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ETN technical analysis

October 10, 2019 Published by

ETNseen from the 1W temporality we can observe how the price 1 month ago broke up the descending wedge causing an impulse of 4 bullish candles, the previous candle managed to close above the resistance located at 0.00000048, indicated in the chart above by the horizontal dark blue color, the closing has been with little volume, but the bulls have managed to mark signal continuation, the current candle is retreating in search of greater demand for the next move, so we should see a retreat into the area of demand located between the price range of 0.00000038 – 0.00000039, in this zone the price could find the necessary demand for a strong rebound of the price, the structure would be forming us a very necessary HL to determine if the price will continue rising, however, the price could also retreat to the zone of weekly demand located at 0.00000033, where the price would make us a double floor on the horizontal indicated in the graph above in black, if the price fails to hold the support and closes below that level, then we would have a new LL to the support located at 0.00000019.

ETN seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see how the price in its retreat has formed a bearish “leg”, so we should one more as a result of that pattern, the key support level is located at 0.00000038, if we get a rebound in that zone, the price should have a strong bullish momentum that moves the price above the resistance located at 0.00000048 to achieve our profit targets, the first profit target is located at 0.00000058, while the second profit target is located at 0.00000070.

In conclusion, ETN has dropped a large percentage since the month of March this year 2019, now the price is showing trend reversal signal, we still need confirmation that the price will form an HL, this would be a great buyback signal to continue to rise, the long-term profit target is located within the price range of 0.00000108 – 0.00000115, indicated in the 1W chart by a light blue rectangle, however, if the price falls below 0.00000033, it is very possible that the price will form a new LL towards the support located at 0.00000019, therefore, I recommend to follow the price action in 1D and always use stop loss in your trades to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin Price Clears First Hurdle

October 10, 2019 Published by

Few days back we looked at bitcoin price as it neared the 7400 area again. Since then price got a boost and rallied with yesterday’s candle giving a nice push through the 8400 area, which is where price stalled out on the last bounce.

Ideal situation is we stay above 8400 before making a run at the prior support level of 9400. There are some prior tops from earlier in the year at 8700 as well so we could see some struggle there first.

Patience is Key

Downside remains the same. 7600 area is support. I’m not initiating any new positions here as the upside is nearly the same amount as the potential downside. Still holding my adds from the past couple weeks at 8400 and 7800. 9400 is my first profit target.

Atlantis Won’t Save Ethereum Classic

October 10, 2019 Published by

ETC is a cryptocurrency that was the result of a hard fork of the Ethereum network in July 2016. A “fork” is a change to the software of the digital currency that creates two separate versions of the blockchain with a shared history.

In May 2016, the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), lauched by the Ethereum community, went for a crowd token sale to fund its development. After raising $150 MM, a flaw in DAO’s code was exploited by attackers and more than $50 million was drained out of DAO’s funds. A hard fork, ETC was implemented on the Ethereum that made the hacked transaction invalid.

One of the main difference between Ethereum and ETC is the coin supply. Ethereum has a uncapped total, but fixed yearly supply. ETC is set to between 210 MM and 230 MM ETCs. Also, Ethereum is planning to move to proof of stake and ETC is not willing to make. It appears ETC doesn’t have the same size or engaged community like Ethereum based on DApps and ICO launchings. Lastly and probably most importantly, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has no intent of supporting ETC.

Atlantis was successfully implemented on the Ethereum Classic (ETC) blockchain earlier this month, bringing more compatibility with Ethereum (ETH). However, development on the ETC chain remains several months behind ETH, with very little activity over the past six months.

Source

As we all know communities are vital to the sustainability of a blockchain, but equally important, if not more important is the development taking place on a blockchain. Without development, a blockchain is sure to loss ground against other competing blockchain and is also guaranteed to loss its user base.

So where is price headed next, lets go to the charts to find out? Price as been hovering between $2 and $10 since the beginning of 2019.

However, the chart suggests price is heading down to the weekly demand at $2.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Key Concepts 11 – What is Libertarianism?

October 9, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 57th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-key-concepts-11-what-is-libertarianism/id1441492450?i=1000452829550

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-im5ke-c296b9

Transcript

Key Concepts 11 – What is Libertarianism?

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. Today’s installment seeks to give a general overview of Libertarianism a world view that has clearly influenced the early development of cryptocurrencies and which continues to underpin concepts such as Bitcoin Maximalism.

To be absolutely clear, Libertarians are not unified in their views – differences in key beliefs do, of course, exist but with that caveat in mind, we can paint a very broad picture of a typical Libertarian framework.

The Individual as Self-Sovereign

At the core of Libertarianism is a fundamental belief in the primacy of individual autonomy and freedom. The expression of which is the right to do as you please without the interference of an external authority. Security of life, liberty, and property are akin to a motto for Libertarians.

Order through Spontaneity

Libertarians would argue that order arises naturally as individual actors interact and of necessity, co-operate to achieve their own purposes. They contend that the most fundamental aspects of human society such as the ability to communicate (language), conduct trade and develop codes of conduct (or generalized law) have arisen without the direct supervision of a central authority. Civil society in their view is not the construct of an imposed order but rather the natural consequence of collective human interaction over time.

Law as Respect for the Rights of Others

Libertarianism is not a call to anarchic chaos (though a strand of Libertarianism does espouse just this) but a belief that the rule of law emerges through the right of individuals to freely pursue their own ends while also respecting the right of others to do so.

The Abolition or Limiting of Large State Government

Libertarians reject the exclusive right of central authorities to define morality, legality and individual action. They argue that centralizing bodies are always at heart -corrupt – seeking ultimately only to extend both their control and dominance throughout the society they oversee. This avarice applies to all areas of life whether it be financial, moral or political. Libertarians, therefore, look to ever smaller units of organization as more productive for both the individual and society. Thus, city-state over nation-state, nation-state over international body and so on.

Free Markets

Economic activity should be free of central oversight -the market will find its own balance and solutions will arise naturally over time. Central banks, fractional reserve lending, tariffs, and taxes have no place in the Libertarian model.

A Rejection of Force

Libertarians refute the right of the state to coerce either its own citizenry or the citizens of another nation. Under their model of organization – standing state-sponsored armies would cease to exist along with the removal of the ability of a central body ‘to force’ compliance.

The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency – the rule of none but the organization of many offers obvious parallels to many core Libertarian beliefs.

It’s worth noting that Libertarianism has never been meaningfully implemented at scale and ultimately it remains a theory awaiting an opportunity.

Thanks for listening.

Resources

How Libertarianism Works
https://people.howstuffworks.com/libertarianism1.htm

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/libertarianism/

What is Libertarianism?
https://www.libertarianism.org/essays/what-is-libertarianism

Unusual Options Activity In SPDR Gold Shares ETF ,GLD

October 9, 2019 Published by

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver on “Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy.”  He reiterated and tried to assure the crowd that the economy remains strong and the Fed supports keeping the economic expansion going.

Image result for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Tuesday in Denver

Fed Powell also addressed the repo scare from a couple of weeks ago were overnight repo lending dried up.  Taskmaster4450le spoke about this today in his post title, 

Where Are People Going To Hide?

Turning to short-term funding markets, Powell said “a range of factors” might have caused the turmoil seen last month when the cost of short-term borrowing spiked as firms scrambled to get funding.

Regardless the cause, Powell said it was now time for the Fed to increase the size of its balance sheet. He said the central bank may purchase short-term Treasury bills.

Some analysts call this a “soft” form of quantitative easing, because the Fed buys these securities from the market, but Powell bristled at this description.

“I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase program that we deployed after the financial crisis,” he said.

Source

During the Great Recession QE is injected tons of money into the economy by buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities in hopes of jump starting the economy.  And we are still feeling the effects of QE from ten years ago because money poured into the stock market which has been artificially inflated throughout the years through all the buyback programs (Apple is one of the biggest culprit).  At some point, the bubble will pop, prices will fall and money will migrate in to precious metals (and potential cryptocurrencies).

According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed ETFs bought 75 metric tons of the gold worth almost $4 billion in September.  The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world’s largest and most liquid gold-backed fund, bought 43 tons more bullion during the 30 days.

This is the Smart Money directly at work and they are adding leverage to their investments/trades.  Today I noticed unusual options activity in GLD.   The Smart Money bought over 6000 call options with a strike price at $149 that expire in March 2020. 

This is on top of the 7000 call options they bought yesterday. 

I can’t say I have seen call options going out this far, but this trade set-up has plenty of time of being profitable as the chart suggests the next target for GLD is the $152.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

IOTX technical analysis

October 8, 2019 Published by

IOTX seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price when arriving at the diagonal support of the major figure, indicated in the chart above by the red diagonal, has started to change its momentum upwards creating a bullish closing in the previous candle and a quick continuation of the movement during today, the series of candles look pretty good to continue its movement upwards, however, we also see that the current candle is finding resistance at 0.00000079 leaving a considerable wick above this level, so it is very possible that we will see a reversal in the movement and then continue in search of our profit targets, the first target is located within the price range of 0.00000114 – 0.00000142, marked on the graph within the light blue rectangle, the second target gain is located at 0.00000183, marked on the graph by the horizontal black color.

IOTX seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles, we see the strong vertical impulse that has had these days, this can not be very consistent so to wait for a bass candles should be the safest in the coming days, the range I have delimited in the chart above by the 2 small horizontal dark blue, the resistance marked at 0.00000079 and the support marked at 0.00000061, the price should move within those levels and then try to continue with another bullish movement that reaches our first target, in the chart I have drawn the possible trajectory that should follow the price during the journey, the RSI indicator gives us a signal of overbought after having shot to break the bull pennant formed within the indicator, this is a signal of reversal.

In conclusion, IOTX has escaped me in its initial movement, now the safest would be to wait for a new entry into the price range mentioned above, we could have the following momentum and take profits within the price range of 0.00000114 – 0.00000142, however, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D, if the price closes below 0.00000061 we could fall to 0.0000050, so we must be very careful to avoid invalidations.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

BAT technical analysis

October 7, 2019 Published by

BAT seen from the temporality of 4H we can see how the previous candle has closed below the key support located at 0.00002387, the price has tried to make a pullback recovery, however, has not managed to test the zone correctly to confirm it as support, now the price could go in search of the demand zone at 4H located at 0.00002254, if you do not find enough strength to push up, increase the odds of a reversal into the next zone of demand located within the price range of 0.00002107 – 0.00002149 indicated in the chart above by a blue rectangle, in that zone of demand the price would be throwback us corresponding to the break of the major figure in 1D.

BAT seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe from a broader perspective the current movement of candles, we see how the price during its bearish movement was put into a parallel channel that was finally broken up during the closing of the weekly candle, the price after having found support at 0.00001614 achieved the necessary momentum to make the bullish movement that has achieved the recovery of the low range of the major figure located at 0.00002349, as I mentioned before, the price should make the reversal that tests the diagonal support of the parallel channel indicated in the chart by the dark blue diagonals, once the test is done correctly, we should have an upward impulse towards our first gain target located at 0.00002860 indicated in the chart by the black horizontal, our second target is located at 0.00003138, also indicated in the chart by a black horizontal.

In conclusion, the price action currently indicates a retracement, the first zone where it should find demand to follow its bullish movement is located within the price range of 0.00002107 – 0.00002149, if the price does not hold the support and confirms a much retracement May, then the price could fall to 0.00001800, even find strength in the previous support located at 0.00001614, it is still too early to determine with greater certainty the next short term move for BAT, an ABC pattern has been formed, we should have a similar retracement pattern or one of 5 waves, so I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D, always use stop loss in your trades to avoid invalidations during the move.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

D.R.E.A.M – Dollars Rule Everything Around Me (Intermarket Analysis)

October 7, 2019 Published by

Intermarket analysis is a powerful tool that gives traders/investors a macro predictive direction of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Intermarket analysis states that all asset classes are interrelated and that you can’t definitively determine the direction of one asset class without examining the other asset classes.

There are several key relationships that bind these four markets together. These relationships include:

  • The INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds.
  • The INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks.
  • The POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities.
  • The INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities.

NOTE:

A rising Dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices because many commodities are priced in Dollars, such as oil. Bonds benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces inflationary pressures. Stocks can also benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces the costs for raw materials.

Gold is sort of a commodity.  It’s a hard asset and mined like any other metal.  However, it behaves more like a monetary asset, especially against the US dollar. As a rule, when the price of the US dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down and vice versa. However, while gold typically has an inverse relationship to the dollar, it’s not always the case.

The past year has been somewhat surreal in the gold market, as we have the rare occurrence of the dollar rising in somewhat slow fashion while gold bullion has appreciated about $300 per ounce to trade near $1,500. Historically, a rising dollar and rising gold bullion haven’t gone together, but the distortions that have come with global quantitative easing policies are to blame for the breakdown in this inverse relationship.

Moreover, if the Fed is cutting the fed funds rate and the European Central Bank is accelerating QE due to the bad economic numbers from the Old Continent, the dollar will not decline, as the interest-rate differentials are still in favor of the greenback.

Still, the excess reserves in the global financial system, which are a function of QE policies by the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Fed, are what has given gold enthusiasts the hope that we will make fresh all-time highs in gold bullion

Source

So this US Dollar and Gold correlation may last a bit longer as both have more room to the upside before hitting monthly supply zones, which means they could fall together as well once they both reach the monthly supply zones.

US Dollar

Gold

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: WXY Double Combo possible terminations zones

October 7, 2019 Published by

Long time since I posted my last post about BITCOIN , I think last time was on August 24th and I talked about the evolution of a complex WXY Double Combo correction.

Answering to a request of @beiker, I am going to show you what I think can be the possible scenario currently on-going.

The Y leg was in doubt that time, we were either thinking a possible triangular shape or a Flat configuration in order to end the wave II of BITCOIN.

However, it seems that the most likely, in my opinion, is a finalization of the correction by a FLAT configuration for the “Y” leg:

In my opinion, currently we have 2 possible termination areas probabilistically speaking:

  • The area around the 100% of the FIBO length of the wave “W”, corresponding to 7400 USD
  • The area around 5500 USD which is around the 127% of the FIBO length of wave W

Of course, the volume is so small that I would no enter in any LONG position till a clear increase of this variable will become a fact.

@toofasteddie

Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Bitcoin Making Us Sweat a Little Bit

October 7, 2019 Published by

At this point I don’t think anyone wants to see bitcoin break the 7,600 area support. There is alot of downside potentially from there and would mean a ton of buy order got eaten up.

So after Sunday’s down move we see price floating not far from that level today and it probably makes us all sweat just a little bit.

The good news is if price can hold this level again then it becomes a rather major support in the near-term and can act as a solid bottom for a potential run higher when bitcoin is good and ready.

When that is we can only guess. The 2020 halving could provide a catalyst as price runs up into it but that is still a ways off to expect it could happen now.

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