Bitcoin Technical Analysis: ARE THE BULLS BACK?

Bitcoin just broke above a key resistance at $4,120. It now seems to be acting as support. There’s strong resistance (supply zone) between $4,315 and $4,400.

Looking at the daily chart, we can see price approaching the 50 Day MA. It’s also hitting the top daily Bollinger band. Between the top daily Bollinger band and the $4,400 resistance, bitcoin has some work to do. A break above the 50 Day MA (on the daily chart) would be an extremely bullish sign of strength if confirmed with volume.

In today’s video analysis I discuss where price may be heading next, traps to avoid

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2(b): (The rest of) The Answer

This is a direct continuation of “To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2: The Answer” and the conclusion of this series.

At least for now.

Read the first two instalments here:

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 1: The QuestionTo CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2: The Answer

Now, back to the action:

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2(b): (The rest of) The Answer

Consideration 2: – Volume

The link between volume and price is a strong one. Volume is also one

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2: The Answer

Or at least – My attempt at an answer

This post is directly linked to my post of yesterday: To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 1: The Question – you’ll need to read it for background information if you are to follow this post.

Okay, I have a few important things to say here, each of which is worthy of consideration. Their are four major factors which could be the answer to the question of BTC capitulation; either in isolation or combined with one another.

The first of these is by far the longest to explain. This post will look at the first factor. I will do a follow-up post

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 1: The Question

And it is a question which has occupied a lot of my time lately.

I have spent many hours reading and analysing the charts, trying to find the answer. I have to keep reminding myself of important factors like:

TA is only a guideline, look beyond TADon’t get caught up in bullish hypeDon’t confuse short-term performance with long-term performance

I’ve written a fair amount about capitulation recently. I have repeatedly said that I’m still waiting for a new low in this cycle, but I have also expressed my doubts and suggested other options. I strongly suggest reading this post which details those options: The NEED for CRYPTO to CAPITULATE

With the predicted window

I am participating in the Proof-of-Keys celebration and so should you ✊? HODLers Show of Force ?

I am going to participate in the Proof-of-Keys initiative on January 3rd, and so should you!

Proof-of-Keys

Proof-of-Keys is an initiative started by long-time Bitcoiner Trace Mayer and the concept is simple: On January 3rd, which is exactly 10 years after the first Bitcoin block was mined, all of us will withdraw all of our Bitcoin (and other crypto) from exchanges and similar custodian services into private wallets. The name ‘Proof-of-Keys’ is because the initiative was born out of the idea that exchanges need to prove they actually possess all the crypto that is traded on their exchanges, and no fractional reserve funny business is going on.

I didn’t think that was such a great reason myself. Sure, it’s important but not something I would rally behind per se. Upon further investigation though, I am now convinced and will participate with the event myself and call upon you all to join! Here is why I think you all should participate as well:

  • A celebration of Bitcoin’s 10 years existence
  • To enhance crypto’s vibrant meme and internet-culture (let’s make crypto fun again)
  • By making it part of crypto-culture we help educate newer enthusiasts on the importance, and the how-to, of owning and controlling your own private keys
  • HODLer Show of Force, to make a social/political statement which could show the strength and size of the true crypto community – the HODLers of last resort; those who want crypto not FIAT; the ones who actually give value to the system

The last part is why I am personally riled up about this. In this sour and depressing crypto-winter, it’s time for a ray of hope. Let’s all rally behind one cause and give inspiration to the community in these times of darkness. ? Let’s show how many HODLers and enthusiasts there really are! ?

And there is no reason not to participate really. If you have some crypto on an exchange, like I do (small amount), you probably know you shouldn’t be doing that anyway. You know you need to get it off of the exchange at some point anyway. So why not do it on January 3rd and throw in your small bit of support, if only for the lolz? I can see the potential of this idea going viral, and since it was just discussed on Crypt0’s live-stream it probably is going viral already. Viral internet expressions can have real-world impact, as we have seen many times. On the blockchain everything is visible, and thousands upon thousands of withdrawals to private wallets on January 3rd might give out a powerful signal to the market, and indeed the world as a whole. Should this movement prove to be successful, I believe it will cause the cold sweats of FOMO in many market-bears.

Read more about the Proof-of-Keys annual celebration here.

 

So save the date! January 3rd, 10 years after the start of Bitcoin, is when we celebrate Proof-of-Keys. All you have to do is withdraw your crypto from the exchanges at that date. It doesn’t matter if it’s a lot or just a little – anyone can participate. If you want, you can re-deposit your crypto right back the day after.

 

I already keep most of my crypto on my own wallets, but I will still be withdrawing what little I have left on exchanges. To me this isn’t so much about educating, but more so about the crypto community showing it’s strength. In this nuclear crypto-winter wasteland, it’s time we rally around and raise the flag! ✊?

 

_(Art by: Roy Lichtenstein)_

I am participating in the Proof-of-Keys celebration and so should you ✊? HODLers Show of Force ?

I am going to participate in the Proof-of-Keys initiative on January 3rd, and so should you!

Proof-of-Keys
Proof-of-Keys is an initiative started by long-time Bitcoiner Trace Mayer and the concept is simple: On January 3rd, which is exactly 10 years after the first Bitcoin block was mined, all of us will withdraw all of our Bitcoin (and other crypto) from exchanges and similar custodian services into private wallets. The name ‘Proof-of-Keys’ is because the initiative was born out of the idea that exchanges need to prove they actually possess all the crypto that is traded on their exchanges, and no fractional reserve

I am participating in the Proof-of-Keys celebration and so should you ✊? HODLers Show of Force ?

I am going to participate in the Proof-of-Keys initiative on January 3rd, and so should you!

Proof-of-Keys
Proof-of-Keys is an initiative started by long-time Bitcoiner Trace Mayer and the concept is simple: On January 3rd, which is exactly 10 years after the first Bitcoin block was mined, all of us will withdraw all of our Bitcoin (and other crypto) from exchanges and similar custodian services into private wallets. The name ‘Proof-of-Keys’ is because the initiative was born out of the idea that exchanges need to prove they actually possess all the crypto that is traded on their exchanges, and no fractional reserve

I have to keep myself from FOMO’ing into Bitcoin trying to catch the bottom, I’m so excited ?

I hardly can contain my excitement! Down to $3000 we go! I’m using all my restraint to keep from FOMO’ing in. Worried? Not at all, my resolve is stronger than ever before.

I told you it was going to get worse

I’ve been saying we’d be going down still, and $3000 has been a target of mine for a long time now. Now that we’re finally almost here, I can hardly contain myself from FOMO’ing in too early! I’ve been a long-time believer that we had yet to capitulate, and I still think we’re not done yet. My current prediction is that $3000 is almost a guarantee.

As I wrote in my last post where I outlined my buying strategy, my buy-in points are roughly:

* $4300 (this was hit, bought in slightly below)
* $3700 (deviated from plan and skipped this one, thought the bounce was too weak)
* $3000-3200
* $1850-2000
* $1650
* $1350
* $1200

I still don’t believe we’re going to hit the absolute bottom possible target of $1200 and I actually do think there is a pretty fair chance that $3000 will end up being the bottom. However, I had been anticipating a more negative sentiment by now. More negative, you ask? Yes, truly, even more negative than now. Based on my experiences with the crypto winter of 2014-2015, there’s just still too many optimists and people believing that $3000 will be the moment when we reverse the trend and go bullish again. Sadly, if my experiences count for anything, this is not the case. By the time the true bottom is hit there will be almost nobody still looking to buy. Even I myself expect that by that time I will be hard-pressed to actually pull the trigger and put a lot of money into BTC.

And frankly, at $3000 I’m feeling nowhere near the emotion that I just described. Instead, I am anxious to buy BTC at $3000. This has led me to believe that the likelihood of dropping below $3000 is actually bigger than I had first anticipated. To put it quite simply, it would be the thing to finally cause the massive flush-out of weak hands and finally make even the strongest of hands throw in the towel. If we stay above $3000, everybody will be happy and hopeful. But sadly this is rarely the situation in which a bottom forms. Instead, the bottom is where people have given up all hope and despise BTC for everything that it is. It sounds to me that we will need to drop below $3000 in order to reach that sentiment.

Technical-analysis-wise, though, it looks like $3000 is pretty strong support. I don’t expect we will fall through it immediately (if we ever do) because of it. A more likely scenario is that we will bounce up significantly from it, because a lot of people like me are waiting on the sidelines for $3000. This bounce will either be the end of the bear market and the beginning of the long and stagnant depression phase (Oh, I didn’t tell you yet how ‘Depression’ is in many ways worse than ‘Capitulation’, did I? Oh gods… the boredom… just hang around and you’ll find out eventually…?).

If I had to give it odds, I would say there is perhaps a 40-50% chance of $3000 being ‘the bottom’ and an equally big chance of us dropping below it. Due to this, I plan to accummulate at $3000 as well as keep some ammunition in store in case of further drops to $2000 or to $1200 at the lowest possible point.

 

It’s funny to feel reverse-FOMO like this. Instead of FOMO’ing in at the top, I am FOMO’ing in trying to catch the bottom. Equally as dangerous and perhaps equally as irresponsible – I would not recommend this to anyone who is not completely convinced about the future of BTC. People who are, in other words, ‘true hodlers‘.

And remember, never invest more than you can afford to lose. I guess you’ll know the true meaning of this by now, if you didn’t know it from before already. No matter what, it is a gamble, and at these low prices it is probably doubly so.

Please note: Trying out the new mentormarket.io interface, so some issues with formatting or layout may have occurred in this post!

 

I have to keep myself from FOMO’ing into Bitcoin trying to catch the bottom, I’m so excited ?

I hardly can contain my excitement! Down to $3000 we go! I’m using all my restraint to keep from FOMO’ing in. Worried? Not at all, my resolve is stronger than ever before.

I told you it was going to get worse
I’ve been saying we’d be going down still, and $3000 has been a target of mine for a long time now. Now that we’re finally almost here, I can hardly contain myself from FOMO’ing in too early! I’ve been a long-time believer that we had yet to capitulate, and I still think we’re not done yet. My current prediction is that

I have to keep myself from FOMO’ing into Bitcoin trying to catch the bottom, I’m so excited ?

I hardly can contain my excitement! Down to $3000 we go! I’m using all my restraint to keep from FOMO’ing in. Worried? Not at all, my resolve is stronger than ever before.

I told you it was going to get worse
I’ve been saying we’d be going down still, and $3000 has been a target of mine for a long time now. Now that we’re finally almost here, I can hardly contain myself from FOMO’ing in too early! I’ve been a long-time believer that we had yet to capitulate, and I still think we’re not done yet. My current prediction is that