I first experience with Garmin was probably with my first job out of college. I went on a business trip, had to rent a car and noticed this big bulky looking portable screen. I recognized the name “Garmin” right away due to my venture into becoming rich through the stock market, specifically through tech stocks (no, I’m not rich yet). And so I was eager to test it out. I remember the map on the screen being very crisp and this dot moving along a green road and every turn I made, the street would reappear on the screen. It was a pretty cool device. That was probably my first and last time using a Garmin as in the years that would eventually come, I would have no need for the device. To be honest, I completely forgot about Garmin until eight months ago, when I questioned why/how were they still in business.
Garmin, the maker of full-featured GPS navigation systems that take the doubt out of driving as you make your commute or vacation. However, with the introduction of smart phones and navigation apps, I was sure Garmin was going out of business. But just like Madonna, who has been in the business for almost 30 years mastered the art of reinventing herself. And that’s exactly what Garmin did. Garmin got into the activity tracking and smartwatch business.
And when they crushed earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018, despite the stock at the time rising more than 15%, the charts were suggesting there was more room to grow…by a lot.
However, there were a couple of speed bumps in the way in the form of daily supply zones. Since that time price did react to the first one in April and pulled back about $8.
But this is a company that can’t be stopped at the moment. On Wednesday, Garmin reported third quarter earnings. Not only did the company smash earnings estimates again, but raised their full year guidance.
Staying true to their core competencies, Garmin has been working in the lab on a product for about 10 years that’s going to compliment the personal air vehicles era called Autoland. Autoland is the first soon-to-be certified automatic landing system that will control and land a plane, by itself, in the event of an emergency. I know, we don’t even have mass self-driving cars yet, so their first market for this product will be commercial aircraft market.
“The technology will translate across a lot of areas of aviation,” Straub said. “It will be interesting to see how it responds to the nascent urban air mobility environment, where there’s electric vertical takeoff and landing and where autonomy is a big part of what they want to do.”
Pemble said Garmin always has viewed the company in the long term and envisions its autonomous technologies in many segments, such as commercial, the government and the military — markets where Garmin already has traction.
“What we’ve done all throughout our history is approach an opportunity step by step, proving our capability and collecting wins, while building upon those successes,” Pemble said.
I was one who doubted Garmin with the invention of Smart Phones, but now I realize I can never count out Garmin due to their DNA, which is the idea of persistence. The chart suggests the next target is the daily supply at $103.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Please click the link below to listen to the 60th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto.’ These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Consider dropping a like and or a review on iTunes or Podbean if you enjoy the podcast. Comments and critiques welcome.
Welcome to Two Minute Crypto, today’s episode addresses the financial elephant in the crypto room – gains. Let’s be blunt – 90% of people who first come to crypto do so because of the lure of monetary gain. Sure, some folks find their way to the space because of a prior interest in Libertarianism, financial systems, tech or the nebulas intersection of all three. This path, however, is the exception to the ‘looking for sick gainz’ entry point.
Blockchain has become popular precisely because it has been proven to offer spectacular returns on investment over time or more accurately investment in Bitcoin has offered stupendous returns over the long-term. Year after year it has printed higher highs and higher lows. A popular meme for BTC is ‘Number go up.’ Number go up is powerful juju. Naturally, investors have been attracted by the allure of huge gains.
Those profits remain a possibility but anyone who has spent more than a few months engaged with crypto can attest to the very real downsides that prevail throughout the crypto market. If your approach to the space is to seek out hidden gems and the like, in truth, you are much more likely to lose money than make it. Unfortunately, far too many investors glance at the current price of Bitcoin and come to the entirely mistaken conclusion that value can only be found elsewhere leading to a focus on Alts in all their shiny glory. In fact, BTC has out-performed all other cryptos through time if you measure their performance over a multi-year horizon. A belief that BTC has topped out is simply a reflection of a very surface understanding of the disruptive potential of Bitcoin.
The likelihood of losing money also applies to the large-cap projects – unless you are willing to hold for years.
And this is the key point – there are no reliably sick gainz in crypto unless you are willing to weather the storm of crypto volatility and hold for the long-term. Long term means many years – not one, two or even five but closer to a decade and beyond. This market is plagued by short-term perspectives, hyperbole, and flat-out lies. It’s all going to take time and a lot of it. Sure, you might be lucky and pick a winner that increases 800% in two weeks but you can pursue such luck just as efficiently at a casino or the racecourse. If you are serious about building wealth through crypto investing -shed the rose-tinted glasses -take your time, do your research, make your investments and let them play out for a decade or so.
After watching the financial news yesterday, I just realized Beyond Meat and Grubhub have a lot in common. Both are in the food industry, both are in burgeoning markets, both had “first to market” head starts over the competition and both companies saw their stock price rise like a Tesla rocket and…well read the rest of the post.
Convenience, accessibility and just pure laziness are major factors driving the global online on-demand food delivery services market.
GrubHub was at once upon a time the world’s leading online and mobile food ordering company. Despite competition from the likes of Uber, DoorDash, Postmates, Square and Amazon, GrubHub controlled 50% of the U.S. food delivery market just under two years ago.
The way the business model works is restaurants do not have to pay anything up-front or any subscription fees, just a commission fee for every order the platform generates.
However, the valuation was crazy. Grubhub was a first to market mover and shares of Grubhub returned 5X from 2016 to 2018 and in 2018 even went as high as $140. The valuation got out of hand. At one point, the P/E was over 80.
But then the competition started coming and their market share went from 50% to 34%, quick fast. So order to stay ahead of the competition, Grubhub grew in other cities, which meant increasing their customer acquisition cost, which meant lower margins. While that was happening, many of Grubhub’s critical metrics like initial diner spend and peak diner spend were all decreasing because customers were using the services of the competition as well. Wall Street started to smell the blood.
Jim Chanos is an American investment manager and currently serves as president and founder of Kynikos Associates, a New York City registered investment advisor who is focused on short selling said Grubhub was a short just last month.
“Right now, GrubHub is making almost no money per order — it’s something like 15 cents,” Chanos said. “There’s just no margin in this business.”
“We believe that this pressure is occurring at both ends of the spectrum for the delivery companies,” Chanos said. “Not only are we seeing pressure on the labor side with the California law, we believe that the labor arbitrage — calling these guys contractors — works in insidious ways.
Chanos said that the company can’t afford to be as aggressive as Uber, which has its own food delivery service Uber Eats, because it doesn’t have the “financial wherewithal.” Competing with Uber, Chanos said, is like being “locked in a cage with a psychopath with an ax.”
And while there’s competition, Chanos said growth in the restaurant business itself has been stagnant.
“The restaurant business is a tough business,” he said. “Even if this all works, and all four of these delivery companies grow to 20 or 25% of all meals, you are growing into a no growth business.”
Yesterday, GrubHub short-sellers made $504 million when shares of the company fell 42% after announcing their third-quarter earnings according to data from financial-analytics provider S3 Partners.
GrubHub received five downgrades, including double downgrades from both Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Oppenheimer following its disappointing third-quarter results.
The food delivery company missed on revenue and posted a fourth-quarter forecast well below Wall Street’s expectations and received five downgrades, including double downgrades from both Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Oppenheimer.
I don’t know where the bottom is, although there is some demand on a smaller timeframe at $30. However, this is a no touch stock in my opinion.
Beyond Meat priced its initial public offering at $25 and now the stock is up more than 200% in less than a week. Beyond Meat, a maker of plant-based meat products is the new IT THING on Wall Street and sold at a supermarket and restaurant near you.
Beyond Meat is also trailblazing a new secular movement away from animal protein.
So yes, although plant-based meats in the U.S. rose 23% last year, it still represents only 1% of the total meat sales in the US. So yes, because Beyond Meat controlling about 10% of the plant based meat market in 2018, what you have is FOMO in the stock price.
But Beyond Meat is beyond over-valued. For example, with $80 million in sales last year, you get a sales to price ratio of 44 vs. Hormel Foods and Conagra with a sales to price ratio of 2.3 and 1.6, respectively.
Beyond Meat priced its initial public offering at $25 and skyrocket 800% in less than four months. Beyond Meat, a maker of plant-based meat controls about 10% of the plant based meat market. And because they have achieved “first to market” status, they are the new IT THING on Wall Street.
Beyond Meat is also trailblazing a new secular movement away from animal protein. Although plant-based meats in the U.S. rose 23% last year, it still represents only 1% of the total meat sales in the US, with Beyond Meat controlling about 10% of the plant based meat market in 2018.
But there valuation is beyond ridiculous. Their valuation was at one point higher than roughly 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 index. For example, with $80 million in sales last year, you get a sales to price ratio of 44 vs. Hormel Foods and Conagra with a sales to price ratio of 2.3 and 1.6, respectively.
But now the competition is coming.
Kellogg (K) introduced “Incogmeato,” which is a plant-based meat alternative made from non-GMO soy. Kellogg’s plant-based burger patties, Chik’n tenders, and Chik’n nuggets which go on sale in early 2020.
Kroger said they will sell a new line of branded plant-based burgers, other meatless products like dips, pasta sauces and cookie dough in the coming months under their Simple Truth Plant Based label.
Hormel Foods once a piece of the action too and announced its plant-based meat substitute called “Happy Little Plants” is available at select retailers.
Then there is Impossible Foods which launched the Impossible Burger through Burger King in August and now have product along Beyond Burger on the shelves in supermarkets.
Yesterday, Beyond Meat announced third quarter earnings.
Beyond Meat, which has a market value of about $6.4 billion, on Monday topped analysts’ expectations for its fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue. The company reported earnings of 6 cents on revenue of $92 million, while analysts forecast earnings of 3 cents on revenue of $82.2 million, according to Refinitiv. Beyond Meat saw sales grow across both its grocery and restaurant divisions, as its meatless products drew in more customers and kept existing customers coming back.
“Despite solid results the likelihood of early stage investors cashing out on a stock which is still up about 4x since its IPO, remains a drag in coming trading sessions,” said Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer in a note to clients Tuesday.
Tuesday is the first time since the IPO that insiders can sell the stock, which could cause short-term pressure, analysts said. Roughly 75% to 80% of the outstanding stock is available to trade after the lockup expiration.
So is the weekly demand at $81 the time to get in, the chart suggests so, but I think this stock is a no touch as well.
As you can see, Grubhub and Beyond Meat are almost like twins. The question now becomes can both companies remain twins in the form of a comeback story?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
First of all I will explain what Crypto Arbitrage is. Crypto Arbitrage is making a high profit from a cryptocurrency and ow is this profit made, it is made from buying a cryptocurrency from one exchanger with a lower price and selling it on another cryptocurrency exchanger on a higher price. So in this situation you are making profit from both exchangers that is what we called Crypto Arbitrage.
There are some steps to check before proceeding on a Crypto Arbitrage.
To first start with it you have to first check the percentage difference on both of the exchanger thus is the on exchanger you are buying, you have to check the lowest bid and the exchanger you are selling you have to check the highest bid to make sure if when you buy the cryptocurrency and you sell it on exchanger 2 you will make a profit from it. Also you have to know that both exchanger allows you to make a withdraw and a deposit of that cryptocurrency you are buying and deposting and again check the fees on both exchangers to be sure if it is worth it to make this arbitration. There are alot of swings that is drops of the price on the crypto market so you have to know that the time frame you will make your deposit to sell it there wont be any swing on the market price so that you can make back a profit on the cryptocurrency.
In everything there are Advantages and Disadvantages
Some of the Advantages of Crypto Arbitrage is you can make instant profit from it, there is a high degree of getting more profits. The Disadvantage of Crypto Arbitrage is there is also a high risk of losing profit if the crypto market swings alot.
To my understand, I dont think Crypto Arbitrage is a way one can make money fast.
Tech Week is not just a large-scale conference, but a
large educational hub on digital technologies for business, where
people communicate, get inspired and find ready-made solutions for
business.4 days, 200 speakers, 2000 participants.
Senator, ambassadors, heads of Italian industry and top journalists have gathered to open the official mission of Liberland in Rome. Based in the Vatican, it will serve as base for Liberland activities in Italy and beyond.
Valero Energy Corporation
operates as an independent petroleum refining and ethanol producing company in
the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. The
company is involved in oil and gas refining, marketing, and bulk selling activities.
It produces conventional and premium gasolines, diesel fuels and other distillates.
This past week, Valero
Energy Corp. beat analysts’ expectations in the third quarter, reporting a
profit of $609 million, or $1.48 per share.
It was a better-than-expected quarter despite making $250 million less
in profit than the company reported during the same period last year, when the
company reported $856 million in profit, or $2.01 per share.
Valero also makes ethanol. Ethanol is made from corn and almost 50% of corn
crop in the US is used to make ethanol.
However, this past Spring into Summer the Midwest was hit with massive
flooding, which lead to record slow planting season for corn. The end result was corn prices were high, which
is an input cost for Valero, which lead to low margins.
Valero can utilize its midstream network to process cheaper crude oils. However, the fall in spreads between discounted (medium or heavy) crudes and Brent affected the company’s refining earnings. The Brent-WTI, Brent-LLS (Louisiana Light Sweet), Brent-ANS (Alaskan North Sweet), Brent-Maya, and Brent-ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index) spreads narrowed YoY in the third quarter.
The Brent-ANS spread fell from $0.4 per barrel in the third quarter of 2018 to -$0.9 per barrel in the third quarter of 2019. The Brent-Maya spread also narrowed from $9.7 per barrel to $5.4 per barrel. Similarly, the Brent-ASCI spread fell from $5.1 per barrel in the third quarter of 2018 to $3.2 per barrel in the third quarter of 2019. The most important of all, Brent-WTI, fell from $6.2 per barrel in the third quarter of 2018 to $5.6 per barrel in the third quarter of 2019.
Further, in the third quarter, gasoline cracks declined in the US Gulf Coast, US Midcontinent, and North Atlantic. However, the crack rose in the US West Coast. Diesel cracks also put up a mixed trend.
The crack spread is the one parameter that determines a refiner’s earnings. The crack spread entails the cost of the raw material input, oil and what the finished product, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel can be sold for.
Since there are 42
gallons of oil in a barrel, you can multiply this ratio by 42 to get the actual
profit margin per unit. At today’s ratio of .0295, multiplying by 42 gives us
1.24. That means a profit margin of 24% for every gallon of crude oil refined into gasoline.
But during the earnings call, Valero forecasted favorable market conditions for the current quarter, based on improved gasoline and distillate cracks from the lower levels and sour crude weakness resulting from the IMO low-sulfur fuel oil mandate, which goes into effect on January 1, 2020. And this is why Valero broke out after consolidating for the past 10 months.
Thus, the chart suggests there is room for price to run up to $108, which would represent another 9% increase in price.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Well it’s been quite a week for crypto! After too many months of no significant action, things are (finally) starting to come to a head. I’ll briefly discuss the highlights by fitting them in under the simple headings of “Bitcoin” and “Altcoins”.
Bitcoin
The recent Bitcoin price dip to below $7500 was not a surprise. I, like many other analysts, both expected it and welcomed it as a buying opportunity. Most of us (myself included) expected it to dip further. Indeed, I had yet to have a buy order fill (silly me). What we didn’t expect was a rapid BTC rise. Twice.
That the reason for those rises is still open to debate, indicates that (as usual) nobody REALLY knows the real reason behind them. Bullish sentiment appears to be partly from short squeezes, but mainly from FOMO about pro-blockchain comments made by Chinese president Xi Jinping. No doubt the full story is more complex than that, but FOMO never bothers with getting all the facts.
Despite the rapid rise, a little messing around on my charts reveals that BTC MAY still be in a descending channel.
I emphasise that this is just a theory, but I wouldn’t rule it out. My gut feel (which is often wrong when it comes to crypto) suggests that prices may yet again dip lower in the channel. I still believe that BTC has to reach the vicinity of its long-term trendline (approximate position indicated below) before it can begin to climb properly. Granted: the exact position of that trendline is hardly cast in stone.
The massive volume increase which followed the Bitcoin price rise is indicative of just how much (dumb) money is just waiting in the wings – waiting for some sort of confirmation that bitcoin is not going
to crash to zero before it decides to invest.
Altcoins
I have never been impressed by the altcoin bashing that has been so prevalent ever since the Bitcoin Maximalists greatly and suddenly multiplied in number starting in mid-2018. I consider altcoin bashing to be rather immature and short-sighted. As sure as my name is Bit Brain, most of the altcoin bashers will flip and become some of the biggest pro-altcoin campaigners when altcoin season returns.
Altcoin season has threatened to return on several occasions, though we have no positive confirmation of that happening yet. Of course there will always be isolated instances, such as Chainlink which is doing
very well at the moment. I can only shake my head in dismay as I see the Chainlink supporters declare their coin to be bulletproof and capable of decimating all the others. Guys – Chainlink is good, but it REALLY isn’t
anything super-special!
Before I get too far off-topic, I think that altcoin season WILL return very shortly, and I strongly suggest (as I have been doing for over a year now!) that investors stock up on all the ridiculously, laughably, insanely, insert-superlative-herely cheap altcoins that are currently available.
This last year has given us considerable new insight into the possible long-term nature of BTC dominance (seen below). It appears that BTC dominance will probably cease to increase now, freeing up a lot of money to be invested in altcoins.
From https://www.coingecko.com/en/global_charts; modified by Bit Brain
The SHITPERP Index (that’s a real thing, I promise) which tracks the performance of selected altcoins is indicating the same thing. It’s chart shows a double-bottom, indicative of a transition from losing value to gaining value.
President Xi Jinping’s comments (referenced earlier) seem to be having a direct effect on Chinese coins. I have noticed my beloved NEO doing exceptionally well ever since BTC took-off this weekend. The same applies to some of my other Chinese coins such as Ontology (ONT) and THEKEY (TKY). I have been saying for a LONG time that Chinese altcoins is where the smart crypto money should be. I’m sticking to that.
China definitely seems to be looking more blockchain friendly than both the US and the EU at the moment. Combined with their rise to global economic and military dominance (sorry USA, that is happening), I’m feeling VERY good about my Chinese altcoin investments.
BUT:
Note that Xi Jinping is talking about BLOCKCHAINS, not cryptocurrencies! I honestly think that the Chinese crypto hype is premature. Sure, it’s a GREAT idea to get in very early at ultra-low prices, but I don’t think that the current FOMO wave is thinking along those lines; they’re just thinking “China” = “pro-crypto” = “Chinese crypto to the Moon”; which is not necessarily the case. Chinese authorities appear to want blockchain tech that they can control, that’s NOT crypto!
It is however true that Xi Jinping is a visionary and that he knows the importance of not getting left behind in the blockchain race. In the long-run I believe that China will come around to the realisation that decentralised blockchains are the ones that work best and that centralised ones (like many reserve banks are currently investigating, or like Zuckerberg’s shitcoin extraordinaire) are doomed to fail thanks to the transparency and forced accountability that blockchains offer. It’s worth remembering that the Chinese government has been trialling THEKEY for several months already. I also remind you that Da Hongfei got WAY ahead of the game and helped China develop Chinese blockchain regulations about two years ago – regulations he built NEO (and by extension, Ontology too) around…
Looking to the future of alts, my crypto investing suggestions remain unchanged:
1) Good Chinese coins (NEO is still by far the best example, but others (e.g. VeChain) – are also worthy of consideration)
2) Good Exchange coins (My best bets are: Binance (BNB), KuCoin (KCS) and Nash Exchange (NEX) – all of which I have referral links to in my signature block)
3) Good Platform coins (you guessed it: NEO again! Other coins that I would recommend in this category are EOS, Ether (ETH), Ontology (ONT), Tron (TRX) and Holochain (HOT).
4) Other coins which have good use cases, especially the neglected ones which have survived the extremely harsh altcoin winter. Yes, I STILL love CargoX (CXO) (check them out at www.cargox.io and tell me what’s NOT to like!), but there are many others such as Kyber (KNC), Enjin coin (ENJ), UTrust (UTK), TenX (PAY), Worldwide Asset Exchange (WAX), OmiseGo (OMG) – too many to list. Just remember: “Favourite” does not equal “Good”!
Final Word
To my fellow NEO investors, it’s good to see NEO getting some LONG overdue attention, but be prepared for the FOMO-turns-to-FUD price drops which are sure to come. Like most good investments, NEO’s strength will lie in its long-term performance.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
Featured image in the public domain. Sourced from https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-over-9000
All uncaptioned charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful”
Bitcoin fan and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said today at a Twitter media event in New York City. He said “hell no” when asked if he would join the Libra Association.
He then went on to explain that the Facebook-created stablecoin didn’t need to be a cryptocurrency to pull off its broader goals of democratizing the financial system.
“I don’t know if it’s a gimmick,” said Dorsey “but a cryptocurrency wasn’t necessary to make that work”
“It’s not an internet open standard that was born on the internet,”
“It was born out of a company’s intention, and it’s not consistent with what I personally believe and what I want our company to stand for.”
Jack is the CEO of not only Twitter, but Square as well. Square, Inc. provides payment and point-of-sale solutions in the United States and internationally. The company’s commerce ecosystem includes point-of-sale software and hardware that enables sellers to turn mobile and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions.
I have come to like Square over the last two years, not because I’m a customer, but because I see them as a Disruptor. I’m bias to Square because of their first to market initiatives into Cryptocurrencies. Back in April of 2018, Square allowed customers buy and sell bitcoins via its Cash App in all 50 U.S. states.
Then in March Square announced Square Crypto. Square Crypto’s goal is to help improve the Bitcoin ecosystem. Team members include: Valentine Wallace joins from Lightning Labs, Jeffrey Czyz from Google, and Arik Sozman from Facebook, where he was building the Calibra wallet for Facebook’s blockchain project, Libra and Matt Corallo, co-founder of Blockstream.
But is not just the crypto space that Square is focused on. Over the next few weeks, Square will start allowing customers to buy and sells stocks for free on its cash payments app. And yesterday Square announced the rollout of fractional stock trading services on its Cash App. As an example, this means you can buy just a fraction of one Amazon stock vs. dishing out over $1700 / share.
So where is the price of Square heading next, the last several weeks, price has been sideways, but if price gets down to the weekly demand at $46, the chart suggests to buy and go long.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Now that got our collective attention, didn’t it? China seems to have put a rocket under crypto – let’s see whether this massive price surge has any staying power. Closing above the 200-day moving average would seem to suggest so.
Lots to share this week – I could have tagged the majority of this recap ‘highly recommended’ from reflections on censorship resistance to a discussion of Bitcoin Maximalism and a whole lot in between.
Perhaps it’s worth restating that the goal of this series is to highlight the developments and narratives that comprise this space. News per se is not the focus but rather broader trends, tech, debates, and discussions.
Picks of the Week
Charles Hoskinson on crypto is a rabbit hole you will benefit from going down. This analysis of Bakkt’s underwhelming performance to date is also well worth checking out as is this article on the true value of crypto.
Once again, I learned a lot this week in crypto. As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
