The Sunday Crypto Recap -Down the Rabbit Hole 60

With the year coming to a close there’s lots to reflect on. Did price – rocket as hoped -no it did not. Is that a problem for the health of the cryptosphere as a whole – no – not at all. 2020 may also flatter to deceive but in the long-run, there’s much to look forward to.


Picks of the Week

Once again it’s hard to select just a few items to highlight. Perhaps if you only check out one thing it should this top 100 figures in crypto. If you can stretch to two then this thread on Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ feature is well worth your time.


Twitter

BTC as an NFL team – who knew?:
https://twitter.com/AlexIlten/status/1205693922342834178

Dan Hedl refutes ‘Satoshi’s Vision’:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488

BTC lows have a trend of some sort (2019 figure yet to be decided):
https://twitter.com/themooncarl/status/1203971458487275520

Blockchain as disruptor across a wide range of sectors:
https://twitter.com/MarshallHayner/status/1204507375757152263

In defense of The Block (recommended):
https://twitter.com/hongkim__/status/1204617082005905411

On Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/udiWertheimer/status/1206684805175398400

From one extreme to the other (recommended;
https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/1205104637310914565

On central bank and state approaches to digital currencies (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1205438393145942016

On value and belief:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1206321498127917056

What is ‘useful’ in life is rarely simple:
https://twitter.com/shl/status/1204799385646665728


Articles

A who’s who of crypto (highly recommended):
https://cryptoweekly.co/100/

Why it’s early days for crypto (recommended):
https://markhelfman.com/2019/12/13/why-nobody-else-cares-about-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrency/

It’s prediction time:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/biserdimitrov/2019/12/11/what-are-the-top-10-blockchain-predictions-for-2020/#73e59554d395

Gas flaring and BTC:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/why-bitcoin-mining-is-being-touted-as-a-solution-to-gas-flaring

Binance didn’t become a dominant player through luck (recommended):
https://decrypt.co/11327/the-inside-story-of-binance-explosive-rise-to-power

Comparing Visa and lightning:
https://medium.com/galoymoney/visa-and-lightning-how-do-they-compare-1f4d89bdbbaf

Is KYC/AML really so bad?:
https://medium.com/exmo-official/everybody-is-freaking-out-about-the-5amld-is-mandatory-verification-as-scary-as-it-seems-6ccd2f92bb7d

So that was 2019 (recommended):
https://brukhman.substack.com/p/this-was-a-year-of-steady-infrastructural


Podcast

Larry Cermak of the Block on crypto (highly recommended but skip frequent Ads):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/larry-cermak-block-on-what-90-bitcoin-trading-is-for/id1347049808?i=1000459488613


YouTube

A brief review of BTC price action for 2019 (in terms of Elliott wave theory):


2020 looking good for BTC? (highly recommended despite light-hearted style):


Chainlink overview (recommended for research but strong pro Chainlink bias here):


Browser ‘incognito mode’ isn’t as secret as you may think:


A bullish take on gold by a long-time market participant:

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/the-kaplan-doctrine-conservation-preservation-and-value?


Infographics

Early December snapshot of key BTC mine related metrics (link also leads to an article on the subject):

https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-analysis-miners-squeezed-by-dropping-prices


Visualising BTC layers:

https://twitter.com/HillebrandMax/status/1205517645753257984/photo/1


Website / Utility

Excellent resource for tracking BTC mining/network metrics:

https://bravenewcoin.com/data-and-charts/assets/BTC/price


That’s a wrap for yet another fascinating week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Worst Stocks Of This Decade

Yesterday, I wrote a post about Facebook. Mark Zuckerberg was onto something in his dorm room at Harvard before he dropped out to focus on Facebook. The company went public in 2012, dropped 50%, switch their focus to mobile and the stock price hasn’t looked back. If one invested $1000 in Facebook during the IPO, you would be up over $5000 or a 500% ROI.

But all that is glitter is not gold. “All that glitters is not gold” is an aphorism stating that not everything that looks precious or true turns out to be so. This can be applied to just about any experience in life. It could also be applied to the stock market.

So the worst stocks of the decade go to:

  1. Apache. Ten-year performance: -78%
  2. Freeport-McMoRan. Ten-year performance: -68%
  3. Devon Energy. Ten-year performance: -66%
  4. The Mosaic Company. Ten-year performance: -65%
  5. CenturyLink. Ten-year performance: -63%
  6. Kraft Heinz. Ten-year performance: -56%
  7. Perrigo. Ten-year performance: -54%
  8. Under Armour. Ten-year performance: -54%
  9. Occidental Petroleum. Ten-year performance: – 51%
  10. Schlumberger. Ten-year performance: -31%

Now if you know these companies, 40% of the companies on the list were in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas sector (aqua block) was the worst performing sector this year.

Source

  1. Technology: 48%
  2. Communication: 32%
  3. S&P 500: 31%
  4. Financials: 31%
  5. Industrials: 28%
  6. Staples: 27%
  7. Discretionary: 27%
  8. Real Estate: 26%
  9. Materials: 22%
  10. Health Care: 20%
  11. Energy: 10%

And Energy compared to the SPY has under-performed going back for five years.

Now the Dow Dogs involves buying the ten stocks with the highest yields among the thirty in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of each year then holding them until the end of the next year. I don’t know what they call the worst stocks of the decade and potentially hold them for 10 years. But that’s what the Smart Money is doing.

Over the last several weeks, I have been posting about the bullishness going on in the oil and gas industry by way of the Smart Money buying up assets. In particular Sam Zell, Steven Cohen, Ken Griffin and Ray Dalio, all billionaires are buying distressed oil assets in the US.

I have to start looking at this sector as well. Besides that’s the premise of my trading edge, follow the Smart Money. I’m feeling the trade that Ray Dalio bought more of. Ray didn’t become wealthy by buying asset at high prices. Recently Ray’s hedge fund bought an additional 1,177,026 shares to the fund, increasing his stake to over 2.5 million shares.

EQT Corporation operates as a natural gas production company in the United States. It produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil. EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. with its asset base located in the heart of the Appalachian Basin with a focus in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.

I would like to see price close above $13 as confirmation that price will continue to rise.

I thought EQT Corp was a Master Limited Partnership, but they aren’t, so don’t they pay much dividends. Thus, I’m not interested in own the stock, but look what I just found. The Smart Money already bought LEAP options going out to January of 2021. So best believe I will be buying some options on Monday.

Look at that, went from taking about the worst stocks of the decade to wanting to get in the worst sector of decade on Money.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.