STEEM: we should have hit the bottom already…

yep, I know what you think right now… this may be just another post trying to bring positive vibes on our beloved STEEM… but definitely, no matter which pair you check right now compared with STEEM, all of them are showing signs of reversal according to a DIVERGENCE on the Daily RSI.

For me the most important currently is to compare STEEM vs BITCOIN on the daily chart and this is what we see today:

During one month STEEM has been ranging between 1550 and 1800 Satoshis, with a light descending trend in overall but with a clear divergence on the RSI

Same is happening if you compare the second most important pair, STEEM vs ETHEREUM:

…and also STEEM vs BINANCE COIN:

The conclusion that I get by observing these three charts and respective divergences on RSI is that STEEM is timidly getting stronger in front of their competitors. worth to say that just around one month ago, STEEM was placed on the 88th position of the Total Market Cap….

… while today, even if the total cap of STEEM has decreased since then, we can see STEEM at the 79th and sometimes reaching below that place:

We can also see that change of trendline if we compare STEEM vs USD:

The price of STEEM is ranging between 0.16 and 0.19 USD since weeks already, RSI is also behaving very similar to the other pairs but, of course, the way the price is decreasing here, in USD, depends at the 95% I would say, to what is going to do BITCOIN in the coming days…

If BTC falls, which is very likely according to my expectations, the complete altcoin market will suffer another hit versus the dollar, included STEEM as well…

…the only thing different here is that STEEM may have reached its bottom versus BITCOIN while others not…

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Passive Investing – The Gift that Keeps Giving…Until it all Vanishes at Once

I truly believe that one day this is going to happen. Passive investing now accounts for more than HALF of the US stock market and is growing. The movement has officially been made and investors do not use brokers anymore as they run to passive ETFs and index funds. This has been created just over THE PAST 10 YEARS.

At the beginning of the bull run active investments held nearly a 3 to 1 advantage over passive fund assets. That has shrank to…almost ZERO ADVANTAGE present day.

Courtesy of CNBC and Morningster

This type of investing has been killing it over the past decade and continues to gain traction. I believe that at some point this will be a HUGE PROBLEM. Once the next major downturn in the stock market starts, and these PASSIVE inflows slow, then stop, and become outflows, you are going to have a market that may undergo a faster elevator down that has ever been seen.

Over the past 10 years, the passive inflows has helped push the market higher and higher, over and over again. Well when the tide turns…the passive inflows will not push the market down over and over again, they will all run for the exit at once.

BITCOIN: Double combo Correction (WXY)

Back form holidays but still not working since we are on the weekend but, finally I have time to analyze the Daily BITCOIN chart in a more accurate manner. I have redone my EW-count and I think I found an structure that will fit with the current situation.

The structure is a Bouble Combo Correction (WXY) which is composed by the combination of three main Legs:

W Leg: Can be any Zig-zag or Flat correction

X Leg: Can be any Zig-zag, Flat , triangle or combo as well

Y Leg: Can be a Zig-zag, Flat or a Triangle

Only one triangle is allowed and it can be formed either on X or in Y but not in both. If it was the case that two triangles were formed at X and Y, the pattern would be different (Double Zig-Zag) with different results, so since the X leg is a ZIG-ZAG, a triangle may be formed on the Y Leg…or not :-)..

So, in my opinion there are two main scenarios in order to end the correction:

  • Y leg ending in a pure Flat Correction: Level of price would be similar or slightly below “W” , i.e. around 9000 USD as the main known support
  • Y leg is a triangle which will push the price lower, in search of the inclined blue line, i.e. 7600 USD

Looks like September is going to be an excellent month for the whole Crypto Market.

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Bond Analysis Report 8/14/19 – More Upside To Come On The 30 Yr Bond

The yield for the longest-dated Treasury bond is now a hair’s breadth away from plumbing its lowest level in history.

Investors said the $22 trillion U.S. government debt market was now approaching this key milestone on a combination of factors including the growing world of negative-yielding government bonds, expectations for Fed easing spurred by rising recession concerns, and the absence of inflation pressures.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +1.26% ended at 2.13% on Monday, following a relentless rally in long-term government bonds in the past few weeks. The 30-year yield is only a few basis points away from its all-time low set in July 2016, when it touched 2.09% after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union.

Source

So what’s the significance of the 30 year bond yield reaching all-time lows? 

Well Interest rates and bond prices are inversely correlated, meaning when one goes up, the other goes down. 

Because a bond’s payout is fixed, as interest rates go up, the existing bond becomes less attractive because people want to buy the new bond that pays more interest.  So to make the existing bond more attractive, the value of that existing bond decreases.

And as the global and US economy continue to slow down, Fed Powell won’t have any choice, but to lower rates again…possible two more times this year.  So I personally expect the 30 year bond to continue to go up in value.

The chart suggests price will move higher to the monthly supply at 174’00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

♻️ 3 Recent Examples of Corporates Which are Working to Counter Climate Risks ♻️

Big Money Starts to Dump Stocks That Pose Climate Risks (Bloomberg)

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  • As climate change related risks are becoming more pronounced, major investment firms have been increasingly pushing companies to address these risks and their role in exacerbating them.
  • This year, almost every major public oil company faced at least one shareholder resolution involving climate change, with proposals winning record support.
  • While most asset managers prefer engagement to divestment, frustration over fruitless discussion and resolutions has also led to a growing divestment campaign.
  • Earlier this year, Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM) reduced its stake in oil giant Exxon by US$300m, using its remaining stake to vote against the reappointment Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods.

Analysis and Comments

  • The whole debate around divestment vs engagement is a potentially divisive one – not so much among asset managers but in discussions with asset owners and particularly retail investors.
  • Over the last few years, it has been interesting to watch the shift in focus, as the engagers have increasingly honed in on the stranded asset risk across a whole range of industries, which has real and tangible implications for value.

Google pledges carbon-neutral shipping, recycled plastic for all devices (Reuters)

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  • Google announced beginning of the week that it would neutralize carbon emissions from delivering consumer hardware by 2020, and include recycled plastics in each of its products by 2022.
  • According to Anna Meegan, the company’s head of sustainability for its devices and services unit, the company’s transport-related carbon emissions per unit fell 40% in 2018 as it increased the use of ships rather than planes in transport.
  • Currently three out of nine products for which the company discloses details online contain recycled plastic (ranging from 20-42%) – which trails behind hardware rival Apple’s sustainability efforts.  

Analysis and Comments

  • The trend may be slow, but for those companies that sell high profile products such as Apple & Google, the pressure to show their green credentials appears to be growing.
  • It is not clear how Google will fully “neutralise carbon emissions from delivery” – initially it looks as if at least part of the solution will be via carbon credits (which will gradually become more & more expensive to buy).
  • Hence longer term, this increase in carbon crédits price could be providing an incentive for the transport sector to accelerate its own shift to low carbon.

Diageo spends £180m on greener African operations (FT)

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  • British spirits maker Diageo is investing £180m into green energy and water recovery solutions such as biomass boilers, solar installations and water recycling systems at 11 of its breweries across Africa.
  • The investment is the company’s largest environmental investment in a decade, and will include £50m in upfront capital for solar, water treatment and biomass equipment, as well as £130m in long-term supply and maintenance contracts.
  • The company’s ultimate goal is to become 100% green and it plans to half its water usage and GHG emissions by 2020 as part of a group-wide commitment. It is also increasing its focus on sourcing locally in, with 78% of agricultural materials used in its 12 breweries across Africa currently sourced from local farmers.

Analysis and Comments

  • Africa contributes c. 13% of Diageo’s global turnover and about half of the company’s beer sales, and a minimum of 20 of the company’s African production facilities are in so-called “water-stressed locations”.
  • Unsurprisingly, water is an essential ingredient in all of Diageo’s brands (90%+ of beer and 60% of spirits) and the company has thus far been able to achieve a c.44% improvement in water efficiency between 2009 and 2018.
  • According to new data from WRI’s Aqueduct tools, 17 countries (including Africa) – home to one quarter of the world’s population – face extremely high levels of baseline water stress, as water withdrawals globally have more than doubled since the 1960s.
  • Of the 17 most water-stressed countries,12 are in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where growing demand and climate change are pushing already constrained countries even further into extreme stress.
  • According to the World Bank, this region has the greatest expected economic losses from climate-related water scarcity (c. 6-14% of GDP by 2050), stressing the importance of pursuing SDG 6 – ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.
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BITCOIN: As expected…

… BITCOIN is now testing the Upper Resistance line within the Bullish Flag.

And, as I wrote in this post a couple of days ago, there are two options, both of them positive:

OPTION 1:

Correction is done and we are in wave three of the continuation of the Uptrend.


OPTION 2:

Still one retest of the lower ground of the Bullish Flag would be expected on (e) around 8250 USD in order to end the II wave in violet, then, strong rebound upwards.


24 Hours Volume seems to support the breakage of the upper resistance and also the RSI on the Daily still show a healthy status since it is moving within the limits.

Trend is our friend so, wait to see next move and decide wisely.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Total Market Decision Point

Putting aside what BITCOIN is doing lately, it is worth to check as well what the TOTAL crypto market does.

It is a fact that BITCOIN is being feed mainly by the altcoins in the present days since doesn’t look that “fresh” FIAT is entering at the market nowadays, that’s why looking at the BITCOIN chart versus USD can be a little bit misleading since there is a lot of selling pressure for BTC by the altcoins side

However, as I wrote yesterday in this post an enormous Bullish Flag has been formed as well at the Total Cryptocurrency market.

Inside this Bull flag there is a count that will fit in and may give you some hopes regarding the end of the correction is probably done. It is a Regular Flat Correction (3-3-5)


The only “but” I see in this possibility is that, in order to be considered as a “Regular Flat correction”, “B” should be just below the start of wave “A”, and, it is but perhaps so much low…

Anyway, let’s consider this count as good, if so, then the correction should be already finished and the Total Crypto Market should has finished already the first wave upwards and working on the third and more powerful wave, something like the following:


Nevertheless, as I said yesterday with the BITCOIN chart, a Bull Flag can promote at least 5 rebounds between its confining lines:


Conversely to BITCOIN’s Volume, the TOTAL MARKET Volume has decreased from the top of the year but not so much compared with the Crypto King and what I see in the Daily RSI indicator is an excellent situation for higher highs:

So, yes, IMO we are now in an important moment according to the Total Market Chart, be ready to experiment a possible sudden Price action, mostly on BITCOIN but also in other big Altcoins afterwards.

Enjoy!


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.


US Interest Rates Analysis Report 8/4/19 – Rates Will Continue To Go Down

The Fed Powell cut interest rate this past week because the Markets demanded it, Trump has been blasting Fed Powell about lowering rates and to keep the party going.  But don’t expect your interest rate on your credit card or car note to go down. The interest rate cut was the federal funds rate that was cut, meaning the rate banks charge each other over short periods.

The last time I spoke about rates, specially the 10 yr bond rates was in May,

US Interest Rates Analysis Report 5/20/19 – Are Rates Eventually Going Higher???

On the monthly chart price breached the up trendline to the downside in December and currently sits in the monthly demand zone at 2.322%.  Interest rates might go up in the short term,

but my bias is that rates will go down longer term because of the macro picture.

In addition to the rate cut, the news of more tariffs on Chinese goods and continued weak US PMI manufacturing data this past week,

Source

the yield on the 10 yr bond is now below 2%. This is a really big deal, because we haven’t seen rates this low in years, a testament that the economy is slowing down and a recession is right around the corner (I’m targeting May of 2020, but by that time, the Markets might be down 20%-30%). So while Fed Powell is saying don’t expect more rate cuts, he won’t have a choice but to continue to cutting rates.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

BITCOIN: could it be an enormous Bullish Flag?

5 consecutive days of green candles already, despite BITCOIN has not increase so much in volume , BTC has broken strongly the Falling Wedge and so, it is going upwards while trying to break another known resistance at 10800 USD right now:

What I can see here is an interesting Flag pattern in formation. Usually this pattern use to provide till 5 rebounds before breaking the upper resistance (a-b-c-d-e) but it is known that also can be broken on the 4th, so at (d).

This is my current scenario: If the upper resistance (red line) is broken powerfully on (d), it would mean that the correction and so the end of the wave II was already done at (c) around 9000 USD… If, by the contrary, BTC finds strong resistance at (d), it would be likely to have another test of the inclined support on (e), ending there the correction…

In a graphical manner, two options, both bullish, of course:

Option 1:


Option 2:

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

BITCOIN: What’s your bet…

Since volume keeps on diminishing and trading activity slows down due to narrowing prices I am trying to get the most positive scenario thus I am considering the possibility of being in a “Falling Wedge” Pattern:

The falling wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes lower lows and lower highs with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making. (Source)

If this pattern is triggered, the most likely result would be the continuation of the trend previous to the pattern, so UPTREND…towards 14000 USD.

But then, you have another pattern in formation, this time is the other face of the coin…

Yep, a very bearish pattern here, pointing towards 4800 USD.

In my opinion, nowadays we have a 50/50 chances on one of the both options so, very difficult to take a decision now… we have to wait for one of the two get triggered and follow the trend.

What about you?

Let’s see what is the opinion of the audience here.

I am curious to read what is your opinion about which of the two proposals are more likely to happen next. I will upvote all the comments on that regards.

Enjoy!

@toofasteddie


Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.