When you think about Cryptocurrencies, one name immediately comes to mind, Bitcoin. Since the creation of Bitcoin, there has only ever been one cryptocurrency at the top of the market cap rankings…Bitcoin.
When the price of Bitcoin rises, generally you can expect altcoin prices to rise with it. Likewise, when the Bitcoin price drops, altcoins also follow. And sometimes when Bitcoin is rising, the altcoins are declining due to cash moving from the altcoins to Bitcoin and vice versa.
Bitcoin dominance is used to measure the percentage of the cryptocurrency market that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Thus, it’s very easy to determine the relative strength of Bitcoin at any point. Not the case for the altcoins…until now. I have taken the more popular altcoins and determined their relative strength, relative to Bitcoin using just moving average.
Binance
EOS
Ethereum
Litecoin
Neo
Steem
Tron
Zcash
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the altcoins relative strength, relative to Bitcoin are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In 2005, Box was founded
and ten short years later, the company went public and now serves 70% of the
Fortune 500 companies. Box began as an enterprise-focused cloud
storage company, but it’s been increasingly building out a platform on top of
its cloud-storage product. I was never
high on the company because one of their biggest competitors is Microsoft
Corp’s OneDrive and SharePoint, who based on their size, sold the same
commodity type storage for cheaper.
Needless to say, earlier this year when they announced fourth quarter earnings, the results were below expectation.
I personally saw further declines and the chart suggested price would head down to the monthly demand at $14.
Box announced their first quarter earnings report. Box’s revenue in the quarter increased 16% from a year earlier, but the lowered their forecast for the rest of the year leading to a sell off in the stock. Needless to say price hit and bounced off the the monthly demand zone at $14. As the zone indicated, there were unfilled buy orders which cause the bounce in price.
So the question at the time became there more unfilled orders at the demand zone or did they get all used up after the bounce in price?
Box isn’t scheduled to announce earnings until late Aug, but their direct competitor Dropbox Inc announce their second quarter earnings this past Thursday. Dropbox reported a slight increase in the number of users who are paying for its file sharing services but they also reported a wider second-quarter net loss. Again, since Box is in the same line of business as Dropbox, Box sold off as well.
So now we can answer the question of were there more unfilled buy orders at the demand zone or did they get all used up after the bounce in price in June? I’m sure there were more unfilled buy orders below the pivot highlight by the purple circle, but the sellers absorbed them all and pushed prices higher.
I expect price to bounce from current levels, but then head lower, eventually to the weekly demand at $10.50.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.
Well it is nice to see a little green out of the alts the past 48 hours, but volume is lacking so it may just be sellers tacking a break as opposed to buyers coming in.
Taking a look at some bigger alts…
Looking at LTC you see volume is lighter than usual and a little bounce should not be of surprise as price had sold off 5 straight days.
I do like that this bounce we create a higher low from that bottom around 80. Either way, nothing too exciting going on.
Ethereum range bound
Ethereum has been bouncing around between 200 and 230 roughly for a little while now. An uptick after touching 200 yesterday is also not much of a surprise, volume is also very light on this up day.
Action is muted
At this point I’m waiting for the alts to do something, the market is rather quiet otherwise.
The new report from digital asset management company Coinshares points to the increasing dominance of institutional investors in Bitcoin. At the same time, retail investment in the sector is dwindling. This could have lasting effects on the way Bitcoin’s price behaves in the future.
According to Coinshares, there is a fundamental difference between the price rise of 2017 and the bull market of 2019. They noted that four factors were responsible for the 2017 Bitcoin price frenzy- a spike in Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’, media attention, rise in a number of tweets related to Bitcoin and the corresponding rally in altcoins. This time, none of these factors are visible in the market.
I talked about the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017 and how Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.
I also talked about the Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds, who are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000.
I also still remember my 11th post ever on Steemit, as it was confirmation that supply and demand works in the Crypto space as well,
Two trillion dollars are on Wall Street, waiting for the pipelines from Wall Street to the Crypto Space to be fully developed. When we talk about Bitcoin hitting $100k even $200k, will it’s going to be the Smart Money’s push into Cryptos that gets price there. Buckle your seat belts, it’s going to be one hell of a ride over the next 5-10 years.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.
Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, intermarket analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. This type of analysis expands on simply looking at each individual market or asset in isolation by also looking at other markets or assets that have a strong relationship to the market or asset being considered.
The US economy is still the largest in the world and the US dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. Over half of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars. Thus, the asset classes relative strength will be compared to the US Dollar.
Bitcoin
30 Yr Bond
Copper
Euro Dollar
Gold
Oil
Soybeans
S&P 500
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the asset classes’ relative strength, relative to the US Dollar are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.
Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated. However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes. However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.
DAX (Germany)
Dow Jones (US)
FTSE 100 (England)
Nasdaq (US)
Nifty 50 (India)
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
Shanghai (China)
Russell 2000 (US)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Tight, tight, tight on the Bitcoin chart (even with yesterday’s drop) -shouldn’t be long before a significant resolution one way or the other. As to the Alts – they’ve been savaged with no sign of recovery on the horizon.
Global markets are looking very shaky with gold, silver, and Bitcoin the beneficiaries. The dollar seems set to run up against most currencies particularly those of developing nations. China essentially devalued the Yuan this week – letting the sub 7 Yuan peg against the dollar finally break. This week once again highlights some of the red-lights flashing throughout the global economy. Could the party go on – could lower interest rates and further money printing – first rescue – then pump global markets -absolutely they could but I’m not betting on it.
Picks of the Week
A chart-storm highlighting the looming dollar run-up against its competitors is fascinating. In a similar vein, the interview with Raoul Pal examining systemic global market risk factors is compelling.
A simple explanation of blockchain – handy to have on hand for the newly curious: https://medium.com/@sidharth_m/beginners-guide-to-blockchain-explaining-it-to-a-5-years-old-772caac6ae97
There’s a lot of smoke around the state of the Chinese economy – the sky isn’t falling but this is perhaps part of the appeal of crypto for Chinese investors? (recommended):
Website / Utility
Starting Sept 9th – a free university-level course on blockchain – 11 units – live sessions – many by Anton Antonopoulos (Note: you have to supply your contact details -including phone number):
That one flew by. Learned a lot – worried a little -such is crypto. As always looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.
For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.
When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully. With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.
Communication Services (XLC)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Energy (XLE)
Financials (XLF)
Health Care (XLV)
Industrials (XLI)
Materials (XLB)
Real Estate (XLRE)
Technology (XLK)
Utilities (XLU)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.
And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.
The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).
AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar
EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar
GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar
NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar
USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)
USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)
USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, Robotina began a wave one advance in July 2018. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished in March this year, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended in June. If this wave count is correct, Robotina should be heading next towards the March peak in the red wave three.
