The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (known commonly as the S&P 500) is an index with 500 of the top companies in the U.S. Stocks. Because the S&P 500 Index represents approximately 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, it’s the bellwether index for the U.S. stock market. In addition, the U.S. stock market is the largest stock market in the world, it’s also the bellweather for equity markets around the world. The S&P 500 is arguably the most important stock market index on the planet.
Because we live in a global economy, the global equity markets interconnected and highly correlated. However, some will outperformance other in the short term and long term. When constructing an equity portfolio, for the best returns one needs to have the ability and the capacity to assess all the major equity markets around to asset allocation purposes. However, the first step is to determine the relative strength of the major equity markets, relative to the bellweather, the S&P 500.
DAX (Germany)
Dow Jones (US)
FTSE 100 (England)
Nasdaq (US)
Nifty 50 (India)
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
Shanghai (China)
Russell 2000 (US)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the world equity markets’ relative strength, relative to the S&P 500 are the following:
Once again, the stars aligned for Bitcoin with the FED clearly capitulating to political pressure and dropping rates and the trade war rhetoric between the US and China once again heating up. With elections looming does a deal seem likely? Of course, careful what you wish for as BTC is still in all probability a risk-on asset – so a global crisis might well see a steep sell-off. My two cents – global uncertainty is bullish for crypto while a full-blown recession would be very bearish at least in the initial phase of an economic turndown.
As to the charts, BTC is attempting to push its head above the parapet but very weak volume remains a considerable concern in the short-term. Nonetheless, recent price action has been bullish.
Leverage trading seems to be shilled everywhere recently – this period of thin volume is the absolute worst time to enter leveraged positions – it’s effectively degenerate gambling. Speaking of degenerates, who asked for 1 second charts on TradingView?
Picks of the Week
This article’s examination of the psychology underlying incentives, co-operation, and the decentralized web is a standout this week with Off the Chain’s interview of Saifedean Ammous also incredibly interesting.
See you all down the crypto rabbit hole before you know it! As always, looking forward to your comments and suggestions.
Note on Sources:
Twitter & Reddit (cryptos current meta-brains) / Medium / Trybe / Hackernoon / Whaleshares / TIMM and so on/ YouTube / various podcasts and whatever else I stumble upon. The aim is a useful weekly aggregator of ideas rather than news. Though I try to keep the sources current – I’ll reference these articles and podcasts etc. as I encounter them – they may have been published just a couple of days ago or in some cases quite a bit earlier.
Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operation, maintenance and asset integrity, and project management services worldwide.
Fluor is not only down 30% in May, but down 50% since the beginning of the year. And since the monthly candle just closed below the 2009 pivot low, the chart suggests price will continue to decline to the monthly demand at $13.
Today, I had a great conversation with some of the folks over at the Steemleo Discord channel where I stated the Markets can be timed.
Fluor Corp. is just one example. The fundamentals would of allowed you to time the down fall in Fluor Corp. from the previous earning announcement in May. On Friday Fluor Corp. announced their second quarter earnings. The company reported a net loss of $554.8 million, or $3.96 a share, from a profit of $114.8 million, or 82 cents a share, from a year ago and missed revenue expectations in the process. During the earnings call, the CFO said cash flow was going to be in the red the rest of the year negative and that they would need to sale off some assets.
Even if you aren’t a fundamentalist…like myself, the charts told you the same thing and suggested more downside. After Fluor Corp announced their earnings, the stock dropped more than 25% to a level not seen since November of 2004. We are talking about level last seen 15 years ago.
So whether you area fundamentalist or a chart technician, both analysis work, however, I just chose to use the charts to time the markets as I think it’s a better leading indicator because the Smart Money also leaves their footprints behind.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
5 consecutive days of green candles already, despite BITCOIN has not increase so much in volume , BTC has broken strongly the Falling Wedge and so, it is going upwards while trying to break another known resistance at 10800 USD right now:
What I can see here is an interesting Flag pattern in formation. Usually this pattern use to provide till 5 rebounds before breaking the upper resistance (a-b-c-d-e) but it is known that also can be broken on the 4th, so at (d).
This is my current scenario: If the upper resistance (red line) is broken powerfully on (d), it would mean that the correction and so the end of the wave II was already done at (c) around 9000 USD… If, by the contrary, BTC finds strong resistance at (d), it would be likely to have another test of the inclined support on (e), ending there the correction…
In a graphical manner, two options, both bullish, of course:
Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.
Central banks continued to load up on gold in the first half, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.
Nations added 374.1 tons in the first six months as Russia and China kept building reserves and Poland made a massive purchase. The trend is expected to continue, with a recent survey of central banks showing 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months.
Central banks around the world have added to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar.
This past Thursday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on his show, Mad Money that he was frustrated about the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and recommended that investors buy into the bull market in gold. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray thinks Jim is right.
Not only has price breached the five year resistance band, but also closed above the big fat round number of $1400. The chart suggests price moves higher to the monthly supply at $1600, with pull backs along the way.
Although Gold has stalled in recent weeks, it’s not time to sell, it’s just basing before price marches higher.
Yes, the US dollar moving higher had something to do with Gold basing, but the real reason is the buyers continue to eat away at the unfilled sell orders just under the weekly supply at $1475.
So those in Gold for the long haul, don’t fret, it’s all part of the impulse move, then correction, just know it’s the long term buyers that are now causing the impulse moves and the sellers and short term buyers causing the correction…1st target remains $1600.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Sector rotation is the action of shifting investment assets from one sector to another to take advantage of cyclical trends in the overall economy in an attempt to beat the market. Sector rotation seeks to capitalize on the theory that not all sectors of the economy perform well at the same time because sectors of the stock market perform differently during the phases of the economic and market cycle.
For example, defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utility and health care stocks tend to outperform during a recessionary phase, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks tend to fare well during early expansions.
When you trade, you want the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors, which is why you should monitor sector performance carefully. With that said, lets determine the relative strength of the sectors relative to the S&P 500 ETF, SPY for the upcoming week.
Communication Services (XLC)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Energy (XLE)
Financials (XLF)
Health Care (XLV)
Industrials (XLI)
Materials (XLB)
Real Estate (XLRE)
Technology (XLK)
Utilities (XLU)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the SPDR sectors’ relative strength, relative to the SPY are the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
One of the good things about real estate (and there are many) is that the government generally creates incentives for investors and developers to provide housing in certain areas.
This is the case with the fairly new “opportunity zones” initiative that launched in December of 2017 with the tax cuts and jobs act legislation. Let’s discuss what the benefits are of investing in one of these areas.
Investing in Designated Opportunity Zones
By investing in opportunity zones you can save a bunch on capital gains taxes. Similar to a 1031, but with more flexibility, you only need to designate the gains from a property into the opportunity fund.
That money obviously needs to be used to invest in one of the many opportunity zones designated by the government entities. You can see a map of opportunity zones here.
Tax Benefits of Opportunity Zone Investing
A basis step-up for capital gains reinvested in an opportunity fund
A temporary deferral of taxable income for capital gains reinvested into an opportunity fund.
A permanent exclusion of capital gains if the investment is held for at least 10 years.
For us buy hold folks that last one is very enticing as normally you will hold a rental for atleast 10 years. Capital gains being excluded permanently sounds nice to me! It’s likely a 15% savings staying in my pocket!
Tax benefits are just one of the reasons rental properties are so awesome.
Some of the world’s currencies are accepted for most international transactions. The most popular currencies are accepted for most international transactions are the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the yen. However, the U.S. dollar is the most popular.
And in the foreign exchange market 90 of forex trading involves the U.S. dollar. Thus, when assessing the relative strength of the most popular currencies in the world, it’s always against the U.S. dollar, using the dailytime frame chart.
The “major” forex currency pairs are the major countries that are paired with the U.S. dollar (the nicknames of the majors are in parenthesis).
AUD/USD – Australia dollar (Aussie) vs. the U.S. dollar
EUR/USD – Euro vs. the U.S. dollar
GBP/USD – British pound (Sterling or Cable) vs. the U.S. dollar
NZD/USD – New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) vs. the U.S. dollar
USD/CAD – U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)
USD/CHF – U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)
USD/JPY – U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen (the Yen)
Based on the moving averages and the last daily closing price, relative to the moving averages,
the currency relative strength relative to the US dollar is the following:
Two Weeks Ago
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
In Elliott Wave terms, FuzeX began a wave one advance on June 18. The red wave one (blue sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v) finished on June 25, and the red wave two (blue sub-waves a-b-c) correction ended on July 31. If this wave count is correct, FuzeX should be heading next towards the June 25 peak in the red wave three.
I can’t believe it’s been a whole month since I last talked about Oil. However, just because I haven’t posted about oil sooner, didn’t mean I wasn’t following it. Quite frankly, it been pretty boring and in the middle of the curve (range). However lets recap from the last post.
So there was demand at $57.25,but the reason that demand failed was because the buyers couldn’t take out and close above the most recent supply. The chart suggests price is headed lower…to levels that I will be watching is the $53.80 level and the $51.96 level.
After Trump announced an additional 10% levy on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, oil fell more than 7% on Thursday. The reason why the move was so strong and the drop the worst in over several years was because hope quickly dwindled of a trade war agreement kick starting the global economy. But the catalyst for the momentum down was when Fed Powell cut interest rates, but said not to expect more. His language caused the US dollar to move higher and because oil is traded in US dollars around the world, oil started moving down due to it being an inversely correlated asset.
Although price dropped 7% on Thurs, oil prices closed up over 3% on Friday. So why did prices move higher, despite the equity markets moving lower. Lets zoom in on the $53.80 level that I have been monitoring for the last four weeks. Because price hit a daily demand zone at $53.80.
My personal target for oil is now $57.00. Lets see how things transpire next week.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
