The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 57

While it remains to be seen if we are heading lower, it’s been another bountiful week in terms of crypto content. Despite a number of edits, this week’s recap is heaving with interesting/informative material – from discussions of the role of crypto journalism to a balanced analysis of the effect of leverage trading on BTC’s price.


Picks of the Week

This Tweetstorm delving into ‘news’ in a Chinese context. In addition, this in-depth examination of the next BTC halving and this defense of crypto-journalism are standouts. Finally, this lengthy interview with Anton Antonopoulos is an excellent investment of your time.


Twitter

A defense of crypto journalism even in an imperfect world:
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1198375846240759808

Crypto tribalism serves no-one (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/cburniske/status/1199465254511611904

Patience will serve crypto well (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/KelvinK06741463/status/1200254971834335233

EOS REX an update by Investing with a difference (highly recommended for EOS investors):
https://twitter.com/crypto_iwad/status/1199202221453238274

A call to clean up EOS governance by removing some clear bad-actors:
https://twitter.com/eosnewyork/status/1199813240307568641

Context on news as it emerges from China (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/truthurtm/status/1198623616377556992

A critique of Eth’s path to scaling/improvement (highly recommended for balance):
https://twitter.com/bramcohen/status/1198787471175106560

Are you prepared to wait for a crypto revival?
https://twitter.com/CryptoNekoZ/status/1197225252499030016

On discussion and reflecting on your positions:
https://twitter.com/MiguelCuneta/status/1196652694733127680

How Chainlink strives to tackle data feeds and validation:
https://twitter.com/ChainLinkGod/status/1198446995246964736

On margin trading (recommended):
https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status/1199696686911807488


Articles

Bitcoin as a means to escape a developing Orwellian system (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/a-cashless-future-is-a-dystopia-without

An analysis of unrealised BC profit and loss:
https://insights.glassnode.com/dissecting-bitcoins-unrealised-on-chain-profit-loss/

Investing in Bitcoin (recommended):
https://medium.com/@byrnehobart/investing-in-bitcoin-the-asset-allocators-perspective-70c4aa4f221c

Insights into the next Bitcoin halving (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halving-everything-you-need-to-know-4573dc5b528e

It’s been a brutal retracement in recent months:
https://eng.ambcrypto.com/xrps-drawdown-nears-all-time-low-btc-drawdowns-by-65/

How many BTC are in fact, lost?
https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/coin-metrics-state-of-the-network-d2e

Another week another exchange hack yet institutional investors seem untroubled (article predates UpBit hack):
https://cointelegraph.com/news/not-your-keys-92-of-institutional-investors-keep-crypto-on-exchanges

Let’s not underestimate the importance of journalists to the cryptosphere:
https://fortune.com/2019/11/27/crypto-needs-journalists-more-than-it-wants-to-admit/

Mimblewimble may have a privacy issue (somewhat technical but recommended):
https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/breaking-mimblewimble-privacy-model-84bcd67bfe52

Addressing EOS CPU congestion by Dan Larimer:
https://medium.com/@bytemaster/eosio-resource-allocation-reimagined-f219e8d489c


Podcast

The founder of Messari talks crypto:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/messaris-ryan-selkis-bringing-radical-transparency/id1438148082?i=1000456825800


YouTube

Exploring a bearish scenario for BTC IN 2020:


An enlighting discussion of the pros and cons of BTC leverage trading and derivatives:


A wide-ranging interview with Anton Antonopoulos focusing on BTC (highly recommended):


Despite the odd choice of interview location – a surprisingly comprehensive Q&A with the CEO of crypto lending platform CRYPTO.COM (recommended):


Excellent discussion of recent economic data emerging from China (dates to Oct 1st – highly recommended):


Infographic

The Lighting Network showing signs of slowing growth/use:

https://twitter.com/spencernoon/status/1197555256818884608/photo/1


Website / Utility

A Bitcoin advocate beginning to build a fine body of work:

https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/


A whale of a week (I almost certainly learned a thing or two). As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.


KNC technical analysis

KNC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has formed a double floor pattern as a sign of reversal of trend on the diagonal support, indicated within the chart above by the diagonal dark blue, in the chart I have enclosed by an oval yellow series of candles prior to the current candlestick with strong volume, the best entered was in the zone of demand located at 0.00001870 indicated within the above chart by the lower horizontal black color, the current candle is finding resistance in the supply zone located within the price range of 0.00002461 – 0.00002560, if we achieve the closing above that zone, we should have a next impulse towards our first profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341 indicated within the above chart by the two upper horizontal black color.

KNC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has maintained a correct movement over the area of demand, the current candle has tested the area of supply, we need a close above and confirmation to continue above, otherwise, the price could fall before the possible break, we see in the previous movement as the price has tested the resistance of the figure indicated within the chart above by the diagonal red color, this was a good confirmation that pushed this series of candles to the testing of the price range of 0. 00002461 – 0.00002560.

In conclusion, KNC also presents a bullish scenario that should have no trouble outbidding and moving towards our profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341, the current movement could continue to be driven without regression, but it would be advisable to wait for the closing of the current candle in 1D and see the reaction of the price in 4H to confirm the next movement, we must be very attentive to that price action not to stay out or to find our best entry position, the price must keep the diagonal dark blue that has been working as a support to have continuation of the opposite, the price would go in search of a new LL, always remember to place their stop loss in each operation to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Dollar Tree Got Cut To Fifty Leaves

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates through two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00.

Dollar Tree is the largest dollar chain with over 15, 000 stores.  Dollar Tree has been successful to this point because of their perceived value.  Essentially you pay for what you get and the items are sold in a smaller unit size.  But they have done some clever things as well.  They have kept the items they sell to a minimum, so they have a high inventory turns and stores do required a whole lot footprint and they sell a ton of private label items, which helps their margins.

To compete with the likes of Walmart, they purchased Family Dollar in 2015 to expand their customer base. Dollar Tree caters to people who live in the suburbs, while Family Dollar caters to people who live in urban.   However, Family Dollar really never did their homework prior to the purchase.   Family Dollar customers have a lower income than their suburban counterparts and less likely to make impulse buys because of their budget.  That one major difference between the two customer base has hurt the earnings ever since the acquisition.

Dollar Tree finally recognized the bad business choice they made in 2015 and have since closed over 500 Family Dollar stores in 2019 and will re-brand another 1000 Family Dollar stores to Dollar Tree stores.

Dollar Tree reported earnings on Tuesday. Dollar Tree stock fell 10% on Tuesday after the company posted disappointing earnings results and gave guidance that underwhelmed Wall Street. The trade war between the US and China and the tariffs has hurt margins due to sourcing a large chunk of their merchandise from China. In addition, issues at its Family Dollar brand are pinching the company’s results. Dollar Tree posted earnings per share of $1.08, below expectations for $1.13. Its revenue of $5.75 billion narrowly beat expectations for $5.74 billion.

So where is price heading next, lets go to the charts? Price is clearly in an uptrend, but it would of been nice if prices on the monthly chart closed above the most recently high. Thus, this lowers the probability that price will make a new higher high.

However, the uptrend is an uptrend, until it not. Thus, the chart suggest to go long at the daily demand at $85.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Click the link below to listen to the 64th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.



External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000458148587

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-qkd49-c95a51


Transcript

Deciphering
China’s Blockchain Play Part 3 of 5 – The Domestic Scenario

Welcome to
Two Minute Crypto. This week focuses on the likely implications of China’s apparent
‘embrace’ of blockchain for ‘local’ projects. On the face of it – China’s ‘blockchain
good’ stance would seem incredibly bullish for home-grown initiatives. High-profile
chains such as NEO, Ontology and Tron spring to mind. With state sanction and access
to market of over a billion people – the outlook is great, right?

Unfortunately,
the reality is far less glamorous. First and foremost, let’s once again return
to the purpose of blockchain as envisaged by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) –
control. This and only this lies at the base of any interest in crypto. It
follows that any blockchain system green-lit by the CCP will be centralized and
profoundly so. Doubtless, a veneer of independence may be touted but the belief
that the ruling party would simply step aside because blockchain will be good
for the economy is so naïve as to verge on foolish.

The Beijing
model is of blockchain as an additive tool of authoritarian control. As an
investor, this fundamentally undermines the value proposition seemingly
afforded by the rollout of blockchain in China.

Investors face
the reality of being entirely outside looking in with few if any avenues for
good, reliable information. This opacity applies equally for domestic investors
unless, of course, they have high-level ties to the party.  In practice, this means that picking a winner
is all but impossible. The fundamentals of a chain are entirely irrelevant to whether
or not it will be utilized by the CCP. Comparing NEO’s node network or Dapp
ecosystem to Tron or Ontology etc. is a fruitless exercise…..fundamentals will
not be the deciding factor of whether or not a home-grown project receives
state backing.

To be clear,
those that do gain state endorsement will almost certainly see a run-up in
valuation but you as an investor will in no way be privy to that process. ‘Sources
say’ reports from the crypto media are entirely worthless in this regard – they
are based on hearsay and all but certainly mere speculative nonsense. You will
know when the CCP wants you to know.

Of course, short-term speculation on state intentions do indeed provide opportunities.  It’s not unreasonable to assume that local high-profile projects will attract speculative investments as the market attempts to ‘pick the winners’. With this in mind, I personally hold small positions in both NEO and Ontology. However, these are not decade-spanning investments. I intend to scale out if and when given the opportunity to do so.  

Regardless of current profile, once the market in general catches on that blockchain will be utilized as a tool of state repression and little more most domestic chains will become far less appealing through the simple act of comparison with their decentralized peers. Certainly, some chains will become attractive as they gifted oversight over certain areas of the economy such as maintaining medical records, etc. but ascertaining which projects will end up in such positions is not simply the outcome of a reasoned assessment of project fundamentals and market need – it is at the whim of the party.

Sure, a few
of the chosen will accrue long-term value assuming they tow the line but that
will be a state decision the market will have no say-in whatsoever. State
monopolies can be immensely valuable, but retail investors rarely reap the
rewards they offer. This is simply not a game worth playing in the long-run.

Over the
coming years – much better opportunities will likely be found in crypto
projects that operate without direct government control and supervision.

Thanks for listening.


Series Links

ALGO technical analysis

ALGO seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candle has managed to push strongly testing the area of supply located at 0.00004079 indicated in the chart above by the horizontal red color, if the current candle ends up being bullish we would have our second HL above the support indicated by the diagonal dark blue, this would increase the odds of a next bullish impulse, the 1D demand zone is located within the price range of 0.00003254 – 0.00003415, indicated in the graph above by the two lower horizontal black color, if the price in its retreat manages to hold that point, we could see a next movement in search of the breakage of the supply zone mentioned above.

ALGO seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see that the strong momentum was achieved by the closing of the previous candle, however, has not achieved the closing above the area of supply, therefore, we could see some retreat into the area of demand forming a triple floor on the diagonal as a strong bullish signal for the bulls, this would move the price to 0.00004079 in search of the break, within the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price could follow during the movement within the figure of the upward triangle.

In conclusion, ALGO shows signs of a possible continuation of the upward movement, the best time to have entered this momentum was in the support located at 0.00002117, however, the price has already formed two HL and we have a correct test of the area of supply, therefore, the probabilities of a close break are very high, it is advisable to wait for our entry between 0.00003254 – 0.00003415, however, any movement could occur in the next candles, we must be very attentive to the price action not to stay out of the next movement, the price should keep the diagonal, otherwise, the price could form a new LL, always remember to place their stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Need to let off some steam:

I wasn’t going to write this as a full post, but while typing it I realised that my experience may be able to help others.

For the past two years I’ve been working on a “secret” project: helping a friend devise a revolutionary new – let’s call it a “communications system” – with the sole aim of vastly improving global understanding and inter-person relationships. He’s a little eccentric and paranoid (“little” being a nice way of saying “extremely”). I was to help him run the entire enterprise, coordinating global teams and leading operations. We’ve done substantial groundwork, thanks in no small part to my (entirely voluntary and unpaid) contributions. Now, with funding finally secured and only weeks away from launching the first modules of our dream into reality, he suddenly turns paranoid against ME!

Bit Brain being Bit Brain, I bow to nobody and I DON’T take kindly to seemingly benevolent friends who turn out to be tyrants when the brown stuff hits the fan! It’s hard to tell what’s worse: that he couldn’t see why I was angry; that he tried to turn everything around on me; or that he obviously believes that his conduct, though demonstrably heinous, is beyond reproach!

Needless to say, today marked the end of my involvement with his project – I can’t work with a lunatic who doesn’t trust my capabilities and judgement. I can’t work with someone who takes exception to me fighting governments and spreading the truth (which I do everywhere), because it may make his company “look bad”. That doesn’t even make sense considering what he wants his company to ultimately do! It’s terribly sad, he completely lacks the skills and experience to work with a dynamic team, he stands zero chance of success without my help. The project is a good one (if rather ambitious), but it deserves a shot and I was willing to do my very best to give it that shot.

Now, all is lost, thanks solely to his suddenly inane behaviour.

It’s been a rather hard blow to take: I was keen on the challenge, I really wanted to help make the world a better place, I could sure have used a little cash flow too (though it was never about money) – this could have been revolutionary.

It’s a bitter pill to swallow, especially in the wake of watching well-intentioned crypto projects get hit so hard by the crypto winter. But I guess that’s life, you don’t get to choose how it plays out. So I’ll be doing what I always do: get back up, dust myself off, learn lessons from the experience and just keep on trying my best to make a difference wherever I can. I accept that the scope my control is limited; I do what I can and what I think is right, the rest is in God’s hands.

People are struggling; just as I was about to fall asleep last night, I checked my phone and spotted one of those “help my, my life is too much for me and I’m overwhelmed!” posts on a friend’s Facebook wall – maybe you’ve seen a similar one yourself. I immediately reacted to it and offered her a listening ear, sometimes all people need is somebody to talk to. It’s not the first time something like has happened, and it surely won’t be the last.

Remember that everyone you meet is fighting some sort of battle, don’t be fooled by their positive Facebook statuses and happy looking photos on Instagram showing their perfect lives. Two years ago I reacted to another of those Facebook posts. I tried hard to help a friend of mine who was going through a bad patch. Not long after that he committed suicide. It’s a tragedy and a loss that I will never forget, but at least I can look myself in the mirror and know that I tried, that I made a concerted effort to prevent it. I keep a screenshot of his final message to me, it simply says “Thank you.” I still shed a few tears whenever I see it. 😢 You can see it up at the top of this post.

Just imagine how I would feel if I hadn’t tried!

Take care of yourselves ladies and gentlemen, and take care of each other too. It is often when we don’t consider one another and we act selfishly that conflict occurs. I always tell my wife that our marriage will remain rock solid as long as we both keep putting one another first.

Okay, let’s get my chin off the floor and see where life takes me from here.
In the wise words of Cumbawamba’s “Tubthumping” (yes I’m THAT old!):

“I get knocked down,
But I get up again,
You are never gonna keep me down.”

Yours in friendship

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:







Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)

I meant to type this post on Monday, but I was WAY too busy trading. Yesterday my usually quiet family suddenly became super-communicative – ruining my chances of getting a proper post out.

However, here IS a post at last. I believe this post is important to write because – as I often lament – the media is littered with ABSOLUTELY CLUELESS crypto analysis (some purposefully so, some real). I need to set the record straight and to remind people (in the words of the immortal Douglas Adams): “Don’t Panic!”

Background (important)

I need to stress that what has happened to BTC during the last few days is:

  1. Perfectly normal
  2. Expected

If you did not expect it, or if you don’t think it is normal, then I can only shake my head at you and make the universal disappointed clicking noises “tsk tsk”, because it means that you did not listen to Uncle Bit Brain. Maybe next time you will…

When reading and interpreting crypto predictions:

It is important to remember that crypto is inherently unpredictable and that even the best analysts (like me) can’t predict short-term events with a certainty of more than about 60%, even when they are very certain. With that in mind, remember that we WILL get things wrong and that our predictions DO change over time. But also note that the more long-term a prediction is, the higher the chances of it being right. It sounds counter-intuitive, but I can predict BTC prices in 2022 with a much higher certainty than what I can predict BTC prices next week.

Confirmations are vitally important in this game. My regular modus operandi is that usually see a pattern emerge, I wait a day or two for initial confirmation, I publish my idea and then I confirm it with increasing certainty as price movements tie in with my predictions. The confirmation process usually requires the fine-tuning of my predictions or, if they are not working out, abandoning my predictions altogether.

Now that you have the background, let’s look at BTC:

BTC

I have long been predicting the movements of BTC which we are seeing now. I’ve been Tweeting about them, blogging about them and displaying my ideas both graphically and in text form.

With this post I aim to set your mind at rest by showing just how far back these predictions go, and also showing you (once again) why you should always listen to Bit Brain…

To keep this post of realistic length, I’ve limited it mainly to graphical Twitter posts, with a few blog charts dotted in between.

The first time I correctly identified and wrote about the BTC descending channel was on 23 July. That’s really not bad (if I do say so myself); it was only this past weekend (four months later) that I first noticed most other analysts at last referring to a descending channel. Some still haven’t realised it… Here is my 23 July chart (from THIS post):

Price movements in early August confirmed the channel, and my faith in it grew (and allowed me to fine-tune it). This chart is from the 5 August post BTC – Beginning of the Week Analysis:

Further mid-August confirmations as BTC rode the top of the channel lower:

At this stage of the game I was still rather optimistic about price, not realising how long the channel would last (it’s now 5 months old, and will probably last for about another month).

September brought us another channel confirmation (with the possibility of turning it into a pennant):

This late September chart is the kind of information that I buy on: a well confirmed trend indicating that prices are relatively low, but can be expected to recover significantly at a later stage. I feel very comfortable placing buy orders based on charts like this:

…so confident that I can even risk missing out on mid-channel dips in favour of better opportunities later (not recommended).

October movements (the next two charts are from THIS post of 24 October) allowed me to modify my channel and to differentiate “Mean Highs” from “Absolute Highs”. Note that my channel has not needed to be modified since then.

Very importantly; October gave me an indicator that the channel was a long-term one and that I shouldn’t expect it to end before the end of 2019. That is still my current thinking.

When BTC dipped through a smaller local channel on 8 November, I was very confident that we would soon be heading down to the bottom of the main channel again. Once again I set buy orders with supreme confidence (note that “65%+”!) and realistic target prices.

Expecting the price drop, I pencilled in a rough sketch of an expected BTC price trajectory. It’s still on my charts today and I’m still using it as a realistic estimate of what may happen.

Which brings us to today:

Everything that is happening is ABSOLUTELY NORMAL and expected. I’m still perfectly happy with the channel and am confident in its long history of predictions and adjustments.

The keen-eyed may have observed that I have just placed my good old diagonal Fib levels on the chart – I believe that they may help a bit in predicting minor resistance/support levels while this channel remains active.

The medium-term chart gives better perspective and introduces a very interesting possibly coincidence/possible important indicator: the convergence of the bottom of the channel, a long-term support/resistance line and the long-term BTC price support line. No I did not cook the books, the lines just worked out that way. The chart after this one better illustrates where the latter two lines come from.

I think there is a very strong possibility that BTC will receive considerable support from the (white dashed) support/resistance line, as well as from the long-term base trendline. that means that BTC should continue to follow my rough little yellow prediction line, and that we should hit 2020 headed in a positive direction.

It also means that we may dip further during the next couple of weeks as the bottom of the channel continues towards lower lows. I expect a final trend reversal in the vicinity of 16 December.

Remember:

  • It’s not about catching the very bottom of the dip, it’s about getting in at a good enough price. I would rather buy a few hundred dollars away from the bottom of the dip, than miss it altogether.
  • Many excellent altcoins are very near to All Time Lows. DON’T FORGET THE ALTCOINS! As I Tweeted yesterday: if you don’t buy them now, then when will you buy them?
  • Trade with your head, not with your heart.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Uber Isn’t A Buy At This Point

Uber’s story starts more than a decade ago.  Travis Kalanick and Garret Camp were leaving a tech conference in Paris when they couldn’t get a cab. Initially, the idea was for a timeshare limo service that could be ordered via an app with Garret eventually buying the domain name UberCab.com.

Uber was born in 2009 and New York became its test market with three cars in 2010, with the official launch taking place in San Francisco in May.  Travis eventually came on board as CEO in December 2010 and with time grew to become the highest valued private startup company in the world.

Like many startups, there seems to be a culture of almost “anything goes.”  However, if those startups go grow and mature, it eventually catches up with you.  Uber was a perfect example of that.  In February of 2017, a former female Uber engineer blasted the company for its sexist culture in a 3,000-word blog post citing the culture as hostile, sexist and offensive. The post went viral and resulted in some upper managers being let go and/or resigning.  But that was just the start as an investigation, called the Holder Investigation, soon was underway.  The investigation resulted in over 40 recommendations intended to improve the culture.

Image result for Kalanick Dara Khosrowshahi,

Kalanick stepped down as CEO and two months later announced that Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Expedia (EXPE), would take over.  But it was too late, Uber’s valuation declined from $70 billion to $48 billion.  Kalanick did a great job stabilizing the culture and perception of Uber in the financial markets, so in May Uber made it IPO debut with shares set to price at $44 to $50, given the company an immediate $80 or $90 billion market cap.

In 2018, Uber’s revenue reached $11.3 billion for the year, up 43% from 2017, but encountered operating losses of $3 billion.  They even expressed at one point that they might never generate a profit.

Since Uber went public, the stock has declined by near 33% due to concerns of competition and profitability.  In additional, the lockout period expiring was last week, means that insiders, including early investors and employees, are free to sell shares.  Kalanick sold 53.24 million shares worth roughly $1.46 billion. 

So is all the bad news now priced into the stock price, well some folks on Wall Street think so?

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) shares opened sharply higher during Friday’s session before giving up some ground by mid-day. The move came after Stifel upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy with a price target of $34.00 per share.

Analyst Scott Devitt believes that Uber is turning a corner, with signs of sustainable improvements in the fundamentals. He adds that the current valuation offers a more reasonable entry point for interested investors.

Despite these concerns, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler said that Uber was one major announcement away from a positive narrative change heading into the new year.

Source

Now maybe Ube is two major announcements away from a positive narrative change.  Today, London stripped Uber of its license to operate in the city, citing the company wasn’t doing enough to keep passengers safe.  London is Uber’s largest city in Europe with Europe accounting for about 10% of the company’s total revenue.

Personally, I wouldn’t have bite on the upgrade, as I thought it was premature based on what I was seeing on the charts as the chart suggests Uber isn’t a buy until the weekly demand at $34 is breached.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 11/25/19 – Is Thailand Cutting Rates Next???

Exotic pairs usually
consist of a major currency alongside a thinly traded currency or an
emerging-market economy currency, so they are a lot less liquid and prone to
“slippage” which also means they have wider spreads than the majors and the
crosses.  Because of this, exotic pairs
don’t get a lot of shine.

The Thailand currency is
call the Baht. And as strong as the US dollar has been against all the major
currencies this year, the Baht has been stronger than the US dollar. The Thai
baht hit a six-year high against the dollar in September which is making
Thailand exports have become more expensive.  In additional, relationship between Thailand
and China has also left the Thailand business in a bind due to the devaluation
of the yuan in August making Thailand
exports less competitive.  Ultimately
this is hurting the Thailand economy.  Business
leaders are now urging the their government to prioritize curbing or reducing
the value of the baht.

The Bank of Thailand is prepared to use monetary policy if economic growth disappoints, its Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said.

“In the short term, we are ready to use monetary policy if needed,” Veerathai said Saturday during a visit to Laos. “We are ready to act if growth fails to meet our expectations.”

At the same time, he cautioned against taking the benchmark interest rate below zero, saying that “the key rate shouldn’t be negative, as it will create lots of structural problems.”

Veerathai said the central bank is concerned about baht strength and is monitoring the situation closely as the year-end approaches, because it’s a period that tends to have a high volume of foreign-exchange transactions.

Veerathai said inflation isn’t a big problem for Thailand at present but financial stability risk has become a challenge for monetary policy.

Source

So where is the Baht heading, lets go to the charts to find out?

Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 35.750 and monthly demand is at 29.000.

Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.

Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price on a pull back if price can to the daily supply at 30.90 with a target just above the top the of the monthly zone.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.