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Ag Analysis Report – 8/9/19…Is Corn Prices Going Lower???

August 10, 2019 Published by

The planting season in 2019 was historically slow due to wet weather several months ago. The storms left millions of acres unseeded and put corn crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage.  For example, in May, a farmer in Indiana said his corn crop was only 6% planted at the time, but this was the case in most of the Midwestern states as many farmers experienced record flooding across the central United States.

Image result for corn and flooding

The latest AccuWeather 2019 crop production analysis predicts a significant decline from last year’s corn and soybean yield, as well as a noticeable variation from the July U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.

AccuWeather analysts predict the 2019 corn yield will be 13.07 billion bushels, a decline of 9.3% from 2018 and 5.8% lower than the latest USDA figures. It would be the lowest yield since 2012, a year of a significant drought that saw final corn production numbers plummet to 10.76 billion bushels.

Source

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) providing comprehensive forecast of supply and demand for major crops (global and United States) and livestock (U.S. only).  On Monday they report their numbers for corn.

I have no idea what the crop yield is going to be when the report is issued on Monday. Big here is a bigger picture of the corn futures on the weekly chart.

So I will repeat, I have no idea what the results are going to be on Monday, but based on the daily chart, the chart suggests, the results will surprise on the upside, pushing prices down, due to price entering a daily supply as I finish this post.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Why to Use Land Trusts to Transfer Your Property to an LLC

August 9, 2019 Published by

It’s amazing how many tools there are at our disposal when it comes to real estate investing.  I’d like to talk about one that can come in handy when dealing with the issue of getting loans, but wanting to have your property in an LLC.

Note: this is not legal advice, please check with your attorney when making any such transactions.

Get the Loan – Then transfer into LLC by way of Land Trust

Using a land trust is always a good idea, regardless.  It provides anonymity for the owner which protects you because you can’t get sued if it cannot be proven you own the property.

Additionally, when a title is transferred to a land trust it doesn’t trigger the due on sale clause that is part of a traditional mortgage. 

Generally when title changes hands it triggers the loan to be paid in full.

Now push it to the LLC

Once the property is in your land trust you can then transfer the title to your LLC.  Then make sure your LLC has an operating agreement in place to manage that property within the trust. 

Basically this gives us a way to take a property that we buy in our own names, usually in order to qualify for a traditional mortgage, and move it into our LLC.

Remember – owning investment properties in your own name is a liability risk.  Yes, insurance is great but only goes so far.  Having properties in entities like land trusts and LLCs provides protection for you and the assets you’ve worked so hard to accumulate.

If you are just getting started in real estate investing then check out the ScaredyCatGuide to Investing in Rental Properties Video Tutorial

 

 

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector – Part 2

August 9, 2019 Published by

I wanted to give an update on one of my favorite plays in the Marijuana space.  I talked about Innovative Industrial Properties three months ago,

Innovative Industrial Properties…An Interesting Play In The Marijuana Sector

but a lot has happen since then.   Again, Innovative Industrial is a marijuana-based REIT that acquires cannabis-related properties. Innovative Industrial went public in 2016.  The company has made eight quarterly dividend payments since July 2017, with three separate $0.10/quarter increases over that span.  And on July 15th, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, representing an increase of 33% from the previous quarter.

But also In July, the company issued 1,495,000 shares of common stock.  Typically when a company issues more stock, where they dilute the earnings/share which is frown upon on Wall Street.  This is probably why the stock fell in mid-July.

Now in my eyes, they raised more cash to buy more properties…which is a good thing.  In recent months, the company has acquired the following properties: six in California, two in Pennsylvania, two in Michigan and one each in Ohio, Nevada and Massachusetts.  But get this, all the properties have occupants that have signed on to long-term leases.

There reason why I love Innovative Industrial Properties so much is because you have an opportunity to get onboard a growing company, in one of the hottest growing secular trends, that’s paying shareholders dividends that grow almost every quarter. Why are dividends such a big due, look at the returns of the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends.

Source

I’m personally looking to buy if price gets to the $64 level, so if price breaches the daily demand at $95 price has a shot of getting through the mess in white and to the $64 level. 

This level also represent a fib retracement of 61.8%, for all the folks out there that use fibonacci in their trading.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

FTM technical analysis

August 9, 2019 Published by

FTM seen from the 1D temporary we can see how the candlestick structure looks bearish, the previous candlestick closing below the ITZ point (important trading area) has caused bears to gain ground and we see it reflected in the current candlestick with its bearish momentum, the 1D demand zone located at 0.01802 does not seem to support the price for long, does not seem a very strong support, the major setup that shows FTM is a descending wedge so we should expect the price to form a new LL in or near the diagonal support of the figure, in the chart above I have drawn the possible trajectory that should follow the price in its path.

FTM seen from the temporality of 4H we can observe more closely the current movement of the candles, as we mentioned earlier, the price has been pushed violently down after the support drawn on the chart was broken by a horizontal blue color located at 0.02027, from here we should continue to see the price fall until we find the support of the larger figure, I have drawn the diagonal fall as resistance of the downward wedge, we see in the chart in blue.

In conclusion, when the price draws us a C point in the price range of 0.13 – 0.12 will be our best entry opportunity, the price should find strong demand that drives the price towards our target located in the price range of 0.02426 – 0.02554, we can make very good gains with this trade, however, I recommend as always to be attentive to the movement of candles in 1D and wait for the price to reach us.

As I always say, you have to be aware of the movement, invalidations can occur, there is no 100% reliable analysis, take your own precautions when trading.

You can follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/armijogarcia

Unusual Options Activity In Apple – Part 2

August 9, 2019 Published by

Three days ago, I talked about unusual options activity in Apple

Unusual Options Activity In Apple

After earnings, the stock price went from $220 to under $190, which represented a 14% drop. Since any stocks’ move is comprised roughly 49% of the broader market move and 31% of the stock’s sector move reason for the Apple’s drop was the DOW’s 800 point move to the downside. Nevertheless, algos and hedge fund managers saw price hitting the 200 moving average and that’s when price caught the bids. That’s also when the Smart Money bought an astounding 48,000 call options with a strike price at $200 that expire today.

Now the price at which those options as I write this post are sitting at $.70 or $70 per contract,

but prior to the Market close yesterday those contracts were at $300 / contract.

This represents a return of 254% for the Smart Money. Why do I say they made a profit, because they sold out of their positions yesterday? How do I know this, because the the 48,000 contracts, the volume in this case on Tues, would of shown up as open interest on Wednesday. Open interest indicates the total number of option contracts that are currently open or held.  Unlike options trading volume, open interest is not updated during the trading day. So the Smart Money sold their options between Wednesday and Thursday, because the open interest going into the trading day Friday only shows a bit over 1500 contracts.

Another example of why I only follow the Smart Money…plain and simple, they have information that simple isn’t accessible to anyone else.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Currency Analysis Report 8/9/19 – The Kiwi Got Squashed

August 9, 2019 Published by

The New Zealand dollar is known in the forex world after its national icon, the flightless bird called the Kiwi, which is also pictured on the country’s $1 coin.

Image result for new zealand $1 coin

The Kiwi remains under pressure as lingering U.S.-China trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut interests rate twice this year and Bearish traders were betting on another ¼ point cut this earlier this week. But the news that came out this week, even shock the Bears.

The New Zealand Dollar was crushed Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed its interest rate further than markets expected and gave guidance that was more ‘dovish’ than anticipated, but analysts say there’s more losses ahead because the bank is likely to cut again before long.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% Wednesday when financial markets had looked for only a 25 basis point reduction, taking the market by surprise and prompting traders to dump the Kiwi currency by the bucketload.

Image result for Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr hinted at further easing by any means necessary in order to hit their inflation rate targets.   Based on where I think the global economy is headed over the coming 12-24 months, I’m personally bearish as well on the Kiwi.

On the monthly chart, there is a nice head and shoulder pattern.

So based on a measured move, price could go sub .5000, which is an extreme.

So I will settle for distance that is half the measured move, but at the moment, on a smaller time frame, I can find a level to enter to go short.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Crypto Contest August 9: Algorand

August 9, 2019 Published by

Algorand (Binance: ALGOBTC) has broken out of the triangle pattern in the four-hour chart.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Elliott Wave Analysis

In Elliott Wave terms, Algorand began a wave one advance on August 1. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on August 2, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on August 8. If this wave count is correct, Algorand should be heading next towards the August 2 peak in the red wave three.

(Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com (log scale))

Funnymentals

Algorand is a public, permissionless, pure proof of stake blockchain that ensures full participation, protection and speed within a truly decentralized network. Boxmining covered the project earlier this week.

(Sources: Algorand and YouTube)

How can I vote? Where is the contest?

You can vote by following this link.

Gasoline Analysis Report 8/9/19 – More Declines To Come

August 9, 2019 Published by

The last time I posted about gasoline was in late June,

Gasoline Analysis Report 6/27/19 – Will Prices Continue To Rise???

The refinery was the largest and oldest on the East Coast went up in flames, removing 25% of the refining capacity in the Northeast in the process.

The chart suggests if gasoline can rise a bit higher to short (due to gasoline supply concern) price at the daily supply at $2.015. 

In the article I talked indirectly about gasoline being a derivative of oil, which means that if oil rises/falls, gasoline will follow suit.

Retail gasoline prices tend to rise in the spring and peak in the Summer when people drive more frequently.  So the set-up had the seasonality going for it as well since the accident was a month past Memorial Day.

Unleaded Gasoline miNY Futures (QU) Seasonal Chart

Needless to say price hit the daily supply at $2.015 and fell.

According to AAA, the national average is about $2.69 per gallon now, down from a couple of cents from last week.  I anticipate retail gasoline prices continue to decline in the coming months.   The  gasoline futures’ chart suggests price is heading down to $1.4500

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Looking For a Cryptocurrency to Buy – Coming Up Empty

August 8, 2019 Published by

Just spent time scanning through the charts looking for a top 50 coin to buy on a trade.  Struggled to find anything that was giving me a buy single – UGH.

Indecision and selling pressure

Bitcoin has pushed higher of late and the alts have not followed at all.  However, I’m not buying bitcoin after it ripped 2,000 points the past week.

I do like the consolidation it is doing now, as if it actually wants to leg up again.   I’ll believe it when I see it and for now will just hold my long-term bag.   I buy coin on pullbacks for the most part.

LTC and ETH – nothing says buy at the moment

As you can see litecoin looks rather indecisive after retreating from that head and shoulders topping pattern.  I like that it is atleast hanging on here in the middle of the range as that is less bearish, but price action certainly isn’t bullish.

Ethereum looks like it just failed at the 230 level again so not a time to get long.  Ideally we see some unexpected buying and it pushes through that level, but that is just a gamble.

And I could continue on.  EOS doesn’t look much different nor many other coins.  There is some strength here and there, such as BNB past couple days, but that trade entry is long gone.

I’m sitting on my long-term bag with my active trading capital idle on the sidelines for now.

Stay patience my friends!

 

Dr. Copper Approaching A “The Line In The Sand” Level

August 8, 2019 Published by

The only channel I seldom have on is either CNBC or Bloomberg.  While the financial talking heads are talking about the 800 point decline in the DOW, the 10 yr and 30 yr interest rate hitting multi-year lows, the VIX and the impending currency war, nobody is talking about Dr. Copper.

The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for the copper’s ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Rising copper prices imply demand or a growing global economy and declining copper prices imply lack of demand or a slowing global economy.

The focus is increasingly on the damage caused by the havoc of a trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. The broad applications for copper mean it’s particularly vulnerable to the synchronized tailspin being seen in everything from car-making and earth-moving equipment to commercial property and advanced electronic components.

“What the hard data is telling us is that end-use demand is slow and in many places getting kicked quite hard,” Oliver Nugent, a metals strategist at Citigroup Inc., said by phone from London. “China’s commodity-intensive economy is as weak as it’s been in recent history.”

Source

From a macro perspective, copper stalled out in Jan of 2018 and when trade tariff became a huge topic of discussion, the momentum in copper turned which was confirmed by the trendline break.

Fast forward almost two years later and trade talk is still being discussed and in recent days it’s a matter of who has the bigger stick. However, what’s different today is Germany is pretty much in a recession, global interest rates are at multi year lows and the US just cut rates for the first time in 10 years. Thus, copper is at a level that I’m deeming, “the line in the sand.”

If copper closes below 2.5000 on the monthly chart, look for copper to make its way down to 2.0000.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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