Tag: Commodities

The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a weekly market report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) listing the positions held by commercial traders and the “Smart Money”, the hedge funds and bank institutions in various futures markets in the United States. Since the COT measures the net long and short positions held by speculative traders and commercial traders, it is a great resource to gauge sentiment in the Markets.

In recent weeks gold has hit a six year high and is on the verge of closing above a key psychological level at $1500. Since December, gold is up 15%.  Because of the ongoing trade war between the US and China and now a pending currency war between US and China, Goldman Sachs said last week the risk of a recession is rising. And what is the Smart Money doing, they are rushing into safe havens.

The Smart Money is buying Gold as evidence of open interests increasing, along with the price of gold.

Which has translated into Gold long positions rising for the 9th time in the past 10 weeks.

We haven’t seen this much bullishness in Gold by the Smart Money since 2016.

But this is the chart that does it for me, as it indicates the Smart Money really became bullish on Gold at the beginning of June.

Thus, the chart suggest to go long on Gold during pull backs.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The new report from digital asset management company Coinshares points to the increasing dominance of institutional investors in Bitcoin. At the same time, retail investment in the sector is dwindling. This could have lasting effects on the way Bitcoin’s price behaves in the future.

According to Coinshares, there is a fundamental difference between the price rise of 2017 and the bull market of 2019. They noted that four factors were responsible for the 2017 Bitcoin price frenzy- a spike in Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’, media attention, rise in a number of tweets related to Bitcoin and the corresponding rally in altcoins. This time, none of these factors are visible in the market.

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I’m still remember my 2nd post ever on Steemit,

Wall Street Secrets Revealed #1 – The Hedge Funds Are Coming To Crypto

I talked about the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017 and how Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.

I also talked about the Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds, who are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000.

I also still remember my 11th post ever on Steemit, as it was confirmation that supply and demand works in the Crypto space as well,

Crypto Analysis Report 2-16-18 Bitcoin…Sellers Were Waiting At $10000

Two trillion dollars are on Wall Street, waiting for the pipelines from Wall Street to the Crypto Space to be fully developed. When we talk about Bitcoin hitting $100k even $200k, will it’s going to be the Smart Money’s push into Cryptos that gets price there. Buckle your seat belts, it’s going to be one hell of a ride over the next 5-10 years.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

The planting season in 2019 was historically slow due to wet weather several months ago. The storms left millions of acres unseeded and put corn crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage.  For example, in May, a farmer in Indiana said his corn crop was only 6% planted at the time, but this was the case in most of the Midwestern states as many farmers experienced record flooding across the central United States.

The latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield, as well as a noticeable variation from the July U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.

AccuWeather analysts predict the 2019 corn yield will be 13.07 billion bushels, a decline of 9.3% from 2018 and 5.8% lower than the latest USDA figures. It would be the lowest yield since 2012, a year of a significant drought that saw final corn production numbers plummet to 10.76 billion bushels.

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The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only).  On Monday they report their numbers for corn.

I have no idea what the crop yield is going to be when the report is issued on Monday. Big here is a bigger picture of the corn futures on the weekly chart.

So I will repeat, I have no idea what the results are going to be on Monday, but based on the daily chart, the chart suggests, the results will surprise on the upside, pushing prices down, due to price entering a daily supply as I finish this post.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The last time I posted about gasoline was in late June,

Gasoline Analysis Report 6/27/19 – Will Prices Continue To Rise???

The refinery was the largest and oldest on the East Coast went up in flames, removing 25% of the refining capacity in the Northeast in the process.

The chart suggests if gasoline can rise a bit higher to short (due to gasoline supply concern) price at the daily supply at $2.015. 

In the article I talked indirectly about gasoline being a derivative of oil, which means that if oil rises/falls, gasoline will follow suit.

Retail gasoline prices tend to rise in the spring and peak in the Summer when people drive more frequently.  So the set-up had the seasonality going for it as well since the accident was a month past Memorial Day.

Needless to say price hit the daily supply at $2.015 and fell.

According to AAA, the national average is about $2.69 per gallon now, down from a couple of cents from last week.  I anticipate retail gasoline prices continue to decline in the coming months.   The  gasoline futures’ chart suggests price is heading down to $1.4500

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The only channel I seldom have on is either CNBC or Bloomberg.  While the financial talking heads are talking about the 800 point decline in the DOW, the 10 yr and 30 yr interest rate hitting multi-year lows, the VIX and the impending currency war, nobody is talking about Dr. Copper.

The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for the copper’s ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Rising copper prices imply demand or a growing global economy and declining copper prices imply lack of demand or a slowing global economy.

The focus is increasingly on the damage caused by the havoc of a trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. The broad applications for copper mean it’s particularly vulnerable to the synchronized tailspin being seen in everything from car-making and earth-moving equipment to commercial property and advanced electronic components.

“What the hard data is telling us is that end-use demand is slow and in many places getting kicked quite hard,” Oliver Nugent, a metals strategist at Citigroup Inc., said by phone from London. “China’s commodity-intensive economy is as weak as it’s been in recent history.”

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From a macro perspective, copper stalled out in Jan of 2018 and when trade tariff became a huge topic of discussion, the momentum in copper turned which was confirmed by the trendline break.

Fast forward almost two years later and trade talk is still being discussed and in recent days it’s a matter of who has the bigger stick. However, what’s different today is Germany is pretty much in a recession, global interest rates are at multi year lows and the US just cut rates for the first time in 10 years. Thus, copper is at a level that I’m deeming, “the line in the sand.”

If copper closes below 2.5000 on the monthly chart, look for copper to make its way down to 2.0000.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Silver prices on surged more than 4% on Wednesday, this highest one day return in three years and in the process breached the key psychological $17 level.

although I’m very bullish on Gold,

but I think the red headed step child, Silver will perform better than Gold over the next several years.    The gold/silver ratio is simply the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold.  And when this ratio hits 80, it reverses. 

Since the mid-1990s, the ration has hit 80 four times.  And when it reversed, silver outperformed gold over the next several years. 

The Smart Money is recognizing what’s going on.  They just bought over 85, 000 of the September call options, $17 strike price in SLV. 

SLV is the iShares Silver Trust which seeks to reflect the performance of the price of silver. However, I think SLV is just beginning.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

This past Monday, while the DOW dropped over 800 points, gold rose 1.5% and in the process hit a six year high.  The gain yesterday is on top of the 15%+ gain since December.  Gold has a lot going for itself these days.  We are on the brink of a currency war between the US and China, the British pound may collapse if England leaves the EU and the addition tariffs imposed by Trump isn’t helping the global economy which is slowing down.

The best thing to do in these trying times is to obtain some hard assets if possible in form of gold / silver coins. The next best alternative, besides bitcoin is to invest in funds that mimic the performance of gold.

The 800 lb gorilla gold electronic traded fund is GLD.  It’s the largest fund in the space with over $32 billion in assets under management.

Five month ago I talked about GLD and laid out my projected price action for GLD.

Gold…The “Trade Of The Century”

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Although gold hasn’t broken out yet, from its recent consolidation,

the GLD has broken out.

But don’t chase price, usually breakouts return to origin of the break out. So for those who don’t have any exposure to gold, the chart suggests to go long on the pull back.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.