The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 63

January 11, 2020 Published by timm

Yet another challenging week to recap – there was a literal avalanche of good/compelling material to choose from. Of course, this is a great problem to have. From elegant explanations of the value proposition of LINK to insightful reflections on the year just past and the decade to come. A wealth of fascinating content awaits the curious crypto enthusiast!

Pick of the Week

If you only have time for one thing – check out this podcast re the 21 lessons of Bitcoin – you won’t regret the investment.

Twitter

Running Bitcoin off the internet:
https://twitter.com/nwoodfine/status/1214238101796638721

A distilled version of Messari’s 2020 theses report (recommended):
https://twitter.com/elainegija/status/1214059271530467328

Two areas of BTC planning worth thinking on (recommended):
https://twitter.com/BTCSchellingPt/status/1215373435469062144

A bullish perspective on BTC for 2020:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/Noakp7n5-Why-I-believe-Bitcoin-will-retest-All-Time-Highs-by-July-1-2020/

An ETH equivalent of Silk road has yet to emerge:
https://twitter.com/teo_leibowitz/status/1215072430588342272

Time to move from research to market?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1215365982694170624

An advocate for LINK explains why it already has a significant market advantage (recommended):
https://twitter.com/TheShipIsMoving/status/1214623803961225217

Sometimes it’s better to keep your opinions to yourself (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1215428990724386816

It’s good to be rich (who knew?):
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1213137465327751169

The US economy is fine, no really:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1215428090656018432

Articles

BTC by the numbers 11 years on (highly recommended):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/happy-birthday-bitcoin-heres-a-look-at-bitcoins-11th-year-by-the-numbers

From skeptic to Bitcoiner a common path (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@ssaurel/from-skeptical-to-bitcoiner-the-7-steps-journey-followed-by-more-and-more-people-d199b8d2d5da

Crypto policy trends and predictions for 2020 (recommended):
https://messari.io/article/crypto-policy-trends-and-predictions-for-2020

The decade ahead (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-will-happen-to-cryptocurrency-in-the-2020s-d93746744a8f

The decade just past (highly recommended):
https://blog.coinbase.com/what-happened-in-crypto-over-the-last-decade-ee6a2552d630

Crypto banking is on its way (recommended):
https://blog.deribit.com/insights/the-great-race-to-crypto-banking/

Thinking big about EOS (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/dappiness-solutions/eosio-think-bigger-c10dfadedc63

China’s smallest province has become a blockchain hub:
https://technode.com/2020/01/02/blockchain-hub-takes-root-in-chinas-smallest-province/

An exploration of the Coinbase approach to crypto:
https://nakamoto.com/coinbases-pragmatic-crypto-culture/

An admirably in-depth report of 2019 for XRP:
https://www.xrparcade.com/news/xrp-2019-yearly-report/

Deciphering DeFi (recommended):
https://nakamoto.com/beginners-guide-to-defi/

Podcast

Bitcoin focused – lots to learn here (highly recommended):

YouTube

A light-hearted but nonetheless insightful look back on 2019 (highly recommended):

Despite a questionable track record – some useful insights into 2020 (recommended):

Meaningful progress on EOS congestion with changes to REX:

An excellent overview of Filecoin (not a project to invest in but useful to be aware of imo):

Will the equity party end with a bang or a whimper?

Infographic

Now that’s a healthy-looking network:

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1212003395978092545/photo/1

Website / Utility

A new and growing resource for though-provoking articles on crypto (controversially not just BTC focused):

https://nakamoto.com/

Yet again, a whole lot to take-in from just one week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Unusual Options Activity In Met Life

January 11, 2020 Published by rollandthomas

MetLife, Inc. engages in
the insurance, annuities, employee benefits, and asset management businesses. The company offers life, dental, group short-
and long-term disability, individual disability, accidental death and
dismemberment, vision, and accident and health coverages, etc. Serving
approximately 100 million customers, MetLife has operations in more than 40
countries and holds leading market positions in the United States, Japan, Latin
America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

MetLife was named Life
Insurance Company of the Year at the 2019 Middle East Insurance Industry Awards
(MIIA), organized by Middle East Insurance Review. As the fourth time recipient
of the award, MetLife was commended for its customer focus and recognized for
its efforts in enhancing the customer experience.

Last month, MetLife was
named one of America’s “Most Responsible Companies” by Newsweek
magazine. MetLife was the top-ranked insurance company on Newsweek’s inaugural
list, and number 19 of all 300 companies recognized.

Several months ago, MetLife got into the financial service business when it bought Bequest, Inc. Bequest helps customers draw up legally valid wills and estate planning documents online.

But an interesting move Metlife
made several weeks ago, was when it bought PetFirst Healthcare, a fast-growing
pet health insurance administrator.

The love affair with
pets, in particular cats and dogs goes back to the Egyptian times. Back in the
Egyptian times, dogs and cats were laid to rest in elaborate tombs decorated
with inscriptions, furnished with treasure and scented by incense. It’s
believed that dogs and cats improve human physical and mental health.

68% of households in
America have a pet. This is double the percentage of households that have
children. And pet owners will do practically anything or their cat or dog.

The pet insurance market is under-penetrated and fast-growing. The roughly 85 million families that own pets in the United States spend $18 billionii annually on veterinary care, yet, as of 2018, less than 2 percentiii of pets were insured. Following the acquisition, PetFirst will continue to market pet insurance through animal welfare societies and its direct-to-consumer channel. Beginning in the summer of 2020, MetLife will offer this pet insurance to employers through its leading group benefits distribution channel, reaching approximately 41 million employees and dependents across the U.S.

Katie Blakeley, CEO of PetFirst said, “For more than 15 years, we have proudly focused on developing products and services to meet the growing and evolving needs of pet parents across the U.S. During this time, we have seen pet insurance continue to gain importance as a valuable product for families. With MetLife’s tremendous reach and resources, we see a strong opportunity to help more pet parents get access to pet insurance and alleviate the potential financial burden of a sick or injured pet.”

Source

Metlife now offers a broader suite of products to serve their customers and their financial strengths is admired by investors. So it only makes sense that yesterday, I noticed unusual options activity. The Smart Money bought over 50,000 March call options with strike price at $55.

What’s interesting about this trade is that price is approaching a weekly demand zone at $54.50. If I had to put my money on the zone or the Smart Money, my money would go to the Smart Money all the time. Stay tuned.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Technical Analysis BTC / USD

January 9, 2020 Published by mrbullishsail

BTC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the current candlestick has tested the important supply zone located at 8215 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal color, coinciding with the diagonal resistance of the major figure, this was an expected movement to complete the WXY correction pattern, the price should now go in search of the weekly demand located within the range of 6200 – 6314 to form the point (Y).

BTC seen from the 1D time frame we can observe more closely the current candlestick movement where we see how the price has formed a high at 8158, this supply level has not been taken, therefore, we could still have some confirmation wick in that price before the price gives us a signal to continue falling, we have an important support located at 7629 indicated within the chart by the red horizontal, if for the moment the price does not take the supply today, we could see a rebound in that support looking for the supply level at 8158.

In conclusion, BTC has formed an important high under the resistance of this parallel channel, the 8215 has been tested correctly leaving us with a maximum at 8500, for now we should wait for the price to continue falling or form a LH under the diagonal resistance to have confirmation, while the price does not claim the level located at 8215 we can not expect the price to continue rising, Based on the WXY pattern, we should have a new entry in the range of 6200 – 6314 where the price would form a double floor as a reversal signal in key support and confirmation point (Y), therefore, I recommend following the 1D price action very closely and always remember to place your stop losses to avoid possible invalidations during the move.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies 2020

January 8, 2020 Published by bitbrain

Yes I am still alive. (Sorry to disappoint you politicians, mass media journalists, bankers and other scum – you don’t get off the hook that easily!)

My recent silence has not been voluntary, unfortunately I am once again looking after an injured wife. Sadly this takes up the majority of my time, but now that she is slowly on the mend, I will try to get
back to my neglected blogging.

Let’s take a holistic view of the markets, looking at Bitcoin in particular but also at a few related events/issues/etc.

The year started with a bang – a literal bang if your name is (was) General Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Let us pause for a moment on this single issue, because the ramifications of that attack are potentially far-reaching. I’m not going to go into whether the attack was justified or not, what Iran did to deserve it etc – go down that path and you get lost in the nitty gritty – that I will leave up to you to decide for yourselves. Since this post is more about BTC than about how the world works, I’ll skip the detailed political/military/economic analysis and will merely mention the high level interesting effects that I think this attack has brought to light.

Bit Brainian thoughts to ponder over:

Media coverage was immediate and widespread – to a disproportionate degree if viewed against similar events.
- This is exactly like the disproportionate amount of coverage received by Greta Thunberg. If you want to know more about how and why this happens, then don’t miss this spectacluar eye-opener: “When Children Cry”.
Wars make a very useful national distraction for presidents who are struggling with domestic opposition – Clinton launched a similar attack prior to his impeachment trial.
- If you want to unite a divided population, then few things work better than a war. People forget their differences when they combine against an external “threat” – whether than threat is real or just a perceived threat created by the government propaganda machine (like the “threat” posed by Jews to Germany in the WWII era).
This was an inflationary move (in terms of tension and military aggression) that will destabilise the world. There is no telling how far this destabilising effect will go – a chain reaction is hard to control. With the global economy already on shaky ground, the tipping point of grand-scale economic systems-failure could come sooner (weeks or months) rather than later (within a year or two).
Bitcoin price shot up due to instability and uncertainty – or FUD if you prefer. Such a rise is a panic reaction and is based on very little fundamental reasoning.
- The goldfish-like memories of investors may soon fade, sending the price of BTC back down by maybe $500 to $1000.
- Ironically the more intelligent long-term investors will have been buying up BTC for years because of long-term instability and uncertainty of the fiat-based markets.
It’s interesting to note how BTC was clearly used as a store-of-value as soon as an international crisis loomed.
- BTC’s transformation into “Digital Gold” in the eyes investors has spread beyond the realm of early adopters and is entering the mainstream collective psyche.
  - …which just makes Peter Schiff’s incoherent panic-ranting look ever more pathetic!

Bitcoin

My last post of 2020 “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” showed how everything was running exactly according to plan and prediction. Well, it was running exactly according to MY plans and predictions – if you follow lesser analysts and their incorrect tales of weak TA fiction, then that’s your own problem.

The post mentioned above was published on 16 December and I haven’t actually needed to update you since then, because that post has been right on the money ever since. Let’s recap a little and see what’s happening now.

The day after I wrote that post I posted this Tweet:

16 hours after Tweeting that, the price of BTC hit a seven month low and turned (generally) positive. The prediction was based on a triple-line convergence point, the details of which may be found in “Bitcoin – Approaching 2020” and which remain valid.

It must be mentioned that THE BITCOIN PRICE TURNAROUND HAS YET TO BE CONFIRMED!

Until BTC has conclusively broken through the top of the descending channel, the scenario that BTC may continue to trend downwards remains. I BELIEVE that the price movement of BTC (and of crypto in general) has now turned around, but at this stage I am still willing to concede that I may be mistaken – though the evidence suggests that I am not.

To break out of the channel, BTC will have to break through the red zone depicted on the chart below.

Note in the chart above that BTC price is currently well above my projected price line (yellow), so (as I said earlier) don’t panic if the FUD-based buying comes to an abrupt halt and the price drops into the mid $7000s.

On the other hand, this buying spree and obvious faith placed in BTC as a store-of-value may well trigger another bull run and send crypto prices to new ATHs. At this stage we can’t tell what will happen yet, so just keep calm and take it day by day, remembering that crypto investing is a long-term game.

The performance of altcoins in 2020 suggests that crypto sentiment has indeed swung positive. Those who didn’t pick up alts in December (or earlier) may have missed the best opportunity to do so, though seen in the greater scheme of things altcoins are still ridiculously cheap and are well worth buying! Just remember that many altcoins are utter rubbish (even some big name alts, hey XRP? Hey BSV?), so choose carefully. Sure, the price of the bad coins will probably Moon when the other alts do, but so did the price of BitConnect once upon a time…

With the apparent change in sentiment, I have begun constructing new positive Fib levels (as opposed to the negative ones I was using in the descending channel – as seen above). These are still in the test phase and will require considerable tuning before they start to yield information worthy of “prediction value”. For what it’s worth, my positive Fib levels look like this for now:

I will probably keep the positive Fib levels away from my primary BTC chart for the time being, until such a time as I have confirmed that the descending channel is no longer governing BTC’s price movement. Adding too much data to a chart just becomes confusing and is undesirable, the fewer lines there are on a chart, the more I can see.

Conclusion:

As described in my older posts, I expect BTC to now hover just above my Long-term Base Trendline for the foreseeable future – probably most of 2020. At some stage (or possibly stages) BTC will rise sharply up from that line and we will have another bull market – probably an unbelievably strong record-breaking one. Maybe it won’t be one big one, but rather a series of smaller bull runs, much like the mini-run we saw in mid-2019.

Whatever the outcome, I remain more bullish on BTC than ever before. I’m a long-term investor, when I buy something I’m looking at least five years into the future, more likely a decade or longer. I got into crypto because I saw the long-term potential of decentralised blockchain technology, a potential which will surely be realised.

I think that 2020 will be the year that the masses warm up to the idea of BTC, this will be the year that Bitcoin moves from “geek money” to “legitimate alternative investment”.

Remember that crypto is only a part of a balanced portfolio. I believe that crypto is very important, but I also believe in not putting all one’s eggs in one basket. You can, for example, be a fan of both Bitcoin AND Gold, or even Bitcoin and Stocks – don’t let short-sighted fools like Schiff of Buffett polarise your views.

I wish you all a merry 2020, and I look forward to interacting with all of you wonderful blockchain-friendly visionaries over the course of the year.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

Did You Miss The Gold Move…Don’t Worry…

January 7, 2020 Published by rollandthomas

Lat month, gold fell below the psychological whole number of $1500 and was 5% down from the 6-year-peak reached in September due to profit taking and investors wanting to take on more risks. But the charts told you where the sellers were going to step before hand and for that matter where the buyers were going to step in before hand as well based on the monthly supply and demand zones.

Gold never did hit the monthly demand, missed the zone by $5 and has since rallied. The US air strike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump that killed Qassem Soleimani, has been the catalyst not only for gold, but all the other precious metals as well.

But if you missed the rally in gold, don’t worry, according to one article I read this morning, gold is due for a pull back.

Gold is almost guaranteed to record losses in the next two weeks, if history is any guide.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the yellow metal soared to 86 on Monday, well above the level of 70 that typically suggests securities are overbought. Previously, there have been only three times since 2000 when the RSI rose above 85, and in each instance bullion fell over the next 10 trading days. The loss averaged 1% compared with a gain of 7% over the previous 10 session.

To be sure, in all three occasions — October 2010, February 2016 and June 2019 — gold eventually resumed its rally. But the momentum had slowed. Gold performs best when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions, the bulk of the moves in rates and the dollar may be over for now. And the same is probably true for the bounce in gold, at least in the short term.

Source

From my perspective, there is only one reason why gold will pull back and that’s because price are in a monthly supply zone.

Supply and demand zones can often indicate institutional buying and selling. The big market participants cannot just enter one trade at once, they need to slowly build their position over time. And often their positions are so large that they will absorb most unfilled orders before price make big and explosive moves on price charts.

Take for instance the daily supply at $1560. Price entered the daily supply and two days later shot down, but when price returned to the zone several months later, well there weren’t any unfilled orders remaining at that level.

On Sunday, price gapped up into a monthly supply zone and has sense formed a shooting star candle, which is is a bearish and signals a reversal.

But again, the shooting star only formed because the Smart Money was able to fill, unfilled orders at that level. Ideally, what I would like to see is price breach the monthly supply at $1600, pull back, then move higher to the monthly supply at $1700. But this may or may not happen in that order. So if you missed the rally and want to get long, two level to consider are the daily demand at $1520, but I think the better level to go long is at $1475.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Tesla Continues To Beat The Odds

January 5, 2020 Published by rollandthomas

Earlier in 2019, a former hedge fund manager, Whitney Tilson said Tesla will be below $100 by the end of 2019. At the time, Tesla was trading at $295, but Whitney felt Musk has no more rabbits to pull out of his hat and therefore it was all downhill from there. Whitney also felt for the first time, the number of investors losing faith in Musk is starting to exceed the number of investors. Two months, Tesla announced that was looking to raise almost $3 billion in debt and equity, with Elon buying $25 million in stock as good faith, upping Elon’s stake in the company to 20%.

One of the more famous short sellers is Jim Chanos. Jim Chanos is an American investment manager and currently serves as president and founder of Kynikos Associates, a New York City registered investment advisor who is focused on short selling.

Jim is the same person that made headlines when he said Grubhub was a short due to Grubhub’s inability to make any money on each order. Weeks later, Grubhub announced dismal earnings and the stock tanked.

Regarding Tesla, there were rumors that Jim Chanos covered his shorts on Tesla, but it was in fact just a rumor. What concerns Jim is that Tesla’s valuation within a capital intensive business, making cars. Jim thinks the Model S is a great car, but the competition is knocking on the door. In addition, he feels demand for the Model 3 in North America has peaked. And lastly, Jim feels Elon’s behavior is “promotional,” meaning he promises the world, but under delivers.

Short sellers have long targeted Tesla shares and currently have almost a $10 billion bet against the Tesla according to data from the financial analytics firm S3 Partners. The 28 million shares shorted amount to 21% of total shares outstanding, according to S3.

But there is one bull, who has been bullish on Tesla for many years.

Catherine’s firm focuses disruptive technologies and thinks electric there will be millions and millions of cars on the road faster than people realize. She believe Tesla isn’t a car company, but a technology company, Tesla is one of her fund’s largest holdings. In February of 2018 she went on CNBC and said she believes Tesla could hit $4000 and that her bear case was $600. In recent weeks, she went back on CNBC and reiterated her targets for Tesla.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares gained 3% on Friday after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter delivery numbers. The electric vehicle stock is now up 99% in just the past six months, but Tesla short sellers are seemingly still not convinced the rally will last.

Tesla reported 112,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating consensus analyst estimates of 106,000 vehicles. For the full year, Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019, up 50% from 2018. The 367,500 deliveries was on the low end of the company’s 2019 guidance range of between 360,000 and 400,000 deliveries.

On Friday, S3 Partners analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky said there are still 27.64 million shares of Tesla held short, a position worth about $11.89 billion. That short interest represents about 20.6% of Tesla’s float.

Source

If the current price action doesn’t scare the Shorts, Tesla delivered the first China-made Model 3 one week ago. During their fourth quarter earnings call, Tesla announced that factory has already demonstrated production run-rate of 3,000 units per week and they have the necessary means to get to 150,000 units / year or 40% of Tesla’s current annualized global deliveries.

The fact that price broke out last month, the chart suggest the Shorts are due in for more pain ahead.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 62

January 4, 2020 Published by timm

The first recap of the year and what a week it’s been. Not in terms of price developments but rather quality articles and crypto discussions/narratives. This recap contains only a small fraction of the great material to emerge this week as we launch into cryptos second decade.

Who really knows if 2020 will be a good year for crypto investors? It’s simply impossible to say with certainty. However, what does seem reasonable to assert is that this will be cryptos decade. The 2020s will see crypto projects move from development to mainstream application. Many, indeed most, will fail but the precious few that make the transition from promising tech to utilized product/service will be a very big deal indeed.

Oh, and Happy 11th Birthday Bitcoin.

Picks of the Week

Nic Carter on BTC is a great way to kick off your crypto-themed researched in 2020. This article exploring some of the messianic aspects of BTC is also a fascinating read. To round-off check out this piece by Bloomberg discussing China’s rollout of a state-sponsored crypto.

Twitter

Some folks just want to pay attention:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1211072538459029504

So how did the top cryptos perform (in terms of price) in 2019?:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1210776029221900288

Looking at the BTC chart on a price and time log scale – very interesting patterns emerge (highly recommended)
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1212546960596463616

An excellent roundup of Chainlink’s purpose and structure (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/DLTPandu/status/1211286825576411136

It’s early days for DEXs (recommended):
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1212802056467169280

A dive into crypto governance:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1212167506070130688

China has big plans for crypto (highly recommended):
https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1212434441114734593

Great use humour to deflate the crypto women haters out there:
https://twitter.com/La__Cuen/status/1209151285540184064

Useful guidelines before you put pen to paper (highly recommended if content creator):
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1211284340983754753

As an investor strive for this:
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1207692433947078656

Articles

Read this piece on BTC to get your crypto year off to the right start (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-times/the-cat-is-out-of-the-bag-fc1344c46bc1

Most financial advisers are a long way from ‘up to date’ on Bitcoin (recommended):
https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/financial-advisors-hate-bitcoin-their-reasons-will-drive-you-crazy-1df9fe417624

An interesting thought experiment viewing BTC as a start-up (recommended):
https://medium.com/@hassmccook/bitcoin-as-a-startup-769c387c97ca

BTC through the lens of religious revelation (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/@dustindreifuerst/the-citadel-the-emergence-of-bitcoin-utopianism-eb44ddf76290

So what exactly is Defi? (highly recommended):
https://medium.com/coinmonks/what-is-defi-2cee0dceeeab?

A light-hearted look at EOS in 2019 – highly entertaining/informative (recommended):
https://www.eoswriter.io/166040_eos-popcorn-episode-7.eos

Gaming and crypto will be a thing:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/gaming-is-key-to-the-mass-adoption-of-crypto

End-to-End Decentralized Applications Democratize Data and Drive the Open-Source Movement Forward:
https://medium.com/the-liquidapps-blog/unhackable-ungameable-immortal-dapps-are-a-class-of-their-own-1de14d54ba7c

China is about to go full crypto – it’s going to change a lot more than you may think (highly recommended):
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-29/china-has-edge-over-silicon-valley-to-end-banking-as-we-know-it

CZ on Binance in 2019 (recommended):
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/419417682154909696/Binance-2020-New-Year-Message-Building-Foundations–

Ever heard of a ‘factor’? It might be a thing:
https://medium.com/trading-politics/this-will-cause-the-next-financial-crisis-e102264fe511

Podcasts

Meltem Demirors reflects on the first decade of BTC (recommended but skip to the 4-minute mark):

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/meltem-demirors-on-first-decade-existence-bitcoin-ep/id1347049808?i=1000460284544

A review the Lightning Network in 2019:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7n0Pp1eVsOfJ2h5wbhnAGD

YouTube

The Crypto Lark looks to the decade ahead (food for thought but by no means investment-grade content):

DataDash explains why he is optimistic for the year ahead:

Investing with a Difference surveys the state of the EOS ecosystem and looks ahead to 2020:

Liquidity and trading:

https://www.binance.vision/economics/liquidity-explained

Infographics

This crypto thing is not catching on:

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/51526/at-least-18-central-banks-are-developing-sovereign-digital-currencies

That’s a lot of traders on the wrong side of a trade (cough – leverage trading is not a good idea):

https://twitter.com/cryptounfolded/status/1211309525078355968/photo/1

Website / Utility

A growing collection of thought-provoking articles on BTC:

https://www.unchained-capital.com/blog/author/plewis/

Another crypto week behind us. An incredibly exciting year ahead. See you once again down this ever-deepening rabbit hole next week.

Note on Sources:

It Appears Baker Hughes Has Reversed

January 3, 2020 Published by rollandthomas

In the third-quarter of 2019, Citadel made 9-digit purchases in three particularly interesting stocks, one of which was Baker Hughes Company. Baker Hughes Company provides integrated oilfield products, services, and digital solutions worldwide. Citadel bought just over 13 million shares of BKR stock worth almost $300.

The man behind Citadel is Ken Griffin. Ken is the founder and CEO who started Citadel at the young age of 22. Prior to that starting Citiadel, in 1987, Ken, a then-19-year-old sophomore at Harvard University, started trading from his dorm room with a fax machine, a personal computer, and a telephone. Citadel manages over $200 billion in assets and is the one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

Also bullish on Baker Huges during that time was Cowen analyst Marc Bianchi, who had a price target of $30 price target. Now the issue with Baker Huges is, they are an oil service companies, so if there is a supply glut, oil rigs will go offline and exploration will decrease, which means a decrease Baker’s services.

One month ago, Baker’s prices was nearing a 10+ year low and the chart suggested there was more downside risk.

But since that time, it appears Baker’s price has reversed.

Credit Suisse Group is a leading financial services company, advising clients in all aspects of finance, across the globe. The company was founded, based in Switzerland Founded in 1856 with headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland, has operations in over 50 countries and has named Baker Hughes one of their three top energy plays for 2020.

Last fall, BKR entered into a partnership with C3.ai and Microsoft, a three-way joint venture to develop ai cloud-based AI software solutions for the oil industry.

Just two weeks before announcing the partnership, BKR had reported strong Q3 earnings. Revenues and EPS both gained year-over-year, with the top line hitting $5.88 billion and EPS coming in at 21 cents. During the quarter BKR also improved its free cash flow, generating an FCF of $161 million.

Jacob Lundberg, reviewing the stock for Credit Suisse, took a bullish stance. Lundberg put a $28 price target on BKR, backing up a Buy rating. His target suggests a 9% upside to BKR stock. BKR is another stock with a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating, this one backed by 9 recent Buy reviews. The $29 average price target suggests an upside premium of 14% from the $25.43 current share price.

Source

Deutsche Bank’s Chris Snyder sees the company as a “top pick” and stated their $20 billion in Turbomachinery & Process Solutions line is a significantly under-appreciated element at Baker and will drive multiple expansion and has a $32 price target.

And in mid-December, the US oil and gas rig count increased by double digits for the first time since April, according reaching 813 rigs after increasing by 14 for the week, according to Baker Hughes.

Thus, the chart suggests, price can move higher to the daily supply at $32.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 61

December 28, 2019 Published by timm

Just to add some Christmas spice YouTube went and took down a who’s who of Crypto. After much ado, most of the channels are back up and running again. The silver lining – yet another reminder that centralized services may refuse such services as and when they choose. In addition, commonplace shady practices such as promoting leverage trading and pushing sponsored but undeclared reviews of ICOs/IEOs on ‘information’ channels may be reduced, at least in the short-term.

Though many high-profile projects are up significantly for the year, 2019 didn’t broadly deliver in terms of price. Nonetheless, a lot has been accomplished – the infrastructure of crypto has never been more robust. Doubtless, many more projects will go to the wall in the coming year. A scattershot approach to crypto investing in 2020 is unlikely to pay dividends. Whether next year leads to significant price gains remains unknown but as with most things, patience is likely to be rewarded at some point. The question isn’t really if but when – may as well use the time productively!

Picks of the Week

Hard to look past these two reports – one reflecting on 2019, the other focused on the year to come.

Twitter

Let’s start with some predictions (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1206568081016803328

An optimistic take on the coming year:
https://twitter.com/Steven_McKie/status/1206750565834706944

A decade of inflation compared to BTC (recommended):
https://twitter.com/crypto_rand/status/1208073313161011201

VC funded projects don’t necessarily make for good initial investments:
https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1206239305397624833

The BTC halvening is not priced in:
https://twitter.com/Knightfall21/status/1209984695229964288

A thread arguing that consistently highlighting ETH flaws is not equal to an attack on the project (recommended):
https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1208687186306064384

Top crypto projects could do with improving their transparency and engagement with investors:
https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1207143847588962305

Perhaps having a figurehead for your crypto project is a mixed blessing:
https://twitter.com/MarkBeylin/status/1207445732095143948

Is a crypto credit bubble really a concern at this point? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/SpartanBlack_1/status/1210159551858671616

ETH2 inevitably a hardfork?
https://twitter.com/thibauld/status/1208398273507143682

Proposed EOS REX changes should be an improvement:
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1208478884695617537

Liquidity is key – not a lot of it going around:
https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1209093579509059584

Analysing HitBTC’s wallets – is it insolvent? (recommended):
https://twitter.com/Raindropactual/status/1208241130342629376

2019 asset returns:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208386891176792065

Markets at all-time highs:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1208417033316130817

Articles

Excellent round-up of crypto 2019 (highly recommended:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vc-DGG0iqEBQqNlsr5x6vxGxWUAEdgV3/view

Looking ahead to 2020 another excellent report (highly recommended);
https://messari.io/report/crypto-theses-for-2020

500 Bitcoin related bylines:
https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com/

Bitcoin as a hedge against your government (recommended):
https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-hedge-against-your-government

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/

The next BTC rally will be a thing of beauty – here are three reasons why (recommended):
https://medium.com/swlh/three-reasons-the-next-bitcoin-rally-will-be-monumental-e2d8b407c569

Reflections on a year of playing with BTC (recommended):
https://www.coindesk.com/hanukkah-reflections-on-my-year-of-toying-with-bitcoin

DappRadar 2019 Review ETH/EOS/TRON (recommended):
https://dappradar.com/blog/dappradar-2019-dapp-industry-review/

Podcast

No love for Alts here but many sound arguments re Alt valuations nonetheless (highly recommended):

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mP4FLxYyPlidAamyBVDQX

YouTube

A brief update on the recent Crypto cull:

Anton Antonopoulos looks beyond single chain dominance (highly recommended):

A brief discussion of crypto folks to be aware of:

https://cheddar.com/media/top-people-to-watch-in-crypto-for

A wide-ranging interview with BTC evangelist Anthony Pompliano:

Colin unpacks recent SEC guidance on the definition of an ‘Accredited Investor.’

Infographic

IEOs largely failed to deliver value for investors in 2019:

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1206808582026477568/photo/1

Signing off for 2019. It’s going to be a profoundly interesting decade! As always, looking forward to hearing from you.

Note on Sources:

The Sunday Crypto Recap -Down the Rabbit Hole 60

December 21, 2019 Published by timm

With the year coming to a close there’s lots to reflect on. Did price – rocket as hoped -no it did not. Is that a problem for the health of the cryptosphere as a whole – no – not at all. 2020 may also flatter to deceive but in the long-run, there’s much to look forward to.

Picks of the Week

Once again it’s hard to select just a few items to highlight. Perhaps if you only check out one thing it should this top 100 figures in crypto. If you can stretch to two then this thread on Ethereum’s ‘Ice Age’ feature is well worth your time.