Sly

The Hyena keeping tabs.



Categoryanimalphotography
Camera ~ LensNikon D3400 DSLR ~ 55-200 mm
LocationAustralia

Prompt / Theme: Do you do any volunteering? Is it something you want to do more of?


Giveaway ? – 2 winners
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Winners will be chosen randomly after post payout.


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  • Comment a reply directly to this post within 7 days. A genuine (family friendly) comment responding to the theme / prompt is required.
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  • Not be on @cheetah’s blacklist.

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World Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/11/19

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.

Source Image

Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated.  However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes.  However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.

DAX (Germany)

Dow Jones (US)

FTSE 100 (England)

Nasdaq (US)

Nifty 50 (India)

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Shanghai (China)

Russell 2000 (US)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/12/19

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)        

Consumer Staples (XLP)                   

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)              

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                      

Real Estate (XLRE)                          

Technology (XLK)                 

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/11/19

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Ag Analysis Report – 8/9/19…Is Corn Prices Going Lower???

The planting season in 2019 was historically slow due to wet weather several months ago. The storms left millions of acres unseeded and put corn crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage.  For example, in May, a farmer in Indiana said his corn crop was only 6% planted at the time, but this was the case in most of the Midwestern states as many farmers experienced record flooding across the central United States.

Image result for corn and flooding

The latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield, as well as a noticeable variation from the July U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.

AccuWeather analysts predict the 2019 corn yield will be 13.07 billion bushels, a decline of 9.3% from 2018 and 5.8% lower than the latest USDA figures. It would be the lowest yield since 2012, a year of a significant drought that saw final corn production numbers plummet to 10.76 billion bushels.

Source

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only).  On Monday they report their numbers for corn.

I have no idea what the crop yield is going to be when the report is issued on Monday. Big here is a bigger picture of the corn futures on the weekly chart.

So I will repeat, I have no idea what the results are going to be on Monday, but based on the daily chart, the chart suggests, the results will surprise on the upside, pushing prices down, due to price entering a daily supply as I finish this post.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector – Part 2

I wanted to give an update on one of my favorite plays in the Marijuana space.  I talked about Innovative Industrial Properties three months ago,

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector

but a lot has happen since then.   Again, Innovative Industrial is a marijuana-based REIT that acquires cannabis-related properties. Innovative Industrial went public in 2016.  The company has made eight quarterly dividend payments since July 2017, with three separate $0.10/quarter increases over that span.  And on July 15th, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, representing an increase of 33% from the previous quarter.

But also In July, the company issued 1,495,000 shares of common stock.  Typically when a company issues more stock, where they dilute the earnings/share which is frown upon on Wall Street.  This is probably why the stock fell in mid-July.

Now in my eyes, they raised more cash to buy more properties…which is a good thing.  In recent months, the company has acquired the following properties: six in California, two in Pennsylvania, two in Michigan and one each in Ohio, Nevada and Massachusetts.  But get this, all the properties have occupants that have signed on to long-term leases.

There reason why I love Innovative Industrial Properties so much is because you have an opportunity to get onboard a growing company, in one of the hottest growing secular trends, that’s paying shareholders dividends that grow almost every quarter. Why are dividends such a big due, look at the returns of the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends.

Source

I’m personally looking to buy if price gets to the $64 level, so if price breaches the daily demand at $95 price has a shot of getting through the mess in white and to the $64 level. 

This level also represent a fib retracement of 61.8%, for all the folks out there that use fibonacci in their trading.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Unusual Options Activity In Apple – Part 2

Three days ago, I talked about unusual options activity in Apple

Unusual Options Activity In Apple

After earnings, the stock price went from $220 to under $190, which represented a 14% drop. Since any stocks’ move is comprised roughly 49% of the broader market move and 31% of the stock’s sector move reason for the Apple’s drop was the DOW’s 800 point move to the downside. Nevertheless, algos and hedge fund managers saw price hitting the 200 moving average and that’s when price caught the bids. That’s also when the Smart Money bought an astounding 48,000 call options with a strike price at $200 that expire today.

Now the price at which those options as I write this post are sitting at $.70 or $70 per contract,

but prior to the Market close yesterday those contracts were at $300 / contract.

This represents a return of 254% for the Smart Money. Why do I say they made a profit, because they sold out of their positions yesterday? How do I know this, because the the 48,000 contracts, the volume in this case on Tues, would of shown up as open interest on Wednesday. Open interest indicates the total number of option contracts that are currently open or held.  Unlike options trading volume, open interest is not updated during the trading day. So the Smart Money sold their options between Wednesday and Thursday, because the open interest going into the trading day Friday only shows a bit over 1500 contracts.

Another example of why I only follow the Smart Money…plain and simple, they have information that simple isn’t accessible to anyone else.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 8/9/19 – The Kiwi Got Squashed

The New Zealand dollar is known in the forex world after its national icon, the flightless bird called the Kiwi, which is also pictured on the country’s $1 coin.

Image result for new zealand $1 coin

The Kiwi remains under pressure as lingering U.S.-China trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut interests rate twice this year and Bearish traders were betting on another ¼ point cut this earlier this week. But the news that came out this week, even shock the Bears.

The New Zealand Dollar was crushed Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed its interest rate further than markets expected and gave guidance that was more ‘dovish’ than anticipated, but analysts say there’s more losses ahead because the bank is likely to cut again before long.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% Wednesday when financial markets had looked for only a 25 basis point reduction, taking the market by surprise and prompting traders to dump the Kiwi currency by the bucketload.

Image result for Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr hinted at further easing by any means necessary in order to hit their inflation rate targets.   Based on where I think the global economy is headed over the coming 12-24 months, I’m personally bearish as well on the Kiwi.

On the monthly chart, there is a nice head and shoulder pattern.

So based on a measured move, price could go sub .5000, which is an extreme.

So I will settle for distance that is half the measured move, but at the moment, on a smaller time frame, I can find a level to enter to go short.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Gasoline Analysis Report 8/9/19 – More Declines To Come

The last time I posted about gasoline was in late June,

Gasoline Analysis Report 6/27/19 – Will Prices Continue To Rise???

The refinery was the largest and oldest on the East Coast went up in flames, removing 25% of the refining capacity in the Northeast in the process.

The chart suggests if gasoline can rise a bit higher to short (due to gasoline supply concern) price at the daily supply at $2.015. 

In the article I talked indirectly about gasoline being a derivative of oil, which means that if oil rises/falls, gasoline will follow suit.

Retail gasoline prices tend to rise in the spring and peak in the Summer when people drive more frequently.  So the set-up had the seasonality going for it as well since the accident was a month past Memorial Day.

Unleaded Gasoline miNY Futures (QU) Seasonal Chart

Needless to say price hit the daily supply at $2.015 and fell.

According to AAA, the national average is about $2.69 per gallon now, down from a couple of cents from last week.  I anticipate retail gasoline prices continue to decline in the coming months.   The  gasoline futures’ chart suggests price is heading down to $1.4500

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Inquisitive

Coming a little bit closer..



Categorybirdphotography
Camera ~ LensNikon D3400 DSLR ~ 18-55 mm
LocationAustralia

Prompt / Theme: Molten Ogre. Answer one of the following:

  • If you play Steem Monsters, do you use this card? Why, why not?
  • If you don’t play, give the cards aesthetics a score out of 10.

Giveaway ? – 2 winners
Prize: 1 Steem Basic Income share + 100 SPT

Winners will be chosen randomly after post payout.


Rules:
  • ? No Upvote, No Resteem, No Follow – just your responding comment required to enter.
  • Comment a reply directly to this post within 7 days. A genuine (family friendly) comment responding to the theme / prompt is required.
  • Posted or Commented 5 or more times during the week this post is active.
  • Not be on @cheetah’s blacklist.

Thanks for having a look ?

If you liked this photo follow @kiokizz for more.