IOTA seen from the temporality of 1D we can see how the structure of candles during the previous LL formed a downward parallel channel where it has finally broken it up and tested correctly to then see the current bullish impulse of the current candle which has found resistance at 0.3161, the candle is forming a doji, a bearish signal by which we must prepare for a retreat to the nearest demand level located at 0.2716, the wick has already touched that point, however, we need a candlestick approach in order to determine if the price will continue to rise beyond resistance, in the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price should follow during its advance to our first target which is located within the price range of 0.3797 – 0.4034.
IOTA seen from the temporality of 1W we can see a broader view of the current price movement, in the image above we can see how the price has formed us an HL, marked on the chart with the diagonal trend of dark blue, after two candles bullish low volume, this week the candle has “shot” powerfully, the consolidation within this range has been long throughout this year, which gives us an indicator that in a short time we could see an upward break in the resistance of the figure we see in the graph, for this to happen we would have to mark an HH and a new HL above the resistance located at 0.3161, if this happens, the alarms on a much larger next bullish move will be very high, the next profit targets are indicated within the chart, with the second target located at 0.7202 and the third target located within the price range of 0.9348 – 1.0904.
In conclusion, the IOTA price has moved very well this week, it needs to stay above 0.2716 and above the diagonal support if we want to continue seeing a next bullish candlestick, otherwise the price could fall towards the area of possible pullbacks indicated in the 1W chart, the bullish possibilities are greater than the bearish ones, as we must always be attentive to the action of the price in 1D and 4H and look for the best entry, I also recommend to be attentive to the action of the BTC price, as the price position is not yet decided, so any jolt on the part of BTC would affect the whole market.
As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.
Please click the link below to listen to the 54th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.
What is a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO)?
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This installment of the Key Concepts Series examines Decentralized Autonomous Organizations or DAOs. On the EOS network, the same concept is described as a Decentralized Autonomous Community or DAC. As usual, the goal is to explain this crypto concept in as simple and succinct a manner as possible. Given the unavoidable complexity involved in explaining a DAO, I highly recommend you listen to this explanation at least twice.
A Decentralized Autonomous Community (DOA) is a collective of individuals co-operating in an online environment to run and support a system or network; that system being structured around rules encoded in the software or smart contracts on which it operates. In effect, a self-organizing, digitally operating social system. Each DAO will vary in terms of complexity, scale, and goals but they all share a few key qualities.
Blockchain and Smart Contract Based
Every DOA operates on top of a blockchain whose function
is to immutably and openly record all collective decisions and facilitate some
form of transaction or data transfer utilizing a token. The token is the blood
of the system, facilitating data validation, transfer, and storage. In addition, the moment by moment operation
of the organization is controlled by a set of smart contracts which execute
automatically once certain conditions are met on the network.
Distributed Decision Making
The bedrock of any DAO is the distribution of voting rights beyond a central authority. The whole idea is that the network is governed by the members who comprise it – it is a bottom up approach to running an organization. Exactly how this is implemented will vary from DAO to DAO. Some may have elected boards that rotate from time to time, others may involve all members in any decision which changes the network and everything in between. Nonetheless, the core goal is to spread authority through the group. Voting outcomes are then automatically enforced or carried out by the DAO’s smart contracts.
Code as Law
A DAO will operate within a set of encoded software rules. If A then B and so on. These rules cannot simply be changed by an individual. Indeed, the parameters of change will already be laid-out within the software or smart contracts themselves. For example, a two-thirds vote may be required to change core governance. The network itself prevents ‘hijacking’ of the project as a few individuals cannot easily aggregate power or network control into their own hands.
DAOs are not meant to be unalterable and through
member consensus may evolve but they cannot simply be re-purposed without that
consensus (member agreement as predefined in the smart contracts that operate
the DAO) first being achieved. Of course, if the smart contract itself is flawed
it may result in unintended consequences such as a hack or the lock-up of funds
as famously occurred on the original Ethereum network in 2016.
Transparency
Decisions in a DAO are recorded on the network and
access to that record is freely available. Who, what, where, when, why, and how
much are all immutably entered onto the ledger of that system.
The practical applications of DAOs and DACs are just
now being explored. In theory, large scale corporations could function through the
sophisticated interaction of smart contracts and distributed governance. At the
moment, it is in decentralized finance that DAOs seem to be making great
strides. Maker DAO a project running on the Ethereum Network is an example of a
fully functional decentralized autonomous business specializing in collateralized
crypto loans. On the EOS blockchain eosDAC is in the latter stages of rolling
out a Decentralized Autonomous Community service that will, in theory, allow
the hosting and setting up of DACs tailored to different needs – an operating
system for decentralized communities if you will.
The coming years will almost certainly see a great
expansion of this new collective organizational model. How stable or viable
they will turn out to be remains to be seen.
I doubt that many of you have studied “Strategy” as an academic subject. It’s hardly something used in the everyday life of most people.
But in military circles and in the upper echelons of civilian National Strategy, it does play an important role.
Before I relate strategies to cryptocurrencies, we need to level the playing field. When I say the word “strategy”, we need to all have a common understanding of what that means.
What is a “Strategy”?
Warfare is conducted at various levels. The three main levels are tactical, operational and strategic.
Tactical happens on the battlefield. Tactical decisions are made by unit commanders and their teams. The choice to use grenades instead of suppressive machine gun fire is a tactical one. The option of detaching a squad to flank an enemy that your platoon is fighting is a tactical one.
Operational decisions are made by those in charge of several fighting units. The operational commander would make decisions such as deploying the platoon to the battlefield in the first place. He would be given an objective and a variety of forces. How he (or she) employs those forces is an operational level consideration.
Strategic decisions are made by those who earn too much money and are too far away from the real action. Okay, that’s just me being facetious (but it’s still true). A strategy is an overarching plan encompassing all available forces. A strategy tells you how you are going to meet a specific goal, and what that goal is e.g. “repel Hussein’s invading forces from Kuwait”. At the national level you can also get “Grand Strategies” – which are basically very long-term goal that your shorter-term strategies align with. Don’t worry too much about Grand Strategies.
Ends, Ways and Means
In very simple terms, a strategy is comprised of three main things: Ends, Ways and Means.
If we are to apply a strategy to crypto, then we need to understand the relationship between these concepts.
Ends are the goals of strategies. As the name suggests, they are your desired endpoint. Once your ends have been achieved, your strategy has succeeded. Depending on what those ends are, your strategies may no longer even be required after reaching them.
Example: “To neutralise all enemy military forces in the Pacific theatre of war”.
Ways are the methods of achieving Ends. The Ways are the “How?”, “When?” and “Where?” – they are what you are going to do.
Example: “We will cut off fuel supplies to enemy air and naval assets in the Pacific, thereby causing them to run out of operationally deployable fighting forces over the period of the next month”.
Means are the tools used to execute the Ways. The means are the “Who” and the “What?” of the Ways.
Example: “Special forces will be deployed from submarines to destroy the enemy’s hardened underground fuel depots. Naval forces will destroy fuel refineries and pipelines from over the horizon. Air Force units will destroy fuel transport vehicles and ad hoc targets of opportunity”.
We can apply this to crypto.
Crypto Strategies
On the Grand Strategy level we can say that crypto exists to replace world money systems and to disrupt and replace the existing money/power dynamic. That’s way beyond what we as individuals can do. We all play a little part of that larger game, but it’s not what this post is about. Let’s rather look at whatyou can influence to a large degree, what You can do for Yourself.
So you’re a crypto investor, or a trader, or both. Perhaps you work for a crypto company, or perhaps you started your own crypto company. Maybe you just enjoy writing about it in blogs like the one you’re reading now, or maybe you watch adverts on Brave browser all day so that you can build up free BAT tokens and give tips to sites that depend on voluntary funding.
Whatever you do with crypto, it’s time to start asking yourself: “What’s my endgame?“
Why are you doing what you are doing? What is the logical conclusion? What are you trying to achieve? Where and when does it stop?
In other words: What are the Ends of your strategy?
Do you have them? Are they well defined? Do you know exactly what you want crypto to do for you?
Admission of guilt
I don’t have a proper crypto strategy!
I have broad crypto investing strategies. I have a few fairly well-defined goals which I aim to meet, but honestly, I lack that endpoint. I’m writing this today because when I realised this, I realised that others may be in the same boat.
A Crypto Strategy is NOT:
“I want to reach a total of 100 BTC by 2030” or “I want 1 million USD worth of crypto” or “I want to survive the fiat crash by investing in crypto”.
Why not?
Because cryptoISN’Tan End, it’s not even a Way; it’s a Means to an End.
You’ve heard the expression “means to an end” before? Now you know where it comes from.
Get a strategy
I was walking around my garden earlier today, playing with my dogs and enjoying relaxing outside under the clear blue sky. I was extremely content, but bothered because I knew that my contentment came from shutting out the many evils of the world that I am only too aware of.
For now I fight those evils daily. I have been very active in challenging my government this year: there is a long paper trail of me, both in my personal capacity and aligned with multiple civic groups, opposing injustices at every turn. Similarly, I try to fight the bigger international fight (in support of the Grand Strategy of crypto mentioned earlier), some of which you can see on this very blog or on my Twitter account.
But I’m just one man and I can’t do it alone. I realise that I am not doing it alone: many great people fight alongside me – some in small ways, some in big ways. You may be one of them. I won’t stay young forever. I also know (thanks to years of high stress military deployments) that my capacity to endure a high intensity struggle in a negative environment is finite.
In simple terms: I can’t do this forever.
At some stage I need to say that enough is enough, and hand the torch over to the next generation. I need to cash in my chips and leave the casino. I need to be able to sit in my garden and play with my dogs under the clear blue sky, while not worrying about the evils of the world.
But for now, I am still furiously playing the game. What I need to do next is to further align my daily activities with my desired end goal: I need to define the Ends of my strategy and work towards them.
Exactly how I do that will be my Ways. I can only firmly establish those once I know the Ends. I trust that my crypto investments will be the Means, or at least one of the Means I will use to execute my Ways.
The End State (Ends of the Strategy)
I may not have well defined end state to my strategy yet, but I know some of the characteristics that I want it to possess: financial freedom, a pleasant political and social environment in a country which embraces true liberty, a relaxed lifestyle in a safe environment, the ability to work on relationships rather than business and finances etc.
It may sound idyllic and a bit like a pipe dream, but it’s something to work towards. I might not find something that checks all the boxes, but at least those boxes give me a target to aim for.
For those who seek to form their own strategies: an example of a Way to achieve something like what I stated above could be: “reduce fiat holdings to a bare minimum” or “aim to build up 10 BTC in crypto” or one of those other things that I said are not a strategy in themselves.
Conclusion
Life is a journey, and crypto is a part of that journey. God willing, my journey will allow for a period of rest towards the end, a time when I can pull off the busy highway and spend a few years at my final destination in peace and quiet. I can’t tell if that will be possible, but I will do what I can to make that an eventual reality. That is my plan, my End, my strategy.
Until then, I will keep fighting the crypto (and other) battles. Evil triumphs when good men do nothing. If evil is ever going to triumph, then it’s going to have to go through me first. I still have a good couple of decades of fight left in me, before I retire and seek out my version of a Utopian little house with a white picket fence.
Advice time: if you are still young, plan for your future as if you were suddenly going to turn 80 tomorrow. You have no idea how fast time and ageing catches up with you. I did a pretty good job of planning for old age when I was still young, but even so I wish I had done more. Your generation has so much more available to it: electronic banking, broadband internet, cryptocurrencies, easily accessible trading options for precious metals/forex/etc – you can do a LOT more than I did if you start early!
Despite a very strong American and international business culture to the contrary, money is not everything. Money is not “success”! Money will NEVER make you happy. As long as you can lift yourself above the level of “financially struggling” (which can be very hard to do), you can be happy. Try to make a few clever investments while you are still young, so that money is no longer a worry when you are older. Then you can enjoy life.
Look at Warren Buffett: 89 years old, worth 84 Billion USD – but do you think he’s ever enjoyed his life? Do you think he’s ever stopped to smell the roses? I think he’s a miserable old sod, a greedy and small-minded man who cares far too much about wealth and not nearly enough about the things that matter. He’s too busy greedily hoarding his money to ever enjoy spending it! Don’t be like Warren.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
The month of September had been constructive for ETH. If you look at the chart you will see three positive things occurred with price.
Break of Down Trend (descending triangle)
As you can see from the blue down trend line when price pushed down to support in that 168 area it was open to hold and then push the descending line.
This led to a modest bounce before a retest.
Retesting of Support/Down Trend Line
After the modest little bounce, two things happened: price testes the support line and tested the down trendline, which both happen to be at about the same price.
Anytime you get a break of a trend, a successful retest of it is always welcomed and considered positive price action.
Higher Low Formed
After the retest price pushed higher into the mid 180s or so and then had a small pullback briefly dipping into the 170s. At which point price has pushed higher the past few days.
This is important because in order to have an uptrend you need to see price create higher lows. Which just got one now we need more.
Price needs to stay above 180 for this recent price action to keep it’s positive tone, in my opinion.
The next upside target would be around 200. We shall see what happens the rest of the week.
A ridiculous number of high-quality articles have crossed my path this week. I’ve included just a few. The opportunity to be challenged and engaged while exploring the mad, bad and sometimes sad world of crypto is not to be underestimated, it is truly a learner’s paradise – just keep that open mind and delve on!
One of the first websites to bring together BTC resources. Very sparse landing page but a deep reservoir of material here spanning BTC’s entire operational life (highly recommended):
This real-time representation of Bitcoin Cash v Bitcoin is supposed to show the transaction superiority of Bitcoin Cash but perhaps shows something else – you decide (BTC is the bottom lane).
A whale of a week in terms of learning opportunities. As always, looking forward to reading your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
In Elliott Wave terms, Vodi X began a wave one advance on September 4. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on September 10, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Vodi X should be heading next towards the September 10 peak in the red wave three.
Vodi is a mobile platform boasting 5+ million users in over 200 countries and is tokenizing its ecosystem by launching Vodi X. You can watch their latest update below.
In Elliott Wave terms, Contentos began a wave one advance on August 5. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 8, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on September 12. If this wave count is correct, Contentos should be heading next towards the August 8 peak in the red wave three.
Please click the link below to listen to the 53rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s episode examines the idea of crypto being a failed experiment destined for the ‘ah well’ ideas bin of history. Well, It’s possible, right? Right? No, no not at all.
Of course, in absolute terms anything is possible but setting aside cataclysmic events that wind back the tech clock – crypto is here to stay.
While it’s true that history is indeed littered with good ideas that went nowhere – the ideas phase of crypto is long past. For over a decade now we have seen a blockchain store and transact value without the need for permission from any central authority. This is powerful juju. Bitcoin has survived many trials and tribulations from exchange hacks to hard forks. While elegant design, a fortuitous genesis, and communal efforts have all played their part – it is the proof of concept that has supported BTC through each and every struggle it has faced. By proof of concept, I mean, man for the first time I history now has the means to transfer value across time and space without the need of a permission-giving middleman. There is no harbour master, no caravaneer, no border official, no bank notary. If you will it and you possess Bitcoin – you may now move wealth as you wish. Sure, there’s a fee, a toll if you like and miners which process transactions but this is procedural -automatic – no documents or permission are required.
Now Bitcoin may well fail. Indeed, every iteration of blockchain currently in the market may fail but the genie is most certainly out of the bottle. Believing that crypto will disappear assumes that people will simply abandon permissionless, value transfer and meekly return to the bank and state-dominated fold. Given the fundamental shift in financial autonomy that crypto offers, it is exceedingly unlikely that the tech itself would be abandoned even if the first generations of this tech were all to fail. I mean it’s possible, but when you ponder it, is it likely?
Now what is likely is that crypto will fork into two distinct implementations – one decentralized and empowering, the other state-controlled and dystopian. As with any technological innovation, it is as open to abuse as holistic use. China is already well on its way to rolling out a state-issued cryptocurrency – one which will no doubt aim to further increase its control over its citizens. State crypto will allow the government to track, coerce and punish those who would oppose it. Imagine a future where you post a comment in a chatroom, only to find yourself locked out of your own accounts…and unable to spend your ‘own ‘money all at the push of a button or the whim of some automated surveillance software…that day is nigh.
Concurrently, we will see the further development of decentralized networks for the storing and transacting of value – empowering both the individual and the economies of which they are part. In the coming years, both iterations of crypto will flourish in some cases within the same jurisdictions. As to the victor – decades lie between us and that outcome.
The ups and downs on bitcoin have progressively scene smaller swings over the past couple months.
After topping out in late June price has made lower highs at the peak of moves while holding support at the 9400 or 9800 level.
This has created a descending triangle pattern.
As you can see looking at the chart we are getting closer and closer to the apex of that triangle, meaning price action is getting tighter and tighter.
It’s just a matter of time until we get a move breaking out of breaking down from this pattern.
Who knows, it could be the catalyst to some volume coming in for some real price movement.
I’m not going to speculate on which way it will resolve. I just know if we break 9400 I will be buying at 8500, assuming it gets there.
If price breaks higher than I will look for a buying opportunity most likely on a break of 11,000. Though I prefer to wait for a pullback after any push. Sometimes you don’t get it though.
