Unusual Options Activity In Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) engages in the mining of mineral properties in the United States, Indonesia, Peru, and Chile. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. 

After a stellar 2017, FCX fell 46% in 2018 in large part to the drop in copper amid the US-China trade war.

As a result FCX received several downgrades from Wall Street in 2018.  The last downgrade was from RBC Capital, in November to “underperform” from “sector perform” and reduced their price target on FCX from $16 to $15.

FCX is expected to announce earnings on

All Eyes On Brazil’s Bolsonaro

Brazil stocks have been rallying since Bolsonaro’s presidential victory in October last year. 

While the global equity markets tanked in the fourth quarter, the Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 11% in the final quarter of 2018.  Brazil’s economy has struggled for growth in recent years.  Brazil also has massive pension issues.  For example, Brazil’s current retirement age is 60 for men and 55 for women which has has put a strain on the system. But global investors think Bolsonaro will make the changes necessary to help and grow the country’s economy again.

The most popular Brazilian ETF, iShares MSCI Brazil, EWZ, rose

How to Mitigate a Potential Real Estate Market Down Turn

Let’s face it, this real estate market cycle is getting a little long in the tooth.  It doesn’t necessarily mean the market is going to crash, but the odds of us being in the late innings of a growth cycle are ever increasing.
How to Mitigate a Potential Market Down Turn
There are a few things I’d like to point out that may make sense to do in our current market so you don’t get caught with your pants down when the tide goes out to sea.
Mind Your Leverage
There are times to be aggressive and lever up and times to play it

$SPX Weekly Outlook: NEUTRAL… $QQQ $IWM $DJI

US Markets have ripped higher to start the year. This is the best start to the Russell 2000 since 1987 (pun intended). We are halfway into the first month of the first quarter and the Bull is Back in Gear!

Although this was quite the V-Shaped rally that, NO ONE expected (which is exactly why it happens), we are still in a very neutral to bearish area. You can see the V-shape, panic buying, that has progressed over the past few weeks.

All of this buying to get back to HEAVY RESISTANCE (at 2680), and the DECLINING 200 Day MA at 2760.

CSX Transportation…Not Full Steam Ahead

CSX reported near double-digit top-line growth for their fourth quarter after the closing bell on Wednesday.   CSX’s volume and pricing strength led to mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth in a number of freight categories, including chemicals, automotive, forest products and coal.   However,  CSX told investors to expect low-single-digit revenue growth in 2019, a 7% decrease from 2018.

CSX is in an “unfamiliar position,” as Wednesday’s earnings report did not consist of its typical big beat and management’s tone during the conference was void of any “swagger,” Shanker said in a Thursday note.

CSX said it can’t identify any trend in its business

Sherwin-Williams and Lowes, For Better Or Worse

Shares of Sherwin-Williams tanked on Tuesday after the company warned that its earnings in 2018 came well short of guidance, citing weak sales in North American stores. 

The paint maker on Tuesday reported its preliminary results for the fourth quarter and full year 2018. Net income for 2018 is now expected to be $11.15 a share, well below previous guidance of between $13.85 and $14 a share. Shares of the lost more than 6% in Tuesday’s session.

Analysts will often look at the Sherwin-Williams as a barometer for health of the consumer and housing market.

Sherwin-Williams will continue to operate its own

Where Are We in the US Market Cycle?

The US Market endured one of the worst holiday seasons of all time this past Q4. Since then we have rallied HEAVILY off the lows and in fact, “one of the best starts in stock market history by the Russell 2000” has happened.
Well you remember what happened in 2016, with the worst start to the year? It may be about to turn into the exact opposite.

Above you will see where I believe we are in the cycle. After rising so STEEPLY, and possibly topping, you get the initial down move. Then you get “THE BOUNCE”. We are coming up on

Russell 2000…Look For It To Start Turning Down

They say the Russell 2000 leads the way down and leads the way up. 

The Russell 2000 lead the way down last quarter dropping almost 30% from its Aug 31 high vs the S&P 500 dropping almost 15% over the same period.

What a difference a new quarter and year make. The Russell 2000 has led the broader market, rising nearly 8% vs the S&P 500’s nearly 5% rise.  However, the Russell 2000 leading the broader markets might be short lived. 

Usually towards the end of the business cycle, rising interest rates hurt smaller companies the most because they have a higher debt

Has GE Bottomed??? – Part 2

Three weeks ago, I wrote about GE because I was starting to see articles questioning whether GE had bottomed.

But before considering going long, the conviction for me would be if price can pull back to the daily demand at $6.75, then take out the $8 level, the bottom in GE would be more convincing at that point.

Has GE Bottomed???

GE not only came back to retest the daily demand at $6.75, but closed above the $8 level.

Now the same analyst who upgraded the stock, when it was in the $6 range citing a more citing a more “balanced risk-reward” profile and

SPX: Gap and Go So Took My Profits

As the S&P 500 pushes further into the resistance zone I decided not to be greedy and booked the rest of my day (turned into overnight) trade.
Bad News is Good so Good News is Great
The market was strong yesterday and the day before despite poor earnings announcement from companies such as Citi.  Thus, when Bank of America and Goldman Sachs were upbeat I guess that means we are definitely going to go a bit higher?
Well, atleast open higher and that is what happened followed by a push higher.  Or as I call it a gap and go.  Being we have