A quick post to end off the week – let’s take a look at what the major Stores of Value are up to.
Gold and Bitcoin are my two favourite Stores of Value. Many people seem to believe that you should hold either one or the other – I believe that diversification is safer and better. It’s always nice to gain value, but a Store of Value should HOLD value as a primary characteristic, and gain value as a secondary one.
I know that property is also seen as a good store of value, but property rights are not universal, in some places property can be a risky investment. Ask Zimbabwean farmers how secure property is as a Store of Value.
After a quick rise at the end of last month, Bitcoin has spent the week counter-correcting, over-compensating and generally just consolidating. There are evidently many new investors in the market and their weak hands are predictably scared by “sudden” rises. It is amusing to watch how shocked mainstream reporters seem by the “extreme volatility” of Bitcoin – or as more experienced crypto investors would call it: “the norm”.
At around $11400 at the time of writing, I consider Bitcoin to still be suffering the effects of a little FUD after it’s recent rise and subsequent fall. I believe it is trading at a lower price than it should be, and I expect it to recover about $1100 – $1200 over the next few days as it makes its way back to the median mid-term trendline. That trendline runs along the 0.382 diagonal Fib and is indicated by the dashed line on the chart below:
After an up and down week, Gold looks to be ending on a bit of a low note and may well close below $1400. This is no cause for alarm. Gold has managed to hold the majority of its mid-June gains and is looking rather bullish. Looking at the chart we can see that it appears to be forming a bull flag after its climb. A bull flag is a continuation pattern and indicates that gold is likely to continue its climb. The dashed orange lines are the bull flag and the solid yellow lines are the limits of the converging triangle that Gold has now conclusively broken out from.
The very thin dashed line is an interesting one and something which I only added to my chart yesterday: it’s a line running parallel to Gold’s previous climb. If Gold can once again climb like it did from 2000 to 2013, then that little dashed line is the path that it will follow: standby for possible $2000/oz Gold in November 2021. See the zoomed out chart below:
For those who may be curious: that means $5000/oz Gold in June 2027…
After a week of ups and downs, I’m looking forward to seeing Bitcoin climb again soon. The media is speaking about Bitcoin much more than ever before. The mass media gets almosteverything wrong, but the exposure is still good. For the foreseeable future the altcoins will probably continue to suffer. Eventually the new money will find the likes of Ethereum, Litecoin etc, and then finally trickle down into increasingly smaller projects. For now it’s probably best not to turn your BTC into altcoins (which are NOT as good at storing value!).
Should BTC fail to climb for some reason, then it shouldn’t drop lower than the long-term trendline, now sitting at just over $10000 (which is also a psychological support level). That trendline is depicted by the thin dotted line on the BTC chart.
Ignore the media reports that try to state reasons for the recent increase in the prices of BTC and Gold. Once again, they miss the big picture and focus on stupid short-term issues like the Trade War or Zuckerberg’s pseudo-crypto. The big picture – as you know – is that fiat economies and the politically correct, liberal, yet despotic governments that support them are slowly losing public support as people wise up to their trickery and failures. If there’s one thing I would NOT store value in now then it is fiat based assets!
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
~ Bit Brain