As one of the more pessimistic analysts out there, the recent rise in Bitcoin has finally convinced me that the bear market is over. If that’s not an indicator for you, I don’t know what is! With a change in the market, comes a change in strategy. From now on, it is time to Buy The Fucking Dip (BTFD)!
Crypto spring has begun
If you’ve following my blog then you know that I have been one of the more pessimistic commentators out there. Having suffered through a crypto-winter before I became very cautious in calling the end of the bear market this
Today the New York DOJ indicted two people on suspicion of ‘shadowbanking’ for crypto companies – most notably Bitfinex/Tether. On investigation it turns out that one of the companies involved in shadowbanking, Crypto Capital, was also tied to QuadrigaCX. Though the Tether FUD is strong these days, for once I am not worried about it. Let me explain.
There’s two things we need to seperate here. First there are the allegations of involved parties doing illegal things, like illegally functioning as a money transmitter without a license. Secondly there is the issue and concern that Tether is unbacked 1-to-1
Having suffered through a crypto-winter before this one, I feel it gives me some perspective. Technical analysis will get you so far, but I’ve learned that the market sentiment is a great indicator as well. From what I can tell the current market sentiment is very much along the lines of the ‘Denial stage’ of the market cycle. Still, with a Tether implosion looming on the horizon it makes one wonder if history really does rhyme..
Judging when capitulation is over and the Denial/Hope rally starts is one of the hardest things when it comes to investing. By definition the
French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire is going all-in into blockchain. At the opening of the Paris Blockchain Week he disclosed that he is a great believer in the technology and wants to make France a global leader in it. The French government wants to create a blockchain-friendly ecosystem and is going to actively work on stimulating the sector domestically. Le Maire also called on other international leaders to follow in France’s suit.
France is the first big nation to FOMO in!
His speech today was covered by some media, but nobody seems to have taken the time
It has been four months since my last post but don’t worry, I’m still here and I never left. I never stopped writing, I was just (professionally) writing elsewhere. And, of course, the last few months have been a drain on all of us, myself included. Still, we continue on a positive path with Bitcoin and crypto. These past few months have been accummulation for many people, including myself, and the question is now where to go from here. Did we enter the new Bull Market, or is this the Sucker’s Rally that I have been expecting for months now? Or, worse yet, do we still have more capitulation on the horizon?
So where have I been?
I never left, never powered down, and still highly optimistic about the space! More than ever before, in fact. Sometime last year, I decided to actually pursue a career in crypto because of it. My blog on Steemit turned out to be a great addition to my portfolio and it landed me a freelance job at a (non-English) crypto-news website. I’ve been writing articles there for a while now which I highly enjoy. Unfortunately it has cut down drastically on my free time and as such my blog on Steemit has suffered some serious neglect! I plan to change that, though, starting today.
On the current Bitcoin and crypto-markets
We’re at the most dangerous place and time possible: The intersection between Denial and Hope. It’s the most dangerous time because inherently it is impossible to foresee whether it is a case of Denial or a Sucker’s Rally. Everybody still in the space knows that a bottom will be found – at some point or another. It is now a matter of finding out where. There’s essentially three ways this can go: 1) The bottom was in at $3100 and we will soon break through $6000 and above to start a new bull-run 2) The bottom was in at $3100 and we will never drop below it but remain trading sideways below $6000. In this case we will likely retest $3100, or slightly above it to set a higher-low, in a few weeks/months to confirm the bottom. After that the new Bull-run can commence. 3) The bottom at $3100 was a false bottom, capitulation didn’t actually happen yet. We’ll not break $6000 and instead will eventually go back down to $3100 where it will not find support. This will trigger the true capitulation move that will bring us to a much lower level which is where the true bottom will be found. These three paths mean that it is highly risky to be buying Bitcoin right now if you don’t have steady hands. In two scenarios there is further downside potential and in only one scenario will it play out well and profitably. The distance between the current price and a price of $6500-ish is also small enough that adequate risk-management would encourage to instead wait to see if Bitcoin can break above $6000-$6500 first before buying. This removes most of the risk, even if it means sacrificing some gains. Considering most investors are rather risk averse, I believe the above may steer Bitcoin away from the possibility of breaking through $6000 anytime soon. There’s just more risk and strategically it plays better out to wait. This will decrease momentum and without it I do not believe Bitcoin can break through a crucial resistance level such as $6000. More likely do I consider scenario 2 and 3, which means that we’re not out of the woods quite yet. It means months more of waiting and accummulating slowly, which is either good or bad depending on how much in a rush you are.
Of course, the inherent psychology of the Denial stage may very well mean that I am suffering from this Denial right now. The market has a tendency to inflict the most amount of pain to the most amount of people. In the Denial stage that means that when all of us are waiting for Bitcoin togo lower, it might just do quite the opposite and shake out many people waiting for a price that may never come. In the end it is a psychological battle between FUD and FOMO. On one hand you could get more BTC if you waited. On the other hand, that might end you up with less BTC if it turns out to never happen and you are forced to buy in at a higher price. At what point does it become more of a risk, and less of an opportunity to wait on a further price drop? We’re going to have to wait and see. The real time to buy BTC was in the past 3-4 months, and congrats if you did. We may get a better chance to buy at an even better price, but without certainty of that happening it is rather essential to have built up a position prior. Still I have no quarrel buying at $5K either. If we drop lower than that is too bad, but on our way back up we will eventually pass this level again – and I expect I will be buying then at the same price just the same. If you think Bitcoin will eventually be much higher and you plan to hold for years to come, there is no problem at all with ensuring that you don’t miss the boat.
Future outlook & chart
As for my current outlook on the future paths that may unfold, I present to you my Tradingview chart. It is the Bitcoin price on a log chart. The scribbles I m made are not scientific nor entirely accurate, but it outlines the general path that I expect Bitcoin to take. By my estimation new ATH’s should be established in roughly mid 2022. Though as I said this is a very rough estimate which may very well end up being as much as a year off. My ATH puts us as a neat $100K. But just as $10K was once seen as an unbreakable ceiling, I wouldn’t be surprised if we similarly shot up to $200K or even $300K next time. Or perhaps as low as ‘only’ $80K.
If you know a thing or two about Bitcoin and it’s price charts, I believe the chart is pretty self-explanatory. It is the same pattern projected onto the future. I believe that psychology works the same in a group of 10.000 people as it does in a group of 100.000 or 100 million. What this pattern represents is the exponential growth and adoption of Bitcoin, showing the same general underlying psychology that occurs each bubble. That’s not to say these patterns are foolproof. Far from it. Unforeseen circumstances can change everything. A ban on Bitcoin might ruin it all, for example. And of course, at some point ‘this time it’s different’ might actually be true.
I hope you’re all still here for the ride that is crypto. If you are, congratulations! You are now TRUE veteran of the crypto space and if you’re still holding then you’re one of the real HODLers out there. I salute you!
It has been four months since my last post but don’t worry, I’m still here and I never left. I never stopped writing, I was just (professionally) writing elsewhere. And, of course, the last few months have been a drain on all of us, myself included. Still, we continue on a positive path with Bitcoin and crypto. These past few months have been accummulation for many people, including myself, and the question is now where to go from here. Did we enter the new Bull Market, or is this the Sucker’s Rally that I have been expecting for months now?