When bitcoin cracked 9,400 the next support level was around 8,400. Price closed there with a doji type candle (indecision) but failed to put up any fight and continued to fall lower.
Support becomes Resistance
With price getting down to 7700 and bouncing it was smart to keep an eye on 8,400 for the upside. Sure enough price got to that area and struggle and after closing lower yesterday did so again with today’s candle.
Now we wait to see if bitcoin will push lower and test that 7700 area low or if it can make another run at 8,400.
A move lower would be interesting as the 7,600 to 7,500 area is where everyone originally was looking for support on that prior move lower. There are a lot of buy order stacked in there, myself included. If that doesn’t hold than 6k is on the table.
For the upside it is 8,400 and then 9,400. Pretty simple. Let’s wait and see.
Forever 21 is an American fashion retailer that sells accessories, beauty products, home goods and clothing for women, men and children, but the retailer is better known for the “wears” for teens, tweens and young adults.
Forever 21 was founded in 1984 and during the 2000s, went hard opening up bigger and bigger store in the mall. When it was all said and done, Forever 21 now has about 550 out of 800 stores located in malls. But you know what with only 16% of their total sales coming from the web and mall traffic continuing to dwindle, this week Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection, and announced that it was ceasing operations in 40 countries and closing most of its international and 178 of its US stores last week.
Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is a global leader in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Their properties span across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.
Because Simon Property Group’s CEO David Simon fears such events like Forever 21 filing for bankruptcy, they have decided to dabble online as well. They partnering with other companies, essentially its tenants, and will take a cut of sales with the tenants responsible for fulfilling orders.
Now honesty, Simon Property should of done something like this years ago…maybe they might have had a chance. But when Forever 21 is your seventh largest tent in terms of rent, it puts Simon Property in a bad spot.
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $146.2 billion, an increase of 4.2 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2019. Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2019 were estimated at $1,361.8 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent (±0.2%) from the first quarter of 2019. The second quarter 2019 e-commerce estimate increased 13.3 percent (±1.6%) from the second quarter of 2018 while total retail sales increased 3.2 percent (±0.5%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2019 accounted for 10.7 percent of total sales.
The tide turned for Simon Property Group when price broke the long term up trendline from 2009 accompanied by negative divergence.
One of my favorite set-ups is to then wait for the pull back, in this case the short at the monthly supply at $185.
And price gave potential sellers another opportunity to short at the monthly supply at $166. Nothing changes for me, the target remains the monthly demand at $115. Based on the secular shift to online retail, I’m confident price will get there within the next 1-2 yrs.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Natural gas put in a hammer, reversal candle, which usually occurs at the bottom of a down trend. On the daily chart, price formed a demand zone, on top of a demand zone. Thus, the chart suggested to go long during a pull back to the daily demand zones with a target at the daily supply at $2.700.
Price never pull back, but did hit the daily supply and is falling now. Because the demand zones were never hit, they are still in play.
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is an exchange-traded security designed to track percentage changes in the price of natural gas delivered to Henry Hub, Louisiana, the main U.S. benchmark for natural gas.
Yesterday I noticed that the Smart Money bought over 29,000 of the Nov 15 call options with a strike price at $21.
Because UNG follows the natural gas futures, the charts look very similar.
And based on the seasonality of natural gas price acting bullish from the Fall to the Winter from a technical standpoint, but also from a fundamental standpoint, I love the trade. Thus, the Smart Money should have no problems being profitable on this trade.
Just like Netflix disrupted the at home movie streaming market, Stitch Fix is disrupting apparel retail by allow you to choose your own clothes from a selection of clothing. Stitch Fix is your own stylist on a budget. They send you five items at a time based on an interface through which you select your style preferences, budget, and fit. Customers only pay for what they want to keep and return the rest for a service fee of $20 which goes towards the purchase.
Similar to Netflix who uses technology to get to know their customers, Stitch Fix has put their spin on technology as well with an interactive, mobile and web-based game with clients that we call Style Shuffle.
Stitch Fix was launched in 2011. The company has seen significant growth since, with 2.7 million customers and more than $1 billion in revenue. The person running Stitch Fix is founder Katrina Lake and is the youngest woman ever to take a company public.
Stitch Fix’s debut on the stock exchange last November, with an opening price of $16.90. The stock more than double before settling back to the high $20s. But since its existence the stock price has been more volatile than Elon Musk’s twits.
And Tuesday should be no different when they announce their fourth quarter earnings after the market close. According to The Motley Fool, the 3 things that investors should pay attention to are the following:
The biggest change Stitch Fix made in the fourth quarter was its May launch in the U.K., the company’s first foray into a foreign country. On the third-quarter earnings call, shortly after the U.K. launch, CEO Katrina Lake sounded optimistic about the launch, saying “it seems like there is a lot of excitement from the [British] market” for Stitch Fix’s service. Look for commentary and updates on the U.K. business, as Stitch Fix’s results there will likely inform the brand’s ability to penetrate other international markets.
Despite the fact that Stitch Fix surged following its last two earnings reports, the stock is actually trading near all-time lows today. The most closely watched metric from the company has been revenue growth, the best indicator of the company’s ability to truly change how people shop for clothes. Pay attention to the mix of revenue growth between new and existing clients in the upcoming report.
The most influential number in the earnings report, however, will likely be the company’s revenue guidance for fiscal 2020. This time a year ago, management forecast adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $40 million for 2019, and the company is now targeting the high end of that range for the full year. With the investments to kick off the U.K. market now in the past, we could see a jump in adjusted EBITDA for 2020.
But the Smart Money is not having any of that. On Monday they bought over 5,000 put options with a $14 strike price that expire on Friday.
With price at $19, that represents a potential 26% decline in price, but if they are right, the trade would be worth up to 500% – 700% return. And it would mean breach the weekly demand at $19 as well.
Will the Smart Money be right, we shall find out Tuesday?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.
The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars. Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.
Bitcoin
30 Yr Bond
Copper
Euro Dollar
Gold
Oil
Soybeans
S&P 500
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
I know that title seems a bit backwards, but there are lower price supports I’d love to buy some more at.
Oversold and Overstretched
After the recent dump, which had an intraday low of 7,712 (on coinbase) price has rumbled around the past couple days and is now pushing lower.
Many people are looking for it to hit 7,500 and have buy orders in at that price. It very well could get there today or tomorrow, but if it does then price will be extremely stretched from the 10 period moving average.
If you look at the chart you can see the blue line for the 10 period moving average. See how far price is pulled away from it. The past two day bounce, as modest as it was began to let it catch up but with price moving down today things are getting extremely stretched again.
I would love a quick spike toward 7,500 as buying when things are overstretched is never a bad thing. Doesn’t mean price will bounce but I’d rather buy after intense selling as opposed to buying right before.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut interests rate three times this year with the most recent cut being in August. Back in August the Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points. The drastic cut shocked the Markets because the Markets were only a 25 basis point reduction. At that time, Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr hinted at further easing by any means necessary in order to hit their inflation rate targets.
Fast forward to this past Thurs and the Bank of New Zealand shocked the Markets again. But this time New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday held the official cash rate (OCR) at a record-low 1.0%.
NOTE: This was bullish for the New Zealand Kiwi
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said on Thursday that it was unlikely the central bank would need to use unconventional monetary policy tools, although it would be negligent not to be prepared for such a scenario.
“Our current view is that we are unlikely to need ‘unconventional’ monetary policy tools. But we would be remiss not to be prepared,” Orr said in a speech in New Zealand that was released by the bank.
The New Zealand Dollar jumped after the comments, rising 0.3% to $0.6292.
Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 2.20000 and monthly demand is at 1.70000.
Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – price also broke the weekly up trendline.
Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggested to short price at the daily supply at 2.00500, but the trade set-up happened without me for a 2nd time.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
I wrote about UnitedHealth Group earlier this year. UnitedHealth Group is one of the largest health-insurance providers services roughly 50 million people with revenue of $226.2 billion last year. It also operates physician practices, sells consulting and data services, and administers drug benefits.
One of the major themes going into the 2020 presidential, at least by the Democrats will be the “Medicare for All” proposals. For example, earlier this year, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is calling for government-run health care as a way of covering more people. He’s even singled out UnitedHealth saying their greed would soon end.
But the chart suggested to go long UnitedHealth at the weekly demand at $210.
Price did eventually react to the weekly demand at $210, hit the target at weekly supply zone at $270. But because the $270 was a level that contained a stack of unfilled sell orders, that level the chart also suggested to short price gain with the target being at the weekly demand at $210 again.
In mid-Sept, the “Medicare for All” theme went front and center when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi unveiled her bill that would allow the federal government to negotiate the prices of up to 250 brand-name drugs in Medicare that do not have competitors and the negotiated prices would be available to all purchasers, not just Medicare beneficiaries. In addition, the bill would also cap seniors’ out-of-pocket prescription drug costs at $2,000 a year. And all though Nancy is trying to impeach Trump, Trump actually supports Nancy’s bill. So if Trump gets impeached which he won’t and if the Democrats win next year’s election, which they won’t, UnitedHealth current business model isn’t set up for a more regulated environment. And that’s why the stock fell 3% today and that’s why price is testing the weekly demand at $210 again.
But this time could be a different story. The SPDR Healthcare Sector ETF, XLV still lags behind the S&P 500 ETF, SPY.
and relative to all the other SPY sectors, XLV is dead list.
Thus, the chart is suggesting the weekly demand at $210 won’t hold again, will be breached the zone in the near future and that price will move down to the weekly demand at $183.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Been a long time since I did an analysis of the steem price chart. However, a loyal reader and fellow steemian @chrisrice put in a request and I am happy to oblige.
The More Things Change The More They Stay the Same
If you look at the top of the post you will see a zoomed out view of the daily price chart for steem. The good news is the price action and levels are rather obvious even to the naked eye once the support/resistance lines are laid out as in that chart.
So here’s the thing. We can see long-term price levels when looking at that chart. We can see how they have come into play and to be honest how all of them have been reached with the exception of the level roughly around 10 cents.
At this point, can we expect price to make a full round trip? As in go all the way back to the low it start its prior upward journey from?
Looking at this price action is sort of feels like a self-fulling prophecy.
I say this even with all the good thing going on with steem right now. I think there are some many projects and initiatives (steemleo, splinterlands, etc.) that are pro steem value. However, it takes time for these things to have an impact on the actual demand for and price of steem.
Crypto Market is Weak
The entire crypto market is weak right now to boot. Steem is at 12 cents while a write this. 10 cents is just a mere move away.
Daily chart zoomed in makes it more clear
I’m fine with it hitting ten cents. My worry is that won’t be the bottom. That support area goes into the 9 cent area, but if we go sub 9 cents then the only downside target left is the all time low around 5-6 cents.
So basically I’m rooting for us to test 10 cents and create a bottom there, again.
Then we can focus on upside targets – which would start with this 16 cent area that is now our last little consolidation area before trying to make a run at 20 cents.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end a nearly 15-month trade war with China could happen sooner than people think and that the Chinese were making big agricultural purchases from the United States, including of beef and pork.
Trump spoke a day after delivering a stinging rebuke to China’s trade practices at the United Nations General Assembly, saying he would not accept a “bad deal” in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
China’s top diplomat hit back at U.S. criticism of its trade and development model in a speech on Tuesday after Trump spoke at the United Nations. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister and state councilor, said Beijing would not bow to threats, including on trade, though he said he hoped the high-level trade talks next month would produce positive results.
I have a bias that no trade deal will be reached, but I’m going to continue to trade what is real, not what I feel…so I went short on AUD/USD
Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) – monthly supply is at 0.88000 and there is no monthly demand is at 0.60000.
Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is down.
60 Min Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to short price at the 60 min supply at 0.6750.
NOTE: I don’t usually trade 60 min charts, continuing to test my skills on the smaller time frame, so my position was a little smaller than usual. In addition, I may try to get to breakeven sooner than later because I’m really in no man’s land.
My target is right before the weekly demand zone, but I may not hold as this trade is a greater than 12:1 Reward to Risk trade and I’m looking for just a minimum of 3:1.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
