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My TIMM Trading Pit Commentary – Wk Of 2/11/19

February 18, 2019 Published by

TIMM (Traders’ & Investors’ Mentor Market) provides the tools analysts need to share their insights in a central location, TIMM becomes a market where traders and investors can shop for the insights they’re looking for.The Trading Pits are, in some ways, the main meeting place for TIMM. Here you will see folks sharing insights and asking questions about markets.

Commentary from this past week includes:

Gold just hit a 4 hr supply zone, if the trade is going to work, will need help from the US dollar, meaning it must get stronger.

I don’t trade copper, but here was a nice set-up

Is It Time To Short FedEx Again???

February 17, 2019 Published by

Two months ago, I wrote a post titled,

FedEx On Notice Today

FedEx reported earnings that beat on revenue, but missed profit estimates.  During the earnings call, FedEx decreased their 2019 numbers because of the ongoing US-China tariff war, which has already affected 10% of its businesses in China.  On that news FedEx sold off hard.

Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker notes that Amazon (AMZN), which currently is leasing 40 cargo jets, could eventually have 100 planes running and estimates that the planned Amazon Air routes could overlap with more than two-thirds of the volume flown by UPS and FedEx.

That’s bad news

Forex Analysis Report 2-16-19…More Upside On The EUR/SEK

February 17, 2019 Published by

EUR/SEK is the abbreviation for the Euro and Sweden Krone pair. It shows how much the EUR (base currency) is worth as measured against the SEK (counter currency). For example, EUR/SEK = 10.5400 indicates that one Euro can buy 10.5400 Sweden Krones.

Although Sweden is in the
Euro-Zone and is required to adopt the Euro currency a loophole has allowed the
nation to maintain its 230 year old krona (crown). The EUR/SEK has been in a 6-week
rally since late-December lows in the 10.1200 region. 

Last week, SEK saw
further downside pressure after the domestic Services PMI dropped to 54.1
during the first month of the

Five Things to Remember Before You Buy Your First Rental

February 17, 2019 Published by

If there is one thing any investor can do, whether new or experienced it’s being prepared before taking action.  It not only saves time and effort, but also puts you in a position to make a better decision.

Let’s talk about some things to already have decided before buying a rental.

Five Things to Remember Before You Buy Your First Rental

1.) Focus in on a few neighborhoods

If you are searching too large an area it can be difficult to recognize if a property is a good deal.  Sales and rental prices can vary from one town to the next.

Focusing in on a

More Upside In Mattel

February 16, 2019 Published by

A couple of days ago, I read an article on Investorplace about Mattel, titled,

Here’s Why $15 Looks Like A Top In Mattel Stock.

Overall, the pathway to restored profitability and top-line growth is gaining visibility. This boost in visibility explains the big pop in hugely beaten up MAT stock.

But, this post-earnings pop is overdone. At current levels, a Mattel turnaround over the next several years is already priced in. The stock is overbought and fully valued, and the price tag doesn’t seem to price in enough execution risk.

But, in the big picture, this was a $9 stock at

Will Canada Goose Soar Again???

February 16, 2019 Published by

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells premium outdoor apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies. I was aware of Canadian Goose when they went public in 2017 and then Canadian Goose made the headlines again in recent weeks.

In the last two weeks, as weather has dipped as low as -30 degrees with wind chill, the Chicago Tribune reports that the city has fallen victim to a Canada Goose coat stealing spree. There have been multiple accounts of thieves specifically targeting and stripping people of their $495 to $1695 power parkas—and, according to the Tribune, at least one

I’m Calling The Top In The DAX – Part 2

February 15, 2019 Published by

Two months ago, I called the top in the DAX,

I’m Calling The Top In The DAX

Last week, the final GDP result showed a decline of 0.2% in the third quarter, in line with expectations, but marked the first decline since 2014.  Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6, this marked a fourth straight drop in manufacturing activity.

German industrial output unexpectedly fell in December for the fourth consecutive month, sending another signal that growth in Europe’s biggest economy is weakening.  Analysts said the fall makes it more likely that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, which would translate into a recession after

Unusual Options Activity In Coca-Cola – Part II

February 15, 2019 Published by

Yesterday, after Coca Cola announced earnings for the holiday quarter, the stock price fell more than 8%, the worst drop in a day since 2008. 

Coca Cola missed on revenue and the forecast for the year was disappointing.  Sales of sparkling soft drinks fell 1%, partly due to softness in North America and sales of juice and plant-based drinks dropped 2% as Coke focused less on low-value juice brands in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Two months ago, I talked about unusual options activity betting against Coca-Cola. What made this an intriguing bet against Coca-Cola was the Smart Money thinks that Coca-Cola

Play The Extremes On Oil

February 14, 2019 Published by

OPEC reported that output fell by almost 800,000 bpd in January to 30.81 million bpd.  On Tuesday, Saudi Energy minister Khalid al-Falih said production would fall below 10 million bpd in March, more than half a million bpd below the target it agreed to.

Meanwhile, two weeks ago the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Record-breaking U.S. oil production is expected to continue for decades.  For example, Texas’s oil production hit a record level not seen since 1973. Texas oil wells produced more than 1.54 billion barrels of crude in 2018.  If Texas was a country production it would be the

Currency Analysis Report 2/14/19 – US Dollar Back At the Weekly Supply Zone

February 14, 2019 Published by

When Fed Powell hinted several weeks ago that rate hikes were on pause, many experts thought that would hurt the dollar. Low interest rates usually go hand in hand with a weaker currency.  However, the US dollar hit a fresh 2019 high earlier this week.

Since then, a bit of a pullback has developed and price now sits below the 97.00-level on the chart.  With weakness in the Euro and Japanese Yen, and China’s economy slowing down, I think the US dollar is a crowded trade.  There is no other place to turn to, so the US dollar is the lesser

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