The Sunday Crypto Recap – Down the Rabbit Hole 54

Probably not a week that saw your portfolio increase in value. Bearish short-term outlook seems confirmed but the reasons to hold crypto remain as strong as ever. Having said that should the markets in general drop steeply (in the short to medium term) crypto will follow – better to be aware of this ‘reality’ and plan accordingly. It bears repeating – this is a long-term play – the cryptos that survive and eventually thrive will bring great reward to ‘early’ investors but this is over a multi-year horizon (closer to 2030 than 2020). If it’s life-changing wealth you pursue – only a realistic time frame will get you there.

Picks of the Week

Twitter this week was a literal treasure trove of crypto themes, narratives, analysis and discussions. Just a few examples being – Bitcoin as a religious journey, a critique of the stock to flow model, Altcoins as Oscillators or Degenerators, and a brief analysis of BTC where price equals difficulty.

In addition, this by Crypto Daily is essential viewing for those looking to understand the current ‘context’ of the cryptosphere.


Nic Carter predicts looming regulatory clampdown – I tend to agree:

How to stifle BTC:

A brief rebuttal of the stock to flow model:

On Altcoins as ‘Oscillators or Degenerators’ (highly recommended):

BTC price = difficulty?:

Bitcoin as akin to a religious experience (highly recommended):

On Binance and its current market advantage relative to newcomers:

1971 was a sea-change year:

On crypto conferences:


A comparative analysis of exchange token valuations (highly recommended):

Refuting the theory that 2017’s price bubble was caused by a single player:

The ever-interesting Bit Brain on the onlook for Altcoins:

Ray Dalio on why the present financial system has lost its way (highly recommended):

The origin of money by Nick Szabo (highly recommended):


A return to the stock to flow model of PlanB – even if are skeptical of the model there’s a wealth of pertinent material here(highly recommended):


Undoubtedly Crypto Daily’s finest work to date -despite the light-hearted delivery this is a must-watch for folks with a long-term interest in crypto (highly recommended):

Discussing BTC’s supply/fee model (recommended):

A BTC prediction for 2020:

Colin continues his stellar work on EOS governance reform:

The Crypto Lark discusses Ray Dalio’s assessment of the current state of the financial system:


Folks are still buying BTC:

CME institutional futures have turned markedly bullish:

Website / Utility

Weeks of high-quality content here for the crypto enthusiast who wishes to look under the hood (highly recommended):

While price may have disappointed – the space as an environment I which to learn certainly did not! As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.

Note on Sources:

Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.

Rental Price Growth Gets Cut in Half From A Year Ago

Rental prices have seen aggressive growth over the past five years, but the gas tank may finally be getting low with prices over the past year growing half as much as recent years.

Raising Rents as an Investment Strategy May Get Difficult

A lot of this is market dependent and growth could certainly kick up again, but the rates have been steadily strong prior to this year so it’s worth keeping an eye on this data going forward and adjusting strategy if needed.

Nationwide Rate

As a whole rental prices increased 1.4% year over year, according to data, while the month over month change for October was 0.1%.

Picking Growing Markets Is Important

Many real estate investors in recent years, especially those doing large multifamily deals have used a strategy of acquiring under performing properties, sprucing them up and raising rents as units are turned over.

Then, with the cap rate higher due to the increased rents they can refinance out of an original loan and pull a good chunk of equity or just sell outright for a profit.

It is a solid strategy, but we can’t just blindly assume higher rents will be supported indefinitely.  Capital improvements will help attract higher rents, but in the end the market dictates the ultimate cap regardless of how nice a place is.

This is why it is imperative to pick strong growing markets.  That doesn’t just mean in rental prices, it means a growing population with increasing job opportunities.

That will help provide the market growth needed, but will also hold up the best if we hit a period of stagnation in the future.

Growing vs. Shrinking

Here is a glimpse at some states with the best and worst year over year growth.

  • Arizona: 3.5% growth
  • North Dakota: 2.9% growth
  • North Carolina: 2.7% growth
  • Nevada: 2.6% growth
  • Delaware: 2.4% growth

Rental prices falling:

  • West Virginia: -0.8% growth
  • Louisiana: -0.6% growth
  • Alaska: -0.3% growth
No Red Flags, but Pay Mind

As you can see there are some leaders and some laggards of the 1.4% national average.

The good news is we still have growth in rental prices, the bad news is growth has slowed a considerable amount over the past year.

Again, it is data worth watching, especially for those with the business model of aggressively raising rents on new projects as growth projections may not keep pace compared to recent years.