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My Take On The US Equity Markets For The Week Of 8/5/19

August 4, 2019 Published by

This past week, Fed Powell cut rates…as expected.  Markets will typically rally after a rate cut due to lower borrowing cost for companies, translating into higher profits.  And we did get a rally, until Trump twitted an additional 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 million of imports from China.  That twit alone lead to a 700 pt reversal in the Equity Markets and the stocks closed at a level not seen since late June.

S&P 500 – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Price fell back into a daily demand on Friday. Although price reacted to the zone, I don’t know if there are enough buyers to take out the sellers. The zone is no longer fresh and the chart suggests price will fall further down to 2890.

DOW Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

There is a major support/resistance line band near 21000.

I think there is more downside risk as I’m looking for price to fill the gap and react to the daily demand at 21000.

Nasdaq – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Daily demand is about 200 points lower.

However, on the 4 hr hour chart, there is a 4 hr daily demand that I would of taking long, but it was a Friday and I didn’t want price to potential gap against me on Sunday. So going into Monday, if prices hold, after I see some potential strength, I will look to go long on a pull back on a 15 min chart.

NOTE: the better 4 hr demand zone is lower because it represents more of a discount and embedded within a daily demand zone.

Russell 2000 – Big Picture

Lets Zoom In

Prices remain sideways, the only way to play the Russell is to play the extremes as indicated on the 4 hr chart.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Steem….Likely Goes Lower From Current Price

August 4, 2019 Published by

When Steem, Inc. laid off employees last fall, I thought it was the beginning of the end for the token Steem.  With their backs against the wall, the company buckled down and got there expenses, primarily their infrastructure expenses in order.

So the turnaround story begins…hopefully with a happy ending (keep your minds out the gutter).  Steemit Inc. appointed Elizabeth Powell as Managing Director of Steemit and I have been very happy about the her Team’s transparency communication within the last couple of months.

And you know what, I have to give them credit, despite some of the back lashing by remaining professionals and trying to regain the trust of the Steem community.

I do think this blockchain
has a lot of potential, but potential has a shelve life.  In the business of business, it requires a
combination of a clear vision, the ability to execute the vision and a little
luck along the way.  And I give them
credit for at least having a road map now.

So here we are, price is back in the weekly demand zone at $0.23. After hugging the short term up trendline for the first five months in 2019, price struggled to close above the longer term down trendline.  And what I can tell you is the longer price remains in the weekly demand zone filling all the unfilled buy orders, the probability of price breaching the demand zone and going lower decreases.  

This post was tough to write because I’m a long term HODLer of Steem, but I must remember that the name of this game is to low buy and sell high. But what might be undervalued or low in price, could go lower in price. This is where one might buy with conviction because they believe Steem should be much higher. If that is the case, leave your emotions out of the equation because if you decided to buy Steem at current prices, know that is could go lower? So before you pull the trigger, know why you pulled the trigger, but more importantly, have a plan behind why you pulled that trigger to buy at $0.23. The first test for all the buyers of Steem will be this major support/resistance line at $0.30

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

World Stock Market Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/4/19

August 4, 2019 Published by

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.

Source Image

Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated.  However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes.  However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.

DAX (Germany)

Dow Jones (US)

FTSE 100 (England)

Nasdaq (US)

Nifty 50 (India)

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Shanghai (China)

Russell 2000 (US)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

More Downside Ahead For Fluor Corp. – Part 2

August 3, 2019 Published by

Two months ago, I wrote,

More Downside Ahead For Fluor Corp.

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operation, maintenance and asset integrity, and project management services worldwide.

Fluor is not only down 30% in May, but down 50% since the beginning of the year. And since the monthly candle just closed below the 2009 pivot low, the chart suggests price will continue to decline to the monthly demand at $13.

Today, I had a great conversation with some of the folks over at the Steemleo Discord channel where I stated the Markets can be timed.

Fluor Corp. is just one example. The fundamentals would of allowed you to time the down fall in Fluor Corp. from the previous earning announcement in May. On Friday Fluor Corp. announced their second quarter earnings.  The company reported a net loss of $554.8 million, or $3.96 a share, from a profit of $114.8 million, or 82 cents a share, from a year ago and missed revenue expectations in the process. During the earnings call, the CFO said cash flow was going to be in the red the rest of the year negative and that they would need to sale off some assets.   

Even if you aren’t a fundamentalist…like myself, the charts told you the same thing and suggested more downside. After Fluor Corp announced their earnings, the stock dropped more than 25% to a level not seen since November of 2004. We are talking about level last seen 15 years ago.

So whether you area fundamentalist or a chart technician, both analysis work, however, I just chose to use the charts to time the markets as I think it’s a better leading indicator because the Smart Money also leaves their footprints behind.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Metal Analysis Report 8/3/19 – Gold Basing…Before The March Higher

August 3, 2019 Published by

Central banks continued to load up on gold in the first half, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.

Nations added 374.1 tons in the first six months as Russia and China kept building reserves and Poland made a massive purchase. The trend is expected to continue, with a recent survey of central banks showing 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months.

Central banks around the world have added to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar.

Source

I’m not surprised, saw it coming in Dec. when Gold put in a bottom aka the “Smiley Face.”

Metal Analysis Report 12-7-18…Do You See What I See???

YES, YES, the chart is suggesting price is forming a bottom and also broke the daily down trendline last month.

The bottom was only validated in subsequent months by the “talking heads” and the Smart Money on Wall Street.

Others Are Jumping Onto The Gold Bandwagon Too

This past Thursday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on his show, Mad Money that he was frustrated about the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and recommended that investors buy into the bull market in gold. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray thinks Jim is right.

Goldman Sach Just Jumped On The Wagon

And just this past week, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sach is forecasting gold prices moving higher within the next 12 months.

Metal Analysis Report 6/24/19 – Gold Confirms…It’s Time To Buy

Not only has price breached the five year resistance band, but also closed above the big fat round number of $1400. The chart suggests price moves higher to the monthly supply at $1600, with pull backs along the way.

Although Gold has stalled in recent weeks, it’s not time to sell, it’s just basing before price marches higher.

Yes, the US dollar moving higher had something to do with Gold basing, but the real reason is the buyers continue to eat away at the unfilled sell orders just under the weekly supply at $1475.

So those in Gold for the long haul, don’t fret, it’s all part of the impulse move, then correction, just know it’s the long term buyers that are now causing the impulse moves and the sellers and short term buyers causing the correction…1st target remains $1600.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

SPDR Sector Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/5/19

August 3, 2019 Published by

Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.

For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.

When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully.  With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.

Communication Services (XLC)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Consumer Staples (XLP)              

Energy (XLE)                

Financials (XLF)           

Health Care (XLV)                           

Industrials (XLI)  

Materials (XLB)                  

Real Estate (XLRE)                       

Technology (XLK)                  

Utilities (XLU)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Forex Relative Strength Analysis Report For Week Starting 8/4/19

August 3, 2019 Published by

Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.

And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.

The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).

AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar

EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar

GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar

NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar

USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)

USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)

USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)

Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,

the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:

Two Weeks Ago

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crude Oil Analysis Report 8-2-19…Is The Bottom In For Oil???

August 3, 2019 Published by

I can’t believe it’s been a whole month since I last talked about Oil. However, just because I haven’t posted about oil sooner, didn’t mean I wasn’t following it. Quite frankly, it been pretty boring and in the middle of the curve (range). However lets recap from the last post.

Crude Oil Analysis Report 7-3-19…Where To Next For Oil???

So there was demand at $57.25,but the reason that demand failed was because the buyers couldn’t take out and close above the most recent supply.  The chart suggests price is headed lower…to levels that I will be watching is the $53.80 level and the $51.96 level.

After Trump announced an additional 10% levy on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, oil fell more than 7% on Thursday.  The reason why the move was so strong and the drop the worst in over several years was because hope quickly dwindled of a trade war agreement kick starting the global economy.  But the catalyst for the momentum down was when Fed Powell cut interest rates, but said not to expect more.  His language caused the US dollar to move higher and because oil is traded in US dollars around the world, oil started moving down due to it being an inversely correlated asset.   

Although price dropped 7% on Thurs, oil prices closed up over 3% on Friday. So why did prices move higher, despite the equity markets moving lower. Lets zoom in on the $53.80 level that I have been monitoring for the last four weeks. Because price hit a daily demand zone at $53.80.

My personal target for oil is now $57.00. Lets see how things transpire next week.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Fitbit Is…Another Blue Apron / Snapchat – Part 2

August 2, 2019 Published by

Fitbit is trading at all-time new lows after reporting their second quarter earnings earlier this week. Their earnings (really their losses were higher than expected) fell short of expectations and they cut back on their full year revenue guidance.  It appears Fitbit a lot of their hope into the Versa Lite smartwatch.

CFO Ron Kisling quantified how badly the Versa Lite underperformed, saying, “What we’re seeing generally across the course of the year in our guidance was Versa Lite over $150 million below what our initial expectations were.”

While the Versa Lite didn’t sell well, the original Versa exceeded expectations, Park said. The company is reevaluating its pricing and promotion strategy for future hardware launches, and it’s accelerating hardware product development.

Source

Fitbit was the pioneer in fitness trackers and was doing well, that until the smartwatches were also able to track fitness activities. But just like Snapchat has to contend with Facebook and just like Blue Apron has to contend with Amazon, Fitbit has to contend with the Apple Watch.

Five months ago, I talked about how the chart was suggestion price was heading lower to the weekly demand at $4.50

Fitbit Is…Another Blue Apron / Snapchat

Needless to say the stock has now breached the weekly demand zone after earnings.

Unless, Fitbit finds another niche for its products, just like Garmin International moved away from just a GPS screen in your car, the chart suggests Fitbit is headed to $1, with a final stop of getting delisted from Nasdaq.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Trump’s Twit Said It’s Time To Short The Retail Sector

August 2, 2019 Published by

Sometimes Trump has perfect timing.  The DOW rose nearly 300 points yesterday, only to close down nearly 300 points. Speaking of down, trump’s twit said it’s time to short the Retail Sector.

On the news many of the major retailers, from Kohl’s to Nordstrom to Macy’s fell right after his twit.  When Trump said the U.S. would impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods beginning Sept. 1st, it automatically signaled an additional tax on the Retail Sector.  That because the proposed list of goods includes consumer and technology goods, like the iPhone, toys, footwear and clothing.

The SPDR® S&P® Retail ETF, XRT seeks to provide exposure the retail segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Apparel Retail, Automotive Retail, Computer & Electronic Retail, Department Stores, Drug Retail, Food Retailers, General Merchandise Stores, Hypermarkets & Super Centers, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, and Specialty Stores.

I talked about XRT about two months ago,

Is The SPDR S&P Retail ETF, XRT About To Get “X” Out???

XRT was showing a double top – bearish technical reversal pattern, a up trendline break, and a head and shoulder pattern – market trend is in the process of reversing, in this case bearish trend.

The chart suggest price has further downside. I’m personally looking for price to break the $37.50 level and eventually making its way to the weekly demand at $33.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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