WTC seen from the 1W seasonality we can observe how the candlestick structure has formed a long 2 year downward wedge, currently the price is at an excellent moment of the trend, ending the wave (5) of momentum, at any time we should have a strong momentum towards the diagonal resistance of the major figure coinciding with the weekly offer located at 0.0000861 indicated within the chart by the pink horizontal, this would be our first stop before a correction towards the weekly demand that would form the price with the upward closing of the weekly candlestick, if in the retracement we form a HL we would have a very good signal of continuation of the upward trend that would be confirmed by the breakout and confirmation of the major figure.
WTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the (EW) play for the long term, the key points of the run I have marked within the chart, the first is located at 0.0001232, the second point is located at 0.0003040, the key bid is located at 0.0004052 and I have marked it by the horizontal gold color in the MONTHLY (B).
WTC seen from the 4H time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price is looking for the point (5) of the current downward momentum, the ideal would be to find an entry below the S/R FLIP 4H located at 0.0000413, indicated within the chart by the blue horizontal, to see a reversal we need a reclaim of that support and move towards the resistance of the lower figure.
In conclusion, WTC is in a good moment to buy with a medium and long term view, this pair has an excellent profit margin if the current scenario that I have shown in the graph is fulfilled, the points are technically calculated, however, the times and distances can vary according to the acceleration of each movement, this must always be taken into account when reading a TA. In the minor temporality, WTC should fall a bit more below 0.0000413 to try to recover that level as support, so I recommend to be very attentive to the price action in 4H and 1D and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the movement
Yet another challenging week to recap – there was a literal avalanche of good/compelling material to choose from. Of course, this is a great problem to have. From elegant explanations of the value proposition of LINK to insightful reflections on the year just past and the decade to come. A wealth of fascinating content awaits the curious crypto enthusiast!
Pick of the Week
If you only have time for one thing – check out this podcast re the 21 lessons of Bitcoin – you won’t regret the investment.
Yet again, a whole lot to take-in from just one week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
MetLife, Inc. engages in
the insurance, annuities, employee benefits, and asset management businesses. The company offers life, dental, group short-
and long-term disability, individual disability, accidental death and
dismemberment, vision, and accident and health coverages, etc. Serving
approximately 100 million customers, MetLife has operations in more than 40
countries and holds leading market positions in the United States, Japan, Latin
America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
MetLife was named Life
Insurance Company of the Year at the 2019 Middle East Insurance Industry Awards
(MIIA), organized by Middle East Insurance Review. As the fourth time recipient
of the award, MetLife was commended for its customer focus and recognized for
its efforts in enhancing the customer experience.
Last month, MetLife was
named one of America’s “Most Responsible Companies” by Newsweek
magazine. MetLife was the top-ranked insurance company on Newsweek’s inaugural
list, and number 19 of all 300 companies recognized.
Several months ago, MetLife got into the financial service business when it bought Bequest, Inc. Bequest helps customers draw up legally valid wills and estate planning documents online.
But an interesting move Metlife
made several weeks ago, was when it bought PetFirst Healthcare, a fast-growing
pet health insurance administrator.
The love affair with
pets, in particular cats and dogs goes back to the Egyptian times. Back in the
Egyptian times, dogs and cats were laid to rest in elaborate tombs decorated
with inscriptions, furnished with treasure and scented by incense. It’s
believed that dogs and cats improve human physical and mental health.
68% of households in
America have a pet. This is double the percentage of households that have
children. And pet owners will do practically anything or their cat or dog.
The pet insurance market is under-penetrated and fast-growing. The roughly 85 million families that own pets in the United States spend $18 billionii annually on veterinary care, yet, as of 2018, less than 2 percentiii of pets were insured. Following the acquisition, PetFirst will continue to market pet insurance through animal welfare societies and its direct-to-consumer channel. Beginning in the summer of 2020, MetLife will offer this pet insurance to employers through its leading group benefits distribution channel, reaching approximately 41 million employees and dependents across the U.S.
Katie Blakeley, CEO of PetFirst said, “For more than 15 years, we have proudly focused on developing products and services to meet the growing and evolving needs of pet parents across the U.S. During this time, we have seen pet insurance continue to gain importance as a valuable product for families. With MetLife’s tremendous reach and resources, we see a strong opportunity to help more pet parents get access to pet insurance and alleviate the potential financial burden of a sick or injured pet.”
Metlife now offers a broader suite of products to serve their customers and their financial strengths is admired by investors. So it only makes sense that yesterday, I noticed unusual options activity. The Smart Money bought over 50,000 March call options with strike price at $55.
What’s interesting about this trade is that price is approaching a weekly demand zone at $54.50. If I had to put my money on the zone or the Smart Money, my money would go to the Smart Money all the time. Stay tuned.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
BTC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candlestick has tested the important supply zone located at 8215 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal color, coinciding with the diagonal resistance of the major figure, this was an expected movement to complete the WXY correction pattern, the price should now go in search of the weekly demand located within the range of 6200 – 6314 to form the point (Y).
BTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price has formed a high at 8158, this supply level has not been taken, therefore, we could still have some confirmation wick in that price before the price gives us a signal to continue falling, we have an important support located at 7629 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal, if for the moment the price does not take the supply today, we could see a rebound in that support looking for the supply level at 8158.
In conclusion, BTC has formed an important high under the resistance of this parallel channel, the 8215 has been tested correctly leaving us with a maximum at 8500, for now we should wait for the price to continue falling or form a LH under the diagonal resistance to have confirmation, while the price does not claim the level located at 8215 we can not expect the price to continue rising, Based on the WXY pattern, we should have a new entry in the range of 6200 – 6314 where the price would form a double floor as a reversal signal in key support and confirmation point (Y), therefore, I recommend following the 1D price action very closely and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the move.
The Free Republic of Liberland has the pleasure of sending the congratulatory letter to Zoran Milanović on his election. Read the official letter from the President below.
Dear Mister President,
With your election to the Presidency of the Republic of Croatia, it is with great pleasure that I send you my warmest congratulations. I fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenges that you face and wish you every success in your new role.
There is no doubt that his momentous election has been watched with much attention by the international community.
It is my deep hope that our cooperation will be established, and I assure you of the support of the Free Republic of Liberland. I will be happy to build healthy relationships between our two countries.
Please accept, Mister President the expression of my highest and most cordial consideration.
Yes I am still alive. (Sorry to disappoint you politicians, mass media journalists, bankers and other scum – you don’t get off the hook that easily!)
My recent silence has not been voluntary, unfortunately I am once again looking after an injured wife. Sadly this takes up the majority of my time, but now that she is slowly on the mend, I will try to get
back to my neglected blogging.
Let’s take a holistic view of the markets, looking at Bitcoin in particular but also at a few related events/issues/etc.
The year started with a bang – a literal bang if your name is (was) General Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let us pause for a moment on this single issue, because the ramifications of that attack are potentially far-reaching. I’m not going to go into whether the attack was justified or not, what Iran did to deserve it etc – go down that path and you get lost in the nitty gritty – that I will leave up to you to decide for yourselves. Since this post is more about BTC than about how the world works, I’ll skip the detailed political/military/economic analysis and will merely mention the high level interesting effects that I think this attack has brought to light.
Bit Brainian thoughts to ponder over:
Media coverage was immediate and widespread – to a disproportionate degree if viewed against similar events.
This is exactly like the disproportionate amount of coverage received by Greta Thunberg. If you want to know more about how and why this happens, then don’t miss this spectacluar eye-opener: “When Children Cry”.
Wars make a very useful national distraction for presidents who are struggling with domestic opposition – Clinton launched a similar attack prior to his impeachment trial.
If you want to unite a divided population, then few things work better than a war. People forget their differences when they combine against an external “threat” – whether than threat is real or just a perceived threat created by the government propaganda machine (like the “threat” posed by Jews to Germany in the WWII era).
This was an inflationary move (in terms of tension and military aggression) that will destabilise the world. There is no telling how far this destabilising effect will go – a chain reaction is hard to control. With the global economy already on shaky ground, the tipping point of grand-scale economic systems-failure could come sooner (weeks or months) rather than later (within a year or two).
Bitcoin price shot up due to instability and uncertainty – or FUD if you prefer. Such a rise is a panic reaction and is based on very little fundamental reasoning.
The goldfish-like memories of investors may soon fade, sending the price of BTC back down by maybe $500 to $1000.
Ironically the more intelligent long-term investors will have been buying up BTC for years because of long-term instability and uncertainty of the fiat-based markets.
It’s interesting to note how BTC was clearly used as a store-of-value as soon as an international crisis loomed.
BTC’s transformation into “Digital Gold” in the eyes investors has spread beyond the realm of early adopters and is entering the mainstream collective psyche.
…which just makes Peter Schiff’s incoherent panic-ranting look ever more pathetic!
Bitcoin
My last post of 2020 “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” showed how everything was running exactly according to plan and prediction. Well, it was running exactly according to MY plans and predictions – if you follow lesser analysts and their incorrect tales of weak TA fiction, then that’s your own problem.
The post mentioned above was published on 16 December and I haven’t actually needed to update you since then, because that post has been right on the money ever since. Let’s recap a little and see what’s happening now.
The day after I wrote that post I posted this Tweet:
16 hours after Tweeting that, the price of BTC hit a seven month low and turned (generally) positive. The prediction was based on a triple-line convergence point, the details of which may be found in “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” and which remain valid.
It must be mentioned that THE BITCOIN PRICE TURNAROUND HAS YET TO BE CONFIRMED!
Until BTC has conclusively broken through the top of the descending channel, the scenario that BTC may continue to trend downwards remains. I BELIEVE that the price movement of BTC (and of crypto in general) has now turned around, but at this stage I am still willing to concede that I may be mistaken – though the evidence suggests that I am not.
To break out of the channel, BTC will have to break through the red zone depicted on the chart below.
Note in the chart above that BTC price is currently well above my projected price line (yellow), so (as I said earlier) don’t panic if the FUD-based buying comes to an abrupt halt and the price drops into the mid $7000s.
On the other hand, this buying spree and obvious faith placed in BTC as a store-of-value may well trigger another bull run and send crypto prices to new ATHs. At this stage we can’t tell what will happen yet, so just keep calm and take it day by day, remembering that crypto investing is a long-term game.
The performance of altcoins in 2020 suggests that crypto sentiment has indeed swung positive. Those who didn’t pick up alts in December (or earlier) may have missed the best opportunity to do so, though seen in the greater scheme of things altcoins are still ridiculously cheap and are well worth buying! Just remember that many altcoins are utter rubbish (even some big name alts, hey XRP? Hey BSV?), so choose carefully. Sure, the price of the bad coins will probably Moon when the other alts do, but so did the price of BitConnect once upon a time…
With the apparent change in sentiment, I have begun constructing new positive Fib levels (as opposed to the negative ones I was using in the descending channel – as seen above). These are still in the test phase and will require considerable tuning before they start to yield information worthy of “prediction value”. For what it’s worth, my positive Fib levels look like this for now:
I will probably keep the positive Fib levels away from my primary BTC chart for the time being, until such a time as I have confirmed that the descending channel is no longer governing BTC’s price movement. Adding too much data to a chart just becomes confusing and is undesirable, the fewer lines there are on a chart, the more I can see.
Conclusion:
As described in my older posts, I expect BTC to now hover just above my Long-term Base Trendline for the foreseeable future – probably most of 2020. At some stage (or possibly stages) BTC will rise sharply up from that line and we will have another bull market – probably an unbelievably strong record-breaking one. Maybe it won’t be one big one, but rather a series of smaller bull runs, much like the mini-run we saw in mid-2019.
Whatever the outcome, I remain more bullish on BTC than ever before. I’m a long-term investor, when I buy something I’m looking at least five years into the future, more likely a decade or longer. I got into crypto because I saw the long-term potential of decentralised blockchain technology, a potential which will surely be realised.
I think that 2020 will be the year that the masses warm up to the idea of BTC, this will be the year that Bitcoin moves from “geek money” to “legitimate alternative investment”.
Remember that crypto is only a part of a balanced portfolio. I believe that crypto is very important, but I also believe in not putting all one’s eggs in one basket. You can, for example, be a fan of both Bitcoin AND Gold, or even Bitcoin and Stocks – don’t let short-sighted fools like Schiff of Buffett polarise your views.
I wish you all a merry 2020, and I look forward to interacting with all of you wonderful blockchain-friendly visionaries over the course of the year.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Lat month, gold fell below the psychological whole number of $1500 and was 5% down from the 6-year-peak reached in September due to profit taking and investors wanting to take on more risks. But the charts told you where the sellers were going to step before hand and for that matter where the buyers were going to step in before hand as well based on the monthly supply and demand zones.
Gold never did hit the monthly demand, missed the zone by $5 and has since rallied. The US air strike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump that killed Qassem Soleimani, has been the catalyst not only for gold, but all the other precious metals as well.
But if you missed the rally in gold, don’t worry, according to one article I read this morning, gold is due for a pull back.
Gold is almost guaranteed to record losses in the next two weeks, if history is any guide.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the yellow metal soared to 86 on Monday, well above the level of 70 that typically suggests securities are overbought. Previously, there have been only three times since 2000 when the RSI rose above 85, and in each instance bullion fell over the next 10 trading days. The loss averaged 1% compared with a gain of 7% over the previous 10 session.
To be sure, in all three occasions — October 2010, February 2016 and June 2019 — gold eventually resumed its rally. But the momentum had slowed. Gold performs best when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions, the bulk of the moves in rates and the dollar may be over for now. And the same is probably true for the bounce in gold, at least in the short term.
From my perspective, there is only one reason why gold will pull back and that’s because price are in a monthly supply zone.
Supply and demand zones can often indicate institutional buying and selling. The big market participants cannot just enter one trade at once, they need to slowly build their position over time. And often their positions are so large that they will absorb most unfilled orders before price make big and explosive moves on price charts.
Take for instance the daily supply at $1560. Price entered the daily supply and two days later shot down, but when price returned to the zone several months later, well there weren’t any unfilled orders remaining at that level.
On Sunday, price gapped up into a monthly supply zone and has sense formed a shooting star candle, which is is a bearish and signals a reversal.
But again, the shooting star only formed because the Smart Money was able to fill, unfilled orders at that level. Ideally, what I would like to see is price breach the monthly supply at $1600, pull back, then move higher to the monthly supply at $1700. But this may or may not happen in that order. So if you missed the rally and want to get long, two level to consider are the daily demand at $1520, but I think the better level to go long is at $1475.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Their Imperial and Royal Highnesses Archduke Sandor and Archduchess Herta Margarete of Austria Prince & Princess of Tuscany Royal Prince & Princess of Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia invited President Vít Jedlička and the First Lady Jana for a private reception to discuss the constitution of Liberland as well as the foreign affairs of our newborn nation. Other topics included collaboration between the Flame of Peace foundation and the Liberland Aid Foundation.
Earlier in 2019, a former hedge fund manager, Whitney Tilson said Tesla will be below $100 by the end of 2019. At the time, Tesla was trading at $295, but Whitney felt Musk has no more rabbits to pull out of his hat and therefore it was all downhill from there. Whitney also felt for the first time, the number of investors losing faith in Musk is starting to exceed the number of investors. Two months, Tesla announced that was looking to raise almost $3 billion in debt and equity, with Elon buying $25 million in stock as good faith, upping Elon’s stake in the company to 20%.
One of the more famous short sellers is Jim Chanos. Jim Chanos is an American investment manager and currently serves as president and founder of Kynikos Associates, a New York City registered investment advisor who is focused on short selling.
Jim is the same person that made headlines when he said Grubhub was a short due to Grubhub’s inability to make any money on each order. Weeks later, Grubhub announced dismal earnings and the stock tanked.
Regarding Tesla, there were rumors that Jim Chanos covered his shorts on Tesla, but it was in fact just a rumor. What concerns Jim is that Tesla’s valuation within a capital intensive business, making cars. Jim thinks the Model S is a great car, but the competition is knocking on the door. In addition, he feels demand for the Model 3 in North America has peaked. And lastly, Jim feels Elon’s behavior is “promotional,” meaning he promises the world, but under delivers.
Short sellers have long targeted Tesla shares and currently have almost a $10 billion bet against the Tesla according to data from the financial analytics firm S3 Partners. The 28 million shares shorted amount to 21% of total shares outstanding, according to S3.
But there is one bull, who has been bullish on Tesla for many years.
Catherine’s firm focuses disruptive technologies and thinks electric there will be millions and millions of cars on the road faster than people realize. She believe Tesla isn’t a car company, but a technology company, Tesla is one of her fund’s largest holdings. In February of 2018 she went on CNBC and said she believes Tesla could hit $4000 and that her bear case was $600. In recent weeks, she went back on CNBC and reiterated her targets for Tesla.
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares gained 3% on Friday after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter delivery numbers. The electric vehicle stock is now up 99% in just the past six months, but Tesla short sellers are seemingly still not convinced the rally will last.
Tesla reported 112,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating consensus analyst estimates of 106,000 vehicles. For the full year, Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019, up 50% from 2018. The 367,500 deliveries was on the low end of the company’s 2019 guidance range of between 360,000 and 400,000 deliveries.
On Friday, S3 Partners analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky said there are still 27.64 million shares of Tesla held short, a position worth about $11.89 billion. That short interest represents about 20.6% of Tesla’s float.
If the current price action doesn’t scare the Shorts, Tesla delivered the first China-made Model 3 one week ago. During their fourth quarter earnings call, Tesla announced that factory has already demonstrated production run-rate of 3,000 units per week and they have the necessary means to get to 150,000 units / year or 40% of Tesla’s current annualized global deliveries.
The fact that price broke out last month, the chart suggest the Shorts are due in for more pain ahead.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
The first recap of the year and what a week it’s been. Not in terms of price developments but rather quality articles and crypto discussions/narratives. This recap contains only a small fraction of the great material to emerge this week as we launch into cryptos second decade.
Who really knows if 2020 will be a good year for crypto investors? It’s simply impossible to say with certainty. However, what does seem reasonable to assert is that this will be cryptos decade. The 2020s will see crypto projects move from development to mainstream application. Many, indeed most, will fail but the precious few that make the transition from promising tech to utilized product/service will be a very big deal indeed.
Oh, and Happy 11th Birthday Bitcoin.
Picks of the Week
Nic Carter on BTC is a great way to kick off your crypto-themed researched in 2020. This article exploring some of the messianic aspects of BTC is also a fascinating read. To round-off check out this piece by Bloomberg discussing China’s rollout of a state-sponsored crypto.
Another crypto week behind us. An incredibly exciting year ahead. See you once again down this ever-deepening rabbit hole next week.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
