first target gain located within the price range of 0.00000074 – 0.00000083, indicated inside the chart above by the two horizontal black color, our second target is located higher at 0.00000127, the major trend is bearish, the minor figure is forming an inverted triangle that could conclude in our first target, we would confirm this by seeing the price reaction in that area.

FUN seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has formed the double floor on the zone of weekly demand located at 0.00000038, indicated within the graph above by the horizontal green color, the current candle is being rejected by the zone of daily supply located at 0.00000051, we need to get the closing above that level if we want to see a next movement towards our target profit.

In conclusion, FUN maintains an excellent movement on the diagonal support where we have been forming two HL and we could have the third with the bullish closing of the weekly candle that has yet to be confirmed, however, the probabilities of a move towards our first profit target are high, this profit target is located within the price range of 0.00000074 – 0.00000083, it is very important that the price keeps the support diagonally, otherwise, the price could fall and form a new LL, therefore, I recommend to follow very closely the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 4 of 5

December 4, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 65th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000458599399

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-32m4r-c9f816

Transcript

Deciphering
China’s Blockchain Play – An Inflection Point?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week focuses on the
wider implications for blockchain arising from China’s declared ‘embrace’ of
the technology. 

To date, this series has repeatedly highlighted the
control-centric purpose of adopting blockchain in a Chinese context. Blockchain,
as it will be implemented by the Chinese Communist ruling Party, will serve to
extend the state’s reach ever further into the daily lives of its citizens.

To summarize – the Beijing blockchain model will be
centralized whether presented that way or not. Projects will be state-subservient
and their apparent efficiency benefits will simply be an added bonus regardless
of the propaganda which promotes their adoption.

Clearly, the chains that receive state-endorsement will see massive initial inflows of investment and user-base. In the short-term, this will present a direct challenge to their comparatively decentralized peers. Beijing blockchain may demonstrate blockbuster numbers in terms of users, market penetration and network value. In comparison, free-market projects may seem peripheral and indeed, irrelevant. A Telegram community channel boasting 20 thousand users will seem paltry when superficially compared with a state compelled user base running into the hundreds of millions.

In the short-term, there will be a temptation to jettison
this whole decentralized thing – bend the knee and make merry in the Chinese market.
Let’s not forget other authoritarian states will be following on behind Beijing
– so state-sanctioned centralized blockchains will be in a period of rapid
expansion. It’s also worth highlighting that most self-declared chains are
decentralized in name only. They are dominated by their founders, a core
development team, uneven coin distribution and so on. A shift from decentralized
to centralized would in most cases be very easily achieved – if the price was
right. To date, the cryptosphere has been replete with short-sighted cash grabs.
Any opportunity to cash-in has been taken this ‘opportunity’ will be no
different.

Of course, there’s Yin to this Yang. Any blockchain system
rolled out by the ruling party will clearly operate under direct supervision
and control. Independent ‘decentralized’ chains will have a readymade ‘dark’
version of themselves to compare and contrast to.

Immutability, censorship resistance, and permissionless
access may shine in this environment. Blockchain implemented as a tool of state
repression will likely see a flood of interest into the ‘other’ version’ as over
time the realization will dawn that’s it’s one version or the other. Blockchain
as big brother or as a vehicle of greater autonomy.

At the moment, it’s all what if’s and potential but that
era is coming to an end. Soon, a billion people will live under a darker vision
of blockchain. This will clearly offer an opportunity to decentralized projects.
In the medium to long-term decentralized iterations of blockchain may organically
overtake their lesser brethren. Where choice is possible – individuals will
likely veer towards tech that empowers.

In the interim, a ghetto system seems very likely.
Nations like China locked behind centralized networks while other states opt
for or are over-taken by permissionless chains. Over the next few years, real
investment opportunities may lie with projects that bridge the gap between the
two. Allowing access to or communication between chains with vastly differing governance
models

The centralized/decentralized blockchain development arc
will take decades to play out of course. Progress will be uneven and individual
jurisdictions will take different roads at different times. Whether one
iteration of blockchain comes to dominate the other remains to be seen. What is
absolutely clear, however, is that a struggle for the ‘purpose’ of blockchain
is about to start in earnest.

Thanks for listening.

Series Links

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

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