KNC technical analysis

KNC seen from the temporality of 1W we can see how the structure of candles has formed a double floor pattern as a sign of reversal of trend on the diagonal support, indicated within the chart above by the diagonal dark blue, in the chart I have enclosed by an oval yellow series of candles prior to the current candlestick with strong volume, the best entered was in the zone of demand located at 0.00001870 indicated within the above chart by the lower horizontal black color, the current candle is finding resistance in the supply zone located within the price range of 0.00002461 – 0.00002560, if we achieve the closing above that zone, we should have a next impulse towards our first profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341 indicated within the above chart by the two upper horizontal black color.

KNC seen from the temporality of 1D we can observe more closely the current movement of candles where we see how the price has maintained a correct movement over the area of demand, the current candle has tested the area of supply, we need a close above and confirmation to continue above, otherwise, the price could fall before the possible break, we see in the previous movement as the price has tested the resistance of the figure indicated within the chart above by the diagonal red color, this was a good confirmation that pushed this series of candles to the testing of the price range of 0. 00002461 – 0.00002560.

In conclusion, KNC also presents a bullish scenario that should have no trouble outbidding and moving towards our profit target located within the price range of 0.00003075 – 0.00003341, the current movement could continue to be driven without regression, but it would be advisable to wait for the closing of the current candle in 1D and see the reaction of the price in 4H to confirm the next movement, we must be very attentive to that price action not to stay out or to find our best entry position, the price must keep the diagonal dark blue that has been working as a support to have continuation of the opposite, the price would go in search of a new LL, always remember to place their stop loss in each operation to avoid possible invalidations during the movement.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

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Dollar Tree Got Cut To Fifty Leaves

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates through two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00.

Dollar Tree is the largest dollar chain with over 15, 000 stores.  Dollar Tree has been successful to this point because of their perceived value.  Essentially you pay for what you get and the items are sold in a smaller unit size.  But they have done some clever things as well.  They have kept the items they sell to a minimum, so they have a high inventory turns and stores do required a whole lot footprint and they sell a ton of private label items, which helps their margins.

To compete with the likes of Walmart, they purchased Family Dollar in 2015 to expand their customer base. Dollar Tree caters to people who live in the suburbs, while Family Dollar caters to people who live in urban.   However, Family Dollar really never did their homework prior to the purchase.   Family Dollar customers have a lower income than their suburban counterparts and less likely to make impulse buys because of their budget.  That one major difference between the two customer base has hurt the earnings ever since the acquisition.

Dollar Tree finally recognized the bad business choice they made in 2015 and have since closed over 500 Family Dollar stores in 2019 and will re-brand another 1000 Family Dollar stores to Dollar Tree stores.

Dollar Tree reported earnings on Tuesday. Dollar Tree stock fell 10% on Tuesday after the company posted disappointing earnings results and gave guidance that underwhelmed Wall Street. The trade war between the US and China and the tariffs has hurt margins due to sourcing a large chunk of their merchandise from China. In addition, issues at its Family Dollar brand are pinching the company’s results. Dollar Tree posted earnings per share of $1.08, below expectations for $1.13. Its revenue of $5.75 billion narrowly beat expectations for $5.74 billion.

So where is price heading next, lets go to the charts? Price is clearly in an uptrend, but it would of been nice if prices on the monthly chart closed above the most recently high. Thus, this lowers the probability that price will make a new higher high.

However, the uptrend is an uptrend, until it not. Thus, the chart suggest to go long at the daily demand at $85.50.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Two Minute Crypto – Deciphering China’s Blockchain Play – Part 3 of 5

Click the link below to listen to the 64th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.

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China’s Blockchain Play Part 3 of 5 – The Domestic Scenario

Welcome to
Two Minute Crypto. This week focuses on the likely implications of China’s apparent
‘embrace’ of blockchain for ‘local’ projects. On the face of it – China’s ‘blockchain
good’ stance would seem incredibly bullish for home-grown initiatives. High-profile
chains such as NEO, Ontology and Tron spring to mind. With state sanction and access
to market of over a billion people – the outlook is great, right?

the reality is far less glamorous. First and foremost, let’s once again return
to the purpose of blockchain as envisaged by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) –
control. This and only this lies at the base of any interest in crypto. It
follows that any blockchain system green-lit by the CCP will be centralized and
profoundly so. Doubtless, a veneer of independence may be touted but the belief
that the ruling party would simply step aside because blockchain will be good
for the economy is so naïve as to verge on foolish.

The Beijing
model is of blockchain as an additive tool of authoritarian control. As an
investor, this fundamentally undermines the value proposition seemingly
afforded by the rollout of blockchain in China.

Investors face
the reality of being entirely outside looking in with few if any avenues for
good, reliable information. This opacity applies equally for domestic investors
unless, of course, they have high-level ties to the party.  In practice, this means that picking a winner
is all but impossible. The fundamentals of a chain are entirely irrelevant to whether
or not it will be utilized by the CCP. Comparing NEO’s node network or Dapp
ecosystem to Tron or Ontology etc. is a fruitless exercise…..fundamentals will
not be the deciding factor of whether or not a home-grown project receives
state backing.

To be clear,
those that do gain state endorsement will almost certainly see a run-up in
valuation but you as an investor will in no way be privy to that process. ‘Sources
say’ reports from the crypto media are entirely worthless in this regard – they
are based on hearsay and all but certainly mere speculative nonsense. You will
know when the CCP wants you to know.

Of course, short-term speculation on state intentions do indeed provide opportunities.  It’s not unreasonable to assume that local high-profile projects will attract speculative investments as the market attempts to ‘pick the winners’. With this in mind, I personally hold small positions in both NEO and Ontology. However, these are not decade-spanning investments. I intend to scale out if and when given the opportunity to do so.  

Regardless of current profile, once the market in general catches on that blockchain will be utilized as a tool of state repression and little more most domestic chains will become far less appealing through the simple act of comparison with their decentralized peers. Certainly, some chains will become attractive as they gifted oversight over certain areas of the economy such as maintaining medical records, etc. but ascertaining which projects will end up in such positions is not simply the outcome of a reasoned assessment of project fundamentals and market need – it is at the whim of the party.

Sure, a few
of the chosen will accrue long-term value assuming they tow the line but that
will be a state decision the market will have no say-in whatsoever. State
monopolies can be immensely valuable, but retail investors rarely reap the
rewards they offer. This is simply not a game worth playing in the long-run.

Over the
coming years – much better opportunities will likely be found in crypto
projects that operate without direct government control and supervision.

Thanks for listening.

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