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The Sunday Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 45

September 8, 2019 Published by

Down, up, down – trading in a range – you get the picture. The cryptosphere itself has fortunately proven much more interesting than the price action. Lots going on and more than enough competing narratives to chew on. Twitter was on fire – included are only a fraction of the interesting discussions/observations of the last week or so.

Picks of the Week

A tour of the educational landscape of crypto in 2019 is of particular interest as is the sprawling podcast discussion of Austrian economics and Bitcoin.

Twitter

Crypto is impossible to predict bar predicting it’s going to matter:
https://twitter.com/HabichtJonathan/status/1167781482447945728

A dismissal of BTC dominance as measured against Alts:
https://twitter.com/Mandrik/status/1168708515323678721

BTC changes your spending behaviour:
https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1169332552856825856

A paean to Bitcoin:
https://twitter.com/MiguelCuneta/status/1168532740880265216

LTC – why?
https://twitter.com/PsychedelicBart/status/1167795185797017600

A conflation of coffee addiction and current macro economic policy – why not?:
https://twitter.com/cryptojoeinvest/status/1168298296588328960

A compelling opportunity before us?:
https://twitter.com/BitcoinTina/status/1168140812951195649

While an extreme position – there’s a degree of truth here too:
https://twitter.com/hodloncomrades/status/1168285790230548480

Articles

A detailed review of crypto in the world of education (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/highereducation-c4fb40ecbc0e

Bitcoin quietly hitting some important security milestones:
https://medium.com/federman-capital/stop-obsessing-about-price-bitcoin-today-is-stronger-than-ever-49c6aef4d31d

Why do we need more than one blockchain or indeed many?:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthougan/2019/08/28/beyond-bitcoin-why-there-will-be-more-than-one-successful-cryptoasset/#83883b27b6e7

Binance the Octopus:
https://www.thedailychain.com/will-binance-become-the-cryptocurrency-one-stop-shop/

A 2019 survey of blockchains:
https://news.bitcoin.com/whats-being-built-and-whats-not-on-2019s-smart-contract-blockchains/

Currency controls – crypto anyone?:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-imposes-currency-controls-debt-175803406.html

A rough road ahead for millennials (non-crypto specific)?:
https://medium.com/utopiapress/the-2020-recession-will-be-brutal-to-millennials-ddd9feae2598

Podcast

Slow to warm-up but a fascinating discussion of Austrian economics, Bitcoin, and Libertarianism – lots to think on (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/stephan-livera-on-austrian-economics-libertarianism/id1317356120?i=1000447615002

YouTube

Negative bond yields – a brief explanation of why you might buy them (recommended):

Perhaps this is why you might hold ADA with a 10yr horizon but not too much (recommended):

Decentralized Autonomous Companies (DACs) explained (recommended):

So what is blockchain hashing? (recommended):

Cause sometimes you gotta laugh at/with crypto if you are going to enjoy the ride:

Infographics

That’s a whole lot of selling into the market however you spin it:

​

https://twitter.com/mdudas/status/1167086846058336257/photo/1

Once you lose fiat value it’s tough to regain it:

https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1168324499168735232/photo/1

Website / Utility

Ready for a deep dive into Austrian economics? If so, this site is a great place to start:

https://mises.org/

Once again, I learned a lot this last week down the crypto rabbit hole. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

THETA technical analysis

September 8, 2019 Published by

THETA seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the structure of candles has formed the figure of a symmetrical triangle, the minima are being higher and higher while the maxima are being lower and lower, in simple terms this means that the buying force is increasing compared to the selling force, which in most cases, this ends up breaking the bullish figure.

The current candle is finding demand in the support located at 0.10790, it does not seem to be a very strong support, so the price could fall to the support diagonally forming a third touch that would be a great signal to buy, for the price to continue rising will have to recover the support mentioned above in case the price falls, in the chart I have indicated our first target located at 0.15072.

In conclusion, THETA presents a good figure to offer us gains in the short or medium term, a third test in the major support and the price could come up in search of the break, however, we must be very attentive to the implications that have the sudden movements of BTC, which affect the whole market, if the price of THET fails to hold the support, the price would come down to the first zone of demand located at 0.09210, where the price could find a recovery pullback and continue to rise, otherwise, our second demand zone is located at 0.07888, this zone represents the minimum historical THETA binance, so it should be an important buying zone.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Crypto Contest September 7: Dragon Coins

September 7, 2019 Published by

Dragon Coins (HitBTC: DRGBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Dragon Coins began a wave one advance on August 19. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 30, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 5. If this wave count is correct, Dragon Coins should be heading next towards the August 30 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Zooming out in the daily chart, I believe Dragon Coins is currently in the red wave three (blue sub-wave iii). The red wave three began on August 19.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Dragon is a blockchain solution for the entertainment industry. You can watch the economics of Dragon Coin below.

(Sources: Dragon Coins and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Crypto Contest September 6: 12Ships

September 6, 2019 Published by

12Ships (Bittrex: TSHPBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, 12Ships began a wave one advance on August 23. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 23, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction could have ended today. If this wave count is correct, 12Ships should be heading next towards the August 23 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

12Ships is a mining economy system & advanced mining machine. You can watch their intro video below.

(Sources: 12Ships and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Crypto Contest September 5: SPINDLE

September 5, 2019 Published by

SPINDLE (HitBTC: SPDETH) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, SPINDLE began a wave one advance on August 20. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 26, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 4. If this wave count is correct, SPINDLE should be heading next towards the August 26 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

SPINDLE is a match-making platform for private investors and cryptocurrency funds. You can find their white paper here.

(Sources: SPINDLE and White Paper)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Two Minute Crypto – Key Concepts 9 – What is a (Bitcoin) Node?

September 5, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 52nd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-key-concepts-9-what-is-a-bitcoin-node/id1441492450?i=1000448628831

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-j7uxm-be41d8

Transcript

Key Concepts 9 – What is a (Bitcoin) Node?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode of the Key Concepts Series examines blockchain nodes and attempts to explain their role in a typical chain with as little jargon as possible. While there are different implementations of nodes across blockchains the underlying role of such nodes is generally the same. As Bitcoin is by far and away the most distributed example of a blockchain system – its node structure will be referenced.

What is a node?

A node is simply a full digital record of all previous transactions on a blockchain network which participates in the network by processing transactions and blocks in accordance with the rules encoded in that system. Each and every entry on the blockchain is stored on this point of reference.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, it is possible for any individual to download a copy of Bitcoin core and store it on their computer. Currently, this digital copy of all previous interlinked blocks is about 250GBs. It is further possible for that record to interact with the Bitcoin network to ensure that new transactions are valid and that they adhere to the rules or consensus mechanism of BTC – this is a node. A record, a ruleset, and a connection. Bitcoin nodes do not operate for profit as the record validator is not paid a fee.

A node, therefore, is essential to the security and operation of a blockchain. The greater the number of nodes the wider the distribution of a chains record and the more resilient it is. More points of reference equal greater network information integrity.

Why run a node?

Well, first and foremost, you are helping to secure the system you wish to use. Secondly, by running a node you have the ability to participate in verifying your own transactions and therefore remove all trust from your use of the network. Of course, your node needs to communicate with the rest of the system but you are assured of the validity of your transactions as you already hold a trusted record of the blockchain.

Bitcoin is often touted as the most robust blockchain system – its widely distributed node network is a key attribute of its security. While it’s impossible to get a completely accurate number for currently operational nodes – there are at least 10 thousand and growing.

It’s important not to confuse nodes with miners. Nodes hold records but miners solve the cryptographic computational problem that allows the addition of new blocks to the chain. Mining requires highly specialized equipment such as ASICS and is an energy-intensive process. Miners are paid a fee for doing so. Nodes, in contrast, operate on normal consumer-grade hardware and may operate in the background. In Proof of Work networks such as Bitcoin, it is the synergy of nodes and miners that process, validate and protect the network.

Thanks for listening.

Resources

What is Bitcoin Full Node and How to Run a Bitcoin Full node in 6 simple steps?
https://medium.com/coinmonks/how-to-run-a-bitcoin-full-node-in-6-simple-steps-a243189a5750

What Are Nodes?
https://www.binance.vision/blockchain/what-are-nodes

Nodes
https://lisk.io/academy/blockchain-basics/how-does-blockchain-work/nodes

Bitcoin Analysis: Key Areas to Watch and Targets

September 4, 2019 Published by

In today’s video we’ll discuss where bitcoin may be heading next, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.

Video Analysis:

If you don’t see the above video, navigate to TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/?workin2005/) or Steemit in order to watch.

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.

Workin

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 02 September

September 2, 2019 Published by

In “BTC analysis – 26 August” I updated my latest thoughts on Bitcoin’s medium-term movements. Since then a price reversal in the $9300s has forced a reassessment of that situation.

Previously I spoke of a bull flag. That flag was forming in a descending channel and was adhering to diagonal Fib levels as it did so, something like this:

But what appeared to be a series of higher lows caused me to reconsider and change the flag into a pennant, as seen in my BTC post last week:

Now things have changed again – or at least may be about to change.

The price movements of this last weekend may have altered the bull pennant into a more bearish converging triangle pattern.

At this stage we require a confirmation move, which we will get, one way or another.

Scenarios:

The chart below shows the two main scenarios that we may now be dealing with.

In Scenario 1 BTC is forming a converging triangle with a near-horizontal base. Scenario 1 will be confirmed if price continues to rise to about $11000.

In Scenario 2 BTC is still in a descending channel. Scenario 2 will be confirmed if BTC ceases to rise well short of $11000 and then falls below $9300 for a sustained period (more than just a few hours).

Scenario 1

If Scenario 1 is correct then it is most likely that BTC price will remain in the triangle until the final quarter of 2019, after which it will probably break downwards. We can see that a downwards break is more likely, because a flat-bottomed triangle is an indication that support is continually being tested. Eventually that support “runs out” (as buy orders are filled and traders decline to place new orders that high in a market which is turning bearish). In addition to that, most momentum indicators (such as the MACD, RSI or long-term MAs) will show that momentum is becoming/has become negative. Most telling of all is the volume, which is still steadily declining.

In the likely even that BTC does break out of this (unconfirmed) triangle in a downwards direction, the big question will be “How Low?”
Recent support lies in the high $7000s/low $8000s. That is enough to catch the dip, but don’t get a shock if it fails to hold there. If support breaks, then the next recent support level only lies at $5600 and below. I think that any dip that low will be very short lived. If you do see BTC that low then buy like crazy! Between the high $7000s and $5600 is another possible support level in the mid to low $6000s. This is the support level established in 2018, though its continued existence is uncertain because:

  1. It broke conclusively in November 2018.
  2. No resistance was encountered at that level when BTC climbed through it in May of 2019.

After the dip, we can expect a rapid recover and then a steady climb along the long-term base trendline for BTC – until the market turns properly bullish and hype sets in.

Scenario 2

If Scenario 2 is correct, then BTC will most likely decrease in price all the way to the bottom of the channel. Since the channel is downwards sloping, the price level at which BTC hits the bottom of the channel continually decreases over time. Were price to reach the bottom of the channel today, then it would be at around $8000. But if it only reaches it a month from now, then it will be in the mid-$7000s.

Scenario 2 is still reminiscent of a bull flag, which means that it precedes a swift increase in price after hitting the channel bottom. It is unlikely that price would then bounce up and down for yet another cycle within the channel, that would be too unusual.

Likelihood

I consider Scenario 1 to be a very likely Scenario. I allocate a probability of 55% to Scenario 1.
Scenario 2 is not very likely anymore. I allocate a probability of 20 % to Scenario 2.
The remaining 25% is for “something else” – an as yet unforeseen price movement or variation of one of the above scenarios.

Conclusion

Whatever happens, I am predicting a relatively bearish two or three months. I think we will see a decent sized dip soon. I have been waiting with Buy orders in the $8000s for a few weeks now. Depending on what happens next, I will consider shifting some or all of those orders a bit lower, and/or perhaps placing additional Buy orders at even lower prices.

I do not see the market really picking up before December 2019 at the earliest, but on the other hand, I’m predicting a stellar (not Lumens) 2020 for BTC and crypto in general! For now I will continue to stack little bits of BTC if I can afford it, AND ALTCOINS! There is blood on the streets, this is the time to accumulate alts!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:






The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 44

September 1, 2019 Published by

Study hard what interests you the most in the most undisciplined, irreverent and original manner possible.
Richard Feynmann

The purpose of this weekly series is to recap some of the interesting ideas and concepts across a wide range of disciplines which each and every week in crypto seems to throw up. This ‘learners paradise’ is a great space to explore but also asks a lot of those who delve into it.

Got a grasp on basic programming logic, how about Austrian economics, or quantum computing or precisely how hashing algorithms underpin blockchains? Taking a moment to reflect or recap on the recent concepts and ideas crossing the crypto landscape can be very beneficial whether you are a hardcore day trader or just exploring a casual interest in the space.

It’s important to note that not every idea here reflects my own bias or opinion. If it’s here, it’s because it made me think.

Picks of the Week

In addition to this excellent comparison of EOS and ETH, this sobering take on the current state of the crypto landscape and the challenges facing any decentralized project is well worth thinking on. Five levels of explanation on the topic of Quantum computing is another highlight.

Twitter

A different take on BTC market capitalization:
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1165822410542723072

Ripple replies to selling into market tag:
https://twitter.com/bgarlinghouse/status/1166455842238943232

A BTC thought:
https://twitter.com/barrygilliand/status/1167232120093401094

200K BNB – took 16 seconds to lend:
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1166598696999497730

Cash bans are pending whether you live in the West or the East:
https://twitter.com/VentureCoinist/status/1166529833519734784

A rough average of purchase points for holders of some of the top cryptos:
https://twitter.com/crypto_bobby/status/1166435397116801030

A likely Brexit outcome – no but worth thinking on:
https://twitter.com/TamasBlummer/status/1167325252180795394

Articles

Inflation is beginning to really hurt (the valuation of) some major crypto projects:
https://messari.substack.com/p/the-race-to-zero

Grim take on the state of decentralization (recommended but I wouldn’t take it all at face value):
https://medium.com/futuresin/rip-decentralization-ae2d13417da7

A well researched and thorough comparison of EOS v Ethereum networks (highly recommended):
https://hackernoon.com/eos-market-cap-will-soon-exceed-ethereum-e75873q3m

A brief review of blockchain token models:
https://medium.com/ontologynetwork/an-introduction-to-token-models-in-the-blockchain-world-fc1f3450969c

Moving beyond blockchain isolationism:
https://medium.com/the-liquidapps-blog/blockchain-maximalism-fighting-coin-cultism-through-interoperability-ethereum-eos-fd9e7b970e8e

How did the US-China trade dispute get to this point?:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/how-the-u-s-china-trade-war-got-to-this-point-quicktake

Podcast

Another wide-ranging discussion of cryptography and a range of blockchain mechanisms/issues (recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/silvio-micali-founder-algorand-history-cryptography/id1434060078?i=1000446699688

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/silvio-micali-founder-algorand-history-cryptography/id1434060078?i=1000446699688

A brief exploration of the tenets of Austrian economics and its relationship to crypto, in particular, Bitcoin maximalism.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-austrian-economics-and-crypto/id1441492450?i=1000448064083

YouTube

An optimistic take on recessions/hyper-growth/universal basic income (recommended):

Analysing the current BTC pullback (recommended):

Ethereum focused platforms that pay interest on your crypto (use with caution):

Colin on difficulties facing both EOS and Ethereum:

Quantum computing – graded explanations (recommended):

Infographic

BTC market dominance may, in fact, be a lot higher than CoinMarketCap indicates:

https://arcane.no/#reports

Website / Utility

Stay up to date on EOS airdrops and airgrabs (yes they still happen):

https://eosnewswire.one/eos-airdrops-and-airgrabs/

EOS Airdrops and Airgrabs

That’s a wrap on another compelling week in crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Two Minute Crypto – Austrian Economics and Crypto

August 29, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 51st episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-austrian-economics-and-crypto/id1441492450?i=1000448064083

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-c84pt-bd65fe

Transcript

Austrian Economics and Crypto

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week we explore Austrian economics – a core pillar underlying the economic worldview of most Bitcoin advocates. As a crypto enthusiast, you’ve likely noticed that Austrian economics is frequently referenced, in particular, by Bitcoin maximalists. So, what exactly are they referring to? What follows is an extremely simplified overview of the Austrian school of economic thought. It is also not an unequivocal endorsement as my personal view lies somewhere between the Keynesian-Austrian models.

The main beliefs of the Austrian School of economics can be summarized into five areas:

  1. Laissez-faire economics – a strong belief in the primacy of free markets viewing government regulations and interventions in markets as an inefficient negative. This extends to a belief that all government programs such as infrastructure spending, social welfare, and public healthcare are inherently wasteful.
  2. A rejection of the Keynesian model of fiscal policy which involves the creation of fiat by governments in order to support spending programs and stimulate the economy.
  3. A related rejection of the role and actions of central banks in both the printing of fiat money and the setting of interest rates in order to balance, promote or reduce inflation. In addition, Austrian economists are sharply critical of the fractional reserve banking system which utilizes debt to promote economic growth.
  4. Support of a return to a gold standard or in the case of crypto adherents, the adoption of Bitcoin as a new standard and or global currency. Key to this is the removal of the ability of the state to ‘create’ money. Sound sovereign money may be said to be the heart of the belief system most Bitcoin maximalists espouse.
  5. A belief that market recessions are in large part caused by central bank interest rate manipulation – inverting the relationship commonly stated by central banks where it is the looming recession itself that causes the change of rates.

Bitcoin advocates would argue that BTC is deflationary in nature. Its supply is limited, its issue known and dependable and critically, its supply lies outside the control of any state or body. Austrian economics and Bitcoin maximalism are natural co-concepts. It is extremely difficult to be both a Bitcoin supporter and a proponent of Keynesian economics.

As to other cryptocurrencies, it is far more debatable whether they offer a viable alternative to fiat currencies. If they are centrally controlled, then the possibility of supply being open to manipulation is orders of magnitude higher than BTC.

If you are interested in learning more about the Austrian school of economics as it relates to crypto, I highly recommend you read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous.

Thanks for listening.

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