Yesterday and specially today we are finally seeing a good move upwards on the STEEM price action and also on other “traditional” altcoins as MONERO, SIACOIN and NEM that were stagnant lately.
Despite we are still far below the 50 Days Moving Average (50DMA) it is really a good signal.
The 50DMA is one of the main tools/indicators used by the traders. STEEM will need to break that line for a few days in order to reaffirm a consolidation state and a initial indication of a possible Reversal.
Typically people used to trade around this line, because a breakout upwards very often indicates a Bullish Scenario while downwards is, of course Bearish, however we have to be very careful here because there are many traps already “programmed ” around the breakout.
So, in order to consider STEEM out of “Bears Jaws” we have to break that line and stay around or above for a 3 or 4 days more.
I’m not trading STEEM at all but buying small quantities these days however I am crossing fingers to see this scenario occurring soon.
@toofasteddie
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
Intermarket analysis is a powerful tool that gives traders/investors a macro predictive direction of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Intermarket analysis states that all asset classes are interrelated and that you can’t definitively determine the direction of one asset class without examining the other asset classes.
There are several key relationships that bind these four markets together. These relationships include:
The INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds.
The INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks.
The POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities.
The INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities.
NOTE:
A rising Dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices because many commodities are priced in Dollars, such as oil. Bonds benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces inflationary pressures. Stocks can also benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces the costs for raw materials.
Gold is sort of a commodity. It’s a hard asset and mined like any other metal. However, it behaves more like a monetary asset, especially against the US dollar. As a rule, when the price of the US dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down and vice versa. However, while gold typically has an inverse relationship to the dollar, it’s not always the case.
The past year has been somewhat surreal in the gold market, as we have the rare occurrence of the dollar rising in somewhat slow fashion while gold bullion has appreciated about $300 per ounce to trade near $1,500. Historically, a rising dollar and rising gold bullion haven’t gone together, but the distortions that have come with global quantitative easing policies are to blame for the breakdown in this inverse relationship.
Moreover, if the Fed is cutting the fed funds rate and the European Central Bank is accelerating QE due to the bad economic numbers from the Old Continent, the dollar will not decline, as the interest-rate differentials are still in favor of the greenback.
Still, the excess reserves in the global financial system, which are a function of QE policies by the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Fed, are what has given gold enthusiasts the hope that we will make fresh all-time highs in gold bullion
So this US Dollar and Gold correlation may last a bit longer as both have more room to the upside before hitting monthly supply zones, which means they could fall together as well once they both reach the monthly supply zones.
US Dollar
Gold
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
On Tuesday the Fed Powell will discuss US monetary policy and on Weds will announce whether he is keeping interest rates on hold or dropping them. In July Fed Powell lowered interest rates for the first time in a decade. Wall Street is expecting the same on Weds, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-basis point cut. If Fed Powell doesn’t continue to cut rates, many on Wall Street (and Trump) are saying the Feds will cause the next recession.
Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions. When interest rates fall, bond prices rise and when market interest rates rise, bonds fall (which is known as interest rate risk).
Lets say a treasury bond offers a 5% coupon rate, and one year later, interest rates fall to 4%. The bond will still pay a 5% coupon rate, making it more valuable than new bonds paying just a 4% coupon rate. If you sell the 5% bond before it matures, that bond will be in demand, so that bond will sell at a higher price. But what if interest rates rise from 5% to 6% If you sell the 5% bond, it will be competing with new treasury bonds that offer a 6% coupon rate. That 5% bond will be in less demand and will sell at a lower price.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.
So, if Treasury yields are about to fall, that should mean that bond prices are about to rise. Similarly to the downtrend in place for yields that has yet to be broken, the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) – despite selling off last week – is still above the uptrend that has been in place for most of the past year.
As Worth pointed out, each time the TLT has come close to that trend line, it has bounced off of it to the upside, and he’s wagering on it happening again.
“The betting is that TLT is going to be good for a bounce. So, I don’t see rates going more than about 1.95%, we’re close enough at this point. I think one wants to start rebuying TLT,” Worth said.
So based on the monthly chart Cart Worth’s trendline is just below the Gap Fill. However, the chart suggests to wait for price to come down to the monthly demand at $131.50 and go long.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
S&P 500 Smart Money Sentiment 9/12/19 – Is The Silver Breakout A Fakeout???
The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a weekly market report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) listing the positions held by commercial traders and the “Smart Money”, the hedge funds and bank institutions in various futures markets in the United States. Since the COT measures the net long and short positions held by speculative traders and commercial traders, it is a great resource to gauge sentiment in the Markets.
Since breaking out of the long term down trendline in July, Silver has climbed more than 30%. However, last week, Silver formed an inverted hammer candle on the weekly chart. A hanging man is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that occurs after a price advance and hints at the reversal of an uptrend.
So is Silver’s breakout a fakeout?
Well, for the Silver Bulls out there, what we see is as price is increasing, so is the open interests, meaning the Smart Money is buying long futures contracts.
The buying frenzy is also being supported by the bullish sentiment, which has increased from 10% in June to almost 70% today.
But the raw data to put the Silver Bulls at ease. There was selling back in May, but since then, the Smart Money net positions continue to increase. Thus, the Smart Money has confirmed, this isn’t a fakeout, but a pullback before the continuation higher.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
The financial theme in 2019
has been the inverted yield curve. Why
is it so important…it’s only predicted the 5 or 6 recessions, meaning it has
given no false signals going back 50 years.
Another signal of a pending recession came last week when the US purchasing-managers
index contracted to 49.9 in August from 50.4 in July, the first such shrinkage
in almost 10 years.
The discussion of inverted yield curves is so important that I decided to repost my post on the topic from more than a year ago…withouth further ado.
A bond is like an IOU given to you by a bank. When you lend the bank money, they’ll give you back that same amount at a later time along with a fixed amount of interest. For example, if you bought a two-year bond for $100 with a 2% annual return on it, you get $104.04 back after two years. Bonds have a number of benefits that justify the small rate of return. Government bonds are stable investments and bonds issued by the US government have never defaulted…YET.
The term yield curve refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. Typically, short-term interest rates are lower than long-term rates reflecting higher yields for longer-term investments due to the higher risks associated with long dated maturities. Also, in a growing economy, investors demand higher yields at the long end of the curve to compensate for the opportunity cost of investing in bonds versus other asset classes.
As the economic cycle begins to slow, the upward slope of the yield curve tends to flatten as short-term rates increase and longer yields stay stable or decline slightly. As concerns of an impending recession increase, investors tend to buy long Treasury bonds as a safe harbor from falling equities markets. As more and more investors begin to buy long-term bonds, the Federal Reserve lowers the yield rates. Since investors aren’t buying a lot of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, the Fed will make those yields higher to attract them. Eventually, the yield on short-term bills rises higher than the yield on long-term bonds, and the yield curve inverts.
The inverted yield curve is the single greatest indicator of a coming bear market. The inverted yield curve has predicted the past 5 recessions going back to the late 1970’s. Every time the yield curve turns negative, a recession has occurred in the near future. Since 1956, equities have peaked six times after the start of an inversion in the yield curve and the economy has fallen into recession within seven to 24 months.
The most recent inverted yield curve first appeared in August 2006, as the Fed raised short-term interest rates in response to overheating equity, real estate and mortgage markets. The inversion of the yield curve preceded the peak of the S& P 500 in October 2007 by 14 months and the official start of the recession in December 2007 by 16 months, eventually leading to the Great Recession in which the S&P 500 dropped 50%.
This next inversion is upon us right now. Based on history, I’m predicting the yield curve will invert by the end of the year, the Markets will peak in 2019 and we will be in a recession in 2020 (a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters).
However, this time around balance sheets of the Fed and Treasury extremely over leveraged right from the start. Our national debt over $20 trillion dollars and the Fed’s balance sheet at $4.5 trillion. Thus, when the yield curve inverts for the third time this century, you can expect unprecedented chaos in markets and the economy to follow shortly after because the yield curve will not only invert at a much lower starting point than at any other time in history. This represents a huge opportunity for those that can identify these inflection points and know where to invest. Be sure I will be here to tell you those opportunities and how to protect your capital.
yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.
For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:
During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI
Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:
…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:
The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….
… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:
We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:
The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…
If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…
…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
Central banks have delivered 32 interest-rate cuts globally this year as a worsening U.S.-China trade war drags down global economic growth. Swap markets suggest we’re not even at the halfway mark for cuts yet.
Traders are expecting much more. Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more rate cuts, assuming central banks maintain their current trajectories in easing. Those cuts could total another 16% in global reductions.
And when it comes to the US, the Equity and Bond markets have already priced in further rate cuts. The Fed’s target rate range is between 2% and 2.25% after a cut of 25 basis points in July. If Fed Powell doesn’t continue to cut rates, many on Wall Street (and Trump) are saying the Feds will cause the next recession. A big part of this thesis is when the Feds raised rates four times in 2018 with the last one causing that massive sell-off in December (Merry Christmas).
The US Feds are in a tough spot because the US economy is actually still growing…just at a slower pace. The economy expanded by 2% in the second quarter and consumer confidence is still near all-time highs. Based on the historical correlation between the stock market and consumer confidence once the index hits 100, consumer confidence may be about to dip, which could hit the retail space hard and evidently the stock market.
But what’s going on around the world can’t be ignored, the global economy is slowing down. And probably more important, the invert yield curve can’t be ignored either because it’s only predicted the last 5 or 6 recessions.
And so, from a fundamental standpoint, based on the continued rate cuts around the world, I expect the 10 yr bond to continue to move higher over time. However, from a technical standpoint, price is currently in a monthly supply zone. The chart suggests price will pull back, before moving higher.
On the daily chart, price should at least stall at these levels, if not react and move higher.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
During economic troubled times, Smart Money rotates into Utilities and REITs because they act like bonds, meaning the stock dividends are equivalent to coupon rates, the yield paid by a fixed-income security. However, let me expand on this a bit more. Utilities and REITs are usually drowning in debt, but during economic troubled times, interest rates go down, so debt obligations put less of a strain on cash flow and more cash flow means consistent payouts of dividends. However, let me expand no this a bit more. Investors are looking for a return on their capital.
As of June 2019, the dividend yield for the S&P 500 was 1.85%. This is below the historical average of 4.41% and close to the all-time low of 1.11% observed in August 2000.
So if investor can get a decent return on their capital from the equity markets, can’t get a decent return on their capital from bonds because interest rates continue to decline, the next best option is dividends. The barriers of entry are tough in the Utilities and the REITs sector, so with little competition and residual income, dividends are payout out consistently.
Since I wrote that post two months ago, XLU, the SPDR Utilities Sector ETF an the XLRE, the SPDR Real Estate Sector ETF are both up 8%, while the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF is down 2%.
My favorite REIT right now is Innovative Industrial Properties
but I’m waiting for price to get to the $64 level before I buy.
A REIT worth keeping an eye on is the ETF, the Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure Real Estate (SCTR) which offers investors exposure to U.S. companies that generate the majority of their revenue from real estate operations in the data and infrastructure sector. Demand for data storage real estate is being driven by cloud, cybersecurity and 5G communication services. So you know this REIT has a bright future.
The chart suggests to buy on a pull back at the weekly demand at $29.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
I truly believe that one day this is going to happen. Passive investing now accounts for more than HALF of the US stock market and is growing. The movement has officially been made and investors do not use brokers anymore as they run to passive ETFs and index funds. This has been created just over THE PAST 10 YEARS.
At the beginning of the bull run active investments held nearly a 3 to 1 advantage over passive fund assets. That has shrank to…almost ZERO ADVANTAGE present day.
Courtesy of CNBC and Morningster
This type of investing has been killing it over the past decade and continues to gain traction. I believe that at some point this will be a HUGE PROBLEM. Once the next major downturn in the stock market starts, and these PASSIVE inflows slow, then stop, and become outflows, you are going to have a market that may undergo a faster elevator down that has ever been seen.
Over the past 10 years, the passive inflows has helped push the market higher and higher, over and over again. Well when the tide turns…the passive inflows will not push the market down over and over again, they will all run for the exit at once.
Like every other economy in the world, the Japanese economy is slowing down. But the Japan has one competitive advantage over most countries. Japan is a very large exporter. Now you might say China is a large exporter as well. But Japan has been one for many decades and as a result, has become the largest net creditor to the world. So during times of uncertain, capital flows out of other currencies and into the Japanese yen, causing it to strengthen. This is way the Yen is considered a safe haven currency.
With continued rife between the US and China, an inverted yield curve in the US, negative German bond rates, the Brexit deadline fast approaching, I remain super bullish on the Japanese Yen. Lets go to the charts to see where the Yen might be headed next.
Monthly Chart (Curve Timeframe) – monthly supply is at 0.0103 and monthly demand at 0.00805.
Weekly Chart (Trend Timeframe) – the trend is sideways with upside momentum.
Daily Chart (Entry) – the chart suggests to go long if and once price breaches the the daily supply at 0.00953.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
