KNC technical analysis

KNC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has formed a double floor pattern as a sign of reversal of trend on the diagonal support, indicated within the chart above by the diagonal dark blue, in the chart I have enclosed by an oval yellow series of candles prior to the current candlestick with strong volume, the best entered was in the zone of demand located at 0.00001870 indicated within the above chart by the lower horizontal black color, the current candle is finding resistance in the supply zone located within the price range of 0.00002461 – 0.00002560, if we achieve the closing above that zone, we should have a next impulse towards our first profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341 indicated within the above chart by the two upper horizontal black color.

KNC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has maintained a correct movement over the area of demand, the current candle has tested the area of supply, we need a close above and confirmation to continue above, otherwise, the price could fall before the possible break, we see in the previous movement as the price has tested the resistance of the figure indicated within the chart above by the diagonal red color, this was a good confirmation that pushed this series of candles to the testing of the price range of 0. 00002461 – 0.00002560.

In conclusion, KNC also presents a bullish scenario that should have no trouble outbidding and moving towards our profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341, the current movement could continue to be driven without regression, but it would be advisable to wait for the closing of the current candle in 1D and see the reaction of the price in 4H to confirm the next movement, we must be very attentive to that price action not to stay out or to find our best entry position, the price must keep the diagonal dark blue that has been working as a support to have continuation of the opposite, the price would go in search of a new LL, always remember to place their stop loss in each operation to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

ALGO technical analysis

ALGO seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candle has managed to push strongly testing the area of supply located at 0.00004079 indicated in the chart above by the horizontal red color, if the current candle ends up being bullish we would have our second HL above the support indicated by the diagonal dark blue, this would increase the odds of a next bullish impulse, the 1D demand zone is located within the price range of 0.00003254 – 0.00003415, indicated in the graph above by the two lower horizontal black color, if the price in its retreat manages to hold that point, we could see a next movement in search of the breakage of the supply zone mentioned above.

ALGO seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see that the strong momentum was achieved by the closing of the previous candle, however, has not achieved the closing above the area of supply, therefore, we could see some retreat into the area of demand forming a triple floor on the diagonal as a strong bullish signal for the bulls, this would move the price to 0.00004079 in search of the break, within the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that the price could follow during the movement within the figure of the upward triangle.

In conclusion, ALGO shows signs of a possible continuation of the upward movement, the best time to have entered this momentum was in the support located at 0.00002117, however, the price has already formed two HL and we have a correct test of the area of supply, therefore, the probabilities of a close break are very high, it is advisable to wait for our entry between 0.00003254 – 0.00003415, however, any movement could occur in the next candles, we must be very attentive to the price action not to stay out of the next movement, the price should keep the diagonal, otherwise, the price could form a new LL, always remember to place their stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)

I meant to type this post on Monday, but I was WAY too busy trading. Yesterday my usually quiet family suddenly became super-communicative – ruining my chances of getting a proper post out.

However, here IS a post at last. I believe this post is important to write because – as I often lament – the media is littered with ABSOLUTELY CLUELESS crypto analysis (some purposefully so, some real). I need to set the record straight and to remind people (in the words of the immortal Douglas Adams): “Don’t Panic!”

Background (important)

I need to stress that what has happened to BTC during the last few days is:

  1. Perfectly normal
  2. Expected

If you did not expect it, or if you don’t think it is normal, then I can only shake my head at you and make the universal disappointed clicking noises “tsk tsk”, because it means that you did not listen to Uncle Bit Brain. Maybe next time you will…

When reading and interpreting crypto predictions:

It is important to remember that crypto is inherently unpredictable and that even the best analysts (like me) can’t predict short-term events with a certainty of more than about 60%, even when they are very certain. With that in mind, remember that we WILL get things wrong and that our predictions DO change over time. But also note that the more long-term a prediction is, the higher the chances of it being right. It sounds counter-intuitive, but I can predict BTC prices in 2022 with a much higher certainty than what I can predict BTC prices next week.

Confirmations are vitally important in this game. My regular modus operandi is that usually see a pattern emerge, I wait a day or two for initial confirmation, I publish my idea and then I confirm it with increasing certainty as price movements tie in with my predictions. The confirmation process usually requires the fine-tuning of my predictions or, if they are not working out, abandoning my predictions altogether.

Now that you have the background, let’s look at BTC:

BTC

I have long been predicting the movements of BTC which we are seeing now. I’ve been Tweeting about them, blogging about them and displaying my ideas both graphically and in text form.

With this post I aim to set your mind at rest by showing just how far back these predictions go, and also showing you (once again) why you should always listen to Bit Brain…

To keep this post of realistic length, I’ve limited it mainly to graphical Twitter posts, with a few blog charts dotted in between.

The first time I correctly identified and wrote about the BTC descending channel was on 23 July. That’s really not bad (if I do say so myself); it was only this past weekend (four months later) that I first noticed most other analysts at last referring to a descending channel. Some still haven’t realised it… Here is my 23 July chart (from THIS post):

Price movements in early August confirmed the channel, and my faith in it grew (and allowed me to fine-tune it). This chart is from the 5 August post BTC – Beginning of the Week Analysis:

Further mid-August confirmations as BTC rode the top of the channel lower:

At this stage of the game I was still rather optimistic about price, not realising how long the channel would last (it’s now 5 months old, and will probably last for about another month).

September brought us another channel confirmation (with the possibility of turning it into a pennant):

This late September chart is the kind of information that I buy on: a well confirmed trend indicating that prices are relatively low, but can be expected to recover significantly at a later stage. I feel very comfortable placing buy orders based on charts like this:

…so confident that I can even risk missing out on mid-channel dips in favour of better opportunities later (not recommended).

October movements (the next two charts are from THIS post of 24 October) allowed me to modify my channel and to differentiate “Mean Highs” from “Absolute Highs”. Note that my channel has not needed to be modified since then.

Very importantly; October gave me an indicator that the channel was a long-term one and that I shouldn’t expect it to end before the end of 2019. That is still my current thinking.

When BTC dipped through a smaller local channel on 8 November, I was very confident that we would soon be heading down to the bottom of the main channel again. Once again I set buy orders with supreme confidence (note that “65%+”!) and realistic target prices.

Expecting the price drop, I pencilled in a rough sketch of an expected BTC price trajectory. It’s still on my charts today and I’m still using it as a realistic estimate of what may happen.

Which brings us to today:

Everything that is happening is ABSOLUTELY NORMAL and expected. I’m still perfectly happy with the channel and am confident in its long history of predictions and adjustments.

The keen-eyed may have observed that I have just placed my good old diagonal Fib levels on the chart – I believe that they may help a bit in predicting minor resistance/support levels while this channel remains active.

The medium-term chart gives better perspective and introduces a very interesting possibly coincidence/possible important indicator: the convergence of the bottom of the channel, a long-term support/resistance line and the long-term BTC price support line. No I did not cook the books, the lines just worked out that way. The chart after this one better illustrates where the latter two lines come from.

I think there is a very strong possibility that BTC will receive considerable support from the (white dashed) support/resistance line, as well as from the long-term base trendline. that means that BTC should continue to follow my rough little yellow prediction line, and that we should hit 2020 headed in a positive direction.

It also means that we may dip further during the next couple of weeks as the bottom of the channel continues towards lower lows. I expect a final trend reversal in the vicinity of 16 December.

Remember:

  • It’s not about catching the very bottom of the dip, it’s about getting in at a good enough price. I would rather buy a few hundred dollars away from the bottom of the dip, than miss it altogether.
  • Many excellent altcoins are very near to All Time Lows. DON’T FORGET THE ALTCOINS! As I Tweeted yesterday: if you don’t buy them now, then when will you buy them?
  • Trade with your head, not with your heart.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




EDO technical analysis

EDO seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has remained within a parallel channel bassist, marked within the graph with the blue figure, currently the price has made us a range in the area of weekly demand located in the 0.00003177, marked on the graph by the horizontal lower black forming the first HL, we need the closing of this candle is strong to go for the test of the neck line located at 0.00005006, if this scenario occurs, the possibilities of a next upward movement increase and we could see the price go in search of our second target located within the price range of 0.00009506 – 0.00010888, indicated in the chart above by the two upper horizontal black color.

EDO seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see as the price after the recession is maintaining an excellent movement a series of HL that should push the price towards the zone of offer of the line of neck located in the 0.00005006, within the chart above I have marked through the two blue diagonals the possible scenario that we could see in the coming days, the resistance is not yet confirmed, however, this type of figures are very common within these moments of the trend and we must take it into account and wait for confirmation once the price goes up to test the high range.

In conclusion, EDO is at a good time to go in search of an upward movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00005006, if this happens, we could see the price go back to form a new HL that would be the important signal to go in search of our second profit target located within the price range of 0.00009506 – 0.00010888, the price should be kept above the diagonal support we see on the blue 1D chart, otherwise, the price could fall even further, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

LSK technical analysis

LSK seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the candle structure has formed a descending wedge indicated in the chart above by the two dark blue diagonals where the price has been contracting during the movement within the figure as a sign of a slow sale prior to an upward movement, the 2 previous candles have formed a hammer candle followed by a doji on the demand zone located at 0.0000831, if the current candle breaks the resistance of the figure we could see a possible bullish impulse towards the supply zone located at 0.0001087, this is an area to take into account in the short term as the price could fall in a confirmation test to the demand zone mentioned above and then continue with a much larger bullish movement, the other possible scenario is that the momentum is strong enough in the breakout to reach our second profit target located within the price range of 0.0001460 – 0.0001594 indicated in the chart above by the two horizontal black.

LSK seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how while the price has been falling within the figure, the RSI indicator shows us a clear bullish divergence, indicated by the dark blue diagonal within the indicator, we need the daily candle to close strongly above the resistance of the figure to go in search of the supply zone located at 0.0001087 where we could have two possible scenarios during the movement, whose possible trajectories I have drawn within the chart above, if the supply is taken in that zone, the price could go back to the demand zone before going in search of higher targets.

In conclusion, LSK presents an excellent moment within the trend count for bullish movement, our first target would be the supply zone located at 0.0001087, while our second profit target is located within the price range of 0.0001460 – 0.0001594 and our third target is located within the price range of 0.0002511 – 0.0002717, the price is still within the figure, so we must secure the position and be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D to look for a close with force that gives us a signal of continuation, always remember to place their stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Cryptocurrency Drama (Part 3)

Behold, the penultimate instalment in my first and only play! It’s brilliant so far, isn’t it?

In case you missed part’s 1 and 2, you’d better catch up here: (or else you will be totally lost!)

Enjoy!

See you tomorrow for the thrilling conclusion to this drama!

Scene 2

The is a knock on the door. The Director of Automated Networks opens it to reveal Bit Brain standing in the doorway.

DIRECTOR of AUTOMATED NETWORKS
Please, step inside and have a seat Mr Brain!

BB enters and shakes the extended hand of the DAN. They both take a seat.

DIRECTOR of AUTOMATED NETWORKS
Ernie tells me that you wish to discuss something with me?

BB
Thank you Mr Director. Yes, I would.

DAN
I’m guessing that this has to do with your insufficient CPU preventing you from carrying out transactions on our shopping network?

You do realise that this is just temporary right? A month from now the REX lending contracts will expire and things will probably return to normal. Probably. Until then we get to demonstrate how much traffic our network can handle from the EIDOS box; it’s a good thing. Also our franchise will soon upgrade to our optimised “Version 2.0”, that will make us even more efficient!

BB
Well, I suppose that the CPU issue inspired me to be here, but that’s not really why I asked to see you.

DAN
Then I am curious Mr Brain, why are you here?

BB
I am here because I’m concerned Mr Director. I’m concerned because your store is experiencing a rather severe issue, and all anybody says about it is that “it’s a good thing”. Mr Director, I am concerned because you and your supporters are in denial! I haven’t seen this much denial since that German guy said he was going to open a bar that specialises in selling carrot juice; I still can’t believe that so many of the Carrot Bar’s investors were in denial about that scam!

Mr Director, thousands of shoppers can’t shop here at the moment, and you just don’t seem to care because the richest ones still can!  Don’t you see how bad that looks?

DAN
Mr Brain, I think you’re blowing this out of proportion. Anyone who puts enough money into our CPU can still use the system, I don’t see the problem.

BB
I can appreciate that. Can you appreciate that many users can’t afford that? Do you have any idea what it’s like to be in there shoes? My memory is a little fuzzy on this point, remind me again just how much investment capital you attracted when you started up this business?

DAN
Yes, yes, we broke records when we started this business, but that’s not my money, that money belongs to the business.

BB
Yet the board of directors controls it. You get to say how and when it is used. You would never know what it is like to be stuck with only a single unit of credit on your CPU card, because that isn’t a reality that any of you have ever had to experience. But that is a reality that thousands of us customers experience right now, and Mr Director, we can not use your shopping network!

DAN
But can’t you see? The system is working as it should. That is what decentralisation is all about! He who puts the most into the scheme, gets the most benefit from the scheme.

BB
That’s fine, I think we can all accept that. But many of us were led to believe that we had already put sufficient money into the scheme, only to now be told that we will have to invest far more if we want to enjoy predictable, regular access to it! That’s not fair Mr Director! You need to address the problem of EIDOS denying resources to the majority of the network. You need to address the exploitation of your system!

DAN
We don’t see it that way. This is a good thing. There is no problem here.

BB
Damn it Mr Director! Can’t you see that I’m trying to help you guys? Can’t you see that having a whole lot of people who can’t access your network, despite having CPUs, is a big problem? Don’t you appreciate that people don’t want to wait a month to be able to make a transaction? Can’t you understand that nobody wants to create a start-up business as part of your franchise if their customers won’t be able to access their services?

Yesterday I ran into a new guy in town, he says he is the newly appointed District Apothecary. He wants to move into one of the abandoned buildings and start his own District Apothecary service – his DApp,
but he is afraid of the start-up costs. In the past I may have sent him here, to you guys, but now I would never do that to him. Instead I am going to suggest that he joins Ned from across the road and becomes part of his
franchise.

You see Mr Director, your mentality is becoming dangerously elitist, your store no longer cares about serving the man on the street, as long as it can serve a rich happy few, or those who are willing to exploit the system. That’s not right Mr Director, that’s not why we moved out here to the frontier! We are supposed to be moving away from systems like that, we are supposed to be creating fair systems for all! Sure the rich can enjoy benefits, but don’t shut the poor out of the network altogether!

DAN
That’s not our objective Mr Brain, we are neither anti-poor, nor pro-rich, we’re just decentralised.

BB
Don’t you worry about your franchisees? Don’t you worry that they will lose business after having placed their faith in you?

DAN
Our franchisees can create systems whereby they loan their own CPU to their customers, allowing them to continue to use our network of services.

BB
But surely some customers will exploit that to the detriment of others? That sounds like quite a complex undertaking for a start-up business to have to deal with; one which will require a potentially complex solution.

DAN
That’s true. But give it time.

BB
That could be more time and money than what people trying to create a DApp or something similar can afford…

Mr Director, as long as you can’t even admit that there is a problem, you can’t begin to address the problem. You know as well as I do that your franchise is hardly decentralised, the majority of resources and control sits right up at the top here with you! That’s fine, but then use it wisely! You need to address this issue! If you do not, then it will have repercussions for your business! Please just admit that there is a problem so that the problem can be tackled! The frontier is a new place, people accept that mistakes are being made, but in order to retain their confidence and respect you need to be honest with the people! Being realistic, open and honest attracts community support, that’s much better than sitting with disillusioned customers!

DAN
I’m sorry you see it that way Mr Brain. We see no issue. I tell you again, this is a good thing.

BB
Well I’m sorry too Mr Director. I tried to show you an impartial reality, but there are none so blind as those who will not see.

Exit Bit Brain

XEM technical analysis

XEM seen from the temporality of 1W we can observe as the structure of candles is within range zone, which I have delimited by the light blue rectangle, the price has correctly tested the zone of demand in 1W located in the 0.00000437 forming a double floor pattern as a signal of reversal of trend, so we could find in the short term an upward impulse towards our first target of gain located in the 0.00000675, which is our first key zone to take into account for the next movement, if this happens we could find resistance in that zone and correct by means of a test of the high range located in the 0.00000555 to later continue to rise by our second objective of gains located within the range of the price of the 0.00000675 – 0.00000882.

XEM seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the offer was accepted in the 0.00000555 after the escape of the minor figure that we see in the graph above indicated by the two diagonals dark blue color, this has caused the price to retreat into the area of demand where the structure has formed this double floor that should be a strong signal for the bulls to go for an upward movement towards our target located at 0.00000675, for this to happen we need the price in 1D to hold HL and find a strong impulse to buy into the high range of the rectangle, otherwise, the price could be oscillating even longer within this zone.

In conclusion, XEM shows an excellent chart with high bullish probabilities that has not yet been exploited within the bullish price flight in the BTC pairs that we have seen in other currencies during these days, therefore, in the short term we could see the price of this currency have a strong momentum, the current conditions are conducive to it, we just need the volume to see this possible scenario, otherwise, the price could continue to accumulate longer, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D to choose the best buy position and always remember to place their stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Cryptocurrency Drama (Part 2)

This post will make little sense if you have not already read “Cryptocurrency Drama”. Read that first before continuing here.

ACT 2 – The Present

Scene 1

Bit Brain is seen entering the same store as before. The store is very busy inside, though the town outside seems almost like a wasteland. Tumble-weeds blow across the main road
and many buildings stand abandoned.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Welcome back sir! It’s been quite a few months since we last saw you!

BIT BRAIN
Thanks Ernie. I’m afraid that I don’t come into town often these days, most of the time I just stay on the other side of the river with my tribe, the Timmites. There doesn’t seem to be any freely available BTC around at the moment, and that which I have, I am struggling to use. Last year I bought three horses for 1 BTC, this year just one horse costs 1 BTC!

EOS
Sadly that is true. You see, while you were away, a large pack of bears marauded their way through our town! They trashed all of our stores and wrecked a lot of the valuables inside. Our store is worth but a fraction of what it once was. Some of the smaller buildings around here were completely flattened, their owners packed up and left, everything inside them was lost.

BB
That’s terrible to hear! I suppose that the reality of being part of a dangerous frontier adventure is that we stand to gain high potential rewards, but at the cost of high potential risk.

EOS
Agreed. Is there anything specific I might help you with today sir?

BB
Well actually Ernie, I was rather hoping that you might. You see I took my CPU to one of your little franchises on the other side of the river last week, but they declined it. They said that it was unable to transact with the your network.

EOS
Oh dear sir, I‘m afraid that your CPU must have been negatively affected by the EIDOS!

BB
What’s an EIDOS?

EOS
The Entrepreneurial-Intentioned Destructive-Outcome Suggestions is the massive suggestion box located in the entrance foyer of our store. EIDOS causes so many suggestions to be submitted that our entire franchise has become completely dedicated to them. Basically, our network of stores has gone into “suggestion mode”.

That’s a good thing because now it shows how many suggestions we can handle!

Soon we will be completely revamping our store, we call it “Version 2.0”. It’s very exciting that we can handle so many suggestions already and we don’t even have our Version 2.0-optimised
store yet!

BB
But Ernie, my CPU doesn’t work. I can’t access your network of stores at all. Despite having deposited way more than the minimum, I’m locked out of the system!

EOS
Well you see, we’ve grown so much that our store is even catching up to Enormous Trade Holdings, the biggest name in the business, apart from Bank Toppling Currency of course! We have so many customers using the suggestion box that there is almost no capacity for anything else right now, but we see that level of activity as being a good thing.

BB
But what about the guaranteed access to your store that you promised me? That was the reason I got the CPU in the first place.
Wasn’t it?

EOS
Well yes, but we weren’t in suggestion mode then. Now that we are, you can see the true cost of using our network. That’s a good thing, because now we all have a more accurate idea of what it really costs to reserve access to our network of stores.

BB
But then you misled people with the whole “guaranteed access” story! You had enormous hidden costs waiting down the line! Ernie this is beginning to remind me of how the banks operate…

So you’re telling me that I’m locked out forever and that it’s just too bad?

EOS
Noooo sir! Of course not!

All you need to do is to increase the size of the deposit on your CPU.

BB
By how much? How big is this hidden cost to “guaranteed access” that you conveniently never mentioned before?

EOS
*mumbling*
Prices have risen roughly 100 000 times.

BB
*visibly shocked*
WHAT?!

EOS
*still mumbling*
But it doesn’t really matter anyway, since you can’t access the network to deposit more onto your CPU…
…because you don’t have enough CPU to get CPU.

BB
Are you kidding me? I can’t get CPU because I don’t have enough CPU? So I am locked out forever!

EOS
Noooo sir! Of course not!
You can use just borrow somebody else’s CPU for a while!

BB
*getting wary*
Okay…
But wouldn’t that be a lengthy and laborious process? How would I find someone? How would that even work in practical terms? How do I even do that? Please, help me here!

EOS
*visibly brightening up and going back into full “salesman mode”*
You can use Ridiculously Extended Xerographics!

BB
Dare I even ask what “Xerographics” means?

EOS
Xerographics, it’s a copying technique, so basically Ridiculously Extended Xerographics – or REX – allows you to lend the same CPU to different people over and over again, hence the copying analogy. You get paid interest for lending out your CPU.

BB
But that’s a ridiculously extended process just to be able to conduct a normal transaction on a shopping network!

EOS
Well, not really. We don’t see it that way, it’s a good thing.
*suddenly Ernie returns to his far more demure state*
Well, to be perfectly honest, there is a little snag with REX too. There still has to be CPU on REX that is available to be lent out.
*Ernie looks downright miserable*
Currently there isn’t any left…

BB
… because everybody is already borrowing all the CPU for EIDOS, right?

EOS
*Brightening up again*
Correct. Almost all the resources on REX and in this store are completely dedicated to EIDOS. But it shows the system works! You must see how many suggestions we process each day! It’s a good thing!

BB
Ernie, thanks for the explanation, but I’d very much like to speak to your manager.

EOS
Very well sir, let me see if the Director of Automated Networks is available.

Cryptocurrency Drama

This is the first full length play I’ve ever written. Fair warning, it’s long – it took most of the day for me to write it. I will split it into four posts of one scene each. For those who wish to wait, I will publish the play in it’s entirety after I have released all of the separate scenes.

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seats, switch your phones to silent and stow your noisy children. Now sit back as we raise the curtain on tonight’s performance of “Cryptocurrency Drama”!

DRAMATIS PERSONAE

ERNIE, an opportunistic salesman

BIT BRAIN, a customer

THE DIRECTOR OF AUTOMATED NETWORKS, a director of a large franchise

NED, a director of a small franchise

ACT 1 – The Past

Scene 1

Bit Brain enters a large store on the main road of a frontier Western Town established by pioneers. There he is greeted by an opportunistic salesman named Ernie.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Welcome sir! And a very good day to you!

BIT BRAIN
Thank you kind fellow, and a very good day to you too!

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Is there anything that I can assist you with?

BIT BRAIN
Perhaps a little later. I’ve heard a lot of good things about this store, it seems to be very popular. I wanted to see for myself what all the hype was about.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
No problem, just let me know if you need me.

BB wonders around the store and surveys the merchandise

BIT BRAIN
Ernie! Would you mind if I asked you a few questions?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
No problem sir! Ask away!

BIT BRAIN
I see a lot of new businesses have opened up around here recently. What’s happening?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Oh yes sir! You see, this is a frontier town. We have fled the mismanaged areas of the central government and have moved to this free and previously unsettled area. We didn’t feel safe living and working in the big towns anymore. I used to work in a bank in a large town, do you know what the building was made of?

BIT BRAIN
No, do tell.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
It was made of cards! It has become common practice for them to construct financial institutions out of playing cards! I would never have believed it if I had not seen it with my own two eyes, I know that many others do not believe it when I tell them!

BIT BRAIN
I believe you Ernie, I too have witnessed the houses of cards with my own eyes. That’s why my people and I have now moved out here to the frontier. What I’m trying to do now is to make a few good investments to set me up for the future. That’s why I’m here today, to see if I’m interested in buying what you guys are selling.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
I assume that sir has already been to the largest building in our town, the one with an enormous sign that says “Bank Toppling Currency”? They create most of the money that we use around here – we just abbreviate it as “BTC”. They actually have a mine beneath the building. Anyone with a pickaxe is free to go and mine their own money; wonderful system isn’t it?

BIT BRAIN
Yes indeed! I have been into the mine myself. Unfortunately my mining tools are rather crude compared to some of the advanced mining equipment that people are using down there, so I just bought some of their BTC off them with my dollars.

Speaking of BTC; I’ve taken a little walk around your store, and I like what I see. I would be interested in spending some of my BTC here, does this store accept it?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Oh I’m delighted to hear that sir! Yes of course we take BTC, but we have our own little account system that you will have be to registered on before we can process any transactions.

BIT BRAIN
Okay, how do I do that?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
We operate on a system whereby you buy everything on a store loyalty card. We call it the “Customer Purchasing Unit” or “CPU”. I’m afraid that it’s not a quick and easy process to get an account going, but it’s worth it in the long run. What you then do is you deposit a small amount of BTC onto your CPU, and that guarantees that you will always be able to use our store! Great system, isn’t it?

BIT BRAIN
Weeeeelll, it does sound a tad over-complicated, but for guaranteed access to this obviously expanding store, it seems like a fair trade-off.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Yes, I’m afraid that one of the directors here is known for developing very complex in-store economic systems, but he is very popular and there is no lack of customers queueing up to use them! Once you have a CPU, you can transact with any of the stores in our growing franchise!

BIT BRAIN
Sign me up Ernie!

XLM technical analysis

XLM seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has followed a long downward trend since the breaking of the distribution zone so far this year 2019, currently the price shows signs of reversal of trend where the price has made a series of bullish candles after finding bottom at 0.00000558, in this bullish impulse, the price has taken the offer located at 0.00000889, indicated in the graph by means of the horizontal red color, for the moment the price has formed us an HL, reason why it is very possible that the price forms us another HL inside the zone of weekly demand located inside the range of the price of the 0.00000651 – 0.00000771, indicated in the graph of above by means of the two horizontal black color, I have indicated the objectives of gain to medium or long term, being located the first objective inside the range of the price of the 0.00001252 – 0.00001408.

XLM seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has been put into a parallel channel bullish, indicated in the chart above by the two diagonals dark blue, we see how the last two candles have not managed to overcome the area of supply and the current candle begins to show a reversal signal, even the candle is young, however, the odds of a reversal to the area of 1W demand located within the price range of 0.00000651 – 0.00000771 are high, if this happens we would have a third HL within the channel with double floor pattern as a strong signal to the bulls for a much larger next bullish move.

In conclusion, XLM begins to give a good sign of trend reversal, for the moment the best thing to do is to wait for a retreat into the demand zone mentioned above and for the price to form a new HL that tells us the purchase intention to continue long, the price has to exceed the supply zone located within the price range of 0.00000889 – 0.00000941 so that the price can continue to rise towards our first profit target located within the price range of 0.00001252 – 0.00001408, the second profit target is located within the price range of 0.00001753 – 0.00001879, the high target is located within the price range of 0.00002743 – 0.00002926, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D to wait for the next best entry, always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

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