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Tag: Cryptocurrencies

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 63

January 11, 2020 Published by

Yet another challenging week to recap – there was a literal avalanche of good/compelling material to choose from. Of course, this is a great problem to have. From elegant explanations of the value proposition of LINK to insightful reflections on the year just past and the decade to come. A wealth of fascinating content awaits the curious crypto enthusiast!

Pick of the Week

If you only have time for one thing – check out this podcast re the 21 lessons of Bitcoin – you won’t regret the investment.

Twitter

Running Bitcoin off the internet:
https://twitter.com/nwoodfine/status/1214238101796638721

A distilled version of Messari’s 2020 theses report (recommended):
https://twitter.com/elainegija/status/1214059271530467328

Two areas of BTC planning worth thinking on (recommended):
https://twitter.com/BTCSchellingPt/status/1215373435469062144

A bullish perspective on BTC for 2020:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/Noakp7n5-Why-I-believe-Bitcoin-will-retest-All-Time-Highs-by-July-1-2020/

An ETH equivalent of Silk road has yet to emerge:
https://twitter.com/teo_leibowitz/status/1215072430588342272

Time to move from research to market?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1215365982694170624

An advocate for LINK explains why it already has a significant market advantage (recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheShipIsMoving/status/1214623803961225217

Sometimes it’s better to keep your opinions to yourself (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1215428990724386816

It’s good to be rich (who knew?):
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1213137465327751169

The US economy is fine, no really:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1215428090656018432

Articles

BTC by the numbers 11 years on (highly recommended):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/happy-birthday-bitcoin-heres-a-look-at-bitcoins-11th-year-by-the-numbers

From skeptic to Bitcoiner a common path (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@ssaurel/from-skeptical-to-bitcoiner-the-7-steps-journey-followed-by-more-and-more-people-d199b8d2d5da

Crypto policy trends and predictions for 2020 (recommended):
https://messari.io/article/crypto-policy-trends-and-predictions-for-2020

The decade ahead (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-will-happen-to-cryptocurrency-in-the-2020s-d93746744a8f

The decade just past (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-happened-in-crypto-over-the-last-decade-ee6a2552d630

Crypto banking is on its way (recommended):
https://blog.deribit.com/insights/the-great-race-to-crypto-banking/

Thinking big about EOS (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/dappiness-solutions/eosio-think-bigger-c10dfadedc63

China’s smallest province has become a blockchain hub:
https://technode.com/2020/01/02/blockchain-hub-takes-root-in-chinas-smallest-province/

An exploration of the Coinbase approach to crypto:
https://nakamoto.com/coinbases-pragmatic-crypto-culture/

An admirably in-depth report of 2019 for XRP:
https://www.xrparcade.com/news/xrp-2019-yearly-report/

Deciphering DeFi (recommended):
https://nakamoto.com/beginners-guide-to-defi/

Podcast

Bitcoin focused – lots to learn here (highly recommended):

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/140/

YouTube

A light-hearted but nonetheless insightful look back on 2019 (highly recommended):

Despite a questionable track record – some useful insights into 2020 (recommended):

Meaningful progress on EOS congestion with changes to REX:

An excellent overview of Filecoin (not a project to invest in but useful to be aware of imo):

Will the equity party end with a bang or a whimper?

Infographic

Now that’s a healthy-looking network:

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1212003395978092545/photo/1

Website / Utility

A new and growing resource for though-provoking articles on crypto (controversially not just BTC focused):

https://nakamoto.com/

Yet again, a whole lot to take-in from just one week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Technical Analysis BTC / USD

January 9, 2020 Published by

BTC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candlestick has tested the important supply zone located at 8215 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal color, coinciding with the diagonal resistance of the major figure, this was an expected movement to complete the WXY correction pattern, the price should now go in search of the weekly demand located within the range of 6200 – 6314 to form the point (Y).

BTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price has formed a high at 8158, this supply level has not been taken, therefore, we could still have some confirmation wick in that price before the price gives us a signal to continue falling, we have an important support located at 7629 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal, if for the moment the price does not take the supply today, we could see a rebound in that support looking for the supply level at 8158.

In conclusion, BTC has formed an important high under the resistance of this parallel channel, the 8215 has been tested correctly leaving us with a maximum at 8500, for now we should wait for the price to continue falling or form a LH under the diagonal resistance to have confirmation, while the price does not claim the level located at 8215 we can not expect the price to continue rising, Based on the WXY pattern, we should have a new entry in the range of 6200 – 6314 where the price would form a double floor as a reversal signal in key support and confirmation point (Y), therefore, I recommend following the 1D price action very closely and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies 2020

January 8, 2020 Published by

Yes I am still alive. (Sorry to disappoint you politicians, mass media journalists, bankers and other scum – you don’t get off the hook that easily!)

My recent silence has not been voluntary, unfortunately I am once again looking after an injured wife. Sadly this takes up the majority of my time, but now that she is slowly on the mend, I will try to get
back to my neglected blogging.

Let’s take a holistic view of the markets, looking at Bitcoin in particular but also at a few related events/issues/etc.

The year started with a bang – a literal bang if your name is (was) General Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let us pause for a moment on this single issue, because the ramifications of that attack are potentially far-reaching. I’m not going to go into whether the attack was justified or not, what Iran did to deserve it etc – go down that path and you get lost in the nitty gritty – that I will leave up to you to decide for yourselves. Since this post is more about BTC than about how the world works, I’ll skip the detailed political/military/economic analysis and will merely mention the high level interesting effects that I think this attack has brought to light.

Bit Brainian thoughts to ponder over:

  • Media coverage was immediate and widespread – to a disproportionate degree if viewed against similar events.
    • This is exactly like the disproportionate amount of coverage received by Greta Thunberg. If you want to know more about how and why this happens, then don’t miss this spectacluar eye-opener: “When Children Cry”.
  • Wars make a very useful national distraction for presidents who are struggling with domestic opposition – Clinton launched a similar attack prior to his impeachment trial.
    • If you want to unite a divided population, then few things work better than a war. People forget their differences when they combine against an external “threat” – whether than threat is real or just a perceived threat created by the government propaganda machine (like the “threat” posed by Jews to Germany in the WWII era).
  • This was an inflationary move (in terms of tension and military aggression) that will destabilise the world. There is no telling how far this destabilising effect will go – a chain reaction is hard to control. With the global economy already on shaky ground, the tipping point of grand-scale economic systems-failure could come sooner (weeks or months) rather than later (within a year or two).
  • Bitcoin price shot up due to instability and uncertainty – or FUD if you prefer. Such a rise is a panic reaction and is based on very little fundamental reasoning.
    • The goldfish-like memories of investors may soon fade, sending the price of BTC back down by maybe $500 to $1000.
    • Ironically the more intelligent long-term investors will have been buying up BTC for years because of long-term instability and uncertainty of the fiat-based markets.
  • It’s interesting to note how BTC was clearly used as a store-of-value as soon as an international crisis loomed.
    • BTC’s transformation into “Digital Gold” in the eyes investors has spread beyond the realm of early adopters and is entering the mainstream collective psyche.
      • …which just makes Peter Schiff’s incoherent panic-ranting look ever more pathetic!

Bitcoin

My last post of 2020 “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” showed how everything was running exactly according to plan and prediction. Well, it was running exactly according to MY plans and predictions – if you follow lesser analysts and their incorrect tales of weak TA fiction, then that’s your own problem.

The post mentioned above was published on 16 December and I haven’t actually needed to update you since then, because that post has been right on the money ever since. Let’s recap a little and see what’s happening now.

The day after I wrote that post I posted this Tweet:

16 hours after Tweeting that, the price of BTC hit a seven month low and turned (generally) positive. The prediction was based on a triple-line convergence point, the details of which may be found in “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” and which remain valid.

It must be mentioned that THE BITCOIN PRICE TURNAROUND HAS YET TO BE CONFIRMED!

Until BTC has conclusively broken through the top of the descending channel, the scenario that BTC may continue to trend downwards remains. I BELIEVE that the price movement of BTC (and of crypto in general) has now turned around, but at this stage I am still willing to concede that I may be mistaken – though the evidence suggests that I am not.

To break out of the channel, BTC will have to break through the red zone depicted on the chart below.

Note in the chart above that BTC price is currently well above my projected price line (yellow), so (as I said earlier) don’t panic if the FUD-based buying comes to an abrupt halt and the price drops into the mid $7000s.

On the other hand, this buying spree and obvious faith placed in BTC as a store-of-value may well trigger another bull run and send crypto prices to new ATHs. At this stage we can’t tell what will happen yet, so just keep calm and take it day by day, remembering that crypto investing is a long-term game.

The performance of altcoins in 2020 suggests that crypto sentiment has indeed swung positive. Those who didn’t pick up alts in December (or earlier) may have missed the best opportunity to do so, though seen in the greater scheme of things altcoins are still ridiculously cheap and are well worth buying! Just remember that many altcoins are utter rubbish (even some big name alts, hey XRP? Hey BSV?), so choose carefully. Sure, the price of the bad coins will probably Moon when the other alts do, but so did the price of BitConnect once upon a time…

With the apparent change in sentiment, I have begun constructing new positive Fib levels (as opposed to the negative ones I was using in the descending channel – as seen above). These are still in the test phase and will require considerable tuning before they start to yield information worthy of “prediction value”. For what it’s worth, my positive Fib levels look like this for now:

I will probably keep the positive Fib levels away from my primary BTC chart for the time being, until such a time as I have confirmed that the descending channel is no longer governing BTC’s price movement. Adding too much data to a chart just becomes confusing and is undesirable, the fewer lines there are on a chart, the more I can see.

Conclusion:

As described in my older posts, I expect BTC to now hover just above my Long-term Base Trendline for the foreseeable future – probably most of 2020. At some stage (or possibly stages) BTC will rise sharply up from that line and we will have another bull market – probably an unbelievably strong record-breaking one. Maybe it won’t be one big one, but rather a series of smaller bull runs, much like the mini-run we saw in mid-2019.

Whatever the outcome, I remain more bullish on BTC than ever before. I’m a long-term investor, when I buy something I’m looking at least five years into the future, more likely a decade or longer. I got into crypto because I saw the long-term potential of decentralised blockchain technology, a potential which will surely be realised.

I think that 2020 will be the year that the masses warm up to the idea of BTC, this will be the year that Bitcoin moves from “geek money” to “legitimate alternative investment”.

Remember that crypto is only a part of a balanced portfolio. I believe that crypto is very important, but I also believe in not putting all one’s eggs in one basket. You can, for example, be a fan of both Bitcoin AND Gold, or even Bitcoin and Stocks – don’t let short-sighted fools like Schiff of Buffett polarise your views.

I wish you all a merry 2020, and I look forward to interacting with all of you wonderful blockchain-friendly visionaries over the course of the year.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 62

January 4, 2020 Published by

The first recap of the year and what a week it’s been. Not in terms of price developments but rather quality articles and crypto discussions/narratives. This recap contains only a small fraction of the great material to emerge this week as we launch into cryptos second decade.

Who really knows if 2020 will be a good year for crypto investors? It’s simply impossible to say with certainty. However, what does seem reasonable to assert is that this will be cryptos decade. The 2020s will see crypto projects move from development to mainstream application. Many, indeed most, will fail but the precious few that make the transition from promising tech to utilized product/service will be a very big deal indeed.

Oh, and Happy 11th Birthday Bitcoin.

Picks of the Week

Nic Carter on BTC is a great way to kick off your crypto-themed researched in 2020. This article exploring some of the messianic aspects of BTC is also a fascinating read. To round-off check out this piece by Bloomberg discussing China’s rollout of a state-sponsored crypto.

Twitter

Some folks just want to pay attention:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1211072538459029504

So how did the top cryptos perform (in terms of price) in 2019?:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1210776029221900288

Looking at the BTC chart on a price and time log scale – very interesting patterns emerge (highly recommended)
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1212546960596463616

An excellent roundup of Chainlink’s purpose and structure (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/DLTPandu/status/1211286825576411136

It’s early days for DEXs (recommended):
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1212802056467169280

A dive into crypto governance:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1212167506070130688

China has big plans for crypto (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1212434441114734593

Great use humour to deflate the crypto women haters out there:
https://twitter.com/La__Cuen/status/1209151285540184064

Useful guidelines before you put pen to paper (highly recommended if content creator):
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1211284340983754753

As an investor strive for this:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1207692433947078656

Articles

Read this piece on BTC to get your crypto year off to the right start (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-times/the-cat-is-out-of-the-bag-fc1344c46bc1

Most financial advisers are a long way from ‘up to date’ on Bitcoin (recommended):
https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/financial-advisors-hate-bitcoin-their-reasons-will-drive-you-crazy-1df9fe417624

An interesting thought experiment viewing BTC as a start-up (recommended):
https://medium.com/@hassmccook/bitcoin-as-a-startup-769c387c97ca

BTC through the lens of religious revelation (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@dustindreifuerst/the-citadel-the-emergence-of-bitcoin-utopianism-eb44ddf76290

So what exactly is Defi? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/coinmonks/what-is-defi-2cee0dceeeab?

A light-hearted look at EOS in 2019 – highly entertaining/informative (recommended):
https://www.eoswriter.io/166040_eos-popcorn-episode-7.eos

Gaming and crypto will be a thing:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/gaming-is-key-to-the-mass-adoption-of-crypto

End-to-End Decentralized Applications Democratize Data and Drive the Open-Source Movement Forward:
https://medium.com/the-liquidapps-blog/unhackable-ungameable-immortal-dapps-are-a-class-of-their-own-1de14d54ba7c

China is about to go full crypto – it’s going to change a lot more than you may think (highly recommended):
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-29/china-has-edge-over-silicon-valley-to-end-banking-as-we-know-it

CZ on Binance in 2019 (recommended):
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/419417682154909696/Binance-2020-New-Year-Message-Building-Foundations–

Ever heard of a ‘factor’? It might be a thing:
https://medium.com/trading-politics/this-will-cause-the-next-financial-crisis-e102264fe511

Podcasts

Meltem Demirors reflects on the first decade of BTC (recommended but skip to the 4-minute mark):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/meltem-demirors-on-first-decade-existence-bitcoin-ep/id1347049808?i=1000460284544

A review the Lightning Network in 2019:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7n0Pp1eVsOfJ2h5wbhnAGD

YouTube

The Crypto Lark looks to the decade ahead (food for thought but by no means investment-grade content):

DataDash explains why he is optimistic for the year ahead:

Investing with a Difference surveys the state of the EOS ecosystem and looks ahead to 2020:

Liquidity and trading:

https://www.binance.vision/economics/liquidity-explained

Infographics

This crypto thing is not catching on:

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/51526/at-least-18-central-banks-are-developing-sovereign-digital-currencies

That’s a lot of traders on the wrong side of a trade (cough – leverage trading is not a good idea):

https://twitter.com/cryptounfolded/status/1211309525078355968/photo/1

Website / Utility

A growing collection of thought-provoking articles on BTC:

https://www.unchained-capital.com/blog/author/plewis/

Another crypto week behind us. An incredibly exciting year ahead. See you once again down this ever-deepening rabbit hole next week.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 61

December 28, 2019 Published by

Just to add some Christmas spice YouTube went and took down a who’s who of Crypto. After much ado, most of the channels are back up and running again. The silver lining – yet another reminder that centralized services may refuse such services as and when they choose. In addition, commonplace shady practices such as promoting leverage trading and pushing sponsored but undeclared reviews of ICOs/IEOs on ‘information’ channels may be reduced, at least in the short-term.

Though many high-profile projects are up significantly for the year, 2019 didn’t broadly deliver in terms of price. Nonetheless, a lot has been accomplished – the infrastructure of crypto has never been more robust. Doubtless, many more projects will go to the wall in the coming year. A scattershot approach to crypto investing in 2020 is unlikely to pay dividends. Whether next year leads to significant price gains remains unknown but as with most things, patience is likely to be rewarded at some point. The question isn’t really if but when – may as well use the time productively!

Picks of the Week

Hard to look past these two reports – one reflecting on 2019, the other focused on the year to come.

Twitter

Let’s start with some predictions (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1206568081016803328

An optimistic take on the coming year:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1206750565834706944

A decade of inflation compared to BTC (recommended):
https://twitter.com/crypto_rand/status/1208073313161011201

VC funded projects don’t necessarily make for good initial investments:
https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1206239305397624833

The BTC halvening is not priced in:
https://twitter.com/Knightfall21/status/1209984695229964288

A thread arguing that consistently highlighting ETH flaws is not equal to an attack on the project (recommended):
https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1208687186306064384

Top crypto projects could do with improving their transparency and engagement with investors:
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1207143847588962305

Perhaps having a figurehead for your crypto project is a mixed blessing:
https://twitter.com/MarkBeylin/status/1207445732095143948

Is a crypto credit bubble really a concern at this point? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1210159551858671616

ETH2 inevitably a hardfork?
https://twitter.com/thibauld/status/1208398273507143682

Proposed EOS REX changes should be an improvement:
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1208478884695617537

Liquidity is key – not a lot of it going around:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1209093579509059584

Analysing HitBTC’s wallets – is it insolvent? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/Raindropactual/status/1208241130342629376

2019 asset returns:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208386891176792065

Markets at all-time highs:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208417033316130817

Articles

Excellent round-up of crypto 2019 (highly recommended:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vc-DGG0iqEBQqNlsr5x6vxGxWUAEdgV3/view

Looking ahead to 2020 another excellent report (highly recommended);
https://messari.io/report/crypto-theses-for-2020

500 Bitcoin related bylines:
https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com/

Bitcoin as a hedge against your government (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-hedge-against-your-government

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/

The next BTC rally will be a thing of beauty – here are three reasons why (recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/three-reasons-the-next-bitcoin-rally-will-be-monumental-e2d8b407c569

Reflections on a year of playing with BTC (recommended):
https://www.coindesk.com/hanukkah-reflections-on-my-year-of-toying-with-bitcoin

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/

Podcast

No love for Alts here but many sound arguments re Alt valuations nonetheless (highly recommended):

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mP4FLxYyPlidAamyBVDQX

YouTube

A brief update on the recent Crypto cull:

Anton Antonopoulos looks beyond single chain dominance (highly recommended):

A brief discussion of crypto folks to be aware of:

https://cheddar.com/media/top-people-to-watch-in-crypto-for

A wide-ranging interview with BTC evangelist Anthony Pompliano:

Colin unpacks recent SEC guidance on the definition of an ‘Accredited Investor.’

Infographic

IEOs largely failed to deliver value for investors in 2019:

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1206808582026477568/photo/1

Signing off for 2019. It’s going to be a profoundly interesting decade! As always, looking forward to hearing from you.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

The Sunday Crypto Recap -Down the Rabbit Hole 60

December 21, 2019 Published by

With the year coming to a close there’s lots to reflect on. Did price – rocket as hoped -no it did not. Is that a problem for the health of the cryptosphere as a whole – no – not at all. 2020 may also flatter to deceive but in the long-run, there’s much to look forward to.

Picks of the Week

Once again it’s hard to select just a few items to highlight. Perhaps if you only check out one thing it should this top 100 figures in crypto. If you can stretch to two then this thread on Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ feature is well worth your time.

Twitter

BTC as an NFL team – who knew?:
https://twitter.com/AlexIlten/status/1205693922342834178

Dan Hedl refutes ‘Satoshi’s Vision’:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1084848063947071488

BTC lows have a trend of some sort (2019 figure yet to be decided):
https://twitter.com/themooncarl/status/1203971458487275520

Blockchain as disruptor across a wide range of sectors:
https://twitter.com/MarshallHayner/status/1204507375757152263

In defense of The Block (recommended):
https://twitter.com/hongkim__/status/1204617082005905411

On Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/udiWertheimer/status/1206684805175398400

From one extreme to the other (recommended;
https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/1205104637310914565

On central bank and state approaches to digital currencies (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1205438393145942016

On value and belief:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1206321498127917056

What is ‘useful’ in life is rarely simple:
https://twitter.com/shl/status/1204799385646665728

Articles

A who’s who of crypto (highly recommended):
https://cryptoweekly.co/100/

Why it’s early days for crypto (recommended):
https://markhelfman.com/2019/12/13/why-nobody-else-cares-about-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrency/

It’s prediction time:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/biserdimitrov/2019/12/11/what-are-the-top-10-blockchain-predictions-for-2020/#73e59554d395

Gas flaring and BTC:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/why-bitcoin-mining-is-being-touted-as-a-solution-to-gas-flaring

Binance didn’t become a dominant player through luck (recommended):
https://decrypt.co/11327/the-inside-story-of-binance-explosive-rise-to-power

Comparing Visa and lightning:
https://medium.com/galoymoney/visa-and-lightning-how-do-they-compare-1f4d89bdbbaf

Is KYC/AML really so bad?:
https://medium.com/exmo-official/everybody-is-freaking-out-about-the-5amld-is-mandatory-verification-as-scary-as-it-seems-6ccd2f92bb7d

So that was 2019 (recommended):
https://brukhman.substack.com/p/this-was-a-year-of-steady-infrastructural

Podcast

Larry Cermak of the Block on crypto (highly recommended but skip frequent Ads):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/larry-cermak-block-on-what-90-bitcoin-trading-is-for/id1347049808?i=1000459488613

YouTube

A brief review of BTC price action for 2019 (in terms of Elliott wave theory):

2020 looking good for BTC? (highly recommended despite light-hearted style):

Chainlink overview (recommended for research but strong pro Chainlink bias here):

Browser ‘incognito mode’ isn’t as secret as you may think:

A bullish take on gold by a long-time market participant:

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/the-kaplan-doctrine-conservation-preservation-and-value?

Infographics

Early December snapshot of key BTC mine related metrics (link also leads to an article on the subject):

https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-analysis-miners-squeezed-by-dropping-prices

Visualising BTC layers:

https://twitter.com/HillebrandMax/status/1205517645753257984/photo/1

Website / Utility

Excellent resource for tracking BTC mining/network metrics:

https://bravenewcoin.com/data-and-charts/assets/BTC/price

That’s a wrap for yet another fascinating week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

ENJ technical analysis

December 16, 2019 Published by

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the price has managed to close above the accumulation range, the previous candle has tested very well the high range of this area with strong buying pressure, we should have a continuation of the movement in the short and medium term, as soon as the price manages to close above the weekly bid located at 0.00001424 indicated within the chart by the horizontal black, the price can go up strongly, our profit targets are located within the chart by the horizontal upper black color.

ENJ seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has made us a range on the diagonal support that we see indicated within the chart by the diagonal red color, we could have a new test of the area of supply located at 0.00001424 before a setback to the area of demand in 1D located at 0.00001165 indicated inside the graph by means of the horizontal purple color, if this scenario happens, we would have an ascending triangle in the minor figure as a sign of continuation bullish, inside the graph of above I have also indicated by means of the green arrows the series of HL that has formed us the structure of candles during the accumulation and ascent outside this range.

In conclusion, ENJ maintains an excellent bullish movement through a series of three HL during the movement out of the accumulation range, currently the price could be forming an ascending triangle as a sign of continuation, to follow the rise, the price must keep the daily demand zone located at 0.00001165, if this happens we could have a break in the weekly supply zone located at 0.00001424 and with this a strong bullish movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00001942, our second profit target is located at 0.00002402, our third profit target is located at 0.00002953, and the highest target is at 0.00004631, therefore, I recommend following the price action in 1D very closely and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin – Approaching 2020

December 16, 2019 Published by

Oh how I wish we were seeing the kind of Bitcoin price action that we saw back in December of 2017! Alas, it can’t always be a bull market. However, while reading this post, remember that when looking at investments it is LONG-TERM performance that counts! Everything else is just “noise”.

Let’s fall into the trap of getting lost in some of that noise – just for the hell of it, and thereafter we’ll zoom out and see how the long-term market looks.

All is well

Everything is still going according to plan (almost uncannily so), even if the trend is negative. Counter-intuitively, this is a positive sign: a predictable market is more stable and easier to analyse accurately, it has less chance of giving (good) analysts a shock.

The current market has been incredibly predictable. My post of 27 November (uncreatively titled “Bitcoin – 27 November (Don’t Panic)”) shows exactly how predictable that market is, and how I am still calling the market today based on analysis that is now five months old. I strongly recommend reading that post as background to this one, it gives a much better indication of the age and accuracy of these predictions, as well as an explanation of what they are based on.

Short-term

The yellow price prediction line seen in the post mentioned above is still in play. Remember: it is a rough indication of expected price movement – a “best guess” scenario and should only be taken as such.

The fact that it is still doing a good job 29 days after its creation is a positive sign. With BTC price sitting where it is right now, we can see that the prediction line is sitting about $500 below it. Again, don’t read too much into that, but – it is likely that price may drop another $500 or so before reaching the turnaround level.

The descending channel (you DID read that post I recommended earlier, didn’t you?) is still the dominant local price-governing pattern.

You can see my faint Fib-levels within the structure of the channel, levels which determine short-term price jumps, but which will ultimately become inconsequential in the long-term. Like other savvy investors, I have been making use of these levels to stack sats when BTC dips to the lowest levels, it helps a little with ROI in the long-term.

Medium-term

Looking at 2019 in isolation, it is noteworthy that despite not being a great year, BTC is up 91.69% from its start-of-year price ($3691.87 on Coinbase at 00:00 GMT on 1 January; measured to time of writing). Annual performance is a trivial and arbitrary figure, but the more traditional financial markets are fascinated by such numbers, so why not ask them how many of their assets can match that figure?

Far more importantly on this chart, we see the triple convergence point of three support lines: medium-term, semi-long-term and long-term. We are just passing the end of that convergence point right now!

An explanation of this convergence point can once again be found in the previous post, though we will cover it briefly on the next chart. The significance of passing this point is that BTC price movement should now turn positive.

Hark. Bit Brain has spoken.

“Turning positive” implies that BTC price will start to move towards the top of the six-month-old descending channel and eventually break through it. For what it’s worth, my charts place that breakout date in the second week of March 2020. Consider that date to be highly flexible, though it shouldn’t happen much later than that.

Long-term

As I said above, this chart gives an idea of where the other two converging lines originate from (the third line of the convergence point being the base of the descending channel). This is why BTC is now crossing a triple-support threshold.

The “Long-term base trendline” is the most important of the three lines by a country mile. It is the only line that will carry and meaningful significance into 2020.

It is critical that BTC does not execute a definitive break through this trendline. At five years old, it has been Bitcoin’s reliable support level for half of BTC’s life, a situation which I deem unlikely to change soon. A small break below it (such as that of late 2015) is fine, but a big break would mean that all bets are off and that I need to go back to the analysis drawing board.

It is worth nothing that long-term BTC trends may curve slightly downwards as opposed to being straight like this trendline is. But beware of taking the majority of curved-line posts too seriously! I’m sure you’ve all seen the popular “stock-to-flow” charts circulating around; it’s a pity they are just very broad and largely useless “predictions” – much like a TA version of “psychic” readings or astrology. Perhaps I’ll write a post to debunk them sometime, or perhaps you can just read these two posts and figure the problem out for yourself: (in addition to the problem of the ridiculously wide channels they use – which still get breached.)

In fact, ENSURE you read those posts, since the economics behind halvings is still ridiculously misunderstood in the crypto space.

Conclusion

Passing the convergence zone today finally puts us back on the path towards higher prices. The mini bull run of May/June did us no favours – prematurely pushing the price of BTC high above the base trendline and causing it to fall for the remainder of the year. That fall should now finally come to an end, though is has already caused further damage (after that caused in 2018) to the altcoin market and its credibility.

I see this as a great time to buy: we are at the (probable) end of a descending channel, near the bottom of that channel and about to hit firm support and an upwards trend. The altcoin market lies in tatters, meaning that many literally unbeatable deals await the brave investor. Having spent a little money on large-cap alts recently, I think that I may be ready to chance a little on smaller cap coins now. The opportunity to buy into genuinely good crypto projects with a total market cap of $1 mil or less is too good to pass up on!

If anyone is going away soon and won’t be reading my blog for a while: I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Please travel safely and don’t do anything silly like drinking and driving. I did some of that in my younger days and it is nothing to be proud of – it’s just incredibly stupid and selfish. Be better than I was.

May Santa bring all of you big bags of cryptocurrencies!

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 59

December 15, 2019 Published by

Overall, the charts look set in their bearish ways. A Christmas rally seems increasingly unlikely. Thankfully, there are plenty of other areas worth focusing on from central banks announcing plans to roll out their own versions of crypto to China’s daily expansion into blockchain. This week’s recap focuses, in particular, on the Chinese Communist Parties ‘plans’ for the cryptosphere.

Picks of the Week

This report on the current state of play of blockchain in China. This podcast wrapping up a 5 part series on the same topic and this article examining the CCP’s ’embrace of blockchain’ but evident antipathy towards Bitcoin.

Twitter

This BTC thing will never catch-on:
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950870939422720

A perspective on why BTC price lags apparent interest:
https://twitter.com/AdamPaulMoore/status/1201561011750408192

BTC halving likely to lead to a price rise?:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1201983119387217925

Over a thousand companies in Hainan province alone are in
some way engaged with blockchain:
https://twitter.com/mg0314a/status/1202150448074903553

On EOS achievements to date:
https://twitter.com/EOS_Nation/status/1203437924538298368

China’s embrace of blockchain is neither benign or destined to succeed:
https://twitter.com/aantonop/status/1203829157681094658

Peer to peer cash – why its hard to achieve ad why it matters (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/MiguelCuneta/status/1202877557370044417

Gold and yields showing remarkable divergence:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1205272294542602240

Articles

BTC is not failing:
https://medium.com/swlh/why-bitcoin-is-not-failing-39e10eef1be1

Is BTC really deflationary?:
https://medium.com/@Conner_/stop-calling-bitcoin-deflationary-84462cb90345

China ‘loves’ blockchain but ‘dislikes’ BTC – so why is that? (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/blockchain-is-the-censored-word-for

BTC halving impact will have minimal market effect:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/youngjoseph/2019/12/03/prominent-investor-says-halving-wont-have-a-big-impact-on-bitcoin-price-heres-why/#6a98620b777b

Is BTC in its ‘chasm phase’? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoins-success-in-the-future-will-depend-how-it-emerges-from-the-chasm-phase-c6b726541399

The complex reality of Altcoin tokenomics (recommended):
https://medium.com/@leo.vigna/chainlink-to-infinity-link-to-zero-the-risks-of-token-abstraction-640fbd97a9b7

A report on one of the first EOS blockchain games (recommended):
https://medium.com/crypto-sword-magic/game-economy-report-bac24c42c9e7

Excellent overview of the current state of the blockchain industry in China (leads to a link to download the report – highly recommended):
https://forkast.news/china-blockchain-report/

HEX is a clever scam but a scam nonetheless:
https://medium.com/@TooWumboToFail/under-a-hex-396847b86e57

Podcast

Deciphering China’s role in blockchain – Part 5 of 5 (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

YouTube

A good overview of possible trends for crypto 2020:

BTC’s ROI is decreasing each cycle but still impressive:

Anton Antonopoulos on EOS (highly recommended):

REX is back up and running + a little context on DAPP costs (recommended):

Colin shares his views on a wide range of crypto topics:

Infographics

Whose buying BTC (on Localbitcoins):

https://twitter.com/ProofOfSteve/status/1201411289701965829

A useful visual guide to the main forks BTC soft/hard over the years:

https://i.redd.it/1pvmr98w5x041.png

It’s been a heck of a run for equities:

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1202414250276184064/photo/1

Website / Utility

Useful website for researching DeFi projects:

https://defipulse.com/defi-list

Lots to take-in. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

December 13, 2019 Published by

Please click the link below to listen to the 66th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

External Podcast Links

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-deciphering-chinas-blockchain-play/id1441492450?i=1000459456421

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-rei4e-cb291b

Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 5 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This episode wraps up the China Blockchain Series by examining the risk-reward investment scenarios now on offer.

Despite the undeniable importance of the Chinese Communist Parties’ enthusiasm for blockchain it, in fact, offers very little long-term upside for the typical investor.

A caveat -if you happen to be a mainland Chinese investor with ties to the government – then the future is very bright indeed. For the rest – not so much. There are many hundreds of blockchain projects currently underway in China – over 100 in Hainan province alone. How many of these are likely to accrue long-term value? Very few indeed – even in the most permissive and supportive environment the majority of start-ups fail. As 2017’s ICO phase clearly demonstrated the failure rate for crypto-related endeavours is even higher than that for other tech-related projects. Add to this the immense difficulty of accessing reliable information on China-based projects. A typical western investor simply has no idea what is ‘true’ when it comes to local chains. Twitter personalities and thirdhand reports make terrible investment advisors. Finally, throw an authoritarian regime into the mix. A government that can and will do as it pleases – anointing winners and dooming all others and the futility of picking Chinese crypto winners should be readily apparent.

Nonetheless, a tangible investment opportunity does exist here but it lies with projects that benefit by comparison with state-sanctioned chains. Bitcoin is an obvious example. Over the next few years, the reality of blockchain as a tool of state control and coercion will likely serve to highlight the liberating benefits of truly decentralized systems. Wall Street may care not a whit for liberty but they certainly embrace opportunity and decentralized financial instruments fit the bill perfectly.

Another though much difficult to identify opportunity lies with chains that successfully master interoperability – allowing them to do business across borders while remaining complaint with varying legal requirements. Such projects may or may not be decentralized but facilitating access to markets should bring value to those chains that achieve this at scale. Nuls, Chainlink, Polkadot, and Quant are some of the current leaders in this area though it’s far from clear whether any of them will gain meaningful traction over the coming years.

Finally, there are potential swing trade opportunities in the short term. Tokens with reasonable liquidity such as NEO and ONT may offer substantial upside as China moves to implement blockchain more broadly. This process may temporarily lift all boats as it were. However, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that well-established chains like NEO and Ontology will be adopted. From a risk/reward perspective, a targeted exit point in under a year seems optimal. Wait too long and you could see the entire position collapse overnight. Swing trading, however, is much more suited to folks who are already experienced day traders and therefore not a viable option for most retail investors who are exceedingly likely to move the goalposts once actually in a position.

In summary – China matters. The next few years will see it take centre stage as the CCP rolls out its version of crypto. Many will declare that the Beijing model is the only viable at-scale implementation of blockchain. They will be entirely wrong but it may take years for that to become clear. Over a long enough horizon – the centralized, state-supervised model of crypto embodied by China and a soon to follow slew of authoritarian regimes will end up being a profound catalyst for the widespread adoption of decentralized chains – and here is where the true investment potential lies.

Thanks for listening.

Series Links

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 1 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 4 of 5

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