I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
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From https://old.trybe.one/archives/btc-beginning-of-the-week-analysis/
But the price movements of the last few days are indicating that a channel (or possible flag) may not be the correct way to view BTC at the moment.
Instead, BTC now looks to be limited by the rising base of a converging triangle, as opposed to the descending base of a channel:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Scenarios:
The triangle itself is neither inherently bullish nor bearish, so in isolation it tells us nothing about the direction of future price movements. What it does do is give us a time: soon. Price is already in the breakout zone of the triangle, and should breakout any time between now and mid-September.
Previously I was of the opinion that the channel was probably part of a larger bull flag pattern.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
But now it looks more likely to be a bull pennant:
Since these two patterns predict the same bullish outcome, this doesn’t fundamentally change my medium-term outlook. This may make a difference to those trading the pattern, but as my blogging is generally geared towards investors, I consider that to be beyond the scope of this post. If you are a trader, then take a look at the posts or videos of an analyst such as Working2005 who regularly discusses crypto trading.
For my part I am not ready to see this “2019 bull run” continue yet. As I discussed in my recent “Crypto Market Cycles” series, I am still expecting a drop before we have another rise. This is somewhat contrary to what a bull pennant may indicate, but I have my reasons for saying so.
Volume is declining slowly but steadily, which puts BTC at risk of a sudden drop. Such a drop would tie in nicely with the information I discussed in “Crypto Market Cycles”, where I showed BTC to be trading at a higher price than what we would expect for a low-hype market:
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/crypto-market-cycles-part-2/
I addition to this, I still believe that the current price movement (of the last couple of months) strongly resembles those of 2017:
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/bitcoin-possible-next-moves/
…meaning that a strong and sudden dip could well occur soon. I am expecting such a dip. It is only after such a dip that I expect prices to climb again – as predicted by a bull pennant. This won’t necessarily be a “bull run” per se – just the following of the general BTC base trendline further upwards.
The bull run has yet to come…
Yours in crypto Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” ~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” ~ Bit Brain
Back form holidays but still not working since we are on the weekend but, finally I have time to analyze the Daily BITCOIN chart in a more accurate manner. I have redone my EW-count and I think I found an structure that will fit with the current situation.
The structure is a Bouble Combo Correction (WXY) which is composed by the combination of three main Legs:
W Leg: Can be any Zig-zag or Flat correction
X Leg: Can be any Zig-zag, Flat , triangle or combo as well
Y Leg: Can be a Zig-zag, Flat or a Triangle
Only one triangle is allowed and it can be formed either on X or in Y but not in both. If it was the case that two triangles were formed at X and Y, the pattern would be different (Double Zig-Zag) with different results, so since the X leg is a ZIG-ZAG, a triangle may be formed on the Y Leg…or not :-)..
So, in my opinion there are two main scenarios in order to end the correction:
Y leg ending in a pure Flat Correction: Level of price would be similar or slightly below “W” , i.e. around 9000 USD as the main known support
Y leg is a triangle which will push the price lower, in search of the inclined blue line, i.e. 7600 USD
Looks like September is going to be an excellent month for the whole Crypto Market.
@toofasteddie
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
In my prior update, we discussed the real possibility of price breaking down to test the $9,950 support. That’s exactly what happened. As of now, that support remains in tack. Price is operating within one big symmetrical wedge. As bitcoin approaches the apex, we can expect a much larger move.
In today’s video we’ll discuss where price may go from here, traps to avoid and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
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Spread the word about Bitcoin and help change the world. Support this channel by getting your Bitcoin shirts, hats and apparel here:https://www.bitcoin-gear.com?aff=42
I can see that I’m going to have to type this quickly.
The comments on “Crypto Market Cycles – Part 1” are already drawing me into discussing the Part 2 subject matter! Okay *cracks knuckles*, here goes:
Yesterday we looked at the market cycles of traditional markets. In truth, I didn’t really look at the cycles per se, rather I pointed out that the future nature of long-term cycles has become unpredictable. Thus to assume that they will continue as normal would be a mistake. Basically I pointed out that an upset was looming.
Part Two – the market cycles of Bitcoin and the altcoins
If you think that tracking the cycles of the regular markets is tricky, then you must see just how tricky it is to track Bitcoin!
I have already stated that mistakes are made when analysing Bitcoin cycles. I firmly believe that the large majority of analysts with their 4-year Bitcoin cycles based on halving events are talking utter rubbish! We’ve just gone through a Litecoin halving event, did you notice the change? No? Nor did anybody else for that matter. In fairness, you could say that the big bullish climb comes some time after the halving event – and you would be right – but you would be dead wrong if you thought that it was because of the halving event. I have debunked this halving cycles hype nonsense in some detail – take a look:
Bitcoin is cyclic. It does follow repetitive patterns at the macro and micro scales. We know that, we’ve seen them.
BUT:
WE DO NOT YET HAVE THE ABILITY TO PREDICT THOSE CYCLES WITH ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY!
Why not?
Some of the reasons were mentioned in the halving posts linked to above. From a technical analysis perspective – we simply do not possess sufficient reliable data. It will make it simpler to explain if I illustrate this graphically:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
You CAN NOT trust the information of a time when Bitcoin sold for $100 a coin. The market was TINY! Every significant buy or sell had the power to skew the charts radically – giving a false perception of market conditions and manipulating it (intentionally or not) to an enormous degrees. There were simply not enough people trading Bitcoin at the time, with the result that general trading could not smooth out anomalies. The problem compounds as you move back in time: the sub-$50 Bitcoin of early 2013, the sub-$10 Bitcoin of 2012, the sub-$1 Bitcoin of 2011. The anomalies thus reflect on the charts of the time and make them unusable.
I normally cite mid-2013 as my cut-off point after which data becomes usable. It’s a thumb-suck on my part, but it’s an “educated thumb-suck”. Taking an average over time does work, but only when there is sufficient data. Pre-2013 data is insufficient to create a meaningful average!
That leaves us with only about six years of usable data.
Six years.
And from THAT alone you want to deduce market cycles? I’ll have some of what you’re smoking thanks!
It’s hard enough just to establish the basic trendlines of such a short period, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to deduce accurate market cycles!
Anyone who claims that they can do so is either:
Lying
A fool
This is about the best you can do under the circumstances:
Made by Bit Brain with TradingView.
That’s the kind of chart which I have been showing in my long-term posts for well over a year now. From a TA point of view, you really can’t do much more than that when looking long-term. We SEEM to have some sort of channel or trend with a fairly firm baseline and parallel market peaks. We don’t have enough of them to predict the timing of the next peak, or how smaller bull/bear runs may behave within the confines of the channel. We don’t know if the channel should curve, or even which way it should curve. Yes I have seen the downwards curving charts based on data that goes back to 2010. No, I don’t agree with them (the trend may curve downwards later, but the data they are using to show that already is wrong to use in that fashion) – see above.
For this reason I turn to fundamentals when making long-term BTC predictions. I’m not going to break the market down in fundamental terms now, that would take days. Instead, I’m going to tell you what I foresee from a fundamental point of view.
I believe that the rough baseline you see above will continue to be followed in its upwards direction. Importantly, I believe that the BTC capitulation of late 2018 did NOT end due to the return of bullish sentiment, but rather because it crossed into critically oversold territory (reaching and possibly breaking through the baseline). I believe that price was bought back up to where it should be (in around April of this year), that the buying was largely interpreted as a bull run, and that it then caused some hype – which is why BTC ran up to $13k before stagnating. I believe that price will continue to fall slowly until the baseline is once again approached, this is because (as I said earlier) bullish sentiment has NOT returned yet! (That’s also why my own BTC buy orders are sitting in the $8000s.)
To put it another way: I think that the baseline represents the adoption of BTC. As more people adopt it, so demand pressure on price increases and value derived from Metcalfe’s Law (which deals with the size of a network) is reflected on the charts. Any dip below that baseline becomes unsustainable. Thus price is forced upwards by organic growth.
When bulls take charge, then price shifts Northwards of this baseline. When that will happen and for how long are questions that we can not yet answer – we do not have that data or sufficient prior data to extrapolate from.
I have said multiple times that the 2019 “bull run” started too early to be sustainable. This is why I say so. I maintain that we have NOT seen a proper bull run this year, just a little hype which is still dying down. I maintain that the proper bull run is yet to come – and from fundamentals, it looks like it will be BIG!
Which brings us back to the traditional market cycles. If fiat systems were to collapse today, would BTC be ready to pick up the load? I often doubt it…
BUT
I may be wrong to do so.
Recent catastrophic fiat-crisis events in Greece, Turkey, Zimbabwe and Venezuela have shown us that a population is capable of VERY RAPIDLY turning to BTC in times of crisis. BTC may not rival gold as a legitimate store of value YET, but its benefits over gold become obvious when you need to procure a lot of it quickly! Argentina is showing us that right now – as they also join the group of nations whose fiat currency is no longer trusted by their people. I honestly believe that the demise of ALL fiat is inevitable, as human beings we simply can not be trusted not to exploit a system which is so easily corruptible, the temptation will always be too great. It only takes one greedy person to ruin it for everybody!
I know that the mindset shift is a big one. When things are going well – which is basically the ONLY way that those who have grown up in First World countries are familiar with – then it is very difficult to justify not trusting your fiat and swapping it into “riskier” assets. You don’t know how good you’ve had it…
But when your country/currency suddenly becomes chaotic, then you very quickly realise that it is in fact your FIAT which has no value and it is your fiat which is the riskiest asset of all!
Let me put it to you like this: if the global economy crashes tomorrow, people will pour into Bitcoin. If the global economy crashes next year or three years down the line, people will pour into Bitcoin even quicker. Once they pour in, they won’t pour out again. Bitcoin will get a chance to prove itself globally, and the end of fiat dominance will be a fait accompli.
Before I end this…
That’s all I needed to say today. Don’t worry about the cycles too much – because nobody knows what they will do next. When the world needs it, Bitcoin will be ready and waiting.
Oh, one more thing: you didn’t think that I had forgotten the altcoins did you?
If you have been following this post so far, then you will know why the altcoins continue to perform poorly this year: no bull run yet. (Ah! It all makes sense now, doesn’t it?) Altcoins run when sentiment is high. They are the spillover of funds destined for BTC, but looking for better returns offered by lower market cap investments. When BTC does run, the altcoins will run too – faster than BTC. But as long as sentiment is low, altcoins will stay low. Take a look around, the crypto blogs are DEAD! Even I am struggling to remain motivated as a blogger, I’ve been focusing much of my attention elsewhere lately.
Sentiment is down. The bull run has yet to come. Altcoins will follow BTC when it does. That’s the altcoin “cycle” – do whatever BTC does – only more so, and with a slight delay.
Remember that not all altcoins are equal. We can expect the good ones to do well. We can expect dead ones to stay dead. We can expect new ones to get hype which they do not deserve. Shop carefully! My advice is still to go and find the good projects which have survived the altcoin winter – and invest in them. They are far cheaper than new projects, and they have proven staying power. There are FANTASTIC deals out there TODAY!
The End
…not that cycles have an end…
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
If you have been in the CryptoWorld for a while, you probably came accross this indicator.
What is it?
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreations. There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100.
The complete list of factors with their weighting
Volatility (25%)
Market Momentum/Volume (25%)
Social Media (15%)
Surveys (15%)
Dominance (10%)
Trends (10%)
For a full disclosure on what are these factors exactly referring to please go to their website
We are seeing a very high level of fear (or low level of greed). I posted below a graph of their Fear & Greed Index followed by a graph of the Bitcoin Price.
In the last 18 months, the indicator dipped strongly 2 times before and when it did you can see the reaction by BTC a few weeks later !
I am not saying it is a 100% probability metric but something is SURE; I prefer buying when people are scared than the opposite. And today, it seems investors are being careful maybe too much?
Altcoins continue to get hammered. Meanwhile, BTC is plodding along steadily in a sideways direction, the bulls trying to break to new 2019 highs, but not having the power to overcome the bears who could plunge prices back towards $8000. The old 5 August chart (shown below) from THIS POST is still valid from the bearish perspective. I consider the market to be in favour of the bears at the moment, so this is still the chart which I am basing my own BTC buying prices on.
From https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrencies/bit-brain/btc-beginning-of-the-week-analysis-2/
What we are watching is the interplay of market cycles. Lately I have found myself discussing market cycles in the comments sections of various posts on multiple platforms.
I would like to thank CryptosDecrypted in particular for inspiring this post. If you read his post titled “The Sunday Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 42“, you will see that he chats a bit about market cycles, a chat which we continued in the comments section of that post. Incidentally you can follow him on Twitter if you don’t already do so. He’s a quality crypto analyst and blogger, so I recommend that you keep an eye on what he has to say: https://twitter.com/GordonBuckley3
Bitcoin price moves in cycles. Altcoin prices move in cycles – generally together and closely tied to that of Bitcoin. The major financial markets of the world move in cycles. In his blog post, CD remarked:
“My two cents – we are a full economic cycle from BTC (and only BTC) becoming established as a reliable counterweight to global market corrections.”
That got me thinking a bit, to the point that I believe I must share my own views on the topic (hence this post). Note: I’m not saying that CD is wrong, his opinion carries weight and is probably at least as valid as my own. Realise that none of us analysts own a working crystal ball, we all just call what we observe as best we can. Here is my take on it:
Traditional Markets
I doubt that we’ve seen a proper global stock market crash since The Great Depression. Bear (pun intended) with me here: I realise that the 2008 crash is spoken about in hallowed tones. But 2008 was akin to a failed suicide attempt: a dramatic cry for help, but a cry which averted the disaster. You see: the markets bounced straight back. The reason that we don’t call it “The Great Depression II” is that it was nowhere near that scale or duration. Yes, it has absolutely had a lasting effect on some asset classes, look at precious metals for instance, but the fiat based assets recovered and moved on!
We must now ask the “How?” and “Why?” questions. The answer is not pretty.
Zooming out on the situation and looking in retrospect, we can observe how fiat saved itself. Contrary to reason and sound financial practice, solid assets – good stores of value – were sacrificed in order to prop up the failing fiat house-of-cards. As analogies go, I don’t think you can do better then comparing fiat money to a house-of-cards. Ironically, the booming housing market played a role in the last “crash”, ironic because property is typically a good store of value. Regardless of the cause, the markets took a big dip, but they were prevented from crashing entirely. Governments stepped in to protect their house-of-cards from being blown down by the Big Bad Wolf. Unfortunately for them, there was no Big Bad Wolf. All there was was a very shaky arrangement of unbacked fiat-based derivatives built on top of an unbacked fiat money system.
The markets dipped simply because investors were no longer confident that what they held was worth what the markets said it was worth. That’s bad. That means that the fiat foundation of the house-of-cards has cracked. But fear not! The government came along and applied liberal doses of Quantitative Easing plaster and patched over the cracks. Then they painted it with a big tin of debt coloured paint, the special kind which contains micro-particles of Fractional Reserve Banking.
So we’re all living in the same house-of-cards which we lived in a decade ago, only now it is much MUCH bigger, is covered in considerably more debt, contains a wealth of inefficient private entities which should have died (but which were bailed-out with public funds), and is generally looking about as sturdy as a crowbar made of cheese.
This matters.
The reason this matters is because the really big crash has not been avoided, it’s been delayed. A healthy corrective crash – a correction which would have weeded out much of the unsustainable fiat rot – was prevented from occurring. What has happened is that the market’s have been set up to fail, far more than they ever would have a decade ago if they had just been allowed to crash organically.
That matters too.
That matters because it means something very important to us: There is no precedent for what will happen next.
We can talk about market cycles, but we will be kidding ourselves. What happens next will break new ground. Our best bet will be to look at what happened during the Great Depression. But even that was almost a century ago and in a very different world – there is only so much that we can take from that example. 2008 may look big to us, but that’s only because we don’t have something bigger to benchmark it against. We haven’t seen a proper crash since the establishment of Bretton Woods. That caused an upset of its own, but that was just the market reestablishing its footing at the time. Everything since then has been a mini-crash or a temporary correction, much like 2008 – fiat has yet to fail, so far it has not been allowed to do so in an unrestricted fashion.
Look at the cryptocurrency market of 2008. that was a crash, a proper crash. All the little altcoins that should no longer exist due to poor management, lack of funds, lack of performance or just poor marketing – they were wiped out. Nobody bailed them out, and the altcoin world is now far stronger for it. The fiat markets took the exact opposite approach, they did the equivalent of bailing out the shitcoins which should have died, be it the tiny little ones or BITCONNNEEEEEEECCCCTTT!!! itself!
From the public domain; modified by Bit Brain
Take home point: the market cycles may well soon “break” and behave unpredictably. The current system is an unsustainable house-of-cards. Something has to give, and when it does, it will definitely have enormous repercussions.
End of Part 1
Let that sink in a little. In Part 2 we will look at crypto cycles – BTC and the altcoins. Then we will determine if and how these cycles may influence one another.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Bitcoin continues to consolidate on top of support at $10,650. Bears are threatening a major break down, while bulls defend $10,000.
In today’s video we’ll discuss a few different scenarios, including a large potential bear trap. We’ll also discuss key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
If you found this post informative, please:
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In today’s video we discuss bitcoin’s micro and macro trend. We’ll talk about potential next moves, key areas to watch and so much more. I hope you find it helpful.
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
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I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading.
Workin
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