Stocks – Page 7

Box Got Crushed – Part 3

August 12, 2019 Published by timm

This is my third and
might be my last post on Box, not sure if they are worth discussing any
more. So let me catch you up on things.

I first spoke about Box five months ago,

Box Got Crushed

In 2005, Box was founded
and ten short years later, the company went public and now serves 70% of the
Fortune 500 companies. Box began as an enterprise-focused cloud
storage company, but it’s been increasingly building out a platform on top of
its cloud-storage product. I was never
high on the company because one of their biggest competitors is Microsoft
Corp’s OneDrive and SharePoint, who based on their size, sold the same
commodity type storage for cheaper.

Needless to say, earlier this year when they announced fourth quarter earnings, the results were below expectation.

I personally saw further declines and the chart suggested price would head down to the monthly demand at $14.

Lets fast forward to June,

Box Got Crushed – Part 2

Box announced their first quarter earnings report. Box’s revenue in the quarter increased 16% from a year earlier, but the lowered their forecast for the rest of the year leading to a sell off in the stock. Needless to say price hit and bounced off the the monthly demand zone at $14. As the zone indicated, there were unfilled buy orders which cause the bounce in price.

So the question at the time became there more unfilled orders at the demand zone or did they get all used up after the bounce in price?

Box isn’t scheduled to announce earnings until late Aug, but their direct competitor Dropbox Inc announce their second quarter earnings this past Thursday. Dropbox reported a slight increase in the number of users who are paying for its file sharing services but they also reported a wider second-quarter net loss. Again, since Box is in the same line of business as Dropbox, Box sold off as well.

So now we can answer the question of were there more unfilled buy orders at the demand zone or did they get all used up after the bounce in price in June? I’m sure there were more unfilled buy orders below the pivot highlight by the purple circle, but the sellers absorbed them all and pushed prices higher.

I expect price to bounce from current levels, but then head lower, eventually to the weekly demand at $10.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/12/19

August 10, 2019 Published by timm

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully. With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Consumer Staples (XLP)

Energy (XLE)

Financials (XLF)

Health Care (XLV)

Industrials (XLI)

Materials (XLB)

Real Estate (XLRE)

Technology (XLK)

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector – Part 2

August 9, 2019 Published by timm

I wanted to give an update on one of my favorite plays in the Marijuana space. I talked about Innovative Industrial Properties three months ago,

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector

but a lot has happen since then. Again, Innovative Industrial is a marijuana-based REIT that acquires cannabis-related properties. Innovative Industrial went public in 2016. The company has made eight quarterly dividend payments since July 2017, with three separate $0.10/quarter increases over that span. And on July 15^th, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, representing an increase of 33% from the previous quarter.

But also In July, the company issued 1,495,000 shares of common stock. Typically when a company issues more stock, where they dilute the earnings/share which is frown upon on Wall Street. This is probably why the stock fell in mid-July.

Now in my eyes, they raised more cash to buy more properties…which is a good thing. In recent months, the company has acquired the following properties: six in California, two in Pennsylvania, two in Michigan and one each in Ohio, Nevada and Massachusetts. But get this, all the properties have occupants that have signed on to long-term leases.

There reason why I love Innovative Industrial Properties so much is because you have an opportunity to get onboard a growing company, in one of the hottest growing secular trends, that’s paying shareholders dividends that grow almost every quarter. Why are dividends such a big due, look at the returns of the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends.

Source

I’m personally looking to buy if price gets to the $64 level, so if price breaches the daily demand at $95 price has a shot of getting through the mess in white and to the $64 level.

This level also represent a fib retracement of 61.8%, for all the folks out there that use fibonacci in their trading.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In Apple – Part 2

August 9, 2019 Published by timm

Three days ago, I talked about unusual options activity in Apple

Unusual Options Activity In Apple

After earnings, the stock price went from $220 to under $190, which represented a 14% drop. Since any stocks’ move is comprised roughly 49% of the broader market move and 31% of the stock’s sector move reason for the Apple’s drop was the DOW’s 800 point move to the downside. Nevertheless, algos and hedge fund managers saw price hitting the 200 moving average and that’s when price caught the bids. That’s also when the Smart Money bought an astounding 48,000 call options with a strike price at $200 that expire today.

Now the price at which those options as I write this post are sitting at $.70 or $70 per contract,

but prior to the Market close yesterday those contracts were at $300 / contract.

This represents a return of 254% for the Smart Money. Why do I say they made a profit, because they sold out of their positions yesterday? How do I know this, because the the 48,000 contracts, the volume in this case on Tues, would of shown up as open interest on Wednesday. Open interest indicates the total number of option contracts that are currently open or held. Unlike options trading volume, open interest is not updated during the trading day. So the Smart Money sold their options between Wednesday and Thursday, because the open interest going into the trading day Friday only shows a bit over 1500 contracts.

Another example of why I only follow the Smart Money…plain and simple, they have information that simple isn’t accessible to anyone else.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

I’m Following The Smart Money, Are You???

August 7, 2019 Published by timm

The book, The Millionaire Next Door, published 1996 and having sold more than 3 million books in essence is about living below your means and being financially responsible in order to allow your cash to work for you vs. you working for cash.

If you don’t have one of these type of neighbors to mimic, just follow what the Smart Money on Wall Street is doing.

TIGER 21

Wealthy investors are trimming their stock positions, amid anxiety around a trade war and instability in Washington.

Members of TIGER 21, an investment club for high-net-worth individuals, reduced their stock allocation to 21% from 22% during the second quarter, according to the group’s quarterly report.

TIGER 21, a group of about 700 people with at least $10 million to invest, stands for The Investment Group for Enhanced Results in the 21st Century.

“They are concerned about the fact that the markets were priced to perfection; they thought they reached real highs,” said Michael Sonnenfeldt, founder of TIGER 21.

Source

Warren Buffett

Warren is the greatest investors of our lifetime. Many don’t know he made the bulk of his money selling insurance. Yes, he owns GEICO and many other insurance companies, but I’m talking about insurance in the form of options, where he collects premium with the right to buy the asset at a later day. For example, during the Great Recession, Buffett loaned Goldman Sachs $5 billion. Not only did Goldman agreed to pay a 10% dividend on preferred shares to Buffett, which cost Goldman about $500 million a year, but when Buffett finally cashed in, in total, Buffett made about $1.75 billion in cash and about $1.35 billion in stock, roughly a 62% return on a five-year investment.

With stocks at record highs, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold $1 billion more worth of stocks than it bought last quarter, its biggest net selling since the end of 2017. The result was that the company’s cash hoard — a major focus for investors in recent years — surged to a record $122 billion.

Source

Jeff Bezos

Between July 29^th and Aug. 2^nd the CEO of Amazon sold 1.5 million shares, while the stock sold off 6% during that same time frame. But Jeff is by no means hurting, he’s still the richest man in the world. Speaking of Amazon, the stock, well it’s sitting between daily supply and demand zones.

Some folks on Wall Street have a $2500 target. What I see is long term momentum decreasing. It most certainly can break out, but it most certainly can break down too. Only time will tell, but in the meantime, I’m following the Smart Money.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In Boeing

August 6, 2019 Published by timm

They say the measure of a man’s character is not determined by how he handles his wins, but how he handles his failures. And so I give a lot of credit to the CEO of Boeing, CEO Dennis Muilenburg. He dealing with the aftermath of not one, but two fatal Boeing plane crashes that happen within a span of six months.

In March, an Ethiopian Airlines crashed killing 149 passengers and eight crew members on board shortly after takeoff. The incident was the second deadly crash of the new Boeing planes in less than five months. A Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX 8 plunged into the Java Sea shortly after taking off from Jakarta in October, killing all 189 people on board.

The culprit, Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), suspected of reacting to errant sensor data, the solution, a software update. Today, all 737MAX 8 planes around the world remain grounded.

The CEO thinks by the fourth quarter Boeing will have a software fix and the 737MAX 8 planes will be in service again. There’s only one issue, while actually two. Boeing is running out of time in maintaining investor confidence and they are running out of 737MAX8 storage room. To maintain investor confidence, Boeing decided to cut the production rate from 52 to 42 737MAX8s. But one solution created another problem. As planes are being built, there is no place to store them.

And now Boeing has been forced to resort to some creative storage places, like the employee parking lot.

Although the CEO remains confident, the Smart Money begs to differ. Yesterday I noticed some bearish unusual option activity where the Smart Money bought almost 7500 of the October put options with a strike price at $275.

This means the Smart Money thinks Boeing has more downside.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Capital One reports data breach affecting 100m customers

August 6, 2019 Published by mr.cryptolemon

Capital
One reports data breach affecting 100m customers (The WSJ)

Capital One, the 5^th largest US credit card issuer, confirmed on Monday that a hacker accessed the personal information of around 106m card customers & applicants, in one of the largest data breaches of a big “bank”.
The bulk of the exposed data related to information submitted by customers and small businesses that applied for Capital One credit cards between 2005 & early 2019. It appears that the breach occurred as long ago as late March 2019, and that it was found by a so called white hat hacker, who emailed Capital One about the leak.
Capital One was an enthusiastic adaptor of the cloud for data storage, with the process of shifting all data to AWS due to be completed by 2020.
The data hacked apparently included social security numbers, bank account numbers, credit scores & payment histories but not credit card numbers.

Analysis and Comments

There was some early speculation that as the hacker had previously worked at AWS, that the hack might have come from there, but more recent filings by the FBI suggest that the Capital One data breach was the result of a configuration vulnerability in the Capital One system.
The Capital One breach came just days after credit reporting agency Equifax announced a c. $700m settlement with a number of US government agencies regarding their data breach FTC blog on Equifax settlement. The settlement includes a sum of up to $425m for the c. 147m customers that were potentially impacted by the breach announced in Sept 2017.
Capital One was quoted as saying that they would make provision for costs of c. $100-$150m in 2019 to cover the notification of customers, credit monitoring & technology & legal costs. Although if the Equifax settlement is anything to go by this might not be all they end up spending.
According to the FT, news of the breach sent the shares of Capital One down 5.9% – a big move but not massive. This suggests to us that some investors are starting to view these breaches and the subsequent costs and fines, as just being a “cost of doing business”.
This approach may end up being risky. In the US, there have been increasing calls for more regulation of the way financial institutions protect their customers data Credit agencies must change how they manage data. Some commentators have drawn parallels with the European GDPR structure, where penalties of up to 4% of global turnover (up to E20m) can be imposed for breaches in processes around how client data is handled EU GDPR rules. In addition, much larger fines, such as the notice of intent to fine BA for a large data breach in 2018 ICO to fine BA £183m.
Consumers are increasingly looking to transact online – as more industries go digital, especially via the cloud, this is an issue that is going to take up more investor attention.

Capital One Stock Price

My Take On The US Equity Markets For The Week Of 8/5/19

August 4, 2019 Published by timm

This past week, Fed Powell cut rates…as expected. Markets will typically rally after a rate cut due to lower borrowing cost for companies, translating into higher profits. And we did get a rally, until Trump twitted an additional 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 million of imports from China. That twit alone lead to a 700 pt reversal in the Equity Markets and the stocks closed at a level not seen since late June.

S&P 500 – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Price fell back into a daily demand on Friday. Although price reacted to the zone, I don’t know if there are enough buyers to take out the sellers. The zone is no longer fresh and the chart suggests price will fall further down to 2890.

DOW Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

There is a major support/resistance line band near 21000.

I think there is more downside risk as I’m looking for price to fill the gap and react to the daily demand at 21000.

Nasdaq – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Daily demand is about 200 points lower.

However, on the 4 hr hour chart, there is a 4 hr daily demand that I would of taking long, but it was a Friday and I didn’t want price to potential gap against me on Sunday. So going into Monday, if prices hold, after I see some potential strength, I will look to go long on a pull back on a 15 min chart.

NOTE: the better 4 hr demand zone is lower because it represents more of a discount and embedded within a daily demand zone.

Russell 2000 – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Prices remain sideways, the only way to play the Russell is to play the extremes as indicated on the 4 hr chart.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Germany expanding digitisation with the new Digital Care Act

August 4, 2019 Published by mr.cryptolemon

Germany
expanding digitisation with the new Digital Care Act (Health Europa)

Germany has introduced the new Digital Care Act, which builds upon the 2016 ‘E Health Act’ that focused on developing information and communication technology in healthcare, particularly in the form of ‘electronic health cards’ and ‘electronic patient files’.
The new Digital Care Act will enable doctors to prescribe health apps, the cost of which, under certain conditions, will be reimbursed by German statutory health insurances.
Additionally, the German Act that currently prohibits the advertising for remote consultations will be amended, and any planned regulations of the introduction of the ‘electronic patient file’ have been removed, in order to facilitate its launch at the turn of the year 2020/2021.

Analysis and Comments

The electronic health card serves as an insurance card for people with statutory health insurance, while the electronic patient file (which hasn’t been built yet) is a further development of the card.
The file will enable statutory health-insured people to access a broad range of medical information such as, for example, findings, diagnoses, therapy measures, treatment reports, and vaccine history.
A separate privacy law governing the sensitive health data that is to be recorded in the electronic patient file is due to come into effect in January 2021.
Ultimately, the new law simply recognises the fact that patients have already been using health apps of various kinds, and stresses Germany’s intent to introduce digital services such as the electronic patient records as soon as possible.
Australia recently introduced a similar patient file called ‘My Health Record’, which apparently not only many Australians have opted out of, but is currently often empty (i.e. not being used as information is not being shared in a meaningful way between all parts of the system).