The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 56

Ironically, while, I keep having to wipe away the blood covering my portfolio this has been a wonderful week in terms of informative articles, insightful tweets, and educational podcasts/vids. So, rather than lamenting short-term price action, delve right into to the ever-fascinating cryptosphere.


If invested and still plagued by doubt – ponder this:
Has BTC’s long-term outlook fundamentally changed?

If you hold only Alts – answer this:
Why?


Picks of the Week

This simple explanation of the current CPU congestion plaguing the EOS network and this jargon-free overview of Oracles and their critical role for the future development of blockchain networks. If it’s charts you are after – this site is a literal treasure trove!


Twitter

Explaining BTC to ‘normal’ folks (recommended):
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1196256830743142400

Miners it seems are feeling the pressure (recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1196607463593635840

Crypto writers providing value (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/MitchellMoos/status/1172590258954752000

Vitalik makes some optimistic promises for Ethereum (recommended):
https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1196896377877471233

Maker DAI,SAI,DAI?
https://twitter.com/Ivshti/status/1195090264567820298

On LINK as an oracle provider:
https://twitter.com/DLTPandu/status/1195022468739719168

The good old days:
https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1195623327559278592

On DeFi (recommended):
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1191544850681942016

Just a little debt:
https://twitter.com/ObiWanKenoBit/status/1194673519017086976


Articles

Stanford digs into blockchain use-cases (highly recommended):
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/2019-blockchain-social-impact

Coinbase on Proof of Work:
https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-views-proof-of-work-security-f4ba1a139da0

Wyoming forges ahead with progressive crypto banking laws:
https://www.coindesk.com/wyomings-new-crypto-banking-law-could-defang-new-yorks-bitlicense

Just when you get to grips with PoW and PoS…along comes Proof of Authority (PoA):
https://cointelegraph.com/news/proof-of-authority-algorithm-use-cases-grow-from-pharma-to-games

Devs aplenty are focused on Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs):
https://www.coindesk.com/an-army-of-bitcoin-devs-is-battle-testing-upgrades-to-privacy-and-scaling

Key talking points from Dan Larimer at Blocksburg event:
https://www.eosgo.io/news/dan-larimer-key-topics-at-blocksburg-summit

The 2020s seen as an inflection point for the global economy:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/the-2020s-set-to-be-an-economic-turning-point/11699386


Podcast

Learning from the OneCoin scam (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/what-bitcoiners-can-learn-from-onecoin-scam-jamie-bartlett/id1317356120?i=1000456898865


YouTube

Always fun to run-out a BTC prediction:


A fix for the EOS CPU issue? Excellent overview of the situation at hand (highly recommended):


Explaining Oracles (highly recommended):


Learning while you laugh (recommended):


A look into a baseline encryption algorithm – Rijndael (recommended):


Infographics

BTC mining difficulty about to turn down:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1196486453699567616

EIDOS mining model not exactly helping EOS:

https://twitter.com/stellabelle/status/1193162367430987776/photo/1


Website / Utility

Bitcoin charts across a wide-array of metrics (highly recommended):

https://charts.woobull.com/


As you can see, plenty to take-in this week over and above the current price. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Artificial Intelligence Says XRP Will Hit $0.65 In 2020

Artificial Intelligence is essentially getting computers to think like humans in terms of cognitive abilities.  Artificial intelligence is all about getting machines react to suggestions or inputs in the way humans do with the goal of perform major tasks and solve problems without the need for human intervention.

Image result for ibm’s watson

The earliest form of artificial intelligence that comes to mind is IBM’s Watson.  In 2011, IBM Watson, beat the two all-time best Jeopardy players.  Even years before that, in 1997, IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue made history as the first computer to beat a world champion in a six-game match.

Image result for Elon Musk

Elon Musk went on record a couple of years ago stating that he believes it’s highly likely that artificial intelligence will be a threat to people and that there will be a few major companies that end up in control of AI systems with “extreme” levels of power.

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer, the billionaire, Mark Cuban said the impact of artificial intelligence across different industries and cultures will surpass the wide-ranging effects of some previous technologies, including personal computers, mobile, even the internet.  But it’s already having an impact….from Alexa, to Siri to translating Facebook posts into different languages, etc.

But can it predict where stock prices will be in the future?  What about predicting the price of XRP?

Despite the current decline in the price, the WalletInvestor website indicates the possibility of XRP getting into active growth.

Despite the current decline in the price, the WalletInvestor website indicates the possibility of XRP getting into active growth.  According to the AI ​​service data, the price of the token will increase to around $ 0.65 in 2020.

Unfortunately, this value is far from being consistent with the forecasts of the crypto community representatives. Some of them predict a price of at least $1. However, this is just a forecast and no one knows how the token will actually act.

As the main conference for the Ripple community came closer, many analysts promised a doubling of the XRP price. However, during and after the conference, the XRP failed to reach new heights. Today, the token is being traded at $ 0.26. If the cryptocurrency does not consolidate at this level, it will roll back to support near $ 0.25 or even lower ones.

Source

Before any prediction comes true or doesn’t come true, price will first have to contend with the daily demand at $0.23 and the sellers at the $0.40 level.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Click the link below to listen to the 63rd episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.


External Podcast Links


https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-chinas-blockchain-play-part-2-of-5/id1441492450?i=1000457404078

or

https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-p5gu2-c8561e


Transcript

Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 2 of 5

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto. This week continues the series examining China’s stance on blockchain seeking to highlight how the Chinese Communist Parties’ approach to Bitcoin is a net positive for the long-term outlook of BTC.

A Caveat

This short format doesn’t lend itself to an in-depth exploration of each statement made. It is therefore inescapably dogmatic in tone and delivery. As always in the world of crypto verify don’t trust – research and lots of it will serve you much better than a surface acceptance or rejection of the perspectives placed before you by any pundit.


To begin – it’s useful to differentiate Bitcoin from the thousands of Altcoins that currently crowd the market. Where many cryptos claim to be distributed, decentralized and therefore uncensorable – BTC in a practical sense – actually is. There is no company, no active founder, no controlling entity and no state oversight. Bitcoin slipped the bonds of control and achieved the heretofore impossible goal of creating a viable alternative to state-issued fiat. To quote Friedrich Hayek:

I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can’t stop.

Hayek, 1984

This is powerful stuff…and not easy to replicate. Though there is a great deal of potential across a range of blockchain use-cases – it is money, wealth storage and value transfer where the first wave of profoundly impactful change is possible. Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency which finds itself placed to disrupt the current monetary system. It’s competitors though full of lofty goals may ultimately be viewed as both less ambitious and likely less impactful.

If you find yourself baulking at this statement of BTC supremacy perhaps take a few months to deeply analyse the cryptosphere, broader market fundamentals, and the current financial system.


OK, so BTC scene set – how then can China’s recent embrace of blockchain be seen as a positive for Bitcoin?

The answer is in a sense – obvious. As argued in Part 1 of this series – Blockchain as envisaged by the Communist Party of China – is first and foremost a tool of control. Whether China rolls out one or many blockchains – they will share a fundamental quality – oversight and beyond this – mutability. As long as the CPC retains power there will never be a truly independent state-endorsed blockchain network in China. If not the internet, then why blockchain?

Each and every iteration of blockchain regardless of function and utility will rest within the authority of the Chinese state. Vast sums of money may be made, investors enriched and efficiencies achieved but these databases will, at core, be tools for state supervision and coercion. China will not be alone in pushing the state blockchain narrative – authoritarian states the world over will do so and likely follow the ‘Beijing’ model. Beyond this, comparatively freer societies will likely see political embrace of ‘good’ blockchain while decentralized options are at least, at first, eschewed.
So how then is this good for Bitcoin?

Simply put – comparison. By direct comparison through time, most market participants will observe the superiority of a free, decentralized network over that of one controlled by their own government. As concrete examples of the ‘downsides’ of blockchain supervision become increasingly evident, the alternative embodied by BTC will be increasingly obvious. Investment will likely follow…

This might take decades to fully playout but the freedoms offered by Bitcoin simply cannot be replicated by a state.

Global market forces alone will drive a value divergence between BTC and state-controlled blockchains. It may well be that accessing BTC becomes all but impossible for the ordinary citizens of countries like China but the wealthy will find a way – as they do right now. Within China, BTC’s value will likely flow from both the top and the bottom – the top for profit, the bottom for freedom. It really doesn’t matter if ‘most’ individuals accept the state narrative as only a minority need to buck the yoke to lead to a strengthening of BTC as a viable alternative. Of course, outside looking in – the comparative desirability of BTC will likely not escape the market’s attention.

Bitcoin may have many a tumultuous year, it may be banned, attacked, forked and vilified but ultimately it stands apart from centralized state solutions and each passing year will likely serve to make that contrast clearer.

Thanks for listening.


Resources

I’m Not Buying What Kohl’s Is Saying

The internet was originally built to hold and share data, making the transfer of data timely and seamless. The internet has evolved over time, and today the internet is allowing for a timely and seamless transfer of goods.

The rise of ecommerce outlets has made it harder for traditional retailers to attract customers to their stores and there is no bigger culprit than Amazon. So what did Kohl’s do, the got in bed with the enemy a year ago and partnered with Amazon. Kohl’s now accepts Amazon returns and has Amazon shops in their stores where they sell Amazon products such as the Echo smart speakers.

The partnership simplifying the returns process for Amazon and showcasing Echo devices and other Alexa-compatible hardware and in return brings in addition foot traffic into the Kohl’s stores. Case in point, the partnership is even gaining traction with millennials, who otherwise would have ignored Kohl’s.

Kohl has even teamed up with Weight Watchers, for an in-store studio and Healthy Kitchen products at some locations.  In addition, in an effort to drive more foot traffic to its stores, Kohl’s is partnering with Planet Fitness.

Retailers closed a record 100 million square feet of store space in 2017, another 155 million square feet, according to estimates by the commercial real-estate firm CoStar Group.  This year more than 9,000 stores are expected to close in 2019.  From Sears, Kmart, Party City, Walgreens, Barneys, Family Dollar, Chico’s and others. Payless has said it plans to close all of its 2,500 stores in what could be the largest retail liquidation in history.

So is Kohl’s really just holding on for dear life?

Department store chain Kohl’s remained confident its Amazon partnership would boost sales despite cutting its full-year guidance ahead of the holiday season.

The retailer’s stock KSS, -19.49% plunged more than 17% on Tuesday after missing third-quarter sales estimates and slashing its annual earnings forecast.

The company had hoped its expanded tie-up with the e-commerce company would have a positive impact on its second-half performance. However, Kohl’s slashed its full-year earnings guidance after the third quarter—the first full quarter since the nationwide rollout of the Amazon Returns program. The company said it now expected adjusted earnings per share of $4.75 to $4.95, down from previous guidance of $5.15 to $5.45; the FactSet consensus had been $5.19. Same-store sales in the third quarter rose 0.4%, below FactSet estimates of 0.9% growth.

Despite the earnings miss, Kohl’s Chief Executive Michelle Gass said the company had “momentum” going into the holiday season, which she was confident would be strong because of the Amazon partnership and investments in new brands and products.

Source

Kohl’s stock price fell the most in three years on the earning’s announcement. So is there more pain in store, yes as the chart suggests price is heading down to the monthly demand at $35?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Volatility Is Coming…HODL

Stocks rallied to record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 28,000 for the first time, Friday after White House officials said the U.S. and China are getting closer to a phase one trade deal.  On Monday, the DOW and S&P 500 set another record.  This marked 20+ record highs for 2019.  

Many pundits on Wall Street think things are just getting started as the last two months have been great to investors from a historical standpoint, thanks to the so called “Santa Claus” rally.

The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to rally over the last weeks of December into the New Year…the halo effect of Christmas perhaps. However, the Wealthy have a different perspective.  They aren’t Wealthy for nothing…as they tend to think about how much they can lose, not how much they can make.

Bullish buyers have sent the S&P 500 Index soaring to a series of record highs this month, but wealthy investors are bracing for a significant market decline by the end of 2020, and now hold, on average, 25% of their assets in cash, according to a worldwide survey by UBS Global Wealth Management that drew more than 3,400 responses.

Other key findings of the survey were: nearly 80% expect volatility to increase, 55% anticipate a significant stock market selloff before the end of 2020, and 62% look to increase their diversification across asset classes. While the average allocation to cash among respondents was 25%, this was down from 32% in an earlier iteration of the survey in May. Also, per a report in Barron’s about the survey, 52% are uncertain whether it is a good time to invest now, but 64% are thinking about increasing their holdings of high quality stocks.

Source

And their concerns are being supported by the VIX. The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX aka the stock market fear gauge, is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility implied.

Devesh Shah, an applied mathematician and hedge fund manager who formerly worked for Goldman Sachs, was one of the creators of the CBOE Volatility Index

The VIX is quoted in percentage points and is the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, with a 68% probability. VIX values greater than 30 represent investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 represent complacent in the Markets.

Source

The current VIX level, near 12, is near the lowest historical levels of the past 12 months, which means it’s setting up for a pop higher, which will correlate to a drop in the equity makes.    In addition, the Smart Money added to their bearish bets on the VIX futures for a fifth straight week and for the tenth time in the past eleven weeks. The green line represents the Smart Money and the fact that the open positions are increasing is evidence that they have been adding to their short position. All I can say is HODL because the ride will get bumpy at some point.

Source Image

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

EDO technical analysis

EDO seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has remained within a parallel channel bassist, marked within the graph with the blue figure, currently the price has made us a range in the area of weekly demand located in the 0.00003177, marked on the graph by the horizontal lower black forming the first HL, we need the closing of this candle is strong to go for the test of the neck line located at 0.00005006, if this scenario occurs, the possibilities of a next upward movement increase and we could see the price go in search of our second target located within the price range of 0.00009506 – 0.00010888, indicated in the chart above by the two upper horizontal black color.

EDO seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see as the price after the recession is maintaining an excellent movement a series of HL that should push the price towards the zone of offer of the line of neck located in the 0.00005006, within the chart above I have marked through the two blue diagonals the possible scenario that we could see in the coming days, the resistance is not yet confirmed, however, this type of figures are very common within these moments of the trend and we must take it into account and wait for confirmation once the price goes up to test the high range.

In conclusion, EDO is at a good time to go in search of an upward movement towards our first profit target located at 0.00005006, if this happens, we could see the price go back to form a new HL that would be the important signal to go in search of our second profit target located within the price range of 0.00009506 – 0.00010888, the price should be kept above the diagonal support we see on the blue 1D chart, otherwise, the price could fall even further, therefore, I recommend to be very attentive to the action of the price in 1D and always remember to place your stop loss to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Cryptocurrency Drama (Full Play)

As promised, here is the whole play (previously published in four episodes) in one big part. It’s far more coherent this way, though obviously not a quick read.

Shakespeare wishes that he was this good! I’ll bet he’s never even heard of Bitcoin!

DRAMATIS PERSONAE

ERNIE, an opportunistic salesman
BIT BRAIN, a customer
THE DIRECTOR OF AUTOMATED NETWORKS, a director of a large franchise
NED, a director of a small franchise

ACT 1 – The Past

Scene 1

Bit Brain enters a large store on the main road of a frontier Western Town established by pioneers. There he is greeted by an opportunistic salesman named Ernie.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Welcome sir! And a very good day to you!

BIT BRAIN
Thank you kind fellow, and a very good day to you too!

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Is there anything that I can assist you with?

BIT BRAIN
Perhaps a little later. I’ve heard a lot of good things about this store, it seems to be very popular. I wanted to see for myself what all the hype was about.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
No problem, just let me know if you need me.

BB wanders around the store and surveys the merchandise.

BIT BRAIN
Ernie! Would you mind if I asked you a few questions?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
No problem sir! Ask away!

BIT BRAIN
I see a lot of new businesses have opened up around here recently. What’s happening?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Oh yes sir! You see, this is a frontier town. We have fled the mismanaged areas of the central government and have moved to this free and previously unsettled area. We didn’t feel safe living and working in the big towns anymore. I used to work in a bank in a large town, do you know what the building was made of?

BIT BRAIN
No, do tell.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
It was made of cards! It has become common practice for them to construct financial institutions out of playing cards! I would never have believed it if I had not seen it with my own two eyes, I know that many others do not believe it when I tell them!

BIT BRAIN
I believe you Ernie, I too have witnessed the houses of cards with my own eyes. That’s why my people and I have now moved out here to the frontier. What I’m trying to do now is to make a few good investments to set me up for the future. That’s why I’m here today, to see if I’m interested in buying what you guys are selling.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
I assume that sir has already been to the largest building in our town, the one with an enormous sign that says “Bank Toppling Currency”? They create most of the money that we use around here – we just abbreviate it as “BTC”. They actually have a mine beneath the building. Anyone with a pickaxe is free to go and mine their own money; wonderful system isn’t it?

BIT BRAIN
Yes indeed! I have been into the mine myself. Unfortunately my mining tools are rather crude compared to some of the advanced mining equipment that people are using down there, so I just bought some of their BTC off them with my dollars.

Speaking of BTC; I’ve taken a little walk around your store, and I like what I see. I would be interested in spending some of my BTC here, does this store accept it?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Oh I’m delighted to hear that sir! Yes of course we take BTC, but we have our own little account system that you will have be to registered on before we can process any transactions.

BIT BRAIN
Okay, how do I do that?

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
We operate on a system whereby you buy everything on a store loyalty card. We call it the “Customer Purchasing Unit” or “CPU”. I’m afraid that it’s not a quick and easy process to get an account going, but it’s worth it in the long run. What you then do is you deposit a small amount of BTC onto your CPU, and that guarantees that you will always be able to use our store! Great system, isn’t it?

BIT BRAIN
Weeeeelll, it does sound a tad over-complicated, but for guaranteed access to this obviously expanding store, it seems like a fair trade-off.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Yes, I’m afraid that one of the directors here is known for developing very complex in-store economic systems, but he is very popular and there is no lack of customers queueing up to use them! Once you have a CPU, you can transact with any of the stores in our growing franchise!

BIT BRAIN
Sign me up Ernie!

ACT 2 – The Present

Scene 1

Bit Brain is seen entering the same store as before. The store is very busy inside, though the town outside seems almost like a wasteland. Tumble-weeds blow across the main road
and many buildings stand abandoned.

ERNIE the OPPORTUNISTIC SALESMAN
Welcome back sir! It’s been quite a few months since we last saw you!

BIT BRAIN
Thanks Ernie. I’m afraid that I don’t come into town often these days, most of the time I just stay on the other side of the river with my tribe, the Timmites. There doesn’t seem to be any freely available BTC around at the moment, and that which I have, I am struggling to use. Last year I bought three horses for 1 BTC, this year just one horse costs 1 BTC!

EOS
Sadly that is true. You see, while you were away, a large pack of bears marauded their way through our town! They trashed all of our stores and wrecked a lot of the valuables inside. Our store is worth but a fraction of what it once was. Some of the smaller buildings around here were completely flattened, their owners packed up and left, everything inside them was lost.

BB
That’s terrible to hear! I suppose that the reality of being part of a dangerous frontier adventure is that we stand to gain high potential rewards, but at the cost of high potential risk.

EOS
Agreed. Is there anything specific I might help you with today sir?

BB
Well actually Ernie, I was rather hoping that you might. You see I took my CPU to one of your little franchises on the other side of the river last week, but they declined it. They said that it was unable to transact with the your network.

EOS
Oh dear sir, I‘m afraid that your CPU must have been negatively affected by the EIDOS!

BB
What’s an EIDOS?

EOS
The Entrepreneurial-Intentioned Destructive-Outcome Suggestions is the massive suggestion box located in the entrance foyer of our store. EIDOS causes so many suggestions to be submitted that our entire franchise has become completely dedicated to them. Basically, our network of stores has gone into “suggestion mode”.

That’s a good thing because now it shows how many suggestions we can handle!

Soon we will be completely revamping our store, we call it “Version 2.0”. It’s very exciting that we can handle so many suggestions already and we don’t even have our Version 2.0-optimised
store yet!

BB
But Ernie, my CPU doesn’t work. I can’t access your network of stores at all. Despite having deposited way more than the minimum, I’m locked out of the system!

EOS
Well you see, we’ve grown so much that our store is even catching up to Enormous Trade Holdings, the biggest name in the business, apart from Bank Toppling Currency of course! We have so many customers using the suggestion box that there is almost no capacity for anything else right now, but we see that level of activity as being a good thing.

BB
But what about the guaranteed access to your store that you promised me? That was the reason I got the CPU in the first place.

Wasn’t it?

EOS
Well yes, but we weren’t in suggestion mode then. Now that we are, you can see the true cost of using our network. That’s a good thing, because now we all have a more accurate idea of what it really costs to reserve access to our network of stores.

BB
But then you misled people with the whole “guaranteed access” story! You had enormous hidden costs waiting down the line! Ernie this is beginning to remind me of how the banks operate…

So you’re telling me that I’m locked out forever and that it’s just too bad?

EOS
Noooo sir! Of course not!

All you need to do is to increase the size of the deposit on your CPU.

BB
By how much? How big is this hidden cost to “guaranteed access” that you conveniently never mentioned before?

EOS
*mumbling*

Prices have risen roughly 100 000 times.

BB
*visibly shocked*

WHAT?!

EOS
*still mumbling*

But it doesn’t really matter anyway, since you can’t access the network to deposit more onto your CPU… .

..because you don’t have enough CPU to get CPU.

BB
Are you kidding me? I can’t get CPU because I don’t have enough CPU? So I am locked out forever!

EOS
Noooo sir! Of course not!

You can just borrow somebody else’s CPU for a while!

BB
*getting wary*

Okay…

But wouldn’t that be a lengthy and laborious process? How would I find someone? How would that even work in practical terms? How do I even do that? Please, help me here!

EOS
*visibly brightening up and going back into full “salesman mode”*

You can use Ridiculously Extended Xerographics!

BB
Dare I even ask what “Xerographics” means?

EOS
Xerographics, it’s a copying technique, so basically Ridiculously Extended Xerographics – or REX – allows you to lend the same CPU to different people over and over again, hence the copying analogy. You get paid interest for lending out your CPU.

BB
But that’s a ridiculously extended process just to be able to conduct a normal transaction on a shopping network!

EOS
Well, not really. We don’t see it that way, it’s a good thing.

*suddenly Ernie returns to his far more demure state*
Well, to be perfectly honest, there is a little snag with REX too. There still has to be CPU on REX that is available to be lent out.

*Ernie looks downright miserable*
Currently there isn’t any left…

BB
… because everybody is already borrowing all the CPU for EIDOS, right?

EOS
*Brightening up again*

Correct. Almost all the resources on REX and in this store are completely dedicated to EIDOS. But it shows the system works! You must see how many suggestions we process each day! It’s a good thing!

BB
Ernie, thanks for the explanation, but I’d very much like to speak to your manager.

EOS
Very well sir, let me see if the Director of Automated Networks is available.

Scene 2

The is a knock on the door. The Director of Automated Networks opens it to reveal Bit Brain standing in the doorway.

DIRECTOR of AUTOMATED NETWORKS
Please, step inside and have a seat Mr Brain!

BB enters and shakes the extended hand of the DAN. They both take a seat.

DIRECTOR of AUTOMATED NETWORKS
Ernie tells me that you wish to discuss something with me?

BB
Thank you Mr Director. Yes, I would.

DAN
I’m guessing that this has to do with your insufficient CPU preventing you from carrying out transactions on our shopping network?

You do realise that this is just temporary right? A month from now the REX lending contracts will expire and things will probably return to normal. Probably. Until then we get to demonstrate how much traffic
our network can handle from the EIDOS box; it’s a good thing. Also our franchise will soon upgrade to our optimised “Version 2.0”, that will make us even more efficient!

BB
Well, I suppose that the CPU issue inspired me to be here, but that’s not really why I asked to see you.

DAN
Then I am curious Mr Brain, why are you here?

BB
I am here because I’m concerned Mr Director. I’m concerned because your store is experiencing a rather severe issue, and all anybody
says about it is that “it’s a good thing”. Mr Director, I am concerned because you and your supporters are in denial! I haven’t seen this much denial since that German guy said he was going to open a bar that specialises in selling carrot juice; I still can’t believe that so many of the Carrot Bar’s investors were
in denial about that scam!

Mr Director, thousands of shoppers can’t shop here at the moment, and you just don’t seem to care because the richest ones still can! Don’t you see how bad that looks?

DAN
Mr Brain, I think you’re blowing this out of proportion. Anyone who puts enough money into our CPU can still use the system, I don’t see the problem.

BB
I can appreciate that. Can you appreciate that many users can’t afford that? Do you have any idea what it’s like to be in their shoes? My memory is a little fuzzy on this point, remind me again just how much investment capital you attracted when you started up this business?

DAN
Yes, yes, we broke records when we started this business, but that’s not my money, that money belongs to the business.

BB
Yet the board of directors controls it. You get to say how and when it is used. You would never know what it is like to be stuck with only a single unit of credit on your CPU card, because that isn’t a reality that any of you have ever had to experience. But that is a reality that thousands of us customers experience right now, and Mr Director, we can not use your shopping network!

DAN
But can’t you see? The system is working as it should. That is what decentralisation is all about! He who puts the most into the scheme, gets the most benefit from the scheme.

BB
That’s fine, I think we can all accept that. But many of us were led to believe that we had already put sufficient money into the scheme, only to now be told that we will have to invest far more if we want to enjoy predictable, regular access to it! That’s not fair Mr Director! You need to address the problem of EIDOS denying resources to the majority of the network. You need to address the exploitation of your system!

DAN
We don’t see it that way. This is a good thing. There is no problem here.

BB
Damn it Mr Director! Can’t you see that I’m trying to help you guys? Can’t you see that having a whole lot of people who can’t access your network, despite having CPUs, is a big problem? Don’t you appreciate that people don’t want to wait a month to be able to make a transaction? Can’t you understand that nobody wants to create a start-up business as part of your franchise if their customers won’t be able to access their services?

Yesterday I ran into a new guy in town, he says he is the newly appointed District Apothecary. He wants to move into one of the abandoned buildings and start his own District Apothecary service – his DApp,
but he is afraid of the start-up costs. In the past I may have sent him here, to you guys, but now I would never do that to him. Instead I am going to suggest that he joins Ned from across the road and becomes part of his
franchise.

You see Mr Director, your mentality is becoming dangerously elitist, your store no longer cares about serving the man on the street, as long as it can serve a rich happy few or those who are willing to exploit the system. That’s not right Mr Director, that’s not why we moved out here to the frontier! We are supposed to be moving away from systems like that, we are supposed to be creating fair systems for all! Sure the rich can enjoy benefits, but don’t shut the poor out of the network altogether!

DAN
That’s not our objective Mr Brain, we are neither anti-poor, nor pro-rich, we’re just decentralised.

BB
Don’t you worry about your franchisees? Don’t you worry that they will lose business after having placed their faith in you?

DAN
Our franchisees can create systems whereby they loan their own CPU to their customers, allowing them to continue to use our network of services.

BB
But surely some customers will exploit that to the detriment of others? That sounds like quite a complex undertaking for a start-up business to have to deal with; one which will require a potentially complex solution.

DAN
That’s true. But give it time.

BB
That could be more time and money than what people trying to create a DApp or something similar can afford…

Mr Director, as long as you can’t even admit that there is a problem, you can’t begin to address the problem. You know as well as I do that your franchise is hardly decentralised, the majority of resources and control sits right up at the top here with you! That’s fine, but then use it wisely! You need to address this issue! If you do not, then it will have repercussions for your business! Please just admit that there is a problem so that the problem can be tackled! The frontier is a new place, people accept that mistakes are being made, but in order to retain their confidence and respect, you need to be honest with the people! Being realistic, open and honest attracts community support, that’s much better than sitting with disillusioned customers!

DAN
I’m sorry you see it that way Mr Brain. We see no issue. I tell you again, this is a good thing.

BB
Well I’m sorry too Mr Director. I tried to show you an impartial reality, but there are none so blind as those who will not see.

Exit Bit Brain

ACT 3

Scene 1

Bit Brain waves a defeated goodbye to Ernie as he leaves the store. He walks straight across the dusty road and into the building directly opposite.

Bit Brain opens the door and a little bell jingles to announce his arrival.

NED
Welcome to Ned’s Excellent Offers! My name is Ned, how may I help you today?

Bit Brain turns slowly to his left to face Ned behind the counter. He takes in his surroundings as he does so. The store has a fair amount of people in it, but nothing like the
one across the road. Most of the people here appear to be of Eastern descent.

BB
How do you do Ned! People call me Bit Brain. I’m looking for another place to shop, my CPU no longer works at the store across the road. Sorry that I don’t have much money to spend, I just want to pick up a few things, preferably cheap items that may gain value over time.

NED
Ah yes, I understand. You are not the first person to come in here with a story like that. I’m afraid that the CPU system of the store across the road has caused similar problems for many people. I’m scared that they may already have gone too far, that they may already have blocked one too many people from their shopping network.

BB
Blocked ONE too many, they’ve blocked thousands!

NED
Ha ha ha! It sounds like you know the full story then! Yes, they have. For the last week we have seen many angry faces leave that store empty-handed, each one of them blocked from the system by the CPU requirements. My friend Erik and I have watched them through our store-front windows. Whenever we see such a person, we say “oh not again, they’ve blocked another one!” Amongst ourselves we’ve started calling their store “the Blocked One”.

BB
That must be good for you in terms of increased business?

NED
I suppose it is, in the long-term. But it’s still sad, not something we like to see. I don’t think that pioneering frontier businesses should be run that way. It’s certainly not how we run! They may be our competition, but that doesn’t mean that we enjoy watching them fail.

BB
How do you run things here?

NED
Why, our store is free to use of course! Unlike some others, there are no tall barriers to entry for our customers.
Obviously you still pay for the items you buy, but we don’t charge you any transaction fees for that. In fact, our credit system is practically unique in that there are no transaction fees on our main line of products.

BB
I don’t get it, why isn’t your store busier than theirs?

NED
For few reasons I guess. For one, we are not originally from around here.

BB
Well none of us are, we all came to the frontier from back East.

NED
True, but our tribe came from much further East, we came from very far East. My people are called “the Eastese”. We look a little different to the locals and our traditional culture is not like the culture here.

BB
Please don’t play the racism card, that card is so tired and over-used!

NED
Don’t worry, that’s not what I was implying. We don’t have problems with racism here, we just have problems with people stuck in their comfort zones. You see Mr Brain, people like to stick to what is familiar to them. The locals here are attracted to people such as the Director of Automated Networks at “the Blocked One”, because they all originally came from the same place. When he makes mistakes, they choose to follow him blindly rather than to hold him accountable. Combined with a significant amount of denial, they are greatly hamstringing themselves by taking that approach.

BB
That’s just what I told them!

NED
There are a great many people around here who do not believe that I am capable of competing with the Blocked One, though their reasoning is largely grounded in some form of biased familiarity – a logical fallacy – but a powerful one nonetheless.

It’s ironic because, and please excuse me if this sounds boastful, back in my homeland, Ned’s Excellent Offers is the biggest name in frontier businesses!

Sadly our Eastern frontier was a very harsh place, even worse than here. We also fled into the wilderness, but government forces caught up to us and forced us to turn back and play by their rules.

BB
Oh no, that’s terrible!

NED
Well yes, and no.

They learnt that we were not going away, and we learnt how to get along with them. At first they were incredibly hostile towards our ideas, banning many of them outright, but since then they have made much progress, frustratingly slowly at first, but now the pace is finally picking up.

BB
Couldn’t you just have fled again and run even faster and further East to escape the clutches of your government?

NED
I suppose we could have kept on running, but I also realised that this was a battle we would one day have to fight. What I then did was to work with my government, advising them on frontier businesses so that they could establish policies which worked for all of us. My country is highly conservative, so it has had to implement those policies bit by bit so as not to upset the older conservatives, but things are changing fast now!

I built Ned’s Excellent Offers with government policies in mind, so that I would make it fully compliant. I could have run, but why run when you no longer need to? The government back in Eastenia is
now even becoming supportive of BTC, previously that would have been unheard of!

Best of all, and something the people over here tend to ignore, is that Eastese population back home outnumbers the locals here in the West by far! Our average wealth is considerably lower, but that is rapidly
changing as our economy develops. Us Eastese are a growing force of significant magnitude, something which often goes unnoticed, or also just gets denied.

BB
Your store, I can’t help notice that the variety of goods here is not nearly as great as at the Blocked One.

NED
There is no hiding that, you are correct. Our policy here is to stock high-quality goods. It means that we have had a slow start, but I believe that it is the correct approach and will pay future dividends. We charge our suppliers a substantial fee to place their goods on our shelves. This ensures that the fly-by-night merchants with low quality goods do not approach us to sell their wares.

BB
That could be a problem, I know a man who wants to start a District Apothecary service, I was hoping he could run his DApp as part of your store network.

NED
Give me his details. I have a growth fund which exists to help such businesses. We can help him create it and offer him substantial funding if necessary. We place great importance on growing our own little economy, that is the smart thing to do. Here at Ned’s Excellent Offers we like to act as the hub of a “smart economy”.

BB
That sounds great Ned, I’m very excited to have found you guys. Looking at the facts – free of emotion and bias – it seems to me as if you guys are indeed where the smart money is.

NED
I can not say for sure, but we would like to think so. It pains me to see people blindly follow something which isn’t working properly. Follow it, sure, but then don’t be shy to complain about it if it is failing you!

You know, we all make mistakes, even us “smart economy guys”! Back in October we tried to start a small zoo. We arranged for a few different types of Eastenian animals to be transported here.
The one consignment was a large group of yaks. They were shipped in big wooden crates marked “YEZ” – Yaks of the Eastenian Zoo. Unfortunately there was a problem with our delivery process. The crates were much
bigger than we anticipated and they started blocking up all our storage space and transport pathways. We lacked the transport capability to deal with all of them and they were coming in faster than we could carry them away.

We had rigged a system of large cranes designed to swing the YEZ crates over our buildings and to drop them gently out of the air onto the waiting transport carts. Unfortunately we forgot that we can only
process so many “air drops” at a time, after that our network gets too busy, much like the people in “suggestion mode” over at the Blocked One.

But unlike them we admitted that we had a problem. Our distribution network did behave as expected, it did what it was designed to do, but we still saw it as a problem. We have looked at how we might prevent this in the future, because we don’t want such problems again!
This may mean that we have to charge a very small amount for future transactions, but we are not going to a CPU system, we will keep it very cheap. We already have a logistics system which is Greater than Archaic Systems –
we call it “GAS”. GAS can be used to create cheap priority transactions without bottle-necking our distribution channels, especially once we revamp our own store into Ned’s Excellent Offers Version 3.0 next
year!

BB
Well Ned that does sound better than what the Blocked One is doing. I still find it hard to believe that so many supporters of that store fail to criticise it when it does wrong. I believe that creating sacred cows is very dangerous. It’s not as if the Blocked One even has a wealth of great products on their shelves, if you look closely, most of them are either fairly simple games or some type of casino equipment.

NED
That’s also true, remember what I told you about us having a policy of fewer but higher quality products?

By the way, did you ever visit Alan’s Document Archive on the far side of town?

BB
No, I don’t believe I did.

NED
Well you aren’t missing much, there is practically nothing there. His building remains “under construction” even though it’s been years since the foundations were first laid.

Alan’s Document Archive doesn’t have any documents archived in it!

Ned looks upwards, thinks for a few seconds, and then carries on speaking

NED
Well, that’s not entirely true. He does have one small document there. It’s yellowing with age now, but he still refers to it as his “whitepaper”, it’s kept under the otherwise empty front counter. Alan stands there each day, telling people how great his store will be – one day. Construction does take place, but he’s now way behind the rest of us!

BB
How does his business survive, where does he get the money from?

NED
That’s the sad thing, it’s the same sort of bias we spoke about earlier. You see, the nasty reality is that Alan’s Document Archives is valued at more than what Ned’s Excellent Offers is!

BB
You have got to be kidding me!

NED
No I swear to you! Look, we all pop in to say “hi” to Alan on a regular basis, he’s a genuinely nice guy and he tries hard. It’s not his fault that he has had issues with some of his business co-founders, that was just unfortunate. Alan also struggles to take charge of his construction team, they make him promises, he makes his investors promises, and then the construction team somehow gets behind. Over and over again. Alan gets terribly excited about his grand ideas, but we rarely see anything come to fruition.

One would think that at some stage his investors would start backing out, but they don’t. Some say that it’s because he once organised an event where he took all the investors down to the dam
just outside of town. They sat on the pier together and he read them his whitepaper. For reasons I can’t understand, the investors walked away very impressed by that “pier review” process. Basically all that
means is that a bunch of like-minded people agreed with Alan. To me that really doesn’t mean much.

At the moment everybody is just talking about how great Alan’s Document Archive will be once his wife Shelley finally arrives to help him. Shelley will no doubt make improvements,
but at the end of the day, Alan’s Document Archive remains Alan’s Document Archive.

We know that the whole town took a big knock during the bear rampage, but Alan’s Document Archive is still a lot better off in terms of public support than what I think it should be. The facts are simple:
his store has empty shelves and an incomplete building.

Yet it is worth more than mine, go figure! In fact, I’ve just heard that with all the EIDOS trouble at the Blocked One, some people are now suggesting that ADA may be the answer to their troubles! They
just don’t learn…

BB
I hear you. Supporting something you believe in is commendable, but how many times will you allow someone to drop you before you cease to enable them? How can you let people make you empty promises and then not even challenge them when they go down the wrong path?

If you are going to allow someone unrestricted free reign, then they will never develop respect for you as an investor. They are going to walk all over you. By doing so you encourage bad behaviour. That’s bad for them, bad for you, and bad for frontier developments as a whole!

NED
You are correct. No outsiders are ever going to take their projects seriously. Just imagine this scenario:

“Can I sign up for CPU?”,
“Sorry ma’am, not today, please come back in a month and bring a lot of cash.”
“What’s the problem?”
“There is no problem. Everything is working as it should.”
“But I can’t get my CPU today?”
“No ma’am. But don’t worry, this is good.”

That’s not how you do business! That much should be obvious, even to a child!

BB
Well thanks for the discussion Ned. It’s been a little depressing, but unexpectedly enlightening. I’ll be seeing you around for sure!

NED
Thanks for stopping by Mr Brain. Why not swing by my next-door neighbour on your way out? His store is called Virtual Entity Traders, it’s growth prospects are starting to look rather good now that the Eastenian government has become so friendly towards BTC and similar projects.

BB
Thanks, Ned, I think I’ll do that.

Final Curtain

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:




Aurora Went Up In Smoke This Past Week Too

The Four Horsemen of
Cannabis, Canopy Growth, Tilray, Cronos, and Aurora Cannabis announced earnings
this past week.  The end result was all
four companies announced dismal results. What was once one of the hottest
sectors a year ago, has now burned up in the smoke.   Valuation
just got way ahead of the reality. At one point, Tilray was more valuable than
50% of the companies on the S&P 500…that’s just crazy.

One of the biggest reasons is a supply shortage, as a lot of Canadian growers waited too long to expand their capacity. There’s also the issue of cultivation and processing application backlogs, as well as high tax rates in the U.S. and a significant delay in the launch of the derivatives market (derivatives are products like edibles, vape pods, and infused beverages. Plus, there’s the regulatory and accounting issues that have left investors cold.

Source

Aurora Cannabis Inc. produces and distributes medical cannabis products in Canada and internationally. The company has one of the broadest international footprints, with operations in 24 countries and production capacity that may exceed 700,000 kilograms per year at peak.  But this past Friday, Aurora shares fall the most in five years when they announced disappointing numbers and said they were cancelling or delaying plans for multiple further facilities.  Nine analysts cut their price targets on the stock after the earnings announcement, with the lowest price target being $2.80.   

What would help the industry
out a lot is making cannabis legal on the federal level in the US.  If and when this happens, you will see financial
institutions flood the industry with capital. 
At the moment most companies in the industry are cash strapped.  It’s why Aurora converted C$155 million in
debt into shares as it seeks to conserve cash. 
But many private companies aren’t in the same position Aurora is in.  For example, many companies had to resort to
buying their storefronts because landlords weren’t willing to rent them the
space. So with banks not giving these companies the time and day, with the
equity markets drying up, these companies are being forced to sell off their
assets…their real estate.

What would also help get
more capital into the industry is the passing of the SAFE Banking Act.

Sept. 25, 2019, the House of Representatives passed the Secure and Fair Enforcement Banking Act, commonly known as the SAFE Banking Act. The SAFE Banking Act, if made into law, would provide protection from federal interference for financial institutions that choose to provide financial services to CRLBs. Specifically, the SAFE Banking Act would provide a safe harbor for banks by mitigating the legal risks associated with providing banking services to state-legalized cannabis businesses.

Source

Aurora’s future remains bright nevertheless.  In December when President Trump signed the Farm Bill into law to legalize the production and sale of hemp and cannabidiol (CBD) derived from the hemp plant.  Aurora will be a significant player in the U.S. as it make inroads into the U.S. hemp CBD market.  

Also, Aurora will be the
top cannabis company in the fast-growing European cannabis market. Aurora
already ranks as the leader in Germany, the most important European medical
cannabis market.  In addition, it’s acquisition
of Agropro, the largest organic hemp producer in Europe, and Borelas, another
European hemp producer and processor, sets the company up for success over the
next ten years.

 Thus, at these depressed prices, if Aurora is priced at fair value, the market suggest to go long at the monthly demand at $2.00.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 55

Not a week covered in glory from a price point of view. Then again unless you are an active day trader, short-term price action isn’t of any particular relevance. Once more, lots of interest to discuss, reflect on and try to take-in, this past week in crypto.


Picks of the Week

Always good to have a quality report to delve into but even better to spend some quality time with Nick Szabo.


Twitter

The Bitcoin Reformation – also link to full article (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1192534287989583873

Booby Lee – bullish om long-term valuation of BTC:
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1193342924991410177

Basic math would seem to favour BTC:
https://twitter.com/JBTheCryptoKing/status/1193172906739732480

On UX design in apps:
https://twitter.com/UDIWERTHEIMER/status/1193445574055485440

EOS we have a problem:
https://twitter.com/brain_bit/status/1193592164720300032

A bit of crypto fun:
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1194034715923075072

Excellent thread on creating a podcast by Peter McCormack:
https://twitter.com/PeterMcCormack/status/1192361400703897602


Articles

An excellent crypto-ecosystem report – running a mere 134 pages (highly recommended):
https://coinsharesgroup.com/research/2019-crypto-trends-report

Alternative link to report:
https://twitter.com/Melt_Dem/status/1194373561630236672

Arguing for a higher valued Bitcoin:
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/bitcoins-price-doesnt-reflect-its

The Bitcoin Reformation – full article (highly recommended):
https://docsend.com/view/ijd8qrs

Comparing Bitcoin to the early years o the internet:
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/why-bitcoin-and-the-early-internet

A brief breakdown of the Australian crypto investor market – useful reference/snapshot tool:
https://nuggetsnews.com.au/australian-cryptocurrency-investors-tell-all-in-major-research-study/

Money seems to be concentrating in ever fewer hands:
https://www.coinspeaker.com/billionaire-population-surged/

Exploring the psychology of social networks (non-crypto specific):
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/social-media-democracy/600763/


Podcasts

A crypto education in just over an hour provide by this interview with Nick Szabo (highly recommended):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/nick-szabo-on-cypherpunks-money-and-bitcoin/id1317356120?i=1000455670093


It’s (crypto adoption) all going to take time – and a lot of it:

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-wheres-ma-sick-gainz/id1441492450?i=1000455542736


YouTube

Data Dash on BTC’s next halving:


A wide-range of miner’s perspectives on the halving (recommended):


Reflections on BTC’s current chart:


So what is ‘Internet of Things’? (English with French subtitles):


A surprisingly honest analysis of the risks of adopting long-term negative interest rates:


Infographics

Bakkt gaining some market share:

https://twitter.com/BakktBot/status/1194150752215851008/photo/1


Liquidity, anyone?

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1194485407649394690/photo/1


Website / Utility

Crypto data-sets galore:

https://www.longhash.com/en


That’s a wrap. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.


Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Dillard Bucks The Retail Trend

Dillard’s, Inc. operates retail department stores primarily in the Southeastern, Southwestern, and Midwestern areas of the United States. The company’s stores offer a selection of merchandise, including fashion apparel for women, men, and children; accessories; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods.

Image result for dillards

Can’t say I ever heard of Dillard as I live in the Northeast.  Either way, Dillard can’t hide…not from me, but from Amazon. The rise of ecommerce outlets has made it harder for traditional retailers to attract customers to their stores and there is no bigger culprit than Amazon.

The Amazon effect is the ongoing evolution and disruption of the retail market. Retailers closed over 102 million square feet of store space in 2017 and 2018 and in 2019, over 8,000 stores will close their doors.

However, Dillard got a victory today for retailers such as Macy’s, J.C Penny and Nordstrom. 

 Dillard’s Inc. DDS, +0.17% stock soared 17% in Thursday trading after it reported a surprise profit, and lifted other department store stocks with it. J.C. Penney Co. Inc. JCP, +0.90% shares jumped 5%, Macy’s Inc. M, +1.06% shares climbed nearly 3%, and Nordstrom Inc. JWN, +0.05% stock was up almost 2% on Thursday. Many department stores haven’t reported their latest quarterly earnings, heading into a holiday season with both bullish forecasts for sales but concerns about the shortened shopping period. Dillard’s stock has gained 32% for the year to date,

Source

Dillard is really bucking the trend.  I had no idea Dillard was up 32% this year.  I’m actually licking my chops…could this be a shorting opportunity…wow…this was a shorting opportunity.  The big picture shows a monthly supply zone at $104,

But my eyes are draw to the wicks near $85.  In the last four years, price has only been able to close above $85 once on the monthly chart.

Taking things down to a daily chart, price pierced the upper Bollinger Bands.   Bollinger Bands are a type of volatility indicator developed by John Bollinger. Bollinger Bands are lines plotted at a standard deviation level, typically two SD above and below a simple moving average of the price.  In sideway markets, meaning markets that aren’t trending, price will typically bounce off of one band to the other.

In the case of Dillard, price pierced the upper band and has since pulled back which presented a great opportunity for a short.

Personally I think price is going to fill the gap, but it doesn’t matter any longer as the trade set-up came and went.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.